Crawley Files: Storm to finish top as Knights, Titans in box seat to fill final two spots in top eight

Sure, the Broncos aren’t in the frame but that doesn’t mean there isn’t top eight hope elsewhere in the Sunshine State. Paul Crawley peers into the crystal ball to see how the 2021 finals shape up.

With the Olympics finished, the race for the NRL finals now takes centre stage.

So we’ve brought out the NRL ladder predictor to deliver our crystal ball predictions.

And what I see doesn’t look good for under-fire Parramatta coach Brad Arthur or Michael Maguire at Wests Tigers.

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Adam O'Brien and his Newcastle Knights look in pole position for the top eight.

Even though the top six appears pretty much settled going into round 22, I still reckon they’ll be shuffling positions, although Melbourne will stay on top.

But below that I have South Sydney leapfrogging Penrith and Manly jumping into fourth with the Roosters and Eels finishing fifth and sixth respectively.

Newcastle has a dream draw that should deliver Adam O’Brien’s team a rails run into seventh - and from there I think Kalyn Ponga could easily send Parra crashing out of the finals in week one.

But all up, eight clubs remain locked in a fight for those final two top eight spots.

I have Gold Coast, Cronulla and Canberra all finishing on 22 points in a three-way photo finish for eighth, with for and against determining who goes through.

That will leave the Dragons, Warriors and Tigers all finishing on 20 points to miss the cut.

Here’s my analysis for every team’s run home.

Is anyone going to catch the Storm?

STORM

Run home

R22: Raiders (W)

R23: Titans (W)

R24: Eels (W)

R25: Sharks (W)

Premiership odds: $2.20

Currently: 1st (38 points)

Predicted finish: 1st (46 points)

Possible week one finals opponent: Sea Eagles

Crawley says: Have won 17 straight, it will be a massive shock to see the Storm lose before the finals. That will take Craig Bellamy’s class of 2021 to an astonishing 21 consecutive wins, smashing Jack Gibson’s all-conquering 1975 Roosters who won a record 19 straight in the same season they ended up claiming back-to-back titles when led by the mighty Immortal, Arthur Beetson.

Damien Cook and the Rabbitohs are peaking at the right time.

RABBITOHS

Run home

R22: Titans (W)

R23: Panthers (W)

R24: Roosters (W)

R25: Dragons (W)

Premiership odds: $5.50

Currently: 3rd (36 points)

Predicted finish: 2nd (44 points)

Possible week one finals opponent: Panthers

Crawley says: Wayne Bennett looks to be timing the run perfectly with the Rabbitohs now winning nine straight since getting smashed 56-12 by the Panthers in late May. But that only makes the return clash in round 23 all the more significant, given Souths and the Panthers will probably be meeting again in week one of the finals. While finishing second or third only really matters for bragging rights (given there will most likely be no home ground advantage in the finals this year), the Bunnies still need to show they can match it with last year’s grand finalists after having 50 put on them by both the Panthers and Storm this season.

The return of Nathan Cleary can’t come soon enough for the Panthers.

PANTHERS

Run home

R22: Dragons (W)

R23: Rabbitohs (L)

R24: Tigers (W)

R25: Eels (W)

Premiership odds: $3.75

Currently: 2nd (36 points)

Predicted finish: 3rd (42 competition points)

Possible week one finals opponent: Rabbitohs

Crawley says: A good run home with two clashes against top four opposition and two easier games with teams currently outside the eight. But how Nathan Cleary’s injured shoulder holds up will ultimately determine if the Panthers can go one better than last year. I have them winning all bar the one. Brian To’o (ankle) will also be back for the finals

If Tom Trbojevic fires then Manly are in with a big premiership shout.

SEA EAGLES

Run home

R22: Eels (W)

R23: Raiders (W)

R24: Bulldogs (W)

R25: Cowboys (W)

Premiership odds: $10.00

Currently: 6th (26 points)

Predicted finish: 4th (34 points)

Possible week one finals opponent: Storm

Crawley says: After finishing 13th in 2020, I have them surging home for a top four finish. In fact, if the Sea Eagles beat Parra on Saturday, I reckon you can lock them in to take on Melbourne in week one of the finals. And after watching them go toe-to-toe with the Storm last weekend, I really believe Des Hasler has a genuine premiership threat providing Tom Trbojevic stays fit.

James Tedesco and the Roosters aren’t out of the battle for fourth place.

ROOSTERS

Run home

R22: Broncos (W)

R23: Dragons (W)

R24: Rabbitohs (L)

R25: Raiders (W)

Premiership odds: $15.00

Currently: 5th (28 points)

Predicted finish: 5th (34 points)

Possible week one finals opponent: Titans

Crawley says: This still has the potential to go down as one of the all-time inspirational efforts given the Roosters’ injuries this season. And let’s say they do take care of the games most expect they will win against the Broncos, Dragons and Raiders. That would mean if they can upstage their arch enemies, the Rabbitohs, in round 24, they would most likely edge out Manly and Parra to finish top four. That would be a hell of an achievement.

The Eels face a brutal final month.

EELS

Run home

R22: Sea Eagles (L)

R23: Cowboys (W)

R24: Storm (L)

R25: Panthers (L)

Premiership odds: $26.00

Currently: 4th (28 points)

Predicted finish: 6th (30 points)

Possible week one finals opponent: Knights

Crawley says: Have now slumped to three straight defeats and still to face three top six sides in Sea Eagles, Storm and Panthers. Throw in the fact that they won’t have their brilliant No 9 Reed Mahoney. I don’t want to say put a pen through Parra this far out, but I just can’t see them recovering. What that means for the coach’s future, I guess the Eels hierarchy will have a decision to make because I’m certain the premiership window has officially slammed shut.

The Knights will be hoping Kalyn Ponga continues his fine form.

KNIGHTS

Run home

R22: Sharks (W)

R23: Bulldogs (W)

R24: Titans (W)

R25: Broncos (W)

Premiership odds: $51

Currently: 9th (20 points)

Predicted finish: 7th (28 points)

Possible week one finals opponent: Eels

Crawley says: If they beat the stumbling Sharks on Sunday then the round 24 game against the Titans will probably determine if the Knights finish 7th. I reckon that’s where they’ll end up, playing Parra in week one of the finals. Off all the top six teams, that would be the one you’d want.

Can the Titans sneak into the final eight?

TITANS

Run home

R22: Rabbitohs (L)

R23: Storm (L)

R24: Knights (L)

R25: Warriors (W)

Premiership odds: $51.00

Currently: 7th (20 points)

Predicted finish: 8th (22 points)

Possible week one finals opponent: Roosters

Crawley says: Have won their last three but the run home doesn’t get much tougher than the Rabbitohs and Storm in the next two games. Justin Holbrook needs a bit of luck to hold off the Sharks and Raiders, but I think the Titans will do it, even though I only have them winning one remaining game against the Warriors in the last round. Ultimately it will come down to for and against, so every point scored and conceded for these three teams will be crucial.

Did the Sharks blow their finals chances last weekend?

SHARKS

Run home

R22: Knights (L)

R23: Tigers (W)

R24: Broncos (W)

R25: Storm (L)

Premiership odds: $126.00

Currently: 10th (18 points)

Predicted finish: 9th (22 points)

Crawley says: Losing Shaun Johnson has been a massive blow yet the Sharks remain a live chance with three very winnable games to come. Even so they should be kicking themselves for the effort they put in against the Warriors last weekend. If they miss the finals this year that will be the game that sunk them.

The Raiders face three of the top five in the final month.

RAIDERS

Run home

R22: Storm (L)

R23: Sea Eagles (L)

R24: Warriors (W)

R25: Roosters (L)

Premiership odds: $67.00

Currently: 8th (20 points)

Predicted finish: 10th (22 points)

Crawley says: Already on 20 points but Ricky Stuart’s Raiders have a really tough run home and probably still need to win two remaining games to be safe. I don’t see them beating the Storm and Sea Eagles but I’ll back them to topple the Warriors. That would mean their season would come down to the final round against the Roosters. While there’s no denying this has been an underwhelming season for Canberra, I still think people forget they lost two pretty significant spine members in Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (neck) and George Williams (released).

The Dragons are likely to finish outside the top eight.

DRAGONS

Run home

R22: Panthers (L)

R23: Roosters (L)

R24: Cowboys (W)

R25: Rabbitohs (L)

Premiership odds: $501.00

Currently: 11th (18 points)

Predicted finish: 11th (20 points)

Crawley says: Only on 18 points so would still need three wins to lock in 8th spot given the Dragons’ for and against. Now go back and have another look at their remaining games. It won’t happen. You’d be hoping the players all had fun at Paul Vaughan’s barbecue because they’ll be able to look back in years to come and remember that was the afternoon that cost them a finals spot.

Can Reece Walsh inspire a Warriors miracle?

WARRIORS

Run home

R22: Bulldogs (W)

R23: Broncos (W)

R24: Raiders (L)

R25: Titans (L)

Premiership odds: $501.00

Currently: 12th (16 points)

Predicted finish: 12th (20 points)

Crawley says: If Roger Tuivasa-Sheck didn’t take the early flight home, I would just about back the Warriors to stage the miracle finish. Even without him they could seriously make a fight of this going on the effort they put in against the Sharks and the games they have remaining, although they can’t really afford another loss.

The Tigers need a lot of things to go their way if they are to make the finals.

TIGERS

Run home

R22: Cowboys (W)

R23: Sharks (L)

R24: Panthers (L)

R25: Bulldogs (W)

Premiership odds: $501.00

Currently: 13th (16 points)

Predicted finish: 13th (20 points)

Crawley says: Also on 16 points so probably need to win all remaining games given their points differential. I just can’t see it happening, but just imagine if they could somehow beat the Cowboys and Sharks and then spring the upset against Ivan Cleary’s Panthers in round 24 to keep their hopes alive heading into the final round against the last-placed Bulldogs. It’s not impossible but I reckon they fall agonisingly short and miss the finals for the 10th straight season.

Jason Taumalolo has had a season to forget for the Cowboys.

COWBOYS

Run home

R22: Tigers (L)

R23: Eels (L)

R24: Dragons (L)

R25: Sea Eagles (L)

Premiership odds: N/A

Currently: 14th (14 points)

Predicted finish: 14th (14 points)

Crawley says: I’m just glad I didn’t put Jason Taumalolo in my SuperCoach team this year, but I can only imagine how disappointed Cowboys fans must feel. Has been a horrible year for a team I thought would challenge for the top eight after the promising things Todd Payten did with the Warriors last year.

There’s always next year for the Broncos.

BRONCOS

Run home

R22: Roosters (L)

R23: Warriors (L)

R24: Sharks (L)

R25: Knights (L)

Premiership odds: N/A

Currently: 15th (12 points)

Predicted finish: 15th (12 points)

Crawley says: I saw Kevvie Walters say after the loss to the Knights that if Kotoni Staggs had not missed most of the season through injury “I am pretty sure we are playing finals footy”. While Staggs’ is a weapon and his absence has obviously made things a lot tougher, there’s a few other teams who have had to overcome significant injuries. Let’s be real.

Can the Bulldogs end another dire season on a good note?

BULLDOGS

Run home

R22: Warriors (L)

R23: Knights (L)

R24: Sea Eagles (L)

R25: Tigers (L)

Premiership odds: N/A

Currently: 16th (6 points)

Predicted finish: 16th (6 points)

Crawley says: Finished 20 rounds last year on six points, which is exactly where they are right now. I don’t have them winning another game before the end of the season, but they have bought extremely well with the likes of Matt Burton and Josh Addo-Carr arriving next year.