The SuperCoach winners and losers from the back end of the 2019 season

With byes almost behind us we rank every team’s strength of schedule for the run home and identify the SuperCoach winners and losers.

With the final bye round almost upon us and most teams starting to coalesce towards a final 20-22 I thought it would be useful to take a look at the strength of schedule (SOS) for each team for the run to the end of the season — and the potential SC winners and losers.

* Disclosure — I am by no measure statistically trained. Rather I’m just a curious guy trying to make sense of numbers. Where, not if, I’ve made errors or nonsensical deductions please point them out in the comments!

Which club has the best run home for the 2019 season?

METHODOLOGY

The nature of SuperCoach scoring is that workhorse forwards like Jake Trbojevic and Payne Haas will likely score well no matter their opposition, while outside backs, with their reliance on attacking stats, will feast on weak teams and have the occasional famine against strong teams.

At least that was my assumption coming into this article. And you know what they say about assumptions. So to paraphrase the great Ice Cube I thought it best to check myself before I wrecked myself (and I tip my hat to www.nrlsupercoachstats.com for crunching the numbers in the below tables).

2019 SC PPM allowed by position

Position	Most PPM	Least PPM	Difference
Hooker	0.87	0.68	0.19
FRF	1.12	0.93	0.19
2RF	0.9	0.78	0.12
HFB	0.73	0.5	0.23
5/8	0.74	0.55	0.19
CTW	0.72	0.52	0.2
FLB	0.83	0.48	0.35
Overall	0.81	0.65	0.16

As you can see, in 2019 the worst defensive team against 2RF is conceding an average of 0.9PPM at the position. The very best defensive side at the position is conceding 0.78PPM.

With just a 0.12 PPM difference between what the best and the worst, and a similarly low difference at FRF my hypothesis regarding big boppers seems reasonably arguable.

Compare this to fullback where the worst defensive team (St George) have conceded a whopping 0.35PPM more than the best (Melbourne) defensive team.

Then I got to wondering; are these numbers skewed by the uneven data set, has St George so far this season played a host of gun fullbacks while Melbourne have avoided them?

So here are the complete season stats for 2018, 2017 and 2016 for comparison.

2018 SC PPM allowed by position

Position	Most PPM	Least PPM	Difference
HKR	0.96	0.69	0.27
FRF	1.0	0.85	0.15
2RF	0.86	0.72	0.14
HFB	0.71	0.48	0.23
5/8	0.74	0.5	0.24
CTW	0.65	0.5	0.15
FLB	0.86	0.55	0.31
Overall	0.79	0.63	0.16

2017 SC PPM allowed by position

Position	Most PPM	Least PPM	Difference
HKR	0.87	0.67	0.2
FRF	1.01	0.88	0.13
2RF	0.92	0.76	0.16
HFB	0.92	0.51	0.41
5/8	0.83	0.57	0.26
CTW	0.72	0.52	0.2
FLB	0.82	0.52	0.3
Overall	0.84	0.65	0.19

2016 SC PPM allowed by position

Position	Most PPM	Least PPM	Difference
HKR	0.83	0.63	0.2
FRF	1.07	0.91	0.16
2RF	0.94	0.75	0.19
HFB	0.83	0.55	0.28
5/8	0.85	0.55	0.3
CTW	0.77	0.49	0.28
FLB	0.93	0.51	0.42
Overall	0.88	0.65	0.23

WHAT CAN WE CONCLUDE?

SOS is a thing. No matter what your position SC points are easier to get against bad teams as compared to good. But front rowers and second rowers are less impacted by SOS. Across all four years theres are the only PPM averages that fall below the overall difference. The other noticeable result is that fullbacks are significantly affected by SOS while and all other positions are somewhere in between. With the numbers crunched and the learnings learnt — let’s get on with the SOS for the remainder of 2019.

THE 2019 SOS RANKINGS

Yes I will … this is where every team ranks based on SC points conceded across all positions so far in 2019 with Melbourne Storm being the best and St George Dragons the worst.

Assigning a team’s defensive rank as ‘Strength of Schedule Points’ now we can rank each team’s remaining 2019 draw from easiest to hardest.

SuperCoach defensive rankings (Worst to best)

16. Dragons

15. Bulldogs

14. Eels

13. Cowboys

12. Titans

11. Broncos

10. Sea Eagles

9. Warriors

8. Wests Tigers

7. Panthers

6. Roosters

5. Sharks

4. Rabbitohs

3. Raiders

2. Knights

1. Storm

EVERY CLUB RANKED FOR 2019 (Round 17-25 inclusive)

*NB I have marked away games (A) but not changed values for home/away as that information is not available.

KNIGHTS

Rd 17: Bulldogs (15), Rd 18: Roosters (A) (6), Rd 19: Wests Tigers (8), Rd 20: Sea Eagles (A) (10), Rd 21: Eels (A) (14), Rd 22: Cowboys (13), Rd 23: Wests Tigers (A) (8), Rd 24: Titans (14), Rd 25: Panthers (A) (7). TOTAL: 95

Players of note: Great news for Kalyn Ponga, but you probably already own the young gun or have him in your plans. Halfback is another position where a soft draw correlates with increased SuperCoach points and this makes Mitch Pearce an intriguing option. Pearce was on fire through the middle of the season but then his a quiet patch in round 13 and 14 and as a result he faces a huge BE. Forecast to be available for around $520K in round 19 he could prove a canny POD to take you home.

EELS

Rd 17: Wests Tigers (A) (8), Rd 18: Sea Eagles (A) (10), Rd 19: Warriors (9), Rd 20: Dragons (A) (16), Rd 21: Knights (2), Rd 22: Titans (A) (12), Rd 23: Bulldogs (15), Rd 24: Broncos (A) (11), Rd 25: Sea Eagles (10). TOTAL: 93

Players of note: Clint Gutherson started 2019 on a tear and boasted an average of 77.2PPG after six rounds. There have been more low scores than high since then but the draw suggests the Parramatta fullback could reward coaches who hold on to him until the end. Mitch Moses leads his position by over 100 points and is still available for under $600K (and under 25% ownership). The Eels halfback has a tough game in round 15 (Raiders in Darwin) but could be a savvy grab after the round 16 bye.

Clint Gutherson of the Eels has a favourable draw and should be held despite a lean mid-season run. Picture: AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts

BRONCOS

Rd 17: Warriors (9), Rd 18: Bulldogs (15), Rd 19: Titans (A) (12), Rd 20: Storm (1), Rd 21: Cowboys (A) (13), Rd 22: Panthers (7), Rd 23: Rabbitohs (4), Rd 24: Eels (14), Rd 25: Bulldogs (A) (15). TOTAL: 90

Players of note: Lead playmaker Anthony Milford is back to his rollercoaster worst of late with three scores over 70 in his past five games — and the remainder 30 or less. Definitely in the POD range with just 5% ownership you would not play Milford on a week in week out basis but he has the potential to go large in at least five of the final nine games and can be bought for under $500K (ohh and he helps in the round 16 bye too!).

RABBITOHS

Rd 17: Sea Eagles (10), Rd 18: Cowboys (A) (13), Rd 19: Dragons (16), Rd 20: Sharks (A) (5), Rd 21: Storm (1), Rd 22: Bulldogs (15), Rd 23: Broncos (A) (11), Rd 24: Warriors (A) (9), Rd 25: Roosters (6). TOTAL: 86

Players of note: Cody Walker is an obvious trade in target come round 17. The South Sydney five-eighth was in incredible form for the first ten rounds of the season and then went cold; ice cold. However, the Rabbitohs are getting their backline band back together and come round 17 should be at or near full strength. At that point you will be able to grab Walker for $500K and change. Do it.

PANTHERS

Rd 17: Titans (12), Rd 18: Dragons (16), Rd 19: Raiders (3), Rd 20: Bulldogs (A) (15), Rd 21: Sharks (5), Rd 22: Broncos (A) (11), Rd 23: Cowboys (A) (13), Rd 24: Roosters (A) (6), Rd 25: Knights (2). TOTAL: 83

Players of note: Despite the nice draw it is hard to get too excited about any of the Panthers. The likes of Viliame Kikau and James Fisher-Harris are good, but I don’t rate them at top 2/3 in position and therefore I would not buy them if I didn’t have them. Nathan Cleary’s injury. James Maloney has a 3RA of 66.3 and will take over the goalkicking duties in the absence of the injured Nathan Cleary. However, Cleary is expected back in four weeks and there are better options at the position.

The Roosters Latrell Mitchell is one player who could make the most of his team’s reasonable run to the finals. Picture: Phil Hillyard

ROOSTERS

Rd 17: Cowboys (13), Rd 18: Knights (2), Rd 19: Bulldogs (A) (15), Rd 20: Titans (12), Rd 21: Raiders (A) (3), Rd 22: Warriors (9), Rd 23: Dragons (A) (16), Rd 24: Panthers (7), Rd 25: Rabbitohs (4). TOTAL: 81

Players of note: If any Rooster is matchup proof, or close to it, it’s James Tedesco. I know this ignores all the analysis above regarding fullbacks being SOS affected but he’s just that good so I’ll move on. Latrell Mitchell has been a bit up and down this season, but the numbers showed he has actually been slightly more reliable this season than he was at the same point last year. In 2018 Mitchell averaged over 80PPG from Round 19 onwards and I’m tipping him to find the form and hunger to do that again (or go close). Unlikely to get a look in for Origin III he is a great buy for the round 16 bye and beyond.

STORM

Rd 17: Sharks (5), Rd 18: Titans (A) (12), Rd 19 Sea Eagles (10), Rd 20: Broncos (A) (11), Rd 21: Rabbitohs (A) (4), Rd 22: Raiders (3), Rd 23: Titans (12), Rd 24: Sea Eagles (A) (10), Rd 25: Cowboys (13). TOTAL: 80

Players of note: Don’t be seduced by Nelson Asofa-Solomona and his 3RA of 66.3. The big man is a destructive force but the attacking stats will not continue at such a rate. Cameron Munster is as capable of 2-3 games around 45 points as he is of scoring 100+ and so will frustrate and delight you in equal measure.

WESTS TIGERS

Rd 17: Eels (14), Rd 18: Raiders (A) (3), Rd 19: Knights (A) (2), Rd 20: Cowboys (13), Rd 21: Bulldogs (A) (15), Rd 22: Sea Eagles (A) (10), Rd 23: Knights (2), Rd 24: Dragons (A) (16), Rd 25: Sharks (5). TOTAL: 80

Players of note: Ryan Matterson looks to have missed his chance at Origin selection this year and as such will be a high priority buy heading into Rd 16. Winger David Nofoaluma is an intriguing POD with his high workrate lending him a solid base for an outside back and plenty of offloads/tackle busts coming too. The Tigers have a pretty tough draw and you would not play him every week but currently in under 500 teams he could prove an uber-POD if used wisely.

BULLDOGS

Rd 17: Knights (A) (2), Rd 18: Broncos (A) (11), Rd 19: Roosters (6), Rd 20: Panthers (7), Rd 21: Wests Tigers (8), Rd 22: Rabbitohs (A) (4), Rd 23: Eels (A) (14), Rd 24: Cowboys (A) 13, Rd 25: Broncos (11). TOTAL: 76

Players of note: None, zip, zilch and zero.

TITANS

Rd 17: Panthers (A) (7), Rd 18: Storm (1), Rd 19: Broncos (11), Rd 20: Roosters (A) (6), Rd 21: Dragons (A) (16), Rd 22: Eels (14), Rd 23: Storm (A) (1), Rd 24: Knights (A) (2), Rd 25: Dragons (16). TOTAL: 74

Players of note: I flagged Moeaki Fotuaika as a man in need of only minutes to become a SC stud. Those minutes came in the past four weeks and Mo has delivered with a 4RA of 64 (including 75 points in 80 minutes in round 14!). The return of Jai Arrow will likely end Fotuaika’s run as an 80 minute player, but that is weeks away yet. Creeping up in price and no help in the round 16 bye Fotuaika is probably not worth picking but he deserves a shout out.

Euan Aitken of the Dragons is not quite a ‘keeper’ but may still score enough to be a matchup reliant selection. Picture: AAP Image/Joel Carrett

DRAGONS

Rd 17: Raiders (3), Rd 18: Panthers (A) (7), Rd 19: Rabbitohs (A) (4), Rd 20: Eels (14), Rd 21: Titans (12), Rd 22: Sharks (A) (5), Rd 23: Roosters (6), Rd 24: Wests Tigers (8), Rd 25: Titans (A) (12). TOTAL: 71

Players of note: Centre Euan Aitken has never really been a SC stud — but often showed signs that he could become one with luck. The Dragons are getting down on the SOS score though and I think there are more desirable players — though if you have under $360K to spend on a bye eligible CTW that would not make the worst 6th CTW who you play on good match-ups then Aitken is your man.

RAIDERS

Rd 17: Dragons (A) (16), Rd 18: Wests Tigers (8), Rd 19: Panthers (A) (7), Rd 20: Warriors (A) (9), Rd 21: Roosters (6), Rd 22: Storm (A) (1), Rd 23: Sea Eagles (10), Rd 24: Sharks (A) (5), Rd 25: Warriors (9). TOTAL: 71

Players of note: Speaking of reasonably priced CTW that you would play when the matchup suited there’s Canberra captain Jarrod Croker. The Raiders’ skipper has broken through 65 points eight time this year and top scored with 80 points against the Storm. Another who is no help in the bye and I probably wouldn’t rush to buy him but Nick Campton gets angry if I don’t show some Croker love every once in a while so here it is.

SHARKS

Rd 17: Storm (A) (1), Rd 18: Warriors (9), Rd 19: Cowboys (13), Rd 20: Rabbitohs (4), Rd 21: Panthers (A) (7), Rd 22: Dragons (16), Rd 23: Warriors (9), Rd 24: Raiders (3), Rd 25: Wests Tigers (A) (8). TOTAL: 70

Players of note: Shaun Johnson looked a little rusty in round 14 when making his return from a lengthy injury lay-off. Johnson then backed up and played for New Zealand in the representative round — and while he was not super busy he was productive with two tries and a fingernail off a third. Despite a ++ matchup against the Bulldogs in round 15 I’m waiting one more week due though his BE of 125. If SJ gets through that game he’s in my team and even though the Sharks have a pretty tough draw for the run home I’m expecting him to score well. I’m not sure what to think about Paul Gallen. On the one hand the Cronulla warhorse could play decent minutes over the next couple of weeks with Andrew Fifita suspended - and Gallen has scored 98 (with a try) and 71 (all base) in his two games over 60 minutes this year. On the other, Gallen has just one other game over 60 points this season whereas Tevita Pangai Jr, who also covers the bye, has the added bonus of dual flexibility and is $50K cheaper, has four games of 60+ and a better average.

Shaun Johnson of the Sharks has a high BE in round 15 — but he also faces the Bulldogs. Picture: AAP Image/Rohan Thomson

WARRIORS

Rd 17: Broncos (A) (11), Rd 18: Sharks (5), Rd 19: Eels (14), Rd 20: Raiders (3), Rd 21: Sea Eagles (10), Rd 22: Roosters (A) (6), Rd 23: Sharks (A) (5), Rd 24: Rabbitohs (4), Rd 25: Raiders (A) (3). TOTAL: 61

Players of note: Big winger Ken Maumalo is one of my buys of the round heading in to round 16. However, the move comes with some risk. Maumalo is enjoying a significant increase in runs over eight metres and big increase in tries when compared to career averages. There has to be some genuine fear of regression as the tougher draw bites over the back of the season.

COWBOYS

Rd 17: Roosters (A) (6), Rd 18: Rabbitohs (4), Rd 19: Sharks (A) (5), Rd 20: Wests Tigers (A) (8), Rd 21: Broncos (11), Rd 22: Knights (A) (2), Rd 23: Panthers (7), Rd 24: Bulldogs (15), Rd 25: Storm (A) (1). TOTAL: 59

Players of note: You own Jason Taumalolo right? Move on.

SEA EAGLES

Rd 17: Rabbitohs (A) (4), Rd 18: Eels (14), Rd 19: Storm (A) (1), Rd 20: Knights (2), Rd 21: Warriors (A) (10), Rd 22: Wests Tigers (8), Rd 23: Raiders (A) (3), Rd 24: Storm (1), Rd 25: Eels (A) (14). TOTAL: 57

Players of note: I wrote above that James Tedesco is one fullback I’d expect to buck the SOS/fullback relationship — well Tom Trbojevic is another man with the ability to make a mockery of the statistics that have come before him. No help in round 16 but there has to be some thought of grabbing him now with his price set to absolutely soar in the medium to short term following his massive 167 points in round 14. Oh and don’t forget that Turbo put 194 points on his round 15 opponent the Titans last year.