Campo’s Corner: Week One finals preview, raw and uncut
It’s the most wonderful time of the year and with the first week of the finals upon us Campo’s Corner is previewing each of the week one finals matches.
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There’s some old carol which says Christmas is the most wonderful time of the year, but I’m here to tell you that’s a dirty, godless lie because it doesn’t get any better than the first week of the finals.
All the weeks of the finals are excellent in their own way, but there’s something special about the very first one. Three days, four games, the stakes have never been higher, the sunshine has never been brighter, the air has never been clearer.
This isn’t just footy going on here, this is pure, uncut finals footy cordial and I am swigging it right from the jug.
Because this is the time of year when giving the extra mile isn’t just expected but required, Campo’s Corner will be going biweekly for the rest of the finals series, with columns dropping on Monday and Thursday afternoons. Now let’s sink our teeth into this prime steak of a weekend, letting the blood drip down our chin, by taking a look at each of this weekend’s matches, and where they’ll be won and lost.
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Roosters vs Souths
Personally, I’m a huge fan of the “played in Round 25, rematch a week later” type of showdown for reasons unclear even to me. This match will mark the seventh time it’s happened in the NRL era. Three times the team that lost the first match has come back and won, three times it’s been a 2-0 sweep, so there’s even more on the line here than usual. The most memorable of these dual duels was in 2009, when the eighth placed Eels lost 39-0 to the minor premiership winning Dragons in Round 26 and rebounded to win 25-12 the very next week, down at Kogarah Oval as well if you don’t mind.
On to more important things — it’s difficult to know exactly how much to take out of last Thursday’s match. On another day the Roosters could have been up by 30 at halftime, such was their domination of the first half, and even though the Rabbitohs came back well in one of their best halves of the season, it came at a price. This was a tremendously torrid and physical match — John Sutton, Dane Gagai and Liam Knight all failed to finished with Gagai joining Sam Burgess on the sidelines this week.
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is the Roosters’ most important forward — not only is he one of their leading yardage men, he also gives them their steel and physicality on both sides of the ball and his inclusion is enough to turn me from slightly favouring the Roosters to tipping them confidently.
“The loss they had to have” is a cliche, but there is some merit to it — apart from their narrow win over the Raiders, the Roosters were rarely tested in their recent seven-match winning streak and Trent Robinson took the chance to rest many of his stars along the way.
As a result, the Roosters haven’t had their best team on the park in some time (in fact, if you include Jake Friend, the Chooks have only been at full strength once all season, in the season opener which, guess what, was against Souths). Either this means they’ll be a bit rusty due to lack of playing time or, more terrifyingly, they’ll be rested and refreshed and ready to destroy everything in their path.
Souths haven’t quite regained their pre-Origin form but they have won three straight heading in and the comeback over the Roosters may have been the start of something. As ever, their best attacking weapon is their speed through the middle, specifically via Damien Cook and Cody Walker. Cook was far from dominant against the Roosters but one dart from dummy half, in the lead up to the Walker try, changed the game entirely.
For Souths to win this they need Cook to be involved as much as possible, and for that to happen they need to win the ruck. Given the Roosters strength defensively that’s a tough ask, given Burgess’ absence it’s even tougher. Souths are still ably served by the likes of Knight, Tevita Tatola and Cam Murray, who may have surpassed Burgess as the team’s best forward, plus they don’t rely on the Englishman quite so much as they once did, but it’s still a big out purely because Burgess’ presence elevates the Souths forward pack from above average to top level.
Much has been made of the Roosters imposing attacking record at the SCG but it’s something of an empty stat — they’ve only played two top eight teams at the ground all year and lost one of those games.
I favour the Roosters, but it won’t be easy and if Souths repeat their effort from last week they could
Sydney Roosters 22 South Sydney 14
First try scorer: James Roberts’ defence hasn’t been all it could be since joining Souths and the Roosters love going left early, so look for Latrell Mitchell and Boyd Cordner.
Man of the match: Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
Storm vs Raiders
Canberra come into this match after a rough loss to the Warriors, and while we shouldn’t be predicting doom and gloom given the key Raiders who were out, it did confirm yet again the biggest issue the Green Machine faces heading into the finals.
The Raiders have come so far since the start of the season but there’s still some rough edges in their game, edges they may never fully sand away.
As listless as they were at times against the Warriors, they very likely would have won were it not for a truly horrendous error total, several of which came in the attacking quarter, as well as some truly mindless penalties, which all seemed to come late in the tackle count.
On their own merits, Canberra can stand with any team in the competition — it’s when they make things too hard for themselves they can fall down.
This is exactly what happened against the Storm in Round 22, for the first half at least. Melbourne raced out to an 18-0 lead on the back of Canberra’s own mishaps as everything that could have gone wrong for the Raiders did. Things steadied and Canberra ended up securing one of the greatest wins in their history, but they cannot allow the Storm such a start again, ‘cause they won’t be run down twice.
Melbourne have the best defence in the competition by some way — on average, they usually concede just 12 points a game. The Round 22 match was one of only three times this year they’ve conceded more than 20 points.
The Raiders are a good attacking side (they’re fourth in the league in points scored) but their tries don’t usually come through good attacking formation but rather through individuals making plays — think a John Bateman offload, a Josh Papalii run, or a well-time Josh Hodgson kick. Could a more unorthodox, looser approach be the way to break Melbourne down? Possibly, but it’s still a tough wall to break down.
For the Raiders to win they need Joey Leilua to fire, a risky proposition given how little he’s played this year, but any extra creativity he can provide will be invaluable, and they need to create off the back of offloads. Canberra lead the league in dummy half runs, they’re second in dummy half runs and they’re last, by some distance, in general play passes. Broken play is where they do their best work.
We know what we’re getting from Melbourne, and even though the Jahrome Hughes switch is still working out the kinks, the addition of Ryan Papenhuyzen to the starting side makes them even more dynamic and dangerous. Their left edge of Cameron Munster, Kenny Bromwich, Justin Olam and Josh Addo-Carr is among the most lethal in the competition and they’ll match up with Canberra’s right, where Leilua lurks. If the Samoan international is underdone or off his game defensively (and he can be found out with his decision making at the best of times) it could be a long night.
It’s hard to tip against Melbourne, but Canberra can absolutely win this game, the Raiders have been proving me wrong all year and if you don’t tip your team in a semi-final you’re a goddamn coward.
Canberra 14 Melbourne 12
First try scorer: I like Kenny Bromwich here, Canberra’s right-side defence can be vulnerable.
Man of the match: Cameron Smith
Sea Eagles vs Sharks
Two teams on contrasting paths meet with Cronulla seemingly everyone’s premiership smokie while Manly stumble towards the finish line as their body parts fall off one by one. Had the Sea Eagles not lost Martin Taupau to suspension I would give them every chance of upsetting the Sharks. Brendan Elliot has done a serviceable job at fullback this season and Manly did beat Cronulla 24-14 earlier this year without Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans on the back of some hardcore forward domination.
But without Taupau, and the offloads and metres he generates, it’s hard to tip the Sea Eagles given they’ve also lost Curtis Sironen, who had become Cherry-Evans’ favourite hole-runner, as well as Joel Thompson and Taniela Paseka. There’s still quality players here and they won’t lay down and die by any means, but if they were to score the upset it would be the latest in a growing list of wondrous coaching feats from Des Hasler this season.
Points will be the issue for Manly and Cronulla have improved defensively in recent weeks — they haven’t conceded more than 16 points in the last month. Jake Trbojevic’s attacking impact hasn’t been as big a part of their game this year and Dylan Walker is not known as a creator at the best of times, accruing just four try assists in 15 matches this year.
Much will fall on Daly Cherry-Evans and Manase Fainu, and Addin Fonua-Blake will need to have one of his best games of the season to lead the way against the Cronulla pack. The Tongan international has had a superb year, but even his best may not be good enough. What may help the Sea Eagles cause is Cronulla’s tendency to control the ruck — the Sharks are the best wrestlers in the competition but a slower tempo game could well work into Manly’s hands.
Let me get this on the record now — I think Tony Williams is going to play. Sean Keppie was impressive in his first grade debut last week but pitching him in as a starter in a semi-final with 10 minutes of first grade under his belt would be Hasler’s wildest move yet. Likewise, Haumole Olakau’atu will be on debut, if he plays at all, and Toafofoa Sipley hasn’t played since Round 9. Williams has been playing prop for Blacktown in the NSW Cup and the ancient powers of #BigManSeason demand his inclusion. Give me the big unit stomping around the yard like it’s the late Cretaceous period or give me death.
I’m not quite as enamoured with Cronulla as some, but of all the teams in the bottom half of the eight they’re the best equipped to go on a run. Andrew Fifita doesn’t look fully fit but the strength of the Sharks is the depth of their forward pack — Braden Hamlin-Uele and Jack Williams give Cronulla one of the best benches in the competition and they should be able to get the best of the middle.
Shaun Johnson has endured a tough season due to injury but there were some good signs against the Tigers and his combination with Briton Nikora and Josh Morris has been strong all year. On the left, Bronson Xerri could have a field day against Moses Suli, whose sluggish lateral movement could be exploited. If Matt Moylan plays and allows the Sharks to be a bit more expansive they could really trouble Manly out wide.
I like the Sharks to pull away but Manly won’t hand it to them, and finding their best footy across 80 minutes has been Cronulla’s weakness all year. They’ll also have to overcome a truly disgusting record at Brookvale Oval — in 48 matches there they’ve won just six times.
Cronulla 28 Manly 10
First tryscorer: Xerri, because of the aforementioned match-up with Suli.
Man of the match: Wade Graham
Eels vs Broncos
This shapes as the most straightforward game of the weekend and the one I’m most confident of predicting. Here’s some stats for you to consider.
*Parramatta are 8-2 at Bankwest Stadium this year. They average 26.9 points a game at their new home.
*Brisbane have played nine games outside Queensland this year, losing seven and winning two. Their 24-22 win over Cronulla in Round 16 was their only win in New South Wales this year.
*In those nine losses Brisbane scored 20 points or more once.
The form and the track suggest an Eels win. The blue and golds aren’t without their own issues (their reliance on kicks to score tries can hurt them when it matters most) but they should have the firepower and the muscle to get this done. Maika Sivo is growing in confidence by the week, Manu Ma’u is playing the best football of his career and Moses has struck up a fine combination with Dylan Brown.
Brisbane are formidable at Suncorp, where they beat Parramatta in golden point two weeks ago, but their problems on the road are endemic of wider issues. This Broncos side is not a good team, but they have several good players who have carried them for much of the season. The efforts of Payne Haas, Kotoni Staggs and David Fifita alone are enough to make them competitive, but there’s just not enough else there.
The heart of the matter is the spine. Brisbane are last in the league for try assists, last in line engagements but first in tackle busts. That tells us their attack is a similar version of Canberra’s, just not as effective and without the defensive steel to back it up. The Broncos rely on individual brilliance more than any team in the competition and as brilliant as their individuals may be, there comes a point where that’s not enough.
Jake Turpin is an energetic and cunning customer, but he’s a hooker (potentially a very good one at that) and not a halfback. Darius Boyd is copping them from all over the place but at least when he was at fullback the attack flowed a little better — since his move to five-eighth the once formidable left edge has become atrophied with the loss of Anthony Milford, who is essentially playing two positions and isn’t doing a bad job, but there’s just not enough support.
All signs point to Parra, and they’re my pick of the week.
Parramatta 32 Brisbane 10
First try scorer: Kotoni Staggs and Jamayne Isaako have struggled defensively for much of the year, so Maika Sivo is the pick.
Man of the match: Mitchell Moses
Season review season
Wests Tigers — There are ninth placed finishes and there are ninth placed finishes and this effort from the Tigers was definitely the latter.
They might have fallen short against the Sharks but they’re one of the league’s overachievers this year and what Michael Maguire is building feels far more substantial than some of the ninth placed finishes of the past.
Luke Brooks continued to take some big steps forward and in the likes of Alex Twal, Luke Garner and Josh Aloiai continued to improve while Thomas Mikaele could be a 10-year player for the club.
Ryan Matterson was one of the buys of the season and the Benji Marshall comeback continued unabated. There's a chance some serious cap space opens up over the summer and with a couple of the right moves, the Tigers could easily be a finals team in 2020.
Golden Hombre
Is there anything more thrilling than when a big man gets into the clear and attempts an ill-advised dummy, or perhaps a chip kick?
Is there anything greater than when a large lad decides the time has come for him to show the world the ball skills he knows lurk deep within?
Is there anything that lifts the spirit more than a hefty fellow crashing across the stripe for his second NRL try in his 179th first grade match?
I say no, and to honour these big fellas each and every week of the year, which many have dubbed #BigManSeason, we hand out The Golden Hombre, named after Todd Payten, the biggest halfback God ever created.
In perhaps the most controversial Hombre of the season, takes it for his field goal against the Sharks. Gallen’s kick certainly wasn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but a one-pointer in game 348 from a lock forward? That’s what the Golden Hombre is all about. Gallen joins the likes of Nathan Cayless, Ian Hindmarsh, Dallas Donelly and Mark Carroll as big units who knocked over one-pointers.