SuperCoach Plus Article Round 10: The stats that matter for Magic Round
In this week’s exclusive SuperCoach Plus article we talk Gambles that could pay off, Eels steals and more in our weekly deep dive.
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Brisbane halfback Tyson Gamble is the most popular buy this week and the stats suggest he’s a good get while two Parramatta powerhouses make plenty of appeal for different reasons.
Wilfred Zee and Rob Sutherland take a deep dive into the stats that will matter for Magic Round.
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1. IS IT TIME TO GAMBLE
Brisbane halfback Tyson Gamble is the most popular buy of the week and it is easy to see why.
Priced just above base price, rocking a very handy average of 57.5PPG and with very handy HFB|5/8 dual position there is plenty to like here.
Further in Gamble’s favour is his base rate production of better than 30PPG built largely on an appetite for defence which has seen the nuggety playmaker make 55 tackles (and miss eight) in his opening two matches.
For reference Gamble’s base is the second best of any player available at halfback (the now retired Michael Morgan tops the list) and is behind only Dylan Brown and Morgan for players eligible – and playing – at 5/8 (that stipulation excludes the likes of Connor Watson and Josh Schuster who are playing backrow).
SC Plus predicts a price rise of $80K over the next three rounds but I think that is conservative and an increase of $100K plus is a realistic possibility.
Yes the draw is not idea, Manly is a different team with Tom Trbojevic and then it’s the Roosters/Storm which is a combination to challenge any half, but it is a depleted Roosters/ Storm …
For those looking to offload an injured Cameron Munster or Sam Walker a move down to Gamble provides you with a cheap option with a solid floor oh and a cherry on top of all that – he plays in the opening bye round.
2. IS THE ICE MAN STILL A STEAL AT $782K
Two Eels fill the next most popular buy slots in Isiah Papali’i and Ryan Matterson. If you can’t have both then which one is the one to get?
Papali’I has been proving naysayers – aka Rob – wrong all season, in some ways as a result of luck but far more to do with grit and ability.
The injury to Ryan Matterson saw Papali’I’s role grow from a 55 minute bench player rolling through the middle to an 80 minute edge player and in the five games Matterson missed IPap averaged 94.4PPG in 71MPG. He did score five tries which was a huge boost to his average but he also averaged 54.6 base PPG – on an edge!
When Matterson returned many – aka Rob – was of the opinion that IPap would revert to his role in the middle off the bench. Far from it, in fact Shaun Lane was the one who made and in the past two rounds Papali’I has averaged 111PPG of which 65PPG has been in base – on an edge!
These are absolutely incredible numbers and suggest Papali’I has a floor or around 80PPG. And so the question is does he still represent value at $782K? And the answer is – quite possibly. The salary cap has not moved far from what we had last year and so using last year’s prices Kalyn Ponga averaged 80PPG in 2020 and began 2021 priced at $729K. Nathan Cleary averaged 83PPG in 2020 and began 2021 priced at $734K.
Using those numbers, and assuming that the Parramatta recruit can continue to average around 80 points then it looks like you are paying around $60K ‘overs’ this week. That’s not great, but can you afford to not own the player with the second most points overall and one who has a whopping 182 point lead on the next best FRF?
3 HOW ABOUT THE OTHER EEL ON AN EDGE?
If your budget doesn’t quite stretch to Papali’I then there’s a lot to like about Ryan Matterson who is available at around $200K less. Matterson was a pre-season favourite starting the season in 28.7% of teams after a 2020 in which averaged 75.2PPG thanks in no small part to incredible consistency which saw him surpass 60PPG in every game bar the one in which he was knocked out in the fifth minute.
But that was then, this is now so how about 2021 I hear you ask. Well Matterson began the season strongly scoring 57 points in Rd 1 before a dreaded HIA felled him in round two with his score on just 35. Five weeks later, Matterson was finally able to return to the footy field and he produced a steady if unspectacular 60 points in 80 minutes almost all in base. The injury limited game, and fair to moderate return mean that Matterson is now priced at $580K over $85K cheaper than when he started the season.
And that’s a price that appeals, because in round nine Matto showed us just why he was so highly rated at the start of the season pumping out 55 points in base, 16 in OL/TB combined and adding a try assist and forced drop out to boot for a monster 85 points.
Matterson may not have Papali’i’s incredible base rate workrate but he is very very close and he is much much cheaper. Starting the round at just 3% ownership that is on the up, fast, and it would not shock to see his ownership in double digits when the round begins.
4. CHARLIE STAINES IS A POLARISING PLAYER WHILE. BRIAN TO’O IS LITERALLY NEXT LEVEL
On a week-to-week basis, is there a more polarising CTW option right now than Charlie Staines? He has certainly put up some low scores but as evidenced by his output just this past week, his ceiling for that price tag is arguably unmatched given the team he plays for and the opportunities he will have provided to him. KFC SuperCoaches have been frustrated thus far but it seems like the Panthers are working things out in that backline and it feels like there will be more and more opportunities for tries to be scored down that right wing! It’s just scary when he doesn’t score, as he is averaging just 24 points per game in base and base attack stats combined!
Meanwhile on the other edge at the Panthers another week brought us another Brian To’o lesson; this kid is special. To’o’s workrate is unprecedented in the NRL. at least in recent history, if not ever! To’o is averaging a mind-blowing 22.3 hit-ups per game, with a staggering 75% of them converting to eight metres and over. His pure base currently sits at 42.2 points per game and his base attack now sits at 17.1 points per game; that means in most weeks, even without attacking stats, To’o is going to give you a score of between 55 to 65 points just in his base and base attack stats. That’s better than some of the CTW/2RF dual position backrowers we used to get back in the day!
5. MATT IKUVALU COULD BE THE ‘WISH’ VERSION OF BRETT MORRIS
I’m sure we’ve all been there, scrolling through Facebook or Instagram or some other form of social media, and all of a sudden we see these products for sale that might relate to something we spoke about, or Googled earlier. And these products looked like exactly what we wanted – until you look a little closer, and you realise it’s not quite the same, but it probably could do the job. But then you check the price tag, and it’s half the price of the real thing, or significantly cheaper. Welcome to online shopping with Wish – if you know, you know. Ikuvalu, the new right winger that’s taken Brett Morris’s spot (RIP BMoz) continued on the tryscoring ways of BMoz, bagging a hat trick, but his general play, his workrate, his effectiveness, it’s not quite Brett Morris. But for a budget price, if it looks like BMoz, smells like BMoz, does 75% of the job of BMoz … *puts Ikuvalu into the Shopping Cart*.
6. ADAM O’BRIEN KILLS TWO BIRDS WITH ONE STONE
Those two birds represent the KFC SuperCoach output and value of Mitch Barnett and Connor Watson, which have been killed by the stone that is Lachlan Fitzgibbon’s return. Fitzgibbon’s return to the left edge position has pushed Barnett to lock and Watson to the bench, and it spells big trouble with the limited minutes on offer. Watson played just 39 minutes and would have scored only 29 points if not for his try assist and line break assist bumping up his score to a respectable 49. Barnett played just 44 minutes and managed to reach 46 points in base and base attack. However, the minutes are very concerning and without some attacking stats or increased minutes for both players, it will be a painful hold until Round 13 as they most likely will leak a fair bit of their cash value.
7. ADAM DOUEIHI ANNOUNCED HIS ABILITY AS A FIVE-EIGHTH BUT …
This lesson has been somewhat soured by the teamlists this week, with Doueihi named at centre (although who knows what will actually happen come final team lists). However, with a monster score of 141 he know that Doueihi can get it done for KFC SuperCoach purposes, and he is now the second highest averaging five eighth across the first nine rounds (excluding Keary who only played three games). Of course the 141 skews his average but even without that last score, he was still performing strongly with the goalkicking and being a focal point of the Tigers’ attack. With some criticism (mostly from Nofoaluma owners like Rob) over his inability to distribute the ball to his outside men, the reality is that sometimes what doesn’t work well for the NRL, works fantastically for KFC SuperCoach as not passing usually means more runs (+2 per hitup over eight metres), a tackle bust or two and maybe even an offload when the opportunity arises – all great things for Doueihi given his strengths as a runner of the ball. And now the Sir Mix-a-lot moment BUT, coach Maguire has shifted Doueihi from five-eighth to the centres this week. That will mean less ball in hand, but could provide greater attacking opportunities when it arrives. The positional switch has me avoiding a buy I was very keen on prior to Team List Tuesday.
8. WE SAW THE OLD JASON TAUMALOLO LAST WEEK
We’ve missed Taumalolo in the NRL and aside from a very pedestrian performance in Round 1 and then Round 8, his injuries have kept Lolo on the sidelines. Well, we saw a glimpse of the “old Lolo” in Round 9 as he monstered the Broncos through the middle on his way to 101 points in 71 minutes of game time. It wasn’t quite ‘vintage’ Lolo but it wasn’t far off given his run numbers and the last try he scored. You’d want to see more of this Taumalolo, especially more indication that coach Payten plans to keep the minutes high – before jumping on, given the obvious concerns prior to this performance!
9. TOMMY TURBO DOES IT AGAIN
And by “it”, I mean scored over 190 points. And by “again”, well, I mean again. Tommy now holds the title as the only KFC SuperCoach player that has gone over 190 more than once, and now is responsible for two of the five highest KFC SuperCoach scores of all time (not including the unofficial scores for Joey Johns and Terry Campese). It’s been said before by many SuperCoach pundits but a fit and firing Tom Trbojevic is potentially the best KFC SuperCoach player in the game. When Tommy’s on, not many can keep up with him and two tries, four try assists, five line breaks, four line break assists and ten tackle busts is a stat line that some players go all season for! Just a word of warning – yes non-owner Rob here – Turbo is currently averaging try, try assists and linebreaks at better than double his (incredibly high) career averages. A reversion to the mean is inevitable at some point.
10. PAUL VAUGHAN STILL HAS SOME JUICE LEFT
It really wasn’t that long ago that Vaughan was the darling of KFC SuperCoach in 2017 as he scored try upon try to finish as an absolute bargain given his starting price, and the opportunity that he had waiting for him at the Dragons. It hasn’t gone that well for him since then but he has tasted the Origin arena as well as having the opportunity to play finals football. The past two weeks Vaughan has played 53 minutes (58 points all in base) and 57 minutes (93 points, 60 in base, a try/linebreak, an offload and two tackle busts) and a respectively and if he manages to maintain these minutes, he could be a viable option again given his price tag, his previous history of production and the fact that he plays Round 13.
11. JOSH ADDO-CARR NOW HAS THE HIGHEST SCORE BY A WINGER OF ALL-TIME
He’s one of the fastest and best wingers in the NRL and now he’s officially the highest-scoring winger of all-time for KFC SuperCoach with his monster 178 this round, courtesy of an incredible six tries, four line breaks, eight tackle busts and 28 points in pure base. The ‘Fox’ overtook the previous highest score by a winger which was set only just last year by Matt Ikuvalu against the Cowboys in Round 9. There’s not much to be said about this other than the fact that Addo-Carr isn’t likely to repeat this performance again – and those planning a cash grab should be wary that Munster’s injury will no doubt impact the left-edge attack at the Storm – but there’s no doubting his ceiling now when it comes to SuperCoach points!
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