SuperCoach Plus Article: The stats that will matter in Round Seven
This round offers a host of KFC SuperCoach NRL bargains and SC Plus has the stats that will help you pick the right one.
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You don’t need KFC SuperCoach Plus to know that three into two doesn’t go – which is a shame because even in the absence of Ryan Papenhuyzen (injured) and Latrell Mitchell (suspended) there are still plenty of gun fullbacks available for selection.
Former champion Wilfred Zee delves into the statistical vault to identify players to watch.
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1. Welcome back, Kalyn Ponga
When Ponga scored 66 points in round five on his return from a lengthy injury break he looked good but hardly a must have in the stacked fullback ranks. But then last weekend the Newcastle fullback reminded us what we had been missing during his absence from the NRL with a thumping 163 point effort. Of course, there was the usual highlights in attack but we saw a noticeable increase in his workrate as well, with his run numbers (and in turn, his tackle busts) significantly higher than in round five. Before you rush to buy, keep in mind that Ponga has some tricky matchups ahead – the trickiest of which is his match this week against the Panthers a team against which he averages just 44PPG from four matches. It’s the Roosters the following week and then the Raiders (away in Wagga).
2. Payne Haas has shown his floor for 2021
Haas has now played three games this season and is averaging 63 points from 66 minutes per game – you would suggest that these numbers are underwhelming in comparison to the lofty numbers we’re used to seeing from Haas over his first full seasons in the NRL. However, it’s worth noting that he has faced two of the toughest teams to score KFC SuperCoach points against in the Panthers and the Storm (especially the Storm!) and he has also had to deal with a game where a lot of the action was played on the edges (against the Rabbitohs). If scores of 57, 72 and 64 are his base and base attack stats so far, and an average of 63 points per game is his floor, then better things are surely on the way once he catches up in terms of match fitness. SuperCoach Plus suggests you can afford to wait a week or two on Haas as he has a BE of 93 this week and (provided the Eels hold him to his season average) he will have a similar BE the following week against the Titans. But with that safe base and Haas' proven ability to bust the line/score a try a big score is just around the corner and when that eventuates Payne’s price will start heading north in a hurry.
3. No need to panic on Barnett
Mitch Barnett certainly burned the KFC SuperCoaches who traded him out over the past few weeks, showing exactly why the loss of the goalkicking wasn’t quite the death knell some were predicting to Barnett’s SuperCoach relevance. As expected with the return of Kalyn Ponga, the attacking upside is significantly higher, whether it be through Barnett running off Ponga’s good work, or whether Ponga is there in support to take advantage of Barnett’s ability to find a pass or an offload and convert that into a tryscoring opportunity. Barnett would still have scored 59 points in base and base attack last week even without the attacking stats, and that was without him getting the arm free for his usual offloads too.
4. You’re a wizard, Harry
There’s no other explanation for it! Harry Grant is a freak of a rugby league player, and it translates oh so perfectly to KFC SuperCoach. He’s played just 53 and 47 minutes respectively in the past two weeks, for scores of 66 and 98. His base and base attack stats were 42 and 47 these two weeks, and he amassed 24 and 55 points respectively in attacking stats across his first two games of 2021. It’s safe to say that Grant can get it done in multiple ways, and as soon as his game time increases to pre-season expectations of 60+ minutes per game, he will be extremely hard to watch on the field as a non-owner. This definitely creates a conundrum for KFC SuperCoaches given how stacked the hooker position already is!
5. Welcome back, Tom Trbojevic
Injury concerns aside, is there anything scarier than the prospect of facing Tommy Turbo fresh off his latest injury lay-off? There really seems to be a trend of Tommy just exploding back out of the blocks once he returns from a lengthy injury recovery time, when he hasn’t been rushed back to the field. Tom was unstoppable in the first half, hitting 100 points at halftime, but he eased off in the second half and was later given an early shower. His base and base attack stats are lower than what he usually dishes up but the marked difference in the Sea Eagles attack and defence from just one player is astonishing. The Sea Eagles went from looking like a bottom four team, to a top eight team with the return of just one player! The NRL and also KFC SuperCoach are far better with the sight of a healthy Tommy Turbo running around out there – now we just need him to stay healthy!
6. David Nofoaluma is ripe for the picking
It was always going to be difficult for Nofo to match the lofty heights he reached in 2020, and while owners and non-owners alike may describe his start to 2021 as ‘disappointing’, I would suggest that a CTW averaging over 60 after six rounds is hardly disappointing at all. His base and base attack sits at 45.2 points per game (elite) and he’s only scored three tries so far this year. Nofo is at an extremely affordable price for the production he can deliver, and he also plays Round 13. A late swap to the left wing also offers some potential attacking upside, given the attacking prowess of Luciano Leilua on that left edge. Don’t overthink this one, grab Nofo when you can!
7. Isaiah Papali’i is in sublime form
You didn’t need me to tell you this though; anyone watching the Eels play would have noticed how well Papali’i was going as an impact player off the bench, and in the past few weeks as a starting edge backrower in Ryan Matterson’s ongoing absence. From a strictly football standpoint, you could make a cash that the Eels looked most effective when ‘Ice’ has come on as an impact middle forward off the bench, but he is doing a more than sufficient job as a starting edge backrower. It’s no surprise that the longer he is on the field, the better he is for KFC SuperCoach, and he has four round average of 97.3 points per game since being the starter! Four tries (all with accompanying line breaks) helps with that but he is still scoring 67.8 points per game in base and base attack stats – elite!
8. Reed Mahoney really appears to have taken that next step
I wrote earlier this year about the potential for Reed Mahoney to have taken that next step into the upper echelon of premium hooking options for KFC SuperCoach purposes and four rounds later, it’s hard to argue with the numbers! Averaging 89.7 points per game, Mahoney is playing big minutes at a high workrate (60.2 points per game in base and base attack stats) while also scoring plenty of attacking stats too (two tries, five try assists, line breaks, line break assists and even a forty/twenty for good measure). All the attention is on Harry Grant this week (at hooker) but Mahoney is $6,000 cheaper and also plays Round 13 …
9. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck hasn’t checked out early
In the pre-season there was some mild concern, or speculation (purely hypothetical) that RTS might not have his head in the game in his final season of NRL before he goes off to try play rugby union and make the All Blacks. Well, it’s safe to say that’s not the case, and RTS is ripping in as much as usual, if not even more. Averaging 82 points per game across six rounds, his great start to the year is overshadowed purely off the back of exemplary opening rounds from Papenhuyzen, Mitchell and Tedesco, although the latter is fading quickly due to the injury crisis at the Roosters. RTS has proven integral to the Warriors’ attack so far and it seems unlikely that changes anytime soon, especially given the injuries to their backline. Expect plenty more of what RTS has dished up so far this year!
10. Val Holmes is flying under the radar
Maybe it was the naming on the wing for the first two rounds, not having the goalkicking, or the Cowboys’ general attacking woes, but Val Holmes has averaged 71.3 points per game for the past four rounds and he is looking like a legitimate CTW option for the season now that he is settled at fullback and has also held onto the goalkicking. In fact, for the past four rounds he has had a floor of 49 points per game in his base and base attack stats, plus his goalkicking, and as noted previously, that’s elite territory for CTW options. Unfortunately he doesn’t play Round 13 but there’s plenty of reasons to keep a close eye on Val Holmes moving forward!
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