NRL SuperCoach analysis of Origin teams: Robert Toia shock, Corey Horsburgh hold?

Surprise State of Origin selections, plus ill-timed injuries, have landed right on cue for the toughest week of the SuperCoach year – the first big bye.

It’s all happening in fantasy land.

Shock Origin selections for both NSW and Queensland, plus ill-timed injuries, have landed right on cue for the toughest week of the year – the first big bye.

Here’s the lie of the land as it currently stands (note: this story will be updated when Origin teams are officially announced on Monday).

SUPERCOACH WINNERS FROM ORIGIN TEAMS

James Tedesco - Will miss out for the Blues and therefore THE player to own over the byes given he plays all three big Origin rounds for the Roosters.

Corey Horsburgh - Seems set to miss an Origin spot for the Maroons despite being heavily backed. Now a crucial extra number for this week’s big bye.

Terrell May - The SuperCoach revelation seems set to miss out on Origin despite injuries to Jake Trbojevic (concussion), Jacob Saifiti (calf) and potentially Payne Haas (quad).

Tom Trbojevic - Now becomes a serious cut-priced option after missing Origin selection, with a great schedule to boot. Struggled with a quad injury over the weekend but will be fit for Manly’s next game.

SUPERCOACH LOSERS FROM ORIGIN TEAMS

Robert Toia - Not many saw this coming. One of the best cheapies in SuperCoach 2025 is set to be named for the Maroons, which means he misses 5/8 weeks over Origin.

Payne Haas - Haas will be named for the Blues but is in doubt with a quad injury. No word yet on how this affects his NRL availability going forward.

Beau Fermor - Will be a popular sell after scoring a Maroons bench spot.

Kalyn Ponga - Will be one of the most sold players of round 12 after being confirmed for the Maroons. Unfortunately, poor form, and the associated low price, means the step up to a genuine keeper like Tedesco is a big one.

Angus Crichton, Connor Watson - Named for the Blues and therefore have the worst schedules of anyone, missing 5/8 upcoming weeks.

Tom Gilbert - Suffered a pectoral injury over the weekend, ruling him out of Origin contention, and therefore a SuperCoach sell.

SELL

Dylan Egan - The star cheapie suffered a suspected ACL injury against the Broncos.

Jaxon Purdue - Only scored 23 in his first start in the halves and has the bye this week. Cash in at a profit well over $300,000.

Jacob Kiraz - Suffered a calf injury over the weekend and is expected to miss a month, ending both his Origin and SuperCoach hopes.

Greg Marzhew, Matty Nicholson, Peter Mamouzelous - Old news now but these guys will be popular sells following injuries, with SuperCoaches waiting for Origin teams to make their move

BUY: Jacob Kiraz/Jaxon Purdue/Beau Fermor etc replacements

If you don’t own Reuben Garrick already, do it. He’s the best CTW for the byes and he likely finishes the year as the highest scoring CTW.

The one man who can challenge Garrick’s mantle is Herbie Farnworth, who has scored the most points in the position so far and averaged 82 over the last five rounds. The bye in round 13 is hardly ideal though.

Kayal Iro is the top POD option after averaging 80 for the season, yet only owned by two per cent, but he also has the bye in 13.

Mark Nawaqanitawase is the sexy bye after one of the great tries over the weekend. He also appears a fair way down the list for a NSW wing spot and the Roosters have the best schedule in the competition for non-Origin players (but the worst for Origin players).

Corey Horsburgh is set to miss Origin selection. Picture: Mark Nolan/Getty Images

BUY: Dylan Egan, Angus Crichton, Beau Fermor, Connor Watson, Tom Gilbert replacements

Origin is ‘Joe Tapine Time’. As a proud Kiwi, he is a perennial player of interest during this period and he’s average almost 80 for the year.

Addin Fonua-Blake is coming off a ton for the Sharks in a huge match against the Storm. Not impacted by State of Origin and a very useful piece historically through this period, although the round 13 bye is a bummer.

Zac Hoksing was the second most popular buy last week and will be right up there again in the coming week after 73 including a try and two try contributions. Still under $550K, he’s at a bargain price.

Haumole Olakau’atu has averaged almost 70 this season despite patchy recent form, and has a tasty bye schedule after missing Origin selection.

While he doesn’t play this coming week, Keaon Koloamatangi (106) has averaged 90 since his move to the middle and is a serious option for next week after missing Origin selection.

Top PODs include Briton Nikora at a rare price in the low $500Ks

BUY: Nicho Hynes and Dylan Brown

Although I advise against it, plenty will sell Nathan Cleary this week and these two are the best options. Both are finding their best footy after sluggish starts, are relatively cheap compared to past output and have strong schedules.

HOLD

Dylan Lucas - Injuries to Greg Marzhew and Bradman Best meant Lucas, the second highest averaging CTW of the season, was switched from the pack to centre on the weekend and promptly produced just 48. He’s a hold for the extra number this week, then reassess.

Nathan Cleary, Payne Haas, Cameron Munster, Harry Grant, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui - Your approach obviously depends on team situation and goals (ie: heard-to-head v overall), but all these Origin-bound guns are ideally holds.

Originally published as NRL SuperCoach analysis of Origin teams: Robert Toia shock, Corey Horsburgh hold?