NRL SuperCoach: Wilfred Zee’s fearless predictions for season 2018
WILFRED Zee looks forward to 2018 and finds all-time guns on the slide, their successors, two new highest-averaging players and a No. 1 worry. READ ALL 10 BIG CALLS RIGHT HERE.
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I LEARNED a lot last year. The biggest lesson of all … it’s HARD to write about and predict how things will play out in SuperCoach! Of course, you all knew that already, right?
If you recall, I did make 10 fearless predictions for the 2017 NRL SuperCoach season and I managed to only get 35 per cent of them correct. But I won’t let that stop me from making another 10 fearless (or foolish, as some punters have provided as feedback) predictions for the 2018 NRL SuperCoach season.
1. Anthony Milford will shed his reputation as a ‘rollercoaster’
Yep, had to start with another Milford prediction. I got my last one wrong, if only just, as injury ruined the chances of my prediction coming true. He finished a close third (70.1) in averages from halfbacks and five-eighths who played at least five games, behind Widdop (73.0) and Johnson (72.2) who both had outstanding seasons from a SuperCoach perspective. As always, though, I like to look at their average from non-injury or non-HIA affected games. After adjusting for those games, Milford averaged 71.8 points from 17 games — something that is impressive considering he still has a paltry six-point game from a full 80-minute performance against the Storm in that average. SJ’s adjusted average is 72.7 from 17 games, and Widdop’s is 74.7 — truly impressive numbers given that in 2016 only Bryce Cartwright and Johnathon Thurston managed to average 70+ in the halves positions.
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As for the myth that is the Milford rollercoaster, he scored below 60 points only six times all year (including that score of six, and another score of 49 when he injured his shoulder), meaning he scored 60+ an impressive 70 per cent of the time. That’s as consistent as you could ask for from a halfback or five-eighth, with the likes of Widdop and SJ only managing 60+ scores 52.4 per cent and 55.5 per cent of the time respectively. I’m predicting more of the same from Milford this year as he truly becomes the full-time dominant playmaker at the Broncos, with Ben Hunt leaving for the Dragons.
2. Johnathan Thurston will return to his rightful place as an elite option in the halves
last season is one JT would probably like to forget, for the most part, given his injury issues all year long, robbing him of the opportunity to finish Origin with a series-winning decider in Queensland. SuperCoach-wise he only managed the seven games, averaging 67.1 which is very good but not quite up to JT’s best standards. With the expectation being that JT won’t be playing Origin any more, he looms as a year-long “set-and-forget” at an affordable, but not cheap, price.
The unknown perhaps might be how he plays with the new-and-improved playmaker that is Michael Morgan, whose game has improved out of sight since being forced to take on dominant playmaker responsibilities following JT’s season-ending injury last year. At the very least, with Morgan seemingly locked in for Origin duties for the indefinite future, JT will take on a more dominant role if/when Morgan is either out of the team, or backing up after an intense Origin game. I’m backing JT to average around the 70+ mark for the season.
3. Tom Trbojevic will be the highest-averaging player in SuperCoach 2018
A few weeks back I made a bold call in describing Tommy Turbo’s 2017 SuperCoach season as “almost 2014 Hayne-esque”; that is, Hayne’s 2014 season which saw him average a ridiculous 81 points per game on his way to a joint Dally M award. His 2017 season average finished on an impressive 76.3 points per game, but like always when you remove his scores from injury or HIA-affected games (taking out three scores including a 90 from only 64 minutes of game time, but also his score of 17 when he clearly came back too early from injury and wasn’t 100 per cent fit), his average sits at a ridiculous 80.5 from 19 games. I’m now upgrading my previous description to officially “2014 Hayne-esque”, and it’s the reason he will start as the most expensive player in SuperCoach for the 2018 season.
4. James Tedesco will be the second-highest averaging player in SuperCoach 2018
When you average 67.6 across 21 games, yet your SuperCoach season is considered a disappointment, well, you know things can only get better. Off the back of 74 and 70 average seasons, Teddy’s 2017 season is not so much “unlucky” (despite what our good friend Tom Sangster may claim) but the byproduct of playing in one of the worst teams in the competition. After all, the Bunker isn’t making Teddy’s teammates be off-side on kick chases, or obstructing the opposition defence, and the refs aren’t making Teddy’s teammates drop his perfect try assist/line break-assist quality balls over the line. The good news is that 2018 is looking up, as Teddy will pull on a new jersey next year and be surrounded by a far stronger squad and play off the back of two halves that have won premierships. I’ll bet we’ll also see Teddy score close to, if not more than, the 17 or 14 tries he scored in the past two years, instead of only five tries like he did in 2017.
The reason why I have him only averaging the second-highest next year, behind one Mr Tom Trbojevic, is due to the quality of the Roosters squad. There is so much talent all over the park that, inevitably, those players are going to steal SuperCoach points off each other. In comparison, Tommy Turbo is just so integral to the Sea Eagles’ attack that he is constantly involved in all facets of their offence. Teddy may end up like that at the Roosters too, but I can’t see him being used in the same way as it stands.
5. Fullback is going to make or break the overall race for 2018
And we thought we were spoiled for choice in 2017. The biggest issue this year is going to be the increasing number of FLB only (i.e. not dual position) fullbacks in the game. It means players like Tom Trbojevic who lost dual status will have to be added to the logjam of great options that are only available at fullback.
Let’s see who else we’ll be struggling to fit in: Tedesco, Slater, Tuivasa-Sheck can be added to Turbo as the standout names, but then there’s the likes of Dylan Edwards, Kalyn Ponga, Matt Dufty and possibly Greg Inglis.
On the surface, locking in a Teddy/Turbo combo at the start seems like a viable strategy, but then the likes of potential PODs like Cody Walker, Matt Moylan, Cam Munster, Alex Johnston, Tui Lolohea, Val Holmes or even a revitalised Jarryd Hayne — there are going to be some big decisions in this troubled spot.
6. Father Time to stop the Gal-bot
I’ll be the first to admit that Gal surprised me in 2017. Not from his on-field output, as I expected him to average over 75 (he averaged 76.0) but the number of games he played. Gal played the full 24 club games available. For context, the last time Gal played 20 or more games in a season was 2011 and 2010 (20 and 23 games respectively). It seems the representative duties really were taking a toll on his body (even though he often got injured in the first eight rounds of the year — well before Origin came around). And he was BUSY in those games too, scoring below 60 points only THREE times out of 24 games. That’s a ridiculous 87.5 per cent rate of 60+ scores, showing just how safe of a captain option he is. Of course, when you’ve got the Captain’s Curse like I had last year, you’ll manage to captain Gal for two of his three sub-60 scores!
In any case, Gal is currently 36 years of age, and he will be turning 37 before the end of next season. There’s no doubt that his minutes were well managed by Flanno in 2017 to get maximum productivity out of him (averaged 64 minutes across the year), and the trend is usually downwards. It’s unlikely that he will drop his minutes to below 60 per game, as he is such a workhorse and not the kind of short-minute, impact forward to benefit from playing less, but like we saw with Corey Parker, the decline can come with little warning and very quickly (he averaged 74.4 in the first nine rounds of 2016, before declining rapidly to only average 59.4 for the remaining 13 games he played that year).
So, my fearless prediction is that Gal’s average will drop to around 70, and he will play less than 20 games in 2018.
7. The gap between Cam Smith and the other hookers shortens
He did it again. Averaging 75.2 points per game across his 20 games in 2017 — a huge 14.5 points more than the next-best hooking option (Andrew McCullough with 60.7). CS9 just stands head and shoulders above all other hookers; both in terms of his on-field influence and also in terms of his statistical output. BUT! For the first time since 2010, Smith played just 20 games this season, whereas he has consistently played 21 to 23 games in each season (with 23 being his maximum number of club games due to his participation in Origin) since 2011 until last year. We saw the first signs of Smith getting injured and failing to complete a game, and actually being rested.
However, while Smith reigns undisputed as the premium hooker option for SuperCoach, there were legitimate reasons to consider starting someone else from Round 1 in 2017. In fact, if you had started with McCullough over Smith, you would have paid approximately $201,000 less and had 21 more points overall at the end of Round 7 AND you could have upgraded McCullough to Smith for a measly $10,000 due to McCullough’s $120,000 price increase and Smith’s $73,000 price decrease!
Given the intention for Smith is to play on for another two seasons (which would see him finish his career with over 400 NRL games under his belt — simply incredible), he will surely have to consider giving up his 80-minute workload at some point. That may not be in 2018, but I suspect he will get a bit more rest here and there when the game is won, so as to reduce the toll on his body.
There may still be a few interesting POD options you could consider for the start of 2018 … but you would be a brave SuperCoach to go without Smith in your team at some point of the season.
8. The decline of the old (forward) guard
It’s safe to say that 2017 saw the rise of some new premium forward guns and the decline of some others. More specifically, we saw the old guard of Paul Gallen and Simon Mannering holding strong (first and third-highest averages in the combined FRF and 2RF positions) but also the emergence of Jason Taumalolo, Jake Trbojevic, Angus Crichton, Paul Vaughan, Jack De Belin, Josh Papalii, Matt Gillett, Marty Taupau and Nathan Brown as genuine premium forward options (all averaged 65 or above). The decline of Sam Burgess and Andrew Fifita were especially concerning this year and you can throw in Trent Merrin and Bryce Cartwright who both had injury and off-field issues impacting their form.
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As I’ve already predicted above, Gal will regress in his final year of NRL, and I expect Manners to finally show his age. There were intentions of resting him at the start of this year already, but his coach soon realised that they needed him for 80 minutes in the middle too much. Unfortunately I don’t think his body can handle it for another full season, which is why I expect him to be managed somewhat. So I expect both of these guys to finish outside the top five premium forwards in terms of averages in 2018.
Question marks may continue to loom over Sam Burgess for this year as the emergence of Cam Murray at the back end of the year may see Surgess shifting out wide to the left edge, where he will still be great due to the increased likelihood of attacking stats, but definitely no longer the must-have that he was when playing big minutes at lock.
9. The rise of the new (forward) guard
Who will replace them in the top five? Well, Nathan Brown and Angus Crichton already boast averages of approximately 65 and 69 respectively, but it’s important to note that both of these guys started their early games off the bench and soon won over their respective coaches for starting roles.
For Nathan, take out his three bench games at the start and his injury-affected score of 19 and he sits on an average of 71.1 from his other 19 games, playing an average of 72.2 minutes per game. The impressive part is there are limited attacking stats in those scores, with just the one try, one try assist, one last touch assist, one line break and four line break assists all year.
For Angus, take out his four games off the bench and the one random game he was injured/hooked early and he sits on a ridiculous average of 77.6 from his other 17 games (remember, he had a fractured foot). I’d say both these guys will continue their great scoring ways in 2018, averaging over 70 andmaybe even 75 points per game.
10. Smokey of 2018
This is a wild guess at best, given how early it is and how little we know about the plans for 2018. But hey, I guess that’s why they call them fearless predictions, right? The great man, Tevita Pangai Jr, one of my favourite players, is currently just a bench forward for the Broncos. Averaging only 25.9 minutes per game from his 17 games this year, TPJ churned out an average of 38.1 points at an incredible PPM of 1.5 — better than Paul Vaughan’s PPM of 1.4! Even more incredible is that TPJ didn’t score a try at all, and had just the two try assists and one last touch assist for the year. What that means is that he gets through plenty of work in his limited time on the field, but his actual game drips SuperCoach points. Tackle busts, high-quality offloads, line breaks and line break assists — he can do it all.
Now, imagine if his minutes jump up just another 10 minutes per game. That sees his average potentially jump to almost 54 points per game, if he can maintain his PPM. He’s certainly got the motor to be able to play many more minutes than just 25.9 per game. The mouth waters with his potential to be a SuperCoach gun in the mould of another Bryce Cartwright or vintage Parker or Gallen (with offloads galore).
Bring on 2018.
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