NRL SuperCoach Cheapie Bible Round 18: Focus shifts to ‘nuffs’ and ‘best 17’
THE dreaded byes are over and SuperCoaches now shift the focus on to ‘nuffs’ and building the ‘Best 17’ for the run home, writes resident expert Trent Copeland.
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THE dreaded byes are over and SuperCoaches now shift the focus on to “nuffs” and building the ‘best 17’ for the run home — presented by hipages.
There are still some traditional cheapies that teams with over seven or eight trades will still find useful, but for the rest of us reckless traders, the “nuff” is where it’s at.
By way of definition, a “nuff” is a player who you want to NEVER take the field in the NRL for the remainder of 2018.
Season-long injuries, players who have left for the Super League in the UK or just sit well down the pecking order in a particular position are the order of the day. To top it off, we want to look for players who tick three specific boxes:
- Base price ($164k)
- Dual position flexibility
- Play in a team with a majority of late Saturday or Sunday fixtures (VC- loophole purposes)
For reference, the teams who have the best schedule for “nuffs” are the Dragons, Warriors, Roosters and Sharks.
Let’s have a look…
LOWDOWN: SuperCoach Round 18 teams analysis
ROUND 17: NRL Casualty Ward
TRADITIONAL CHEAPIES
Lachlan Lewis 5/8 | HFB (BUL | $164,600) - 60 points
The nephew of the great Wally Lewis has settled in to first grade like a seasoned veteran, playing two matches of which they beat the Knights and should easily have beaten the Raiders last weekend. Lewis has aimed up on defense, making 29 and 20 tackles respectively in his two matches, but added the two try assists last week for a high score of 60 points. If it’s a legit money maker with good job security (Foran out for the season) you’re looking for, Lewis is the pick of the bunch with a -34 BE and projected rise of $59,000 this week.
VERDICT: BUY. Handy dual position flexibility if you’re a SJ owner, and matchups against the Eels, Tigers and Sea Eagles to come in the next five rounds.
Marata Niukore CTW (PAR | $242,500) - 0 points
Niukore is my left-field “POD” cheapie for the week. It’s a middling price for a guy with an average of just 31PPG from six matches so far this season. But, it’s the last match where Niukore started on an edge (in the absence of Manu Ma’u who is unlikely to return this season), playing 74 minutes and scoring 59 points - entirely in base stats - that perks my interest. Named once again to start on the edge for the Eels, could he be the reliable 80-minute base stat beast CTW we need for the run home? With a BE of just 10, it’s now or never.
VERDICT: BUY. Risky play for sure, but a trade of Kurt Mann (named on bench) to Niukore could net $60k and quite a lot of points!
Jarome Luai 5/8 (PTH | $164,600) - 133 points
What a game from Luai!!! A kid no one had really heard of in SuperCoach terms who had 12 points on debut back in round 10, comes out and dominates for 133 points including two tries, a try assist, 24 points in conversions, TWENTY points in tackle busts, 13 tackles, an offload and 14 points in hit-ups. Insane.
Uniquely, Luai fits in to both categories this week as a player who may make a truckload of money but should also turn into a ‘nuff’ next weekend when Maloney and Cleary return from Origin duty. Depending on those two backing up from Origin, Luai may not even play this week, so it’s most definitely a wait and see.
VERDICT: AVOID. This is a unique scenario, where essentially you trade him in to not play and likely not have the trades to take the money he will make into another player so you’d be better served getting a proper dual position nuff. Only buy if you have 8+ trades.
Reimis Smith CTW (BUL | $226,500) - 25 points
Unfortunately for those that jumped on during last week’s bye round (I was one!), Smith delivered a well-below-par 25 points compared to his 84-point bomb in round 16. Despite that, Smith jumped $49,200 in price and maintains an extremely juicy -25 BE going into round 18 against the all conquering Rabbitohs on the back of EIGHT wins in a row. And hey, Smith’s gone 25, 84 and 25 points so far, so you know what’s coming next …
VERDICT: HOLD. Certainly don’t be jumping on now, as there is probably only one more price rise to come before Smith needs to be sold.
Manase Fainu HOK (MNL | $164,600) - 0 points
If for some reason you’ve missed the fact that Cameron Smith and Damian Cook are two of the must-have SuperCoach players this season and you’re looking for a cheapie there, Fainu is (and will be likely for the rest of the year) the only legit option to score points as cover for an injury to whoever your starter is. With a score of 35 points in 64 minutes in his debut, the upside just simply isn’t there.
VERDICT: AVOID.
Luciano Leilua 2RF (STG | $190,500) - 69 points
Big Lucy (literally really big) was an absolute gift from the SuperCoach gods last week with 69 points in the big bye round, but the worst-case scenario has happened thereafter - he’s been named in jersey 17! AE-nightmare alert! Edge forwards on the bench are poison for SuperCoach, and barring a late change moving forward Leilua may actually have to be sold.
VERDICT: AVOID/WATCH. Prepare for an annoying use of a trade if he maintains his bench role.
NUFFS
No need for big explanations on types of players here, but the focus is on the Dragons, Roosters, Sharks and Warriors for the best late-in-the-round schedule until the end of the season for VC-loophole purposes. Here are some options covering all positions (except HOK).
Briton Nikora 2RF | CTW (SHA | $164,600)
Josh Kerr FRF | 2RF (STG | $164,600)
Tristan Sailor CTW | FLB (STG | $164,600)
Brock Gray FRF | 2RF (SYD | $164,600)
Zac Lomax CTW | FLB (STG | $164,600)
Kyle Flanagan HFB | 5/8 (CRO | $164,600)
Jai Field 5/8 | FLB (STG | $177,300)
FINAL VERDICT
Players that surpass $300k (or heaven forbid, start to lose cash!) will feature in this section with a summation of where they are at and what you should be looking to do in the future.
Kurt Mann HFB | CTW (STG | $301,100) - 76 points
Man has proven to be a gem between rounds 15-17 with scores of 60, 21 and most importantly 76 points in the big bye round last week - jumping over $115k in value to $301k. That 76 points consisted of two tries, four tackle busts, two line breaks and 20 points in hit ups in what was a dominant display. Remarkably, Mann has been demoted to the bench according to team lists (could still change on game day) and that spells danger for SuperCoaches. The BE is manageable at 15 but if his bench utility scores from the start of the season are anything to go by - average of 16.9PPG in the first 12 matches off the bench - then Mann is going to lose cash QUICK smart.
VERDICT: HOLD. Let’s see how this plays out with final teams and the role for a week, but if he’s that bench utility moving forward he’s a priority trade-out.
Te Maire Martin HFB | 5/8 (NQC | $344,400) - 0 points
If you’re an owner of TMM and Johnathan Thurston, amazingly, the better sell right now is JT. Martin has outscored the best playmaker in SuperCoach history over the past five weeks averaging 46.4PPG, and still possesses a BE of just 23.
The added bonus of dual position to switch with SJ in case of emergency also helps! The plan from here would be to upgrade in two weeks time to a Nathan Cleary type gun who will hopefully have regained the goal kicking duties.
VERDICT: HOLD. For likely two weeks until he tops out in price as handy 5/8 | HFB dual with SJ.
Joe Stimson 2RF (MEL | $323,500) - 64 points
What a buy Stimson turned out to be! Those of you that jumped on three weeks ago speculatively with the prospect of 80 minutes in round 17 coverage were rewarded with scores of 56, 50 and 64 points all in base stats along with over $100,000 in price rises. Stimson returns to the bench this week (providing Kaufusi backs up from Origin) where he will begin to score under 20 points per game and lose cash as soon as next week.
VERDICT: HOLD. Probably for two weeks, and then sell for a dual nuff.
Alexander (AJ) Brimson HFB | 5/8 (GCT | $265,500) - 33 points
Brimson has impressed all that have watched him this season, but the coverage of round 17 was the real gold in him. That is now done and dusted, and the BE has reached 22, edging closer to the season average of 35.6PPG. So, with byes in the rear view mirror set your sights on either upgrading Brimson to a gun like Cody Walker or Gareth Widdop or down to a dual nuff.
VERDICT: HOLD. He could be sold this week if you had the cash, but should at least make money for another week.
* If players aren’t anywhere on the above lists it is because we deem them irrelevant at least for the time being.
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