SuperCoach NRL: Buyer beware when it comes to premium priced CTW
Investing in premium SuperCoach CTW players to start the season is fraught with risk. Rob Sutherland breaks down the stats that suggest it’s a fool’s game.
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Investing in premium SuperCoach CTW players to start the season - is it a fool’s game?
The stats below would certainly suggest it is, or at the very least that it’s fraught with so much uncertainty that those of you who are considering paying top dollar at the position would factor the risk into the price.
THE STATS
I compiled a table of each year’s top ten overall scoring CTW dating back to 2013 (see below).
As I want to analyse the difficulty that true CTW face in duplicating top-ten performances, I have edited the list to remove players who were dual-position eligible in earlier years but no longer are.
I have also excluded players who would have been listed as only FLB if the criteria applied today were applied in earlier years.
I have retained those SC gifts like Simon Mannering, Bodene Thompson and Tohu Harris who were CTW/2RF eligible for one season because once they had transitioned to the 2RF they lost their CTW designation and are not repeat entrants as a result.
The table, with exclusions noted below it, looks like this:
2013: Darius Boyd and Greg Inglis would have been FLB only in 2013 under current criteria and so are not included
2014: Greg Inglis and Michael Gordon would have been FLB only in 2014 under current criteria and so are not included
2015: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is not eligible at CTW under current criteria and so is not included
2016: Tom Trbojevic, Cameron Munster and Jack Wighton are not eligible at CTW under current criteria and so are not included
2017: Tom Trbojevic not eligible at CTW under current criteria and so is not included
THE STARS
Just eight players have achieved back-to-back top-ten overall point scoring performances since 2013, just four of those elite CTW have done it twice.
Will Chambers
2013 (Fifth) - 2014 (Seventh)
2014 (Seventh) - 2015 (Fifth)
Jason Nightingale
2013 (Eighth) - 2014 (Fourth)
2016 (Seventh) - 2017 (Eighth)
Jarrod Croker
2014 (First) - 2015 (Second)
2015 (Second) - 2016 (First)
Semi Radradra
2014 (Sixth) - 2015 (First)
Dane Gagai
2014 (Ninth) - 2015 (Fourth)
James Roberts
2015 (Third) - 2016 (Eighth)
2016 (Eighth) - 2017 (Sixth)
Jordan Rapana
2016 (Fourth) - 2017 (First)
David Nofoaluma
2016 (Sixth) - 2017 (Third)
Clearly recording repeat high-scoring seasons is extremely tough as a CTW.
That said at least one player has achieved that feat in each of the years above except one - last year.
The closest a 2017 top-ten player went to backing up in 2018 was Jordan Rapana, who finished first in 2017 but 14th in 2018.
LISTEN! Resident SuperCoach experts Tom Sangster and Tim Williams have the lowdown on the players to target and avoid in 2019.
SO ARE PREMIUM CTW A TOTAL BUST?
Well, no.
Goal-kicking CTW like Jarrod Croker clearly have value.
And on that basis some 2018 stars like Esan Marsters, Latrell Mitchell and Jamayne Isaako have to be serious chances to finish in the top-ten in 2019 provided they can avoid injury - and their team provides enough shots on goal.
Similarly hardworking CTW who have a solid base like Will Chambers, Euan Aitken and James Roberts can deliver top-ten scoring - though still need to be on the end of attacking moves to average anywhere near premium forwards.
Lastly, as ultimate dark horse Jason Nightingale goes to show, it never hurts to play just enough games at fullback every year to get your scores up yet retain CTW eligibility - take note Will Hopoate.
IF PREMIUM CTW ARE NOT A BUST WHAT ARE THEY?
In one word: risky.
Premium priced forwards do not rely on others to score, their base point productivity in effect makes them masters of their own domain.
With such a large number of cheapies available at the position along with two 2RF/CTW in John Bateman and Kurt Capewell who should at least start 2019 in the forwards this looks like it could be a prime year to start without a premium-priced CTW.
At least that’s what I intend to do so it makes sense to me.
What are your plans in CTW at this stage of the pre-season?
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