SuperCoach NRL: Buy, Hold, Sell for round four of 2019 season

With injury carnage galore and a couple of fallen guns ripe for the picking you don’t want to miss this week’s edition of SuperCoach Buy, Hold and Sell.

• Round 4: SuperCoach Teams Analysis

• NRL Physio: Casualty Ward

‘Never trade a gun’ is a commandment of SuperCoach for good reason.

If you doubt me, just ask the 1,800 James Tedesco owners who sold the Rooster ahead of round three how their Friday night panned out.

But sometimes, sometimes you’ve got to cut those ties that bind, and find yourself a new idol.

Where the trade is forced by injury it is an easy call. When the trade is forced by a positional/tactical change that just is not working it’s tougher because you likely live in hope that the coach *cough Nathan Brown* will see the light and put your man back to his ‘true’ position. When the trade is forced by a lack of form it’s the toughest call of all, because SuperCoaches are optimists and prefer to believe that our guy will find his form rather than keep stinking it up.

Without further ado let’s begin this week’s SuperCoach NRL Buy, Sell, Hold.

Who to Buy, Hold and Sell ahead of round four of the 2019 NRL season.

SELL

Gareth Widdop ($472,500) 5/8 | FLB

On Thursday night Widdop suffered his third right shoulder dislocation in the past eight months, and in a perverse way the injury would come as a blessed relief to his SuperCoach owners. With Widdop a long-term scratching, owners now no longer need to hold on to him in the hope that a shift back to his preferred 5/8 role would see a recovery in scoring. Rather a trade is now a priority for Widdop’s 11,500 owners. Sadly, the poor start to the season sees Widdop lose $80,900 from his starting price.

Recommendation: SELL

Matt Moylan ($476,300) 5/8 | FLB

Moylan’s hamstring injury does not appear to be as serious as Widdop’s shoulder concern, but unless there is some very surprising news after scans this week, it looks like the flaxen-haired flyer from the Shire is set for a four week period of rehab and that is too long to carry him. Unlike Widdop who had been posting stinkers, Moylan was fair in round one (52 points), good in round two (70 points) and looked okay in round three before the injury so this trade hurts as, were it not for the injury, few would be making it. But there’s a silver lining to that cloud, and it is that the previous solid games mean even though injury limited Moylan to just 31 points in round three, he has only lost $7,200 dollars from his starting price of $483,500.

Recommendation: SELL

Nathan Cleary (L) will benefit from the return of Viliame Kikau for the match against the Tigers. Picture: Phil Hillyard

Nathan Cleary ($523,500) HFB

While Cleary played the entire 80 minutes in round three he has been reported as carrying a minor groin niggle. Normally this would not be enough to warrant a mention in the injury related trade section. However, the groin issue saw Cleary relinquish the goalkicking duties to James Maloney in round three and there is speculation that this situation may continue for a week or two. Goal-kicking points are what elevate Cleary into ‘keeper’ country and the loss of those, or the threat thereof - alongside any limitations the groin niggle may place on his speed with the ball - are a definite concern for owners. In addition, the Panthers have been pretty putrid in 2019 scoring just 30 points in three games which is the second fewest in the league ahead of only the Titans. The one shining light, other than a vague belief that Penrith will find their groove in attack at some point, is the return of Viliame Kikau for the clash against the Wests Tigers on Friday night. The Penrith left edge, where Cleary tends to play, has looked anaemic without Kikau’s ability to draw defenders and offload and his return is a boost.

Recommendation: SELL - I feel I should explain this one as it is not as clear cut as the two above...I still believe Cleary is a phenomenal talent, and if the only issue were his dip in form then I would have a HOLD recommendation. However, groin injuries can linger and Maloney is a more than adequate goalkicker so there is no need for Penrith to hurry in restoring the job to Cleary. So it’s a reluctant sell from me to fund the likes of Ponga/Turbo/RTS.

Josh Papalii ($548,700) 2RF | FRF

Big Josh Papalii had been a POD pick for the last three seasons playing big minutes on an edge for the Raiders and averaging 63PPG, 66PPG and 64PPG. However, as part of a strategy to field a smaller more mobile pack the Green Machine released two big boppers Junior Paulo and Shannon Boyd for 2019 and moved Papalii to prop. Playing considerably less minutes in the new role, nor running at quaking halves in the defensive line, means Papalii’s scores are suffering as a result. Papalii is averaging 45.7PPG, has lost $47,200 after round three and has a BE of 95 for round four. Unlike the Ponga move below, it looks like the positional shift that is the cause of Papalii’s SuperCoach pain is actually helping his side in real life and barring injury I think the front row is where he is likely to stay for the foreseeable.

Recommendation: SELL

Josh Hodgson ($548,100) HOK

We’ll start with the good news, Josh Hodgson had his first decent game last week with two try assists helping him to a score of 60. That total comes on the back of low scores in rounds one (47) and two (33). Still owned by almost 15,000 players, Hodgson shed $44,000 after round three and faces a BE of 92 in round four. Hodgson’s base is almost 10PPG down on his previous seasons in the NRL and his running game is nearly non-existent. Worrying signs for anyone thinking of riding out this form slump.

Recommendation: SELL

Josh Hodgson’s base stats have plummeted in 2019. Picture: AAP Image/Rohan Thomson

THE HOLDS

As always, my word count is burgeoning and I still want to discuss the best buy options for the round below so other than Kalyn Ponga I’ll be brief here.

Kalyn Ponga ($552,900) 5/8 | FLB

For those just joining us; Kalyn Ponga was a revelation playing fullback for the Knights in 2018 and then the decision was made to shift the youngster to the halves in 2019. That move has not gone particularly well. After looking out of sorts in round one (38 points), there were plenty of owners (and just general footy fans) hoping that an improved game in round two (62 points) signalled Kalyn Ponga was set to make a fist of playing in the halves. That optimistic balloon was popped in round three (24 points). Ponga’s ball carries are down from his 2018 numbers, there is a commensurate drop in tackle busts and most damningly he has not one linebreak to his name yet. Quite simply, Ponga at 5/8 is a SuperCoach killer. A cash killer too, Ponga shed ($61,400) after round three and with a BE of 100 there is more value set to leak. But then came the news that Newcastle had seen the light and will shift Ponga back to fullback for the round four game against the Dragons. I for one can’t wait to see if there is an immediate lift in SC output.

Recommendation: HOLD/BUY IN RD 5-6 - For Ponga owners the news that Ponga would return to fullback would be a welcome relief, for the rest of us we get a chance to watch and see how the move impacts his play and, thanks to the high BE, even if he plays well he should still drop a little in price and be ripe for the picking ahead of round five.

Shaun Johnson ($572,600) HFB | 5/8

Johnson was averaging just 43PPG after round two and owners were jumping off at a rapid rate ahead of round three. That was a mistake. SJ was in the middle of everything for the Sharks on the weekend scoring 77 points with two try assists, seven goals and a couple of forced dropouts to boot. Johnson has only lost $30K from his starting price and has a very achievable BE of 57.

Recommendation: HOLD

Latrell Mitchell of the Roosters (C) is a hold. Picture: AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts

Latrell Mitchell ($550,300) CTW

Another star who made a slow start to the season (44 points in round one and 29 in round two), Latrell finally posted a ‘keeper’ like score of 67 points in round three. Still yet to score a try in 2019, and the Roosters have barely hit their straps as yet so there are plenty of big games in the works. Over 5,000 SuperCoaches sold Mitchell last week and I seriously doubt they bought a player who scored more than Latrell did. Despite facing a high BE of 89 in round four, Mitchell is a gun and one you should hold if you have him and who you will want at some point if you don’t.

Recommendation: HOLD

Anthony Milford ($492,400) 5/8

Still yet to have a good game, but also yet to post a bad score, Milford is frustrating owners and Brisbane fans in equal measure. Scores of 48, 51 and 47 make it hard to justify a trade, but are also nothing to get too enthused about. Promisingly, Milford upped his running game last week and that’s the secret sauce that his game had been lacking so far in 2019. Give him another week.

Recommendation: HOLD

BUYS

Junior Paulo ($407,300) FRF

I was all in on Paulo in the pre-season and then the big man went and injured his hamstring ruling him out of round one. After missing the opening game of the season, Paulo made an immediate impact in round two playing 51 minutes and scoring 60 points. Last week Paulo went even better scoring 83 points in 62 minutes. That round two score was inflated by a couple of linebreak assists, but that’s what Paulo can do with his ability to draw defenders and throw offloads. With 48 points in base both weeks and the allure of attacking stats in bunches I’m all over this guy at $400K. Handy cover for first round of byes is a bonus.

David Klemmer ($548,600) FRF | 2RF

Always a PPM monster, Klemmer has been asked to play big minutes at his new club the Knights. ‘Crazy Eyes’ has delivered big time, averaging 65PPG in 63 MPG at a PPM of 1.03. The most impressive part of Klemmer’s stat line for me is that he is scoring his points almost solely in base stats. With handy dual-position status and priced below - yet averaging more, than premium options like Andrew Fifita and Martin Taupau - it’s easy to see the appeal here.

David Klemmer has been a base stat monster for the Knights. Picture: Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images

Jack Bird ($362,300) CTW | 5/8

The Brisbane left edge is humming along nicely and Jack Bird is a big part of that. Averaging a solid, though not spectacular, 31PPG in base and looking fit Bird is still excellent value - though with a BE of 1 this is probably the last week you will be able to get him in for under $400K. For those looking to move on an injured Matt Moylan at 5/8 you could grab Bird now and then wait a couple more weeks for a CTW cow to fatten then sell the cow, move Bird to CTW and grab a bottomed out Ponga.

Tom Trbojevic ($691,200) FLB

Turbo is back baby! Having missed the opening two weeks due to a hamstring strain, Tom Trbojevic terrorised the Warriors in round three scoring two tries, setting up two more and busting 10 (pretty inept) tackles for a huge 152 points. Turbo is awfully expensive, and tends to score points in bunches rather than solid accumulation - for example he was on 65 points after the opening 20 minutes against the Warriors and had added just two more points by halftime - but if you can handle the rollercoaster there really isn’t a more fun ride to be on in SuperCoach.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck ($568,200) FLB

If your budget doesn’t quite stretch to Tommy Turbo, and even if it does, then RTS should be someone you consider this week. The Warriors’ skipper has been the team’s best by a mile and even when his side went like absolute filth against the Sea Eagles in round three, Tuivasa-Sheck still managed to score 69 points thanks to his tireless hit-ups and dancing feet (two linebreaks and seven tacklebusts). RTS won’t bust out the huge scores that Trbojevic Jr will, but he looks to have rediscovered the form of 2015, and the $123K you save on buying the Kiwi could prove the difference in a significant upgrade to a fallen gun like Angus Crichton in a couple of weeks.

John Bateman ($470,600) 2RF | CTW

There were some concerns that Bateman’s move to edge backrow as opposed to lock might affect his SuperCoach impact in round three, but the Englishman proved those baseless with 56 points in base, six tackle busts and a couple of linebreaks totalling 96 points. those jumping on this week are paying $70K more than anyone lucky enough to have him beforehand but even at that price it’s a solid buy.

Cody Walker ($576,200) 5/8

I was going to wax lyrical about the South Sydney playmaker but he’s in doubt this week with a shoulder injury and I’m well over my 2,000 word limit so maybe I’ll save this one for next week.

Good luck all.