Trent Copeland: NRL SuperCoach Cheapie Bible Round 11

Cheapies are the keys to SuperCoach success, and Trent Copeland has dug deep into the stats vault to identify cut-price money makers who will make you cash AND help you in the first bye.

It’s Papenhuyzen season! Or is it …?

SuperCoaches who jumped on the Storm fullback sensation with his massive negative BE last week were rewarded with a season-high single week price rise, yep, higher than Nikora, Waddell, Okunbor etc. But, with the well documented Storm depth it looks as though ‘Pap’ may lose that spot to incumbent Jahrome Hughes — moving back to the bench. Ah, the highs and lows of SuperCoach!

A quick mention for Dylan Walker, priced at just a tick over the $300k mark (out of Cheapie Bible range) and returning with a bang — scoring a try and passing the 50-point mark. One to watch for round 12 coverage.

NRL SuperCoach Cheapie Bible Round 11.

Cheapies are the keys to SuperCoach success, and each week I will have your verdict on the most popular and relevant names under the $280k bracket. Once a player eclipses that price we shall say bon voyage with a final verdict.

We’re looking at minutes played, relevant injuries, torrential rain affected scores and an outlook of the prospects moving forward.

Settle in for a HUGE edition of the Cheapie Bible. Here we go …

Carnage has once again riddled NRL SuperCoach sides in Round 11, with a popular cash cow set to miss the all important Round 12 bye. Join Rob Sutherland and Tim Williams for the lowdown.

Ryan Papenhuyzen FLB (MEL | $380,500) — 87 points

PAPENHUYZEN! How could we not start here … Backing up his monster 119 points last week, the incredibly talented fullback notched a further 87 points with a try to register the largest single-week price rise of ANY player in SuperCoach in 2019 — $121,600! Huge. Even more incredible given he played off the bench as recently as last week! ‘Pap’ now sits with a BE of -72 and projected rise of $75,000 even with a score of just 30 points this week against the BULLDOGS! Wow. What a dream for owners.

VERDICT: HOLD/AVOID — This was the perfect scenario for the 7% of teams who jumped on, hold at least this week and depending on how the final 17 pans out this week — he could be a hold through to round 17. If you didn’t get on last week, you simply can’t do it now.

Patrick Herbert CTW (NZL | $276,300) — 96 points

Herbie! What a game from the youngster playing at right centre, scoring another try, a massive 28 points in goals, SIXTEEN points in tackle busts, two linebreaks and 10 tackles — totalling 96 points and a $73,900 price rise. Now, Herbie comes into ‘BUY’ calculations this week by way of Jayden Okunbor’s shock Lisfranc injury (ruling him out for 4-6 weeks), meaning owner could make around $120k plus jump on the Warriors youngster with a BE of -22. Just remember that the Warriors have the bye next week!

VERDICT: BUY/HOLD — The lack of round 12 coverage hurts, but Herbie could top out at $400k come round 16. Go you good thing.

Liam Martin 2RF (PTH | $261,300) — 58 points

Two scores above 55 points in consecutive games for Martin, this time scoring a try — but importantly, only saw 44 minutes of game time. While the BE of -21 is enticing, as well as the likely coverage of round 12 there are some real red flags here. Those minutes are definitely a concern, as is the benching in favour of Frank Winterstein as well as the elevated price of $261k this week meaning you’re taking some risks if you do jump on at this point. If you have the stomach for that risk then it could pay off like a Hudson Young-lite.

VERDICT: AVOID — Yep, there’s definitely a scenario where this pans out really well, but with the return of RCG and JFH’s move back to the middle full-time I’m calling a steer clear.

Jesse Arthars CTW | FLB (GCT | $168,100) — 36 points

Arthurs is flying well and truly under the radar this weekend, as a BASE price starting outside back in a team playing next weekend’s all-important round 12 bye bonanza. Yes, his scores haven’t been eye-catching (21 and 36 points so far), but SuperCoaches may not be aware that the first of those games was from the bench, and last week he displaced Tyrone Peachey in the starting centre spot playing the full 80 minutes with 16 tackles, four points in tackle busts and 16 points in hit ups. The only concern would be Michael Gordon returning to fullback, pushing Brimson to the bench utility role and Peachey back in the starting centre role. But, I think Arthars stays on merit.

VERDICT: BUY — Sneaky buy of the week for the Cheapie Bible.

Jake Turpin HOK (BRO | $168,100) — 32 points

Man, this kid aims UP! Pulling off some huge hits in defence and upping the tempo of the Broncos forward pack against a very good Roosters side bodes well for his future. But, in the same game Seggy (James Segeyaro) debuted for Brisbane, scored a winning try and generally looked like he can be a difference maker for them in Andrew McCullough’s absence. Notably, Seggy’s presence in the 17 brought Turpin’s minutes down from the full 80 last week, to a disappointing 51 in round 10.

VERDICT: AVOID. Not only do the Broncos miss next weekend with the bye, but that alarming minutes reduction plus McCullough’s return being not that far away, makes Turpin a no-go.

Maweni Hiroti CTW (STH | $181,100) — 64 points

A nice start for Hiroti, scoring a try and having two linebreaks in the process, with 18 points in hit ups and eight points in tackle busts to tally 64 points. The young speedster on the wing for one of the best attacking teams in the competition looks destined to be ‘on the bubble’ (about to rise in price) perfectly in time for round 12 for those that will jump on. DON’T be jumping this week however as lots can change in one week despite how locked in we all think he looks.

VERDICT: WATCHLIST.

Jai Field 5/8 | FLB (STG | $181,100) — 42 points

After a fantastic 2019-season debut where Field scored a try, he backed it up despite another loss for the Dragons as a whole. Field added the goalkicking duties this week which is exciting (if the Dragons can actually score points!), to go with 19 points in tackles, an offload, line break assist and 11 points in hit ups for his 42 points — hitting round 11 with a juicy BE of -30. Right, that’s the positives out of the way. Here are the negatives … A bloke named Corey Norman was touted to return this week, it didn’t eventuate, but what that tells us is that come round 13 after the Dragons have their bye, Field will NOT be playing in this team unless it’s at fullback. So, you can’t possibly jump on this week with that doubt.

VERDICT: AVOID — Keep an eye on injury news with Norman, or word that he will stay in the side post-bye, but he’s likely a pass.

Thomas Dearden HFB (BRO | $194,400) — 23 points

Unfortunately for the some 31,000 SuperCoach teams who call Dearden their own, the young half’s impressive NRL performances haven’t quite translated to huge points … yet. If Matt Gillett held on to a simple pass that hit his chest to put him through for what would’ve been the match-sealing try against the Roosters Dearden would have been looking at a 50-ish score and much bigger price rises.

VERDICT: BUY/HOLD — The BE of 6 isn’t as sexy as many other options this week, but, if you chose the double-gun option last week its certainly not too late. Will provide good cover of round 16 too.

Cade Cust HFB (MNL | $168,100) — 29 points

In the words of Tommy Turbo on the pre-game show … “Young Cade is not afraid of anyone, he will take the line on all game and he’s ready”. Well, the eyeball test watching this game says that Turbo was right, Cust had a great game alongside Kane Elgey, despite only scoring the 29 SuperCoach points. The issue here is that DCE’s eventual return will likely see Cust back to Canterbury Cup.

VERDICT: WATCH — It’s likely going to be an avoid, but you never know and with round 12 coverage coinciding with what would be his first price rise that’s a nice combo.

Bailey Simonsson FLB | CTW (CBR | $181,000) — 20 points

That didn’t go to plan now did it! A dour affair in freezing cold Canberra wasn’t the order of the day for Simonsson’s return to the starting wing slot for the Raiders — scoring just the 20 points and LOSING $1,500 if you can believe that. But, the positives are that the former Kiwi Sevens international has been named to start once again against the Cowboys this week and has a looming matchup with the leaky Bulldogs in round 12.

VERDICT: BUY/HOLD. Not for me, but Simonsson is a decent purchase despite the low scores just due to being bottom dollar with round 12 coverage, as a short term option that becomes a nuff/no AE-nightmare once Rapana returns.

Brian To’o CTW (PTH | $168,100) — 24 points

To’o has kept his place in the Panthers side, even with the return of Josh Mansour to the line-up, but switches from the right wing (where he played last week) to the left this time out. Given Mansour is traditionally a left edge player the switch is interesting, and one we should watch with interest given To’o could be a round 12 coverage player for us next week.

VERDICT: WATCHLIST.

Kotoni Staggs CTW | 2RF (BRO | $214,800) — 32 points

Ok, so if you haven’t read previous versions of the Cheapie Bible (What the hell have you been waiting for!), Staggs is an option now that he is the starting left centre in Jack Bird’s season long absence. Yes, the Broncos MISS round 12 with the bye, but play every game after that. Unfortunately with Isaako back Staggs ended up losing the kicking duties but that was just the cherry on top. We just need one more low score so his price doesn’t get too high! Prepare for a round 13 purchase to create cash for other moves.

VERDICT: AVOID. For now …

Gehamat Shibasaki CTW (BRO | $194,600) — 29 points

Moving into the centres in round 10 didn’t prove to be fruitful for Shibasaki, but that was somewhat to be expected against the reigning premiers and Latrell Mitchell specifically. Shibasaki has now had his 2-point dud on debut roll out of his price cycle, and sits with a BE of just 4 this week.

VERDICT: AVOID. If you’re still interested in round 13, he will likely still be just over $200k.

Aaron Gray CTW (SHA | $255,600) — 29 points

As stated in last week’s Cheapie Bible, Gray was always going to make money after his 90-point effort in round nine, but as his career averages suggested … without the two tries in that game, his scoring would suffer! Nevertheless, Gray made an initial $38,700 and sits with the fourth lowest BE of any player in SuperCoach this week. A great matchup on the horizon against the Dragons looms, but you simply can’t ignore the bye next week and impending return of Matt Moylan.

VERDICT: AVOID.

BON VOYAGE

Players who eclipse the $280k cheapie cut-off, or plateau in price will be given a final verdict for owners moving forward.

Hudson Young 2RF (CBR | $303,900) — 45 points

Uh oh. And I don’t mean his form, or the minutes, because they are sitting as BIG ticks through his first two weeks as an 80-minute player. The uh oh is referring to the return of Joe Tapine (MILES AHEAD OF SCHEDULE) on the Raiders bench this week. As I flagged from the outset in Young’s Cheapie Bible rants, Tapine, and John Bateman returning before round 12 were always the concern. Having made $135k already its certainly not all doom and gloom, but despite being named to start again, don’t be surprised if Young slips back to the bench or plays sub 50 minutes this week.

VERDICT: HOLD. With a BE of 7 and looming round 12 coverage the young back rower still has plenty to offer SuperCoaches, just not as a new purchase. Plan for a round 13 sell to Ryan Matterson or Tohu Harris.

Kyle Flanagan HFB | 5/8 (SHA | $311,200) — 55 points

While everyone was focused on CHT, Dylan Brown and most recently Tom Dearden, Flanagan was the pick of the litter! Averaging 55PPG across his most recent three matches with scores of 48, 62 and 55 points. Rising in price $100k and sitting with a -8 BE this weekend before the Sharks hit their bye. Flanno is a hold for one more week at least, maybe even through the bye if we get word SJ is out a little longer. A sideways move to Dylan Walker next week would be very tempting!

VERDICT: HOLD. Plan to sell next week.

If a player is not on this list, they are deemed not relevant either because of role or price. Let us know if you think we’ve missed anyone @SuperCoachNRL or @Copes9.

Let the cash roll in!