SuperCoach NRL SuperTrade Week: Winners and losers from every team’s run home
LOOKING for the edge in this SuperCoach NRL SuperTrade week? Rob Sutherland analyses the strength of schedule for every team to close out 2018 and identifies some potential POD winners.
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IT’S SuperTrade week in NRL SuperCoach — presented by hipages — and we’ve got five trades available to set our team up for the final bye round of the season.
But I urge you to look a bit further afield than just the round 17 bye and use the trade bonanza at your hands to set your team up for the final run home.
With that opportunity in mind let’s take a look a the run home for every squad and how the strength of schedule for each position for each team looks over the back half of the season.
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Methodology
I have started this analysis from round 18. Doing so avoids the thorny issue of Origin selection/impact of Denver Test etc. Most player should have already made their trade plans for round 16 and 17 and I am attempting to identify any strength-of-schedule wrinkles that will favour one side or another.
Unless stated otherwise I have used the 2018 season rankings as they provide the greatest data set and therefore should be a better guide as to what one can expect going forward. Where recent form is significantly different I have noted this.
BRONCOS
Schedule
Warriors (H), Panthers (H), Sharks (H), Bulldogs (A), Cowboys (A), Rabbitohs (H), Roosters (A), Sea Eagles (H)
Initial thoughts
Five from eight at home is always a nice bonus and the Broncos will need that as four of their toughest opponents (Warriors, Panthers, Sharks and Rabbitohs) are home matches.
Positional wrinkles
Broncos CTW look to have a particularly nice run from 18-21 with the Bulldogs the worst team at the position, Warriors fourth worst and Panthers in bottom half. Conversely the CTW will find it tough to close the year with all bar the Sea Eagles defending stoutly at the position. Corey Oates ($483,000), is a player of interest here. The bullocking wannabe 2RF has scored 70+ five times this season and his scores against looming opponents this season read well. Oates averages 64.7 against the above in 2018 with scores of 54 (NQC), 90 (NZL), 96 (STH), 59 (BUL), 17 (MNL), 64 (SYD) and 73 (SHA). At the other end of the team the Broncos FRF should also fare well with the Cowboys, Bulldogs, Sea Eagles and Roosters being particularly poor and only the Panthers and Rabbitohs defending at an elite level. Unfortunately none of the Broncos FRF stocks are elite, though Tevita Pangai Jr ($502,600) has shown the ability to put up almost keeper numbers when given the minutes. Those still holding and hoping that 5/8 Anthony Milford ($413,300) will prove a POD are out of luck I’m afraid. The Rabbitohs, Roosters, Sharks, Warriors and even Cowboys defend stoutly against the position with only the Panthers, Bulldogs and Sea Eagles proving good scoring opportunities for opposing playmakers.
BULLDOGS
Schedule
Rabbitohs (H), Eels (A), Tigers (H), Broncos (H), Sea Eagles (A), Warriors (H), Dragons (A), Sharks (H)
Initial thoughts
Five from eight at home is really six as the Eels match is at ANZ so travel won’t be the thing that holds back the Bulldogs, talent though … It’s a pretty even mix in terms of opposition with the Dragons, Sharks and Rabbitohs looking particularly hard and the Eels, Tigers and Sea Eagles particularly easy match-ups on season-long rankings. It should be noted that if one looks at rankings over the last five rounds then the Bulldogs might finally find their scoring mojo with the Tigers and Broncos the easiest teams to score on (with the Bulldogs) and the Eels and Warriors the second easiest.
Positional wrinkles
The 2RF of the Bulldogs likely houses the only players you are going to own from the Belmore battlers in 2018 in Rhyse Martin ($356,500) — and that’s assuming he makes the squad (NB: Raymond Faitala-Mariner [$460,300] would have been listed here if he had not gone and broken his hand in Denver the week after I bought him …) and they face some pretty positive match-ups with the Sharks, Eels, Tigers, Broncos and Sea Eagles all proving particularly generous to opposing 2RF. Those who bought John Olive ($221,600) as bye coverage would be pleased to see some ‘plus’ match-ups in the Eels, Warriors, Tigers and Sea Eagles, but if Olive is in your starting 17 for round 18 onwards then you have bigger problems than matchup analysis.
RAIDERS
Schedule
Cowboys (H), Sharks (A), Storm (A), Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Roosters (H), Rabbitohs (H), Warriors (A)
Initial thoughts
It’s a pretty nasty draw for the Raiders to close the season as they will face six of the eight best SuperCoach defensive teams and the Cowboys are the best of the bottom eight defensive table leaving only the Tigers as a genuine “easy” game.
Positional wrinkles
If you, like me, were thinking Jarod Croker ($454,900) looks like pretty good round 17 bye coverage that will then prove a decent keeper to the finish you’d better take another look at the schedule above. The Raiders are drawn to play the best (Sharks), equal second-best (Storm and Cowboys), fourth-best (Roosters), seventh-best (Souths) and ninth-best (Panthers) teams when it comes to defending at CTW. Ouch.
The draw is kinder when it comes to Raiders’ 2RF and it is there that two major PODs loom for the lime green. Joseph Tapine ($574,300) is averaging 47 in base stats over the past five weeks (and almost 10 PPG in busted tackles per game over that span) and with under five per cent ownership he’s a very solid buy. If you want to veer even further into POD territory, and can wait till after Origin to make the trade, then Josh Papalii ($601,400) is on fire with a 5RA of 74.2 (averaging 52 PPG in base over that span) and has just three per cent ownership. Either, or both considering Tapine is available at FRF, could be that player that wins you a head-to-head.
TITANS
Schedule
Roosters (H), Knights (A), Warriors (H), Eels (A), Panthers (H), Sea Eagles (A), Storm (H), Cowboys (H)
Initial thoughts
Quite the mixed bag for the Titans to close out 2018 with tough games against the Storm and Roosters (both at home) and potential quality matches against the Knights, Eels and Sea Eagles (all away).
Positional wrinkles
On season averages the Knights, Eels and Roosters loom as plus match-ups for FRF and as a result Ryan James ($624,800) owners would be licking their lips. However, if you look at the averages over the past five rounds all three teams have toughened up in the middle and no longer look like the easy marks they once were.
Currently rocking a 5RA of 59.2 Ashley Taylor ($451,800) is not a name often thrown up when talking elite HFB, and for good reason considering the margin by which Shaun Johnson leads the field. However, the Titans’ final eight opponents have shown a weakness against halves with the Eels, Knights, Sea Eagles and Panthers all in the bottom half of the table when it comes to defending the position over 2018.
Veteran fullback Michael Gordon ($466,400) is the third most-purchased Titan this round off the back of his monster 138 points against the Bulldogs in round 15 but I don’t see that being a long-term play. While Gordon does have two very good scores against final eight opponents (100 against Manly in round five and 84 against the Panthers in round six) his other scores are 49 (Roosters in round 12), 28 (Knights in round 11), 29 (Warriors round two), 44 (Storm round 10) and 32 (Cowboys round seven) are more of a guide as to what you should expect over the concluding stages.
STORM
Schedule
Sea Eagles (A), Warriors (A), Raiders (H), Rabbitohs (A), Sharks (H), Eels (H), Titans (A), Panthers (H)
Initial thoughts
Pretty balanced draw here for the Storm, splitting the two toughest games (Rabbitohs, Sharks) home and away and then finishing at home against the Panthers.
Positional wrinkles
Melbourne five-eighth Cameron Munster ($610,900) is being touted as a POD pick over the back half of the season and it is easy to see why with his 3RA of 80.7 and 5RA of 73.4. However, the draw looks a tough one for him with the Rabbitohs and Raiders the equal-best teams at defending the position and the Sharks not far behind. The Warriors also defend above their average at the position and even a “bad” team like the Eels are significantly better against five-eighth. There are no other “plus” or “minus” match-ups that I can see.
SEA EAGLES
Schedule
Storm (H), Roosters (H), Panthers (H), Sharks (A), Bulldogs (H), Titans (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (A)
Initial thoughts
Seriously tough opening run of four games though having the first three at home will be a big help. Conversely the final four games are all good match-ups that suggest points could be on offer.
Positional wrinkles
Tom Trbojevic’s ($573,600) form post-Origin (a 3RA of 55.0) is nobody’s idea of good, but the Titans have been feasted on by fullbacks all year and since round 10 the only team worse against the position has been the Storm. The Bulldogs, Tigers and Broncos also position as positive match-ups for Turbo. With a 3RA of 76.3, I’d be surprised if Martin Taupau ($639,200) was not already in your team, but you should temper your expectations of big Marty’s output in at least some of the games over the back quarter of the season. The Storm (1st) and Panthers (3rd) have been top three defenders of FRF all season. The Roosters and Titans have gone from being poor against FRF in the early part of 2018 to being equal third best (Titans) and fifth best (Roosters) over the past five rounds. That’s the bad, the good is the favourable match-ups against the Dogs, Tigers and Broncos — and the fact that Marty scored 74 on the Storm in round 11 — maybe Kapow is match-up proof!
KNIGHTS
Schedule
Eels (H), Titans (H), Cowboys (A), Tigers (H), Warriors (A), Panthers (A), Sharks (A), Dragons (H)
Initial thoughts
Very much a tale of two halves here with the first four games being good on paper and the last four looking very tough with all four being against top half-defensive teams and three of those away from home.
Positional wrinkles
When you talk Newcastle SuperCoach you are really talking Kalyn Ponga ($615,300)* and it doesn’t get better for fullbacks than consecutive home matches against the Eels and Titans. The Gold Coast have conceded the most points to FLB all year — and it isn’t even close. The second-most points have been leaked by the Eels. Ponga put 98 on the Titans in round 11 and 75 on the Eels two weeks later, he’s sure to shine in rounds 18 and 19. After that the opposition defences get stiffer but regardless I think Ponga will be the topscoring FLB over final eight rounds just as he has been over the first 15 rounds. * Yes I know Lachlan Fitzgibbon has the third-most SC points at his position right now but I’d be surprised if he finished top eight for overall and I expect him to drop out of the top 10 on average by season’s end.
COWBOYS
Schedule
Raiders (A), Dragons (H), Knights (H), Roosters (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Eels (H), Titans (A)
Initial thoughts
Match-ups against the three most generous teams in the league in the Titans, Knights and Eels can only be described as tasty. The Broncos are also very much a plus matchup with the sixth most generous defence over the length of the season and the (equally) most generous over the past five rounds. On the other hand the Raiders have been solid all year and positively stout over the past five while the Roosters, Dragons and Sharks are all top-tier defensive units — though all have their positional frailties.
Positional wrinkles
I fully expect Jason Taumalolo ($689,000) to finish the season as a top three 2RF which is hardly the bravest call considering he leads the position by over 80 points already … just be aware that the Knights defend 2RF far better than their average across all positions and the Titans have improved their defence through the middle in recent rounds. What about the immortal in waiting Johnathan Thurston ($398,600) I hear you say, will the Cowboys get their *ahem* stuff together and see the great JT out in the style he deserves? Well, maybe. Surely the Cowboys will lift over the final two rounds to see their halfback maestro out a winner and halves have been feasting on the Eels and Titans all season. Thurston put 78 on the Titans in round seven, and, erm, just 36 on the Eels in round 14; sooo so much for that then.
WARRIORS
Schedule
Broncos (A), Storm (H), Titans (A), Dragons (A), Knights (H), Bulldogs (A), Panthers (H), Raiders (H)
Initial thoughts
Tough draw to finish with the Storm and Dragons staunch defensively, the Panthers and Raiders moving towards “staunch” and the Titans improving — albeit off a very low base. Conversely the Broncos are slipping down the defensive rankings as are the Bulldogs.
Positional wrinkles
The Warriors have just three players with more than 10 per cent ownership and the draw is good for one, bad for another and kinda “meh” for the third. Firstly the good news, halves have scored well against the Broncos, Titans, Knights, Bulldogs and Panthers on average and Shaun Johnson ($666,700) has scored well on all those teams that he has played so far scoring 82 (Titans, Rd 2) and 82 (Broncos, Rd 6). The Raiders, Storm and Dragons are much better against halves and in fact SJ7 scored just 35 when he played Canberra in round three. Dare I suggest you’d consider benching the great man against these three? Tohu Harris ($523,300) has the misfortune of drawing the four best 2RF defenders in the league in the Storm, Dragons, Panthers and Raiders. That said, I still have Harris in my top four 2RF to close out the season and he scored 71 against the Titans (Rd 2), 74 against the Raiders (Rd 3) and 79 against the Broncos (Rd 6) so he’s in fair form against some of the other teams he’ll face. Peta Hiku ($435,800) is the other Warrior with solid ownership and I think a fair percentage of those owners are “zombies” who made their team early and have stopped playing. Hiku has dropped off over the past five rounds and would only be a matchup play against teams like the Titans, Knights and Bulldogs if you do own him.
EELS
Schedule
Knights (A), Bulldogs (H), Rabbitohs (A), Titans (H), Dragons (H), Storm (A), Cowboys (A), Roosters (H)
Initial thoughts
A draw on the tougher side of medium with the Rabbitohs, Dragons, Storm and Roosters as tough a quartet of opposition as any side could draw. For the reasons below I’m not going to waste too much of our time worrying about the Eels.
Positional wrinkles
The least SuperCoach relevant team in the league with just one player, George Jennings ($432,600), enjoying over 10 per cent ownership and that rate is dropping. Little appeal to any Eels so let’s move on shall we.
PANTHERS
Schedule
Sharks (A), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A), Knights (H), Warriors (A), Storm (A)
Initial thoughts
Two easier games (Titans, Knights), two hard games (Sharks, Storm) and then four in the middle — three of them away (Broncos, Sea Eagles and Warriors) so all in all I’d say the road home will be tougher than most.
Positional wrinkles
The draw looks a nice one for Nathan Cleary ($509,600) who should be an absolute bargain post-Origin at around $480K. The Titans are the worst team at defending HFB, the Sea Eagles fourth worst and Knights fifth worst. Of the remainder the Broncos are sixth worst at defending against halves (third worst over the past five rounds) and even the usually stingy Sharks and, slightly less stingy, Warriors have been giving up points to playmakers over the past five weeks. Not really a “keeper”, but still highly owned with the bye looming, Viliame Kikau ($489,300) would be at best a matchup-dependant selection, and one you will want to do your research on as “easy” teams like the Knights, Titans and Sea Eagles have been defending above their overall average in the 2RF.
SHARKS
Schedule
Panthers (A), Raiders (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (H), Storm (A), Cowboys (H), Knights (H), Bulldogs (A)
Initial thoughts
Three harder games in Panthers, Raiders and Storm and three very much easier games in Sea Eagles, Knights and Bulldogs make this draw one I would tip into the slightly easier than harder category.
Positional wrinkles
Val Holmes ($625,600) and Jesse Ramien ($563,000) are both top 10-averaging CTW over the past three rounds and both loom as finals winners with matches against the Knights and Bulldogs to close out the season as both those clubs are at the very bottom of the ladder when it comes to defending outside backs. The Raiders, Panthers, Storm and Knights have been the competition’s four best defensive units when it comes to stopping FRF over the past five weeks — perhaps denting Andrew Fifita’s ($614,100) appeal? In addition, Fifita averages significantly below his career average against the Raiders, Broncos and Bulldogs, he’s owned by over a third of SuperCoaches so is no one’s idea of a POD and Aaron Woods just arrived at the Shire. It’s risky to run without the top-averaging FRF in 2018 but there are arguments for doing so.
DRAGONS
Schedule
Tigers (H*), Cowboys (A), Roosters (A), Warriors (H), Eels (A), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (H*), Knights (A)
Initial thoughts
The best draw of any team for the run home with just one “tough” match-up in the Roosters, two tricky match-ups in the Warriors and Cowboys and then the rest are gravy.
Positional wrinkles
Note the asterisks above? They denote home matches at Jubilee Oval — a ground at which Gareth Widdop ($484,400) absolutely carves the opposition. Just limping along with a 3RA of 43.7 and 5RA of 48.4 I’ve been a pretty vocal doubter in the Pommy playmaker but that draw is hard to resist. Unsurprisingly the Tigers, Knights, Bulldogs and Eels have been poor at defending the CTW and the Warriors have not been much better. You’ll want at least one of Tim Lafai ($428,800), Euan Aitken ($470,400) and/or Nene MacDonald ($383,600) in your squad for the run home and you could even make a case for two of them.
RABBITOHS
Schedule
Bulldogs (A), Tigers (A), Eels (H), Storm (H), Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Raiders (A), Tigers (H)
Initial thoughts
Another team set to enjoy twin tastes of Tiger over the final eight rounds, the Rabbitohs have a generally favourable draw to close out the year with only the Storm, Roosters and Raiders (A) likely to limit this high-flying SuperCoach squad.
Positional wrinkles
The Tigers, Eels, Bulldogs, Raiders and Broncos are all below average at defending FLB and so Rabbitohs FLB Alex Johnston ($508,200) is the man to take advantage of that fact. AJ has a 3RA of 70.3 and that INCLUDES the five points he scored in round 11 against the Cowboys. The Rabbitohs do not play the round 17 bye so you’ll probably not want to get Johnston until round 18, and since he has a -32 BE you’ll likely pay a $60K premium for waiting that long, but he’s a POD playing for a red-hot team who can score tons for fun and I for one am pretty tempted.
ROOSTERS
Schedule
Titans (A), Sea Eagles (A), Dragons (H), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A), Raiders (A), Broncos (H), Eels (A)
Initial thoughts
An even draw for the Roosters with a couple of “easy” games in Eels and Sea Eagles matched up with tough games against the Dragons and Rabbitohs. Currently point difference could prove the difference between finishing fourth or fifth so the Roosters have plenty to play for regardless of opposition.
Positional wrinkles
CTWs Blake Ferguson ($625,100) and Latrell Mitchell ($553,400) are putting up definite keeper numbers this season with Fergo leading the position for total points, 3RA and 5RA. However, the Roosters’ draw is not favourable for CTW with only the Eels being genuinely bad and the rest solid at worst.
TIGERS
Schedule
Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Bulldogs (A), Knights (A), Raiders (A), Dragons (H), Sea Eagles (H), Rabbitohs (A)
Initial thoughts
As mentioned above, the Tigers have the Dragons and Rabbitohs twice each in the final eight rounds so add in the Raiders away and even with the Bulldogs, Knights and Sea Eagles filling out the remaining three slots it’s a tough draw.
Positional wrinkles
With the injury to Mahe Fonua ($438,400) and Matt Eisenhuth ($477,900) being close but not quite a keeper there is only one Tiger to own and that’s Esan Marsters ($550,800). As good as they are going overall the Dragons and Rabbitohs are comparatively porous at CTW and so you could probably play Marsters reasonably safely as his high workrate and love of an offload makes him almost matchup proof.