SuperCoach NRL: Ultimate Round 16 bye round planner

The second bye round is just weeks away and Rob Sutherland runs the rule over all the contenders PLUS a bonus weekly trade guide rating the optimum time to buy each player.

Planning for the second bye round of the season requires a different mindset to the first. You should have built a decent salary cap by now — and trades are likely running low — so rather than a combination of money making and points your targets from here on in should be solid scorers who you will hold to the run home.

HOOKER

Cameron Smith

It would be simple to say the great Cam Smith is in decline but the numbers don’t agree. Smith’s average tackle count is at three year highs and the mooted job-share with Brandon Smith has not eventuated with Smith senior playing a full shift (or just minutes off that) in all but one game — and his one 65 minute effort saw his highest score this year. That said, I have Smith below the next man on this list in my pecking order simply because his ownership level (29%) is high and one of my SuperCoach maxims is ‘ceteris paribus, then pick the POD’. If you are keen to buy Smith then there is no need to rush thanks to a high BE.

Cameron McInnes of the Dragons is a POD option for anyone who wants to avoid the Cam Smith bandwagon. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

Cameron McInnes

My pick of the hookers to partner Damien Cook for the run home is Cam McInnes from the Dragons. Averaging 67PPG (72PPG if you take out the opening two rounds of the season when he played under 80 MPG) with around 55 of that coming in base, McInnes is a ‘backup’ that you can play with confidence in your best 17 every week. Currently in just 6% of teams — a stat I expect to rocket over the next two weeks — and with a low BE thanks to his big round 11 score of 105, this is the week to grab the St George hooker.

Robbie Farah

Farah has scored just one point less than Cam Smith this season with a solid if unspectacular base (38PPG) augmented by category stuffing attacking stats in tries, try assists, forced dropouts, offloads and linebreak assists. However, beware because young Tiger Jacob Liddle is finally fit again and we saw that impact in round 11. In that game Farah played 45 minutes (scoring just 19 points) and Liddle 35. I’m expecting Farah to score much better than 19 from here to home but to drop well behind the two men above.

FRF

Not considered due to Origin — Payne Haas, David Klemmer, Paul Vaughan,

Andrew Fifita

With the most points of any FRF in the game, Origin not a concern and the capacity to score 80+ points on any given day you almost certainly own Fifita already. If you don’t, go and buy him. He may miss a game or two due to injury but let’s just hope that does not happen in round 16 where Fifita will prove a rock around which to build your score.

Sio Siua Taukeiaho (2RF)

Speaking of rocks — The Roosters’ own Tongan wrecking ball Taukeiaho is the man I’m tipping as the safest of captaincy options for the bye round. With a base near enough 50PPG and plenty of attacking stats in multiple categories TKO is averaging 63 PPG which is good, but that jumps to 68PPG if you take out his 14 point injury affected game in round 10. The cherry on top of course is that SST (yes he’s so good he has two SuperCoach nicknames) will be goalkicking in round 16 with Latrell Mitchell absent on Origin duties and so 80+ points is definitely on the cards. That round 10 injury leaves Taukeiaho with a BE of 107 for round 13 so he’s not a ‘must’ this week but should definitely be in your plans soon as he’s a bargain at anything under 580K.

Ryan Matterson is a great bye round buy — but beware as he’s just an injury away from Origin selection. Picture: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

2RF

Not considered due to Origin — David Klemmer, Boyd Cordner, Angus Crichton

Ryan Matterson

This pick comes with a certain amount of risk as Matterson is clearly in Origin contention should any one of the NSW backrow — or Jack Wighton — go down with injury between now and round 16. However, as with all things you balance risk and reward and Matterson’s reward is pretty darn good. With the second most points of any player available at 2RF thanks to a base of 52PPG, nimble feet to bust tackles and good hands to put outside players through holes Matto is a comfortable 4th 2RF behind the holy troika of Taumalolo, Jake Trbojevic and Cameron Murray

Briton Nikora (CTW)

Already in 63% of teams I cannot imagine anyone reading this article does not have Nikora already in their team. Along with John ‘The Animal’ Bateman, Nikora will form the basis of your CTW. If for some reason you do not own Nikora, then buy him soon because when Shaun Johnson returns I’m tipping him to go from very very good to great.

Brief notes on others:

Tohu Harris

Absent injury Tohu is locked in for 80 minutes on an edge where he will roll along scoring well when the attacking stats don’t come and very well when they do. He’s not quite top tier. However, he is a POD (just 3% of teams) and come round 14 he should be available for just under $500K. One for the POD hunters.

Mitchell Barnett

Since moving to second row in round five, Barnett has averaged 77MPG and 63PPG. A super POD at 1% ownership, he’s another that is not quite top tier but if you had plenty of trades on hand then he could prove a respectable point earner until round 16 that you then upgrade for the run home.

Wade Graham

Capable of punching out a big score thanks to his terrific ball playing skills, Graham lacks the base to really be a keeper. The Sharks are quite deep at backrow and you would expect him to be eased back on reduced minutes as he makes his return from ACL surgery. Pass

Shaun Johnson is back baby! Picture: Zak Simmonds

HALFBACK

Not considered due to Origin — Ben Hunt, Daly Cherry-Evans

Mitchell Pearce

To say Mitch Pearce has been sensational over the past six weeks is an understatement; with a 5RA of 90.8 and a 3RA of 92.0, no half has been as good as the Former Origin Great. Pearce has scored a try in each of the past five games and assisted 10 tries in that time. Is such an incredible run sustainable? Probably not. And priced at $660K Pearce is certainly far from a bargain. If I had him I would hold and hope junior stays hot, but as a non-owner I’ll be looking at someone lower down the list who I can grab at a better price.

Shaun Johnson

I for one cannot wait for Shaun Johnson to make his return from the hamstring injury which cut him down in the 22nd minute of round seven. One of the most dependable halves of all time, Johnson is often unfairly maligned as a rollercoaster ride. Due to return in round 14 and with the five point 20 minute hamstring injury affected game in his rolling average, SJ faces a couple of big BEs and should be available for $450K or less ahead of round 16. No matter who you have in your halves it’s hard not to consider a gun available at a mid-range price a must buy.

FIVE-EIGHTH

Not considered due to Origin — Kalyn Ponga, Cameron Munster

* Disclosure on position — I don’t consider any of the bye round options at this position to be genuine ‘keepers’ through to the end with the likes of Ponga/Munster/Cody Walker/Shaun Johnson all ahead of them. As such trading a player discussed here should only be done if you are trade rich.

Matt Moylan (FLB)

After a long lay-off due to a hamstring injury, Moylan returned in round 11 and was involved in everything with 13 runs, two try assists and three linebreak assists. Priced under $490K, in just 3% of teams and capable of putting up a run of big scores there is certainly upside here. I considered Moylan to be priced ‘unders’ in the pre-season and on that basis he remains so. If everything clicks for him then he can score in the range of the four players I list above — but he can find an injury (has failed to play out a season in the past five years) so one for the brave.

Anthony Milford

‘The Milfs’ scores have fallen far away from the heady day of 2015-17 when he rocked a 65-70PPG average and the former excitement machine is now very much more ‘meh’ than ‘mesmerising’. Milford has played three good games in the past five and shown that when he’s on he’s still capable of posting big scores. My issue is that he is now priced pretty close to his best and once the byes are over his erratic nature means you would not be likely to trust him in your starting 17. I would much prefer to grab Shaun Johnson or Cody Walker (once his price falls thanks to the round 11 shocker) as a backup to Kalyn Ponga than the likes of Milford.

Esan Marsters (right) of the Tigers is a quality addition to any CTW. Picture: AAP Image/Darren England

CENTRE/WING

Not considered due to Origin — Latrell Mitchell, Corey Oates, Josh Addo-Carr, Daniel Tupou, Will Chambers, Josh Morris

Esan Marsters

In a position stacked with dual position eligible backrowers (Bateman, Nikora and Ma’u), Marsters is one of the few genuine backs that you will want to have in your rotation till the end. With a good base (30PPG), great offload game and goalkicking duties (though a few less missed kicks would be nice thanks Esan), Marsters is flirting with 60/60 territory and that’s good areas for an outside back. His BE (70) means you could watch and wait this week or next if you have other priorities but you will want him come round 16 where he and the Tigers will matchup on an Origin-weakened Roosters and then you can hold and play with confidence till the end.

Bronson Xerri

With so many of the bye round CTW playing Origin this trade is more cash grab and a bye round body than a ‘keeper’ move. Xerri is set to soar in price following his massive 134 point game against the Dragons in round 11 and the Sharks draw (Eels, Raiders, Bulldogs) is a juicy one. His talent has been on display all season and just a few dropped passes at crucial times have been costly. If you are one of the small number of coaches without Xerri in your side slot him in now and then he will make an easy trade to the likes of Latrell Mitchell or a forward keeper via duals come round 17.

FULLBACK

Not considered due to Origin — Kalyn Ponga, James Tedesco, Cameron Munster

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

The only genuine ‘keeper’ fullback who is bye round eligible and not playing Origin, RTS will be massive for those who have him in the byes. After starting the season in sensational form there have been a couple of quiet games in the last five (48 against the Knights in round eight and 41 against the Broncos in round 11) but the other three games in that span were definitely ‘keeper’ country (78, 103, 79). The Warriors have a pretty decent draw over the next three weeks (an Origin depleted Storm, Titans and Panthers) so despite some big BEs looming RTS could and should provide plenty of points until the bye while holding much of his value at which point Tom Trbojevic will have had some games to test his hamstring and be ready to be acquired.

BONUS WEEKLY TRADE GUIDE

Round 13

Hooker — Cameron McInnes: has a low BE and provides great cover for anyone who is worried that Damien Cook could be rested post Origin I.

FRF — Andrew Fifita: When you have the chance to grab the FRF with the third best average for under $540K you should take it. Sio Siua Taukeiaho could be taken a week early if you already have some others listed here.

CTW — Bronson Xerri: A cash grab but also has the potential to post very good scores over next month.

Five-Eighth/FLB — Matt Moylan: This move could wait a week but with Parramatta on the horizon Moylan could go large in round 13.

2RF — Mitch Barnett: Not quite keeper status but a very PODish body that should serve you well until the bye.

Round 14

Hooker — Cameron Smith: should have shed around $25K with a big BE in round 14 and while he has a high ownership the old warhorse is still a reliable backup to Cook.

CTW/2RF — John Bateman: is not bye round eligible but the chance to pick up the best scoring CTW for $540K should not be missed.

FRF/2RF — Sio Siua Taukeiaho: Should be around $510K this week and at that price is the buy of the week.

2RF — Ryan Matterson: Should have dropped a little cash in the week before and now be available around $590K. Origin selection only an injury to others away but a nice biscuit with which to risk it.

2RF: Tohu Harris — bit of a gamble as Tohu’s a bit below ‘keeper grade’. However, at $490K and facing Titans/Panthers and Origin depleted Knights (in NZ) over the next three weeks he could be a good source of points.

Round 15

CTW — Esan Marsters: should be ripe for the picking — and crucially by waiting till this week you are not buying him ahead of the Pacific Island Tests over the stand-alone Origin week.

HFB/Five-eighth — Shaun Johnson: This move could wait till just before round 16 and will depend on whether SJ returns in round 13 and if he posts a big score between now and then.

FLB — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck: Could be around $580K at this point and should provide great points and a bit of cash rise who you can then move on to Turbo ahead of round 17.