SuperCoach NRL 2019: Strength of Schedule analysis for every club
We analyse the draw for the first two months of the NRL season and identify those players who are set for a supercharged SuperCoach start.
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Teddy or Turbo, Milford or Morgan, the pre-season finds many an NRL SuperCoach tossing up between the merits of players with seemingly equal claims to a position in your squad.
While they may finish the season on par, it’s always nice to get off to a flyer and start making money fast.
To that end we have waded through the opening third of the 2019 draw for every club to identify which teams should shine from the start - and as a bonus I’ve identified a player, or players to watch from every club.
METHODOLOGY
We have ranked each team from easiest to score against to hardest using the average SuperCoach points conceded per team in 2018. And just to head off the obvious criticism at the pass, as it were, I know past performance is no guarantee of future returns. For example, I expect a team like Newcastle who have recruited well in the off-season will improve defensively - but there’s enough subjectivity worked into my assessments below so I figured it best to start from an objective point and 2018 defensive performance is that point.
SuperCoach defensive rankings (worst to best):
16. Gold Coast Titans
15. Newcastle Knights
14. Canterbury Bulldogs
13. Parramatta Eels
12. Manly Sea Eagles
11. Wests Tigers
10. Brisbane Broncos
9. St George Illawarra Dragons
8. North Queensland Cowboys
7. Canberra Raiders
6. NZ Warriors
5. Penrith Panthers
4. Cronulla Sharks
3. South Sydney Rabbitohs
2. Sydney Roosters
1. Melbourne Storm
Assigning a team’s defensive rank as ‘Strength of Schedule Points’ now we can rank each team’s early season 2019 draw from easiest to hardest.
2019 FIRST EIGHT ROUNDS STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
1. RAIDERS: Titans (A) (16), Storm (1), Knights (15), Cowboys (A) (8), Eels (13), Broncos (10), Sea Eagles (A) (12), Panthers (5). TOTAL: 80
Analysis: On paper the Raiders have the easiest draw to start the season but it’s not a total cake walk. With trips up to the Gold Coast and Cowboys early the heat will be on for Canberra’s big pack in those games, and Manly are a much better team at Brookvale than away. Ricky Stuart’s men have one five day break ahead of their Round Two clash against the Storm and one six day break ahead of Rd 8 match against the Panthers. Playing the Storm and Broncos at home is a bonus, keep in mind that the ‘home’ match against the Panthers in round eight is to be played in Wagga Wagga.
Players to watch: Skipper Jarrod Croker (CTW - $509,700) had a ‘bad’ injury affected season in 2018 and yet still finished with the ninth best average at his position. The Raiders scored the seventh most points of any team in 2018 and there are points on offer early in 2019. Croker and his left edge should see more ball due to the injury to right edge winger Jordan Rapana to start the season. The good draw, extra attacking opportunity and goalkicking duties once again see Croker entice - especially at a $90K discount to similar goalkicking CTW premium option Latrell Mitchell and $60K discount on Esan Marsters. I’d add a word of caution at jumping on fellow Raider Elliott Whitehead (2RF/CTW - $457,700). Yes Whitehead is now available at CTW/2RF, but the Englishman’s base workload has dropped every year since he came into the NRL in 2016 and his 2018 scores were boosted by scoring 10 tries. However, fellow Englishman John Bateman (2RF $400,000) - who looks to have a very SuperCoach friendly style of game - is on my radar.
LISTEN! Resident SuperCoach experts Tom Sangster and Tim Williams have the lowdown on the players to target and avoid in 2019.
2. WARRIORS: Bulldogs (14), Tigers (A) (11), Sea Eagles (A) (12), Titans (16), Rabbitohs (A) (3), Cowboys (8), Storm (A) (1), Knights (15). TOTAL: 80
Analysis: The Warriors could get off to a flyer in 2019 (especially if they can secure a quality half to replace Shaun Johnson) with a pretty cushy opening four matches of the season. The team has one five day break ahead of Rd 7 match against the Storm (which is the ANZAC DAY match in Melbourne) and consecutive six day breaks ahead of Rd 3 and 4. The consecutive ‘Away’ games in Rd 2 and 3 is misleading as the Rd 3 match against the Sea Eagles is to be played at Christchurch Stadium in New Zealand. The two hardest games of the period (Rabbitohs and Storm) are both away matches.
Players to watch: Tohu Harris (2RF - $564,400) starts 2019 at a discount to 2018 and provided you are willing to risk his injury history then he is a proven base stat producer with attacking upside. While he will miss the nascent partnership he was developing on the edge with Shaun Johnson, Harris was not dependent on SJ’s magic to score in 2018. In the three full games Harris played which SJ missed, he still produced ‘keeper’ scores of 62, 56 and 70. Sticking with the backrow Isaiah Papalii (2RF - $462,400) delivered on this promise when handed big minutes on the edge from round 14-18 and 20-23 in 2018 and I’d expect him to play that role full-time in 2019. The 41st most expensive 2RF to start 2019 I firmly expect him to finish 20 places higher in the rankings at the end of the season.
3. TIGERS: Sea Eagles (12), Warriors (6), Bulldogs (14), Panthers (A) (5), Broncos (A) (10), Eels (A) (13), Titans (16), Roosters (2). TOTAL: 78
Analysis: With three consecutive home games to open the season and then three away the Tigers have an unusual start to 2019. Two five-day breaks (Rd 4 and 7) with one six-day break (Rd 5) in between is a tough stretch for the Wests Tigers. Add to that the fact that the Rd 7 ‘home’ match against the Titans is being played at Scully Park in Tamworth and I think this is a harder draw than it looks on paper.
Player to watch: This team is not laden with SuperCoach talent but they did have one standout in 2018 in Esan Marsters (CTW $568,500). Averaging over 30PPG in base, almost 10 PPG with his (not superbly accurate) goalkicking and another 11PPG in offloads and tackle busts combined, Marsters scored the second most points at position at the fourth best average. However, CTW is a notoriously hard position to consistently achieve keeper scores and for that reason I for one will not be investing in a premium priced player at this position to start the season. More on that in a later article I think as it’s a statistical wrinkle worth teasing out.
4. DRAGONS: Cowboys (A) (8), Rabbitohs (3), Broncos (A) (10), Knights (A) (15), Bulldogs (14), Sea Eagles (12), Roosters (A) (2), Eels (A) (13). TOTAL: 77
Analysis: As per the Tigers above, St George have two five-day breaks (Rounds Two and Seven) and one six-day break (Rd 6). The short breaks will bite particularly hard with the opponents on those weeks being the Rabbitohs and Roosters. The Dragons head to Queensland twice early in the season and could well face hot sticky conditions in their matches against the Cowboys (Rd 1) and Broncos (Rd 3) which won’t help their big boppers play big minutes.
Players to watch: *Warning shameless cross promotion* In the 2019 Cheapie Bible I had the following to say about Zac Lomax (CTW $196,900) Injuries cruelled much of 2018 for Lomax but the big outside back still managed eight games for the Dragons in NSW Cup scoring seven tries, setting up three more and busting 18 tackles. Still well in the cheapie bargain bin thanks to playing just two matches in the NRL last year (one of those a five minute zero point cameo off the bench in round 10 and the other a full 80 minutes in round 25 where he scored 43 points with four goals and a last touch), Lomax looks to have the inside running for a starting gig in the Dragons depleted backline to start 2019 and will be a very popular cheapie.
5. RABBITOHS: Roosters (A) (2), Dragons (A) (9), Titans (16), Sea Eagles (A) (12), Warriors (6), Bulldogs (A) (14), Panthers (A) (5), Broncos (10). TOTAL: 74
Analysis: With no five-day turnarounds to start the season - in fact the Rabbitohs are one of only two teams to have no five-day turnarounds all season - and just one game outside Sydney in their first eight (the Rd 5 ‘home’ game being played at Sunshine Coast Stadium against Warriors) the Rabbitohs have a pretty sweet start to 2019.
Player to watch: Cam Murray (2RF $458,900) would have a strong whiff of the dreaded ‘mid-ranger’ about him if it weren’t for the fact that he looks set to move from the bench to a starting role in 2019. With Angus Crichton taking his talents to Bondi Beach in 2019 Murray looks poised to secure a spot in the South Sydney first XIII with Sam Burgess shifting to the edge and Murray starting at lock. In the seven games he started at lock in 2018, Murray averaged 62.7, a hefty 13 PPG more than his season average, and therefore he looks a juicy bargain at his opening price - though beware the heavy hand of SuperCoach killer Wayne Bennett.
6. KNIGHTS: Sharks (4), Panthers (5), Raiders (A) (7), Dragons (9), Sea Eagles (12), Titans (A) (16), Eels (13), Warriors (A) (6). TOTAL: 72
Analysis: It’s a slightly better than middle of the road draw for Newcastle. The Knights should enjoy having no start earlier than 5:30pm across the first five rounds as they were significantly better (7-1-9) in night games in 2018 than they were in day games (2-0-6). Just one trip to Queensland - though it is scheduled for 2pm in April so will likely be steamy. Two six-game breaks for the Knights and these come ahead of Rd 3 away game against Raiders and Rd 5 home game against Sea Eagles.
Players to watch: There’s surely a stand-alone 2000 word analysis piece on Kalyn Ponga (FLB/Five-eighth $614,300) on the cards so I’ll move right along and discuss...nobody really as there don’t look to be any bargains available though I’ll give an honourable mention to Aidan Guerra (2RF $544,300) who averaged almost 5PPG more at lock than he did across the season so a permanent move there - which looks in the offing considering how well the Knights recruited for this year - offers him some upside but he’s already at a premium so not sure it’s worth paying that price for such little upside.
7. PANTHERS: Eels (13), Knights (A) (15), Storm (1), Tigers (11), Titans (A) (16), Sharks (A) (4), Rabbitohs (3), Raiders (A) (7). TOTAL: 70
Analysis: Along with the Rabbitohs the Penrith Panthers have the pleasure of zero five-day turnarounds in 2019 and face just three six-day turnarounds in the opening eight rounds of next year. Only wrinkle in the above is the Rd 3 ‘home’ game against the Storm is to be played at Carrington Park in Bathurst.
Player to watch: Powerhouse winger Josh Mansour (CTW $459,200) ranks as the 26th most expensive CTW in the game and I’m expecting him to finish - injury permitting - considerably further up the ladder in 2019. Injury is the key here as in the past five seasons Mansour has averaged 66 PPG (2014 - 20 games) and 63 PPG (2016 - 23 games) in the years in which he played 20 or more games in a season and 54PPG (2015 - 12 games), 51 PPG (2017 - 13 games) and 49 PPG (2018 - 13 games) in his injury effected seasons. If Mansour can stay fit I’m expecting a big bounce back. Lastly the departure of Tyrone ‘Glue Hands’ Peachey can only be considered a bonus with Mansour sure to see more ball.
8 . SHARKS: Knights (A) (15), Titans (16), Cowboys (A) (8), Eels (A) (13), Roosters (2), Panthers (5), Broncos (A) (10), Storm (1). TOTAL: 70
Analysis: Two trips to Queensland early in the season won’t help but at least both games are later starts (5:30pm for Cowboys and 7:30pm for Broncos). Just the one five-day turnaround - and that falls between two home matches. Despite ranking seventh on my highly scientific scale I think the Sharks draw is tougher than that with Storm and Roosters to provide their usual dose of SC poison and I expect Titans and Knights to be improved this year. If I added some subjectivity to the objectivity then I may slide the Sharks down a couple of slots.
Player to watch: The departure of Valentine Holmes to have a shot at the NFL and recruitment of playmaker Shaun Johnson, means Matt Moylan (FLB/Five-eighth $483,500) will most likely shift from five-eighth to fullback for 2019. Should the move eventuate, then thanks to a lean 5RA of just 43PPG while playing 5/8 to close the season Moylan starts 2019 at a significant discount to his 2018 starting price. Factor the decent price in with the fact that Moylan averaged 62.2PPG playing fullback in 2017 and 63PPG at fullback in 2016 and the third most handsome man in the NRL may just be back on the radar as a starter in 2019.
9. SEA EAGLES: Tigers (11), Roosters (2), Warriors (6), Rabbitohs (3), Knights (15), Dragons (9), Raiders (7), Bulldogs (14). TOTAL: 67
Analysis: The good news is no five-day turnarounds for Manly to open the season and their two toughest match-ups, Roosters and Souths are at home. On top of that the Sea Eagles leave NSW just once in their opening eight games/ That match against the Warriors is at Christchurch not Mt Smart and for whatever reason the Warriors struggle in New Zealand when not playing in Auckland (32 games losing 21, eight wins and three draws).
Player to watch: Tom Trbojevic (FLB $691,200) is the second most expensive player in the game to start 2019 and plenty of coaches look happy to wear the price tag with Tommy Turbo boasting at 26% ownership rate at the time I write this. I can see the appeal with Trbojevic possessing a 72.25 PPG career average against his first eight opponents though it’s clearly a stacked position with premium priced options like James Tedesco and Kalyn Ponga in contention as is the returning Ben Barba...but more on him below.
10. COWBOYS: Dragons (9), Broncos (10), Sharks (4), Raiders (7), Storm (1), Warriors (6), Bulldogs (14), Titans (16). TOTAL: 67
Analysis: Having to leave the Sunshine State just twice in the opening eight rounds is a bonus, though the expected hot and humid conditions could prove testing for their big pack. A tough little stretch over Rounds 5-7 with the Storm in Rd 5 then Warriors away in Rd 6 on Saturday 20 April followed up by the Bulldogs away just six days after that.
Player to watch: Ben Hampton (CTW/FLB $360,300) awkwardly priced, Hampton is still very much a POD option should he win the race to replace Ben Barba at fullback for the Cowboys. Hampton played seven games at fullback for the Cowboys in 2018, averaging 50.6PPG, cracking 70 points three times and recording a top score of 100. Hampton bounced between CTW and utility when not playing fullback for the Cowboys and as a result is priced significantly below his fullback output. Keep an eye on training news up north!
* Editor’s note: We originally had Ben Barba as the player to watch for North Queensland to start 2019 in an earlier edition but the Cowboys tore up his contract
11. EELS: Panthers (5), Bulldogs (14), Roosters (2), Sharks (4), Raiders (7), Tigers (11), Knights (15), Dragons (9). TOTAL: 67
Analysis: With just the one five day break between rounds and no trips out of NSW (yes I know technically Canberra is outside NSW but you get my drift), the Eels won’t be racking up too many travel miles early in the season. A tough stretch from Round 3-5 with Roosters, Sharks and Raiders (A) which might harm the hopes of any cheapie outside backs making money early doors.
Player to watch: Nathan Brown (2RF $582,000)if you’re looking to save $70,000-$80,000 on premium 2RF like Jake Trbojevic or Jason Taumalolo then Nathan Brown is a legitimate option. Brown is a base stat beast and the Parramatta workhorse averaged 62PPG in base stats alone across his final five games of 2018. But before you get too excited, keep in mind that over the same period Brown added just 5PPG in attacking stats. For some reason the offload disappeared from the lock’s arsenal over the back of 2018 and his scores suffered as a result. If Brown can rediscover his offload then he will climb from the fringe of keeper country to and you will have saved $50K. Risk it for the biscuit etc.
12. BULLDOGS: Warriors (6), Eels (13), Tigers (11), Storm (1), Dragons (9), Rabbitohs (3), Cowboys (8), Sea Eagles (12). TOTAL: 63
Analysis: Starting with the Warriors in Auckland will be tough but the real hardship comes later in the span between rounds 4-6 with Storm (A), Dragons at Jubilee and then a short five-day break to the Rabbitohs.
Player to watch: With uncertainty over Will Hopoate retaining the FLB position there’s just the one Bulldog player on my radar at this stage and that’s ‘God Mk II’ Rhyse Martin (2RF $634,300). My learned colleague Trent Copeland is a fan and it’s easy to see why with Martin regularly posting 45-60 PPG in base and then adding a deadly accurate goalkicking (he slotted them over at a spectacular 94% accuracy rate last year) to his scoring mix. Does carry some risk though with competition at his position which may see reduced minutes so watch trials closely.
13. ROOSTERS: Rabbitohs (3), Sea Eagles (12), Eels (13), Broncos (10), Sharks (4), Storm (1), Dragons (9), Tigers (11). TOTAL: 63
Analysis: It’s always a massive advantage when you don’t have to play the reigning premiers once in your season and of course the champion Sydney Roosters will enjoy that in 2019 (that’s it for the crowing I promise). With no five day breaks, and in fact two nine day breaks and an a eight day break the Roosters should be well rested early in the season. No trips to sunny Queensland and just the one trip out of state - albeit a tough GF rematch against the Storm down at AAMI Park - the Roosters may have the 13th toughest draw based on 2018 SC defensive numbers but I think it should pan out better than the raw numbers suggest.
Player to watch: Victor ‘The Inflictor’ Radley (HOK/2RF $407,500) may be a dreaded ‘mid-ranger’ but in his case I’m happy to classify that as a bargain rather than a liability. Having started 2018 as an impact player off the bench, then filling an edge role over Origin, Radley played lock for the Roosters from rounds 16-24. In the seven games he started at lock Radley averaged 54 PPG. After a spectacular finals series I fully expect Radley to start at lock to start 2019 and on that basis he’s priced at close to a $100K discount.
14. TITANS: Raiders (7), Sharks (4), Rabbitohs (3), Warriors (6), Panthers (5), Knights (15), Tigers (11), Cowboys (8). TOTAL: 59
Analysis: With one five-day turnaround, three six-day turnarounds. three trips interstate and one trip to New Zealand all within the first eight rounds it is safe to say the Titans get off to a tough start in 2019.
Player to watch: Jai Arrow (2RF $590,000), the early/mid-season 2018 darling, the second half of Arrow’s breakout season saw his output drop off as injuries and fatigue too their toll.
Our 2018 pain is our 2019 gain however, with the workhorse available at a $40-50K discount to where he would be if he had maintained his early season form. With a massive engine ensuring a great base and the ability to pile on offensive stat points too there’s no better player to own at the price.
15. STORM: Broncos (10), Raiders (7), Panthers (5), Bulldogs (14), Cowboys (8), Roosters (2), Warriors (6), Sharks (4). TOTAL: 56
Analysis: By default as a one-state team the Storm are no strangers to travel, so four interstate trips in their first eight games is nothing they can’t handle. That said the fact that their one five-day turnaround comes ahead of a trip to North Queensland in Rd 5 makes that journey extra taxing. The match against the Panthers in Rd 3 will involve extra travel too as it is being played at Carrington Park in Bathurst.
Player to watch: Joe Stimson (2RF $352,900): Intermitently given big minutes through the 2018 season, Stimson appeared to earn coach Bellamy’s trust as the season progressed and then looked to cement his place on the edge with a superb finals series. In the 12 regular season games in which he played 60+ minutes, Stimson averaged 51.75PPG with 46 of those in base stats. Not overly blessed with attacking prowess, Stimson should nonetheless prove a steady money maker and dependable reserve you can upgrade once you’ve built your bank.
16. BRONCOS: Storm (1), Cowboys (8), Dragons (9), Roosters (2), Tigers (11), Raiders (7), Sharks (4), Rabbitohs (3). TOTAL: 45
Analysis: Look, there’s no way to sugar coat this - the Broncos do traditionally get pretty generous draws. But, the start to 2019 may just be the toughest one I’ve seen handed to the boys from Brisbane in a while. Sure they start with four Thursday night games and one Friday night game in the first five weeks. However, their three toughest matches in Storm, Roosters and Rabbitohs are away fixtures and that South Sydney match comes after a five-day turnaround.
Player to watch: Five-eighth Anthony Milford (5/8 $511,900) had his worst ever season last year as he dealt with chronic injury, and yet he still exceeded triple-figures twice and finished with as many points as 2019 darling Kalyn Ponga and more than Gareth Widdop and Cameron Munster. I’m tipping a big bounce back under coach Anthony Seibold and consider Milford a bargain POD at this stage.
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