NRL 2023 teams Round 8: 6,000 SuperCoaches are taking a huge risk on Haze Dunster

Quality cheapies are few and far between right now – to the point where KFC SuperCoaches are taking ridiculous risks to manufacture them.

Under-pressure Sydney Roosters coach Trent Robinson has completely overhauled his side and KFC SuperCoaches are the big winners.

Robinson has lost patience after two straight losses and among the changes are the returns of representative forwards Angus Crichton and Sitili Tupouniua.

But the big news KFC SuperCoach-wise is the axing of Sam Walker and switching of Joey Manu to five-eighth, which is sure to see Manu surge up the most-purchased list.

Over an eight year NRL career, Manu has played five-eighth four times and brained it every time for scores of 87, 191, 82 and 37. That’s an average of 102.

However, a mix of injury, lack of ball in the centres and the poor form of the Roosters mean Manu has averaged just 46 this year and he has therefore dipped $177,700. In other words, we have a potential 102 average player available for just $623,900.

He also has a juicy draw with only one tough game (Panthers) in the next five matches and the Dragons TWICE (Dragons, Warriors, Cowboys, Panthers and Dragons again).

With a BE of 110, you can afford to wait a week and gauge whether Walker’s demotion is just a short term jolt for the star youngster. But delaying the Manu trade would mean missing out on the Dragons match-up this week.

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Joey Manu is a SuperCoach gun at five-eighth. Picture: NRL Photos

AVOID

* Haze Dunster CTW $234,800 - He’s retained his wing spot at the Eels but I’m still calling TRAP. Dunster is the fourth most purchased player this week as KFC SuperCoaches scrounge for cheapies (that’s 6,000 SuperCoaches), despite the likelihood he loses his spot to Bailey Simonsson, who has been named in reserves. Dunster scored seven points in 80 minutes in round 6 and 27 points last week, so the risk isn’t worth the reward.

WINNERS

* Reuben Garrick CTW/FLB $701,900 - Back from concussion for the Sea Eagles and has immediately surged to the top of this week’s most purchased list as SuperCoaches replace the injured Jacob Kiraz (knee, round 11) and peaked cheapie Alofiana Khan-Pereria. It’s hard to argue with the masses here. Garrick had the best average of any CTW before the concussion and delivers the perfect mix of attacking upside (he’s the winger outside Tommy Turbo) and base stats (especially from goalkicking). In fact, take out the injury-affected game and Garrick has averaged 49.5 in base/power/kicking combined, meaning his floor is as good as most gun forwards.

* Jahream Bula (FLB $200,800) and Declan Casey (FLB $200,800) - The struggling Wests Tigers have handed a debut to star young gun Bula. A quick flick through Youtube shows this kid is an absolute freak and his job security actually looks decent for a rookie given Adam Doueihi (ACL) is done for the season, Daine Laurie is out of favour and Charlie Staines is more noted as a winger. Alas, he’s only available at fullback so he’ll be almost impossible to fit in given the need/want to run two guns in the position. Casey also piques the interest after scoring a wing spot at the Bulldogs. However, job security is shaky given the long list of injured players to return and he’s also only available at fullback.

Jahream Bula will debut for the Tigers. Picture: Getty

* Zac Hosking 2RF $584,000 - The big knock on Hosking was always whether he’d maintain his spot and game time when the cavalry returned. Well, even with Liam Martin and Luke Garner fit last week Hosking retained an 80 minute starting edge role for 62 points basically all in base. Meanwhile, Martin aggravated a ‘mystery’ hamstring injury and his immediate future is clouded, while Hosking has well-and-truly jumped Garner in the pecking order with Garner playing NSW Cup. In short, the job security questions have emphatically been answered in Hosking’s favour and we’re looking at 80 minutes every week, all while running of Nathan Cleary’s shoulder. The BE of 57 indicates he has peaked in price, but he’s more than a cash cow. Hold at least until the round 13 bye.

* Josh Schuster 5/8-2RF $241,200 - Returns from a quad injury after a series of false starts. Given job security doubts over popular bargains Jarrod Croker and Haze Dunster (analysis below), Schuster is the cheapie of the week for those who don’t already own him.

* Kalyn Ponga (FLB-5/8 $530,600) and Angus Crichton (2RF $697,100) - Two former KFC SuperCoach guns return to the NRL after long lay-offs. Players to monitor – ideally they are eased back and drop to juicy prices.

Reuben Garrick is the perfect mix of attacking stats and base. Picture: Getty

LIKELY WINNERS

* J’Maine Hopgood (2RF $537,500) and Ryan Matterson (2RF $709,800) ... but not Bryce Cartwright (2RF $445,800) - The Parramatta back row has been a position of intense interest for KFC SuperCoaches and the intrigue is set to continue this week. Sitting on just two wins from six games coming into Sunday’s clash, coach Brad Arthur pulled a game day switch by moving J’Maine Hopgood to starting lock, Ryan Matterson to the edge and Bryce Cartwright to the bench. The Eels promptly produced their best performance of the season – a 30-4 drubbing of the Bulldogs. Yet Arthur has inexplicably reversed the move in this week’s team, although surely the late change is on the cards again given how well the Eels played last week.

So what’s the KFC SuperCoach impact? Firstly, Hopgood is a huge winner. After being one of the most sold players over the last few weeks due to reduced minutes on the bench, the 2023 revelation was back to 61 points in 70 minutes as a starter, which is basically keeper areas in the position. Those who held were no doubt a bit perkier than normal in the Monday water cooler chat.

J'Maine Hopgood is back in the starting side. Picture: Getty

Matterson’s switch to the edge has also gone down well in fantasy land with Matto the third most purchased player this week. There’s plenty to like. He has the second highest average of any 2RF behind Zac Hosking. The pure base of 61 is basically unmatched in SuperCoach, while the switch to the edge last week unlocked his attack with a try assist, try contribution, two linebreak assists, two offloads and three tackle busts. All while maintaining a solid – albeit reduced – base of 26 tackles and 18 runs.

He’s also a great of SuperCoach, displaying incredible consistency over a long time by maintaining a season average between 65 and 76 for the last half decade. But there’s one massive word of warning. His switch to the edge saw game time reduce to 61 minutes. It’s not a deal breaker but with a BE of 49 and his price set to stay fairly steady, it’s worth taking another look at the rotation this week.

Cartwright is the big loser. After playing 80 minutes (or more including two golden point games) over the opening six rounds, Cartwright switched to the bench for 34 points in 50 minutes. But it’s no biggie – he’s made over $200,000 already and can be cashed in at a massive profit.

Ryan Matterson’s offload is a handy asset. Picture: Getty

LOSERS

* Jacob Kiraz CTW $650,500 - Set to miss three weeks with a knee injury so it’s time to bid farewell after a stellar run of games averaging 69.4.

* Keaon Koloamatangi 2RF $670,200 - The South Sydney forward and NSW Origin hopeful is out for 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury. It’s a huge blow for owners given he had produced the second best average of any 2RF, yet was flying under the radar at 6.8 per cent ownership.

Keaon Koloamatangi is expected to miss at least 6 weeks after suffering a syndesmosis injury in Round 7 (via @BulldogRitchie). Surgical repair in these cases usually results in 6-8 weeks recovery in NRL players, so likely to be a moderate to high grade sprain for Keaon pic.twitter.com/CEcItq1gNy

— NRL PHYSIO (@nrlphysio) April 16, 2023

BUY

* Jarrod Croker CTW $279,900 - The pick of the cheapies this week even though he’s on the bye. The Raiders have looked a different team since the prodigal son’s return, notching two wins on the trot. Croker has played a significant role in both victories with his defence, goalkicking and general leadership – and Canberra’s significant improvement with Croker in the side has seemingly locked in his place. Croker is hardly setting the SuperCoach world on fire with attacking stats, but he’s still averaged 40 in pure base (goalkicking included) and you’d take that any day from a $279,900 player. That said, there is merit in waiting to see how Croker fits into the team with Xavier Savage at fullback. But that would mean waiting a week and many SuperCoaches don’t have that luxury.

* Nicho Hynes HFB $982,700 - Last week’s most purchased player got the job done with 89 despite a seemingly tough match-up against the Roosters. He now sits with a 123.7 average and is a captaincy option every week for the next five rounds against the Bulldogs, Cowboys, Dolphins, Sea Eagles and Knights. Put simply, if you don’t own Nicho, you’re cooked. So if you somehow missed out last week, do everything you can to free up the extra $80,000 this round.

* Dylan Brown 5/8 $642,900 - DylBags did ‘nothing’ last week and scored 60 points. Tremendous bye coverage and a guy who feels right on the brink of going large. Plenty paid $730K for Brown two weeks ago and he was worth it then. You can pay $642K now.

Dylan Brown is reliable in an unreliable position. Picture: Getty

* James Tedesco FLB $604,300 - Definitely a risky buy due to the nose-dive in form by both Teddy and the Roosters. But hear me out. Teddy’s tough start (average 46) means he is available this week for a $232,000 discount on his starting price. Let’s face it, regardless of form, $604,300 is an insane price for a bloke who has averaged 79, 87, 95 and 84 in the previous four seasons.

* Will Penisini CTW $613,100 – In the midst of his best ever season in both NRL and SuperCoach. After five rounds, Penisini had an average of 57.4, and with tries in round six and seven that average is now 65.6. Punching out an excellent base of 37, Penisini’s price is getting into the slightly awkward area but still represents reasonable value.

* See Garrick and Matterson above

Will Penisini has gone to another level this year. Picture: Getty

HOLD

* Joseph Tapine 2RF/FRF $640,300 - Fifth most sold player this week, presumably due to the bye. However, SuperCoaches need to take a long-term view here. Tapine and Matterson are THE most important forwards for the round 13 bye, so there’s no point in selling this week and buying back in a few weeks. At first glance, Tapine’s form has been a tad lacklustre, averaging four points less than last season (66 compared to 62) and dropping almost $60,000. But Tapine’s consistency this season is barely-believable (high score 67 and low score 57) and he is averaging a massive 55 points in base stats. All he needs are a few attacking stats, which we know he’s capable of, and the dual position flexibility is delightful.

* Jacob Preston 2RF $545,100 - On the fence here. Preston to Matterson is a very popular trade and no doubt a decent upgrade (60 average to 76). But equally Preston’s 60 points in your 17 each week are very handy. At this stage I’m thinking Preston’s points are more important than his cash so I’ll hold for a few more weeks before upgrading to a round 13 keeper like Matto or Tapine.

SELL

* Alofiana Khan-Pereria CTW $493,500 - Goodbye and thanks for the memories. AKP has been immense this season in making almost $300,000, but he has peaked (BE 73) so it’s time to realise that profit.

* Sunia Turuva CTW/FLB $412,600 – Like AKP above, Turuva has peaked (BE 56) after a $137,600 rise. So long.

* See Cartwright, Kiraz and Koloamatangi above

Alofiana Khan-Pereira has been a tryscoring revelation. Picture: Getty

ROUND 8 NRL TEAMS

RABBITOHS V PANTHERS

Thursday, 7:50pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney

Rabbitohs

1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnson 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Izaac Tu’itupou Thompson 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Jai Arrow 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Michael Chee Kam 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray

Bench: 14. Jed Cartwright 15. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 16. Hame Sele 17. Davvy Moale

Reserves: 18. Taane Milne 19 Blake Taaffe 20. Joseph Karapani 21. Ben Lovett 22. Tallis Duncan

Panthers

1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Matt Eisenhuth 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Zac Hosking 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Soni Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon

Reserves: 18. Luke Garner 19. Eddie Blacker 20. Liam Henry 21. Jack Cogger 22. Tyrone Peachey

EELS v BRONCOS

Friday, 8pm, TIO Stadium, Darwin

Eels

1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Ryan Matterson

Bench: 14. J’maine Hopgood 15. Brendan Hands 16. Wiremu Greig 17. Matt Doorey

Reserves: 18. Jakob Arthur 19. Jack Murchie 20. Makahesi Makatoa 21. Bailey Simonsson 22. Daejarn Asi

Broncos

1. Reece Walsh 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan

Bench: 14. Cory Paix 15. Corey Jensen 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Martin Taupau

Reserves: 18. Jesse Arthurs 19. Keenan Palasia 20. Jock Madden 21. Brendan Piakura 22. Deine Mariner

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BULLDOGS v SHARKS

Saturday, 5:30pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney

Bulldogs

1. Hayze Perham 2. Declan Casey 3. Jake Averillo 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Braidon Burns 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Corey Waddell 12. Jacob Preston 13. Raymond Faitala-Mariner.

Bench: 14. Josh Reynolds 15. Jayden Okunbor 16. Andrew Davey 17. Ryan Sutton

Reserves: 19. Karl Oloapu 20. Jackson Topine 21. Samuel Hughes 22. Jeral Skelton 23. Reece Hoffman

Sharks

1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Oregon Kaufusi 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Braden Hamlin-Uele 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes

Bench: 14. Wade Graham 15. Jack Williams 16. Royce Hunt 17. Thomas Hazelton

Reserves: 18. Braydon Trindall 19. Connor Tracey 20. Tuku Hau Tapuha 21. Mawene Hiroti 22. Jayden Berrell

COWBOYS v KNIGHTS

Saturday, 7:35pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville

Cowboys

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter

Bench: 14. Tom Chester 15. Jake Granville 16. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 17. Mitchell Dunn

Reserves: 18. Riley Price 19. Ben Hampton 20. Brendan Elliot 21. Taniela Sadrugu 22. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

Knights

1. Lachlan Miller 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Kalyn Ponga 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Kurt Mann

Bench: 14. Tyson Gamble 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Mathew Croker 17. Jack Hetherington

Reserves: 18. Simi Sasagi 19. Hymel Hunt 20. Jack Johns 21.Dylan Lucas 22. Adam Clune

DOLPHINS v TITANS

Sunday, 2pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Dolphins

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Euan Aitken 4. Brenko Lee 5. Robert Jennings 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Herman Ese’ese 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Tom Gilbert

Bench: 14. Jarrod Wallace 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ray Stone 17. Kurt Donoghoe

Reserves: 18. JJ Collins 19 Poasa Faamausili 20. Edrick Lee 21 Mason Teague 22. Valynce Te Whare

Titans

1. Jayden Campbell 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Kieran Foran 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Chris Randall 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Joe Stimson 13. Isaac Liu

Bench: 14. Kruise Leeming 15. Erin Clark 16. Thomas Mikaele 17. Klese Haas

Interchange: 18. Jo Vuna 19. Keano Kiki 20. Thomas Weaver 21 AJ Brimson 22. Sam McIntyre

TIGERS v SEA EAGLES

Sunday, 4:05pm, Campbelltown Stadium, Sydney

Tigers

1. Jahream Bula 2. Charlie Staines 3. Starford To’a 4. Asu Kepaoa 5. Junior Tupou 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. John Bateman 13. Fonua Pole

Bench: 14. Daine Laurie 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Alex Twal 17. Tommy Talau

Reserves: 18. Alex Seyfarth 19. Shawn Blore 20. Justin Matamua 21. David Nofoaluma 22. Jake Simpkin

Sea Eagles

1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Josh Schuster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Jake Trbojevic 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ethan Bullemor 13. Josh Aloiai

Bench: 14. Samuela Fainu 15. Sean Keppie 16. Aaron Woods 17. Toafofoa Sipley

Reserves: 18. Cooper Johns 19. Kaeo Weekes 20. Ben Condon 21. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 22. Christian Tuipulotu

ROOSTERS v DRAGONS

Tuesday, 4:05pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Roosters

1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Paul Momirovski 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Joseph Manu 7. Luke Keary 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Egan Butcher 12. Angus Crichton 13. Victor Radley

Bench: 14. Drew Hutchison 15. Terrell May 16. Sitili Tupouniua 17. Matthew Lodge

Reserves: 18. Corey Allan 19. Nathan Brown 20. Naufahu Whyte 21. Jake Turpin 22. Sam Walker

Dragons

1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Tautau Moga 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Zane Musgrove 9. Moses Mbye 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Ben Murdoch-Masila 12. Jack Bird 13. Jack de Belin

Bench: 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Michael Molo 16. Toby Couchman 17. Josh Kerr

Reserves: 18. Jaiyden Hunt 19. Max Feagai 20. Jayden Sullivan 21. Billy Burns 22. Viliami Fifita

STORM v WARRIORS

Tuesday, 7pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm

1. Nick Meaney 2. William Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Josh King

Bench: 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Tariq Sims

Reserves: 18. Grant Anderson 19. Aaron Pene 20. Tyran Wishart 21. Jonah Pezet 22. Jack Howarth

Warriors

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Marcelo Montoya 4. Adam Pompey 5. Edward Kosi 6. Dylan Walker 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Freddy Lussick 10. Jazz Tevaga 11. Jackson Ford 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tohu Harris

Bench: 14. Bayley Sironen 15. Josh Curran 16. Bunty Afoa 17. Tom Ale. Reserves: 18. Viliami Vailea 20. Taine Tuaupiki 21. Ronald Volkman 22. Demitric Sifakula 23. Zyon Maiu’u