Looming showdowns with top four sides will decide Brisbane’s fate for 2018
WITH two showdowns with top four sides looming and their own place in the top eight looking decidedly shaky, we’re about to find out what Brisbane are made of writes DARREN LOCKYER.
Broncos
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THE next fortnight is make-or-break for the Broncos. Clashes against South Sydney and the Sydney Roosters, two heavyweights certain to feature in the top four, will put Brisbane’s will-to-win and defensive heart under the microscope.
From what I have seen so far this season, I believe Souths are the team to beat for the premiership.
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On current form, critics are entitled to write-off the Broncos, a scepticism fuelled by worrying back-to-back defeats to the embattled Bulldogs and Cowboys, two teams who won’t feature in this year’s playoffs.
Broncos halves Anthony Milford and Kodi Nikorima have come in for criticism following Thursday night’s loss to the Cowboys, but I don’t believe Brisbane’s scrumbase — or their offence — is the problem.
The real issue lies in the facet of the game that best shines a forensic torch on the soul of a team — defence.
As it stands, Brisbane have the worst defensive record of the top-eight teams. They have leaked 458 points at almost 22 per game.
Statistically, big guns Souths, the Roosters and Melbourne are defensively 20 per cent better than the Broncos heading into the finals.
Defence is attitude. Teams do not win premierships with a fragile mindset in defence. Look at the Storm. Or Manly in the 1990s. Or the Dogs of War way back in the 1980s. History shows teams that display a ruthless commitment without the ball are invariably there at the big dance.
Alarm bells are ringing for the Broncos. In the past fortnight, they have haemorraghed 70 points against teams with no hope of making the top eight.
The Rabbitohs will test the defensive soul of the Broncos this Thursday night. If they don’t respond, South Sydney will run riot.
This Broncos team plays their best football when they aren’t behind on the scoreboard. Some outfits can hold their nerve when chasing points. The best way for the Broncos to score points is to avoid chasing them.
Watching Brisbane’s defensive structures against the Cowboys, I detected some technical flaws and erratic individual behaviours when reading situations.
I saw Broncos rushing up and getting in front of their inside men, which leaves them vulnerable on the edges.
The Gavin Cooper try in the 66th minute, which ignited the Cowboys’ comeback at 30-28, was soft. Nikorima, a smaller man, was left isolated one-on-one with Cooper and that was a by-product of a breakdown in their defensive system.
When a team gets its defence in order, it’s quite powerful the flow-on effect it can have in attack.
In terms of self-belief, the next two weeks is massive for the Broncos. They have blown an opportunity to finish in the top four. There would be some doubts creeping in for Broncos players, but a defeat of the Rabbitohs or Roosters will provide a huge psychological boost.
The evolution of Souths this season has been impressive to watch and the Broncos can take lessons from their energy.
Their new coach, Anthony Seibold, has freshened the squad. Different voice. Different methods. They have simplified what they are doing. The big Burgess boys have removed the type of unforced mistakes that cruelled them in the past.
In attack, I like the depth at which Souths are playing and their halves, Cody Walker and Adam Reynolds, have found the chemistry between direction and opportunism that Milford and Nikorima are still seeking.
The Broncos have the scoring punch to go try-for-try with the Rabbitohs, but a gutsy win in a slugfest would be more impressive. That would tell me the Broncos are prepared to pay the price in defence for the ultimate prize.