We rate the premium, mid-priced and bargain bin second-rowers for KFC NRL SuperCoach 2020
Second-row forwards are the engine room of your SuperCoach side so it is crucial you get this pick right to start the season. Rob Sutherland rates the contenders at the position.
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Which premium priced picks are worth the early salaray cap hit? Which mid-range performers are poised to join the premium ranks and are there any bargain bin buys set to rise? Rob Sutherland runs the rule over leading second row forward contenders
If you have a sneaky POD, think we got our analysis wrong - or much more rarely - right, then let us know in the comments below and let the SuperCoach banter begin.
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* Please note that I have not considered the merits of any cheapies in this article as those are covered in our Cheapie Bible hereAND I have inserted a glossary of abbreviatons used throughout the article at the bottom.
PREMIUM $550K+
Jason Taumalolo 2RF ($723,400)
The Tongan wrecking ball averaged a phenomenal 78PPG in 2019 and if you remove his injury affected round two effort that lifts to 80PPG. Taumalolo pumped out better than 56PPG in base and around that he added almost 20PPG in tackle busts, offloads and linebreaks. Easy enough then to see how he managed to exceed 60PPG in a position-best 83% of games. Injury limited ‘Lolo’ to just 18 games in 2019 and he scored 85+ in exactly half of those games. In short, he’s the best 2RF in SuperCoach. And that’s exactly where he is priced, the high cost will likely scare plenty of prospective owners away so Taumalolo could start as something of a POD in 2020.
John Bateman 2RF ($668,200)
Available as a CTW/2RF dual in 2019 sadly John Bateman is only available at 2RF in 2020. But what a second-rower he is, Bateman played 20 games last year, playing every minute of those games other than in round eight when he broke his cheekbone in the 26th minute. Relentless in defence, Bateman averaged 32 tackles per game and his shifty feet saw him break 64 tackles (the third most of any 2RF in 2019). Bateman was ultra-consistent in 2019 scoring better than 60PPG in 75% of games played and don’t let his lack of dual-position eligibility put you off building your squad around him in 2020.
Cameron Murray 2RF ($644,900)
The young South Sydney backrower was widely tipped to be the mid-priced purchase of the year heading into round one 2019 but only the most optimistic supporter would have expected him to finish the season with the second most points and fourth best average of any 2RF. My problem is I do not believe the output is sustainable. Murray averaged 11 minutes per game more in 2019 than he had in 2018 and yet his PPM increased from 1.02 in 2018 to 1.17 in 2019. Significantly Murray’s BPPM did not increase at the same time, in fact it decreased (0.89 in 2018 to 0.85 in 2019). Where Murray went from good to great in 2019 was tries, crossing the line 10 times. I anticipate some regression in Murray’s attacking stats and think you can find better value elsewhere at the position.
Ryan Matterson 2RF ($626,200)
The top scoring 2RF in 2019, Matterson achieved the feat by playing every game in the season and maintaining the fifth best base point average of any 2RF across those 24 games. Matterson was so consistent that he is the only player in this article who scored 50 points or better in every game (though to be fair Jason Taumalolo only failed to reach that mark once and he was injured in that game). Around his big base Matterson offers solid if unspectacular attacking stats contributing in multiple categories without excelling in any. The former Tiger has changed clubs in the off-season and will line up for the Eels in 2020 and he should slot straight in for 80 minutes on the edge replacing the departed Manu Ma’u. There are few knocks on Matterson other than his steep entry price.
James Fisher-Harris 2RF/FRF ($615,700)
Fisher-Harris was asked to play big minutes last year (averaging 77 MPG which was an increase of almost 20MPG on 2018) and he did so moving between lock, prop and second row. Wherever he was asked to play he dug in making more tackles in 2019 than any other front rower and the fifth most of any player. JFH also has a sneakily effective offload game and doesn’t shy away from a hit-up. Lock is his preferred position and barring injuries he should play 80 minutes there each week for the Panthers. Last year JFH averaged 68.9PPG at lock. He’s no bargain but you’ve got to pay for quality.
We also talk about JFH in our front row position breakdown here
Kenny Bromwich 2RF ($594,800)
The Melbourne Storm asked Kenny Bromwich to play a significantly different role in 2019 from that he had in previous years and the Kiwi international stepped up and did so with aplomb. Rather than playing as an interchange impact weapon averaging 39MPG in 2018, Bromwich became an 80-minute edge backrower in 2019. KBrom added a new attacking dimension to his game too recording 12 try assists and 11 linebreak assists – position leading numbers in both categories. And therein lies the rub, attacking stats like that are likely unsustainable so just as I anticipate some regression for Cam Murray I expect the same for Bromwich. Buyer beware.
Jake Trbojevic 2RF ($583,900)
A player I’m backing to make progress rather than regress provided he comes back from off-season injury in time top get a good preparation in is Manly star Jake Trbojevic. The Manly workhorse made a (personal) record number of tackles last year, but his attacking stats fell away. In 2018 ‘Jurbo’ scored seven tries, had 13 offloads, six linebreaks and five linebreak assists whereas in 2019 he scored two tries, had six offloads, just one linebreak and two linebreak assists. History suggests Trbojevic should lift his attacking stats, of bigger concern is whether he is ready to roll by round one. The Kangaroos lock underwent a shoulder reconstruction in November and was given a return date a few weeks into the 2020 season. Early in January 2020 Trbojevic said he was pushing to return by round one – but admitted it may not happen.
Mitch Barnett 2RF ($578,000)
Newcastle second-rower Mitch Barnett rode some healthy attacking stats to the fringe of SuperCoach relevancy in the early to middle stages of 2019 and then finished with a flurry of tries to average 73PPG from round 19-25. Provided Barnett locks in 80 minutes on an edge for the Knights I expect he will again fall just short of the top-tier of 2RF and at the price I would be more interested in the man just below him on this list.
Jai Arrow 2RF ($575,700)
Last year was a bit of a mongrel for Jai Arrow with injuries restricting him to just 17 games and limiting his time on ground in four of those games he did play. His off-season was no less rocky with the gun backrower signing to join the Rabbitohs in 2021 with the Rabbitohs working hard to get him wearing the cardinal and myrtle for 2020 too. The early transfer has fallen through and Arrow looks locked in to play 60-65MPG at lock for the Titans this year - and if that happens you will be getting him cheap to start the season. When he did play 55+ minutes at lock across 2018/2019 Arrow averaged 84.5PPG. Now I’m not suggesting Arrow will hit those heady heights over a full season, but he does have an exceptionally SC friendly game when fit capable of producing 50PPG in base and augments that with plenty of offloads and tackle busts. If fit I expect him to be one of the top-three scoring players at his position and you would be getting him at a $50-60K discount to that production to start the season.
MID-PRICERS $550K-$400K
Viliame Kikau 2RF ($543,200)
Big Bill Kiks has flirted with being a top-five 2RF over 2018-19 without every quite getting there. Kikau is not a base stat monster averaging 40PPG in base in 2019 while playing 72MPG. Rather, Kikau does his damage with a brutal fend and keen eye for the try line and as a result he is as likely to score 70 as he is 40 in any given game and I prefer others.
Tevita Pangai 2RF/FRF ($540,600)
I covered Pangai in our preview of the Front Row position here.
Luke Garner 2RF ($535,000)
Wests Tigers second-rower Luke Garner finished 2019 on a roll scoring a try in each of the last four games and as a result he starts 2020 overpriced for mine. Garner led the position for ratio of tackles busted to runs made (37%) and, with no offence intended, that’s just not going to happen again so a regression in tackle bust and linebreak numbers is all but inevitable.
Jazz Tevaga 2RF/HOK ($530,600)
I covered Tevaga in our preview of the hooker position here.
Angus Crichton 2RF ($530,100)
The mighty Angus joined the Roosters in 2019 and while the move delivered a premiership for the Young Cherrypickers junior it took its toll on his SuperCoach output with a drop in average minutes per game (69 in 2019 as compared to 79 in 2018) and points (57PPG as compared to 69PPG). Crichton still scored well when playing the full 80 minutes, averaging 63PPG when playing the full game over the course of the season and tellingly 71PPG in the final six rounds of the regular season. Comes with a fair bit of risk simply because of the stacked Roosters pack but if Crichton can return to being an 80-minute player across the season he’ll quickly return to elite status.
Nat Butcher 2RF ($522,800)
If Nat Butcher were at a less well stocked club than the Roosters he would be a regular starter and a very SuperCoach relevant player. But he’s not and until he can lock in starter’s minutes he’s a reluctant pass. For reference, Butcher averaged 69PPG in the nine games he played 50+ minutes and his BPPM (0.92) was the second best of any player with 1000+ points (beaten only by David Klemmer’s 0.98). So to repeat, a pass for now but should injuries strike at the Roosters freeing up big minutes for Butcher on a regular basis then he should definitely be on your radar.
David Fifita 2RF ($501,900)
From round 18 onwards Fifita became an 80-minute player (82 thanks to overtime in round 24) and in that eight game span he busted out two tonnes and averaged 77PPG (42PPG in base and 14.5PPG in tackle busts!). Thanks to his reduced minutes off the bench over the first half of 2019, Fifita will be available for a significant discount on his 80-minute average and I consider him a mid-priced pick the will quickly move into the Premium category.
Victor Radley HOK/2RF ($481,300)
I covered Radley in our preview of the Hooker position here – and would add that while he lacks appeal at that position due to the small number of hookers you can select that he makes much more appeal at 2RF.
Matt Eisenhuth 2RF/FRF ($458,500)
A dual position (FRF/2RF) workhorse who averaged 60PPG in the 18 games he played 60+ minutes across the 2018/19 seasons and with the Tigers scrambling to fill several positions if he finally locks down big minutes then he’s a solid pick-up who can do you a job through the first half of the season and make you a decent profit while doing so.
Shane Wright 2RF ($443,300)
A bit of a smoky here, Wright averaged 55.9 in his 10 starts over the final 10 rounds of 2019 – and that average is marred by a low score of 22 when he was shifted to the centres early in the round 19 match against the Sharks. However, Wright is priced at a $70K discount to that average as he played four games of limited minutes off the bench from rounds 11-14 (inclusive). I am seriously considering fitting Wright in to my squad as I think he offers excellent value for dollar with a solid base and money to be made.
Luciano Leilua 2RF ($434,300)
Leilua punched out a PPM of 1.13 which was enough to rate him 16th of those players who scored a minimum of 1,000 points in 2019. The points, and PPM, did not drop off when Leilua was required to play big minutes; in the seven games he played 50+ minutes, Leilua averaged 63.1MPG and 63.7 PPM. Those numbers compare very favourably with the likes of David Klemmer (61 MPG & 66 PPG) and Tevita Pangai Junior (60MPG and 58PPG) – though I hasten to add those are season long outputs not just seven games as per Leilua. Having moved to the Tigers for 2020, Leilua has a decent chance of making an edge his own this season, and should he do so then he looms as a mid-ranger with big upside.
Trent Merrin 2RF/FRF ($408,000)
The hardest player in this list to rate is Trent Merrin who is returning to the NRL and the Dragons, from a one-year stint in the UK Super League. Merrin put up impressive stats in the UK playing 27 games, averaging 108 metres and 33 tackles per games, scoring four tries, 86 tackle busts and 60 offloads. If he could bring those numbers to Australia he would average 65+PPG. However, I think it highly unlikely Merrin plays similar minutes in Australia. I cannot see Merrin ousting either of the St George starting props James Graham or Paul Vaughan which leaves him battling Blake Lawrie for the No. 13 jersey or filling a spot on the bench and playing minutes through the middle. Pre-season trials are crucial here; Merrin has a very good offload game and can play big minutes, if they look to be coming then he will exceed the price at which he has been set. That’s a big ‘if’ though.
BARGAIN BIN $400K-$300K
Jack Williams 2RF ($397,200)
The departure of Paul Gallen leaves a big hole (a 49MPG hole to be precise) at the Sharks and Jack Williams appears to be the frontrunner to wear the number 13 jersey when Cronulla run out to play the Rabbitohs in round one of 2020. Williams drew one start at lock in 2019 and scored 89 points in 49 minutes of play. Full disclosure: that score included a try and linebreak and so is not a fair guide to any expected output. What is a good guide however, is that Williams scored at a respectable 1.14PPM, and very respectable 0.97BPPM across 2019. Priced at his average of 43PPG from 2019, it seems reasonable to expect Williams to produce around 10PPG better than that should he earn the majority of the minutes left behind by Gallen and should he do so he will quickly add $100K to his price tag.
Joseph Tapine 2RF ($362,400)
One of the harder players to draw a line through, Tapine could either be a bargain buy or a bit of a bust in 2020. In 2019 injury limited Tapine to just 14 games in the regular season including nine starts at lock (the position he is expected to fill in 2020) a position in which he averaged 48.2PPG in 46.9MPG. Whether in the middle or on an edge Tapine has never been a workhorse but he can score well thanks to his penchant for breaking tackles and offloading. A case can be made for picking him at the price and the reward could be generous for those willing to take the risk.
Jaydn Su’A 2RF ($303,600)
The Rabbitohs have lost two big minute backrow stars from 2019 with the departure of John Sutton (24 games averaging 63MPG) and Sam Burgess (17 games averaging 70MPG) and Jaydn Su’A appears poised to fill one of those gaps. Across 2018/19 Su’A made 14 starts averaging 49.9PPG in 67.7MPG. Now those are not outstanding numbers, but they are very good for his price and should he replicate them then he would quickly add $150K while delivering you a pretty safe return. Definitely on my radar.
PPG: Points Per Game
MPG: Minutes Per Game
PPM: Points Per Minute – a useful indication of workrate particularly relevant to forwards (as most backs play the full 80 minutes) as a player with a good PPM who is set to see an increase in MPG could see a big increase in PPG.
Base Points: Base points are those earned in hit-ups plus tackles (some statisticians subtract points lost for missed tackles when calculating this). They are valued by SuperCoaches as it is considered a reliable guide to future output unlike attacking stats which except for the truly exceptional are far less reliable.
BPPM: Base Points Per Minute
POD: Point Of Difference
CHECK OUT MORE EXPERT KFC SUPERCOACH NRL ANALYSIS