SuperCoach Plus Article: The best player at each position for run home
While the spice of a POD is nice, these are the players you need as the core of your KFC SuperCoach NRL team for the run home.
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The byes are done and dusted – along with many of our aspirations to finish with a key ring – and it is time to assemble the best squad we can for the final run home.
These are the players who so dominate their position that without them you will quickly slide out of contention.
There is still place for a POD, but prioritise picking these SuperCoach NRL studs first.
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HOK
This position, which used to be easiest to fill with confidence in years gone by – Cam Smith and or Damien Cook thanks – has been anything but in 2021. Brandon Smith has not ‘come from nowhere’ but he has certainly surprised many who expected him to play a minor role to Harry Grant this year. Of course, Grant’s injury run has been a contributing factor but Smith has also made the very most of his chance scoring a rather incredible nine tries including six in his past five matches. Is this sustainable? History would suggest not as Smith is averaging just three minutes more per game this year than last, but three times more tries per game than last. Grant is due back from injury next round, does he then become your lock and load hooker for the run home, or do Smith and Grant cannibalise each other? It’s too hard to say, but this along with the decline in former gun Damien Cook’s productivity and the decline in early season stud Jayden Brailey’s output makes this position a lottery like few others.
FRF
He is available at both FRF and 2RF but if you are fortunate enough to boast depth at 2RF then using 2021 breakout star Isaiah Papali’i to anchor your front row just makes sense. ‘Ice’ averages a whopping 19PPG more than the next best FRF (the suspended Tevita Pangai whose relationship with the Broncos is fraught at best). The gold standard at the position would be to partner Papali’i with one of Payne Haas or Josh Papalii though it is another young gun, Mo Fotuaika, who is projected to have the second best average of the next three games.
2RF
As well as Papali’i is going, David Fifita is going better. In 13 games so far the tackle busting machine has scored 80+ eight times and Queensland’s loss (he is suspended for Origin III) is our win as Fifita will be fresh and no doubt wanting to dominate in round 18. Around Fifita’s explosive potential a ‘perfect’ 2RF would partner Tohu Harris’ reliable output (second only to Fifita for the rate at which he has exceeded 60 points per game), Angus Crichton’s upside (the Rooster is averaging slightly less than last year but has still exceeded 80 points seven times in 13 games) and then ideally a fourth 2RF like Brandon Smith who provides valuable DPP (2RF/HOK) cover or you could take a chance on a ‘fallen gun’ like Cam Murray who is available for just $516K and has the upside to win you a head-to-head matchup on any given day.
HFB
The injury to Nathan Cleary has thrown the position wide open. Prior to that injury Cleary led the position by an incredible 40PPG and as such the ideal play would be to select one of the ‘second-tier’ options and retain enough money and trades to bring Cleary back when he returns. But, when will he return? Cleary’s shoulder injury suffered in Origin II was initially feared to be season-ending. Fortunately for the Panthers, later scans provided an optimistic return date of round 20. Should Cleary be back then it would mean those that can work a way to have him in their squads would enjoy six rounds of significant advantage over those that cannot. But will the Panthers rush their star’s return?
No longer seemingly assured of a top-two finish a finish outside the top four looks unlikely and they enjoy a two game winning buffer along with significant for and against advantage over the team in fourth. With the very real possibility that the Storm finish first and secure a home final against the team that finishes fourth AND the chance that any finals are played outside of Sydney thus nullifying home field advantage it would make little material difference to the Panthers whether they finish second or third (either way they would play the Rabbitohs or Eels in Queensland). All this is my long winded way of saying it would not shock me if Cleary was nursed back as late as round 22-23. And so for those of us who maybe cannot see a way into Cleary then it becomes a choice between Daly Cherry-Evans and his Turbo-charged season, Jahrome Hughes who pulls the strings for the game’s most lethal attack (though may be dulled somewhat by the return of Cameron Munster), Mitchell Moses (who is in good form but has a tough draw), Ben Hunt (behind only DCE and Cleary in 3RA but also a part of a disintegrating Dragons outfit) and the ageing wonder that is Shaun Johnson (set to benefit from a kind draw but not the weapon of yore). In short, it’s a bit of a lottery but one that would be won by those that can retain the flexibility to grab Cleary upon his return.
5/8
A race in three parts here with no clearly dominant player, but two stalwart stars and one POD option that could pay off. Cody Walker comfortably leads the position on PPG average (78PPG) and points scored (1163) and anyone who enjoyed his final five-game run last year in which he scored 102, 81, 82, 91 and 203 will be aware that when Walker’s on he’s really really on. The Rabbitohs have some tricky match-ups to close the season (Eels, Panthers and Roosters) but also some very enticing ones (Bulldogs, Warriors and Dragons – twice). I think Walker is pretty much a must. With him you could pair Cameron Munster, who has slid to a very appealing $544K and will no doubt finish the season strong for the Storm. The left-field option for the brave is to take a chance on Adam Doueihi. The Wests Tigers have been absolutely monstered recently and coach Maguire has seen the light moving Doueihi back to his preferred five-eighth position at which in eight games he has averaged 75PPG exceeding 80 points five times. The Tigers have a very kind draw ahead with the Broncos, Warriors, Sharks, Cowboys and Bulldogs – twice. Points beckon.
CTW
The standout at this position is Melbourne’s Nicho Hynes but there is a problem and it is that he will not hold his current position (fullback) when Ryan Papenhuyzen returns and Paps is due back next week. Hynes may drop to the bench, he may slot in at centre but either way he is probably not your key man till the end here. But then who is? Reuben Garrick, another enjoying a Turbo-charged season, is rocking a 3RA of 125 and with a better than fair draw, a super ceiling (he has hit triple figures six times in his 16 games) Garrick looks like a must. Throw in any of Brian To’o (who was a clear standout for the first half of the season), Alex Johnston, Val Holmes, and then a POD like Kotoni Staggs and/or Josh Addo-Carr and you’ll no doubt finish happy.
FLB
If you don’t have Tom Trbojevic do you even SuperCoach? That really hurt to type because I (Rob) do not have Turbo and I don’t see a way to get him not with that $995K price tag. And in a nutshell that is why you are almost certainly either beating me this year or on your way to claiming that dubious honour. Along with lifting every other Sea Eagle to a new level Turbo has taken his game to a new plane scoring triple figures in eight of his ten games so far and averaging 129PPG. In year’s gone past an 80PPG average is exceptional. Six fullbacks are sitting at that mark (yes I rounded Teddy up because he’s a Rooster live with it), but those of you, like Rob, who do not have Turbo are conceding 50PPG to those that have Turbo and you can double that as Turbo is an automatic captaincy choice. In short, don’t be like Rob, be a winner, get Turbo.
• Bye planning in 2021 – how hard is it!
We were “lucky” in 2020 in that we didn’t have to deal with the byes, with Origin taking place post-season. Of course, the circumstances on how all that arose wasn’t great, but you’ve got to look at the silver lining sometimes! However, the byes were back with a vengeance in 2021 and boy, weren’t they tough! Between the increased rate of injury, suspensions leading up to both bye rounds, the added uncertainty of coach selections and rotating their squads – it was nightmare fuel for KFC SuperCoaches who often lost anywhere from one to five players from their meticulously-planned bye round squads. It certainly felt harder than before and you have to wonder how 2022 will go with the rumoured return to three Wednesday night Origins…
• CTWs are the new “in”
We discovered firstly that fullbacks were the “new” thing this year but as trades dwindle and teams are settling on their “run-home” fullback combination, it looks like the centre/wing position might be the best opportunity to target for an edge, as teams may start to give up and the best attacking teams can start putting up some scores. It most likely will be a viable strategy to look at getting a spread of CTW options with big ceilings, with the view of rotating them based on match-ups. I mean, just look at the scores of Jason Saab (162), Taane Milne (131), Matt Ikuvalu (83), Dom Young (88), Phil Sami (86), Tesi Niu (104) and Campbell Graham (102) in the past two weeks – all with very low ownership (at the top end of the leaderboard anyway).
• Haumole Olakau’atu keeps getting better
He was somewhat unheralded in 2021, especially for those expecting the breakout rookie season from him last year, but Haumole has steadily improved each week and developed – in the absence of Curtis Sironen – into one of the steadiest options at the 2RF position for the Sea Eagles. He has a four round average of 74.5 points per game, albeit on the back of a bunch of tries and other attacking stats, but he is seeing big minutes (all four games of 73 minutes or more, with two 80 minute games in the past four weeks) and seeing plenty of attacking opportunity with the likes of DCE and Tommy Turbo capable of generating attack seemingly at will at times. With the Sea Eagles’ run home, he could be an intriguing POD for those keen for a left-field 2RF option.
Play of the Week: Jason Taumalolo has had a quiet season in 2021... until Round 17 👠pic.twitter.com/zmuk3ULabw
— SuperCoach NRL (@SuperCoachNRL) July 14, 2021
• Taane Milne getting his shot
Some of us who have played KFC SuperCoach for a few years now will remember Taane Milne bursting onto the scene in 2016 with the Dragons, firstly off the bench but then as an absolute base stat beast in the centres. He put up some massive base and base attack numbers, averaging 65 in his five games at centre (not including his injury game) – and that was with just one try assist and no tries! Since then, he has spent some time in the wilderness at the Warriors and then he suffered an ACL injury. Landing at the Rabbitohs has given him one last shot to show what he can do, and he has really shown out the past few weeks! At the moment, he appears to have nailed down that right wing spot ahead of the likes of Jaxon Paulo and Josh Mansour, and he could be a play almost every week with the attacking opportunities on tap at the Rabbitohs!
• Alex Johnston is putting up some all-time numbers
With a five-round average of 119, featuring a ridiculous 13 tries, 16 line breaks and two try assists in just five games, AJ can seemingly do no wrong. If you made the decision to avoid Johnston five weeks ago (like I did) due to his long history of having a really low workrate, and inconsistency from years past (including the earlier part of this season too!), you paid the price big-time. However, in this five game stretch, Johnston has increased his workrate too – averaging 36 points per game in base and base attack stats combined. It isn’t elite by any stretch of the imagination but those are big numbers for AJ, who is usually struggling to get past 20 many times! If this keeps up then AJ will be an even more painful watch for non-owners.
• Jason Taumalolo is… back… maybe?
It feels weird, it does, but Lolo has not been himself this year. Except for that one massive 71 minute game against the Broncos (who else) and also Round 17 – Lolo has not had a score over 60 otherwise. It’s been slim pickings and part of it was the minutes, part of it was something else altogether though, as his workrate even when given the minutes hasn’t been “Lolo-like”. In fact he has a three-round average of 67, despite playing almost 58 minutes per game which isn’t that far off his usual minutes (averaged 61 minutes per game for his 72 point per game average in 2020). Something is off, and if you removed his line break and his try assist offload from his score, he reverts back to a 60-65 point score which is, again, not “Lolo-like”. He’s a bargain at his price, but only if he reverts to the usual standards we expect from Taumalolo.
• Joey Manu is a deadset BEAST at fullback
I’ve written many times about Manu as a player, and I have to admit to a bit of a mancrush – purely for KFC SuperCoach purposes, of course! He would be a starting fullback at plenty of clubs in the NRL, but happens to be behind one of the best in the world right now in James Tedesco. Oh, that’s alright, he’ll just be the best centre in the world instead. However, if Manu was ever to shift to fullback permanently, he would give plenty of KFC SuperCoaches a headache. He has played seven games at fullback in the past three seasons – for an average of 89.7 points per game. That includes over 54 points in base and base attack stats, an elite floor that is just mindboggling. Owners will be crossing their fingers desperately that Teddy decides to take a bit of a breather post-Origin this week!
• Sam Walker is a risky play
We saw earlier in the season the ceiling that this kid has, scoring a monster 163 points in Round 8, backing up his 125 in Round 7. However, we’ve also seen his floor, with 11 points in Round 11 against the Broncos. The goalkicking can help with the floor but we’ve seen that he can score in the 20s or below due to low base stats.
There’s also the risk that he injures his shoulder more, as we know that he is playing injured (AC joint injury) which can get re-aggravated mid-game if he cops a knock in the wrong way. There are some nice match-ups for the Roosters coming up but there are certainly some risks to playing Walker. Those with trades may decide to move Walker on for a more stable, reliable option.
Bring on Round 18!
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