NRL SuperCoach: 10 things we learned Round 2
Two massive SuperCoach myths were finally busted over the weekend — Wayne Bennett is NOT the “SuperCoach Killer” and Cameron Smith is no longer the “unicorn”.
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And just like that, we’re two rounds down for 2019 season and things are already upside down this year.
I mean, just look at the top two teams in the NRL right now!
The next few rounds will tell us if either team is a legitimate contender, but our focus is always on the SuperCoach impact.
Let’s get into it.
1. Guns deserve a second chance…
Not so much something we’ve learned this year, but a timely reminder. Arrow, SJ, Taupau, Cleary, Cook, DCE amongst others all gave us timely reminders they shouldn’t have been written off after just one bad game. Sellers of the above (there are plenty of you) would probably have learned your lessons but let this be a reminder to you all!
2.… but do they deserve a third chance?
The likes of Hodgson, Widdop, Ponga, Milford, Watson, Fitzgibbon, Tapine, Latrell and Holland were all on thin ice after subpar showings in Round 1 and some of them dished up a second stinker, while some exhibited promising signs while still not scoring that great relative to their price tag.
Owners face a difficult decision (perhaps not Tapine owners as he’s injured) as they need to decide if they are jumping ship or riding out any cash losses as they remain confident the player will eventually warm up to the task, saving a precious trade in the process.
3. Wayne Bennett is NOT a SuperCoach Killer
Not a new lesson at all, but do SuperCoaches finally believe? The myth that is Wayne “SuperCoach Killer” Bennett was persistent all preseason – despite the best efforts of Rob Sutherland and a few others (including yours truly) to dispel that idea.
Sure, we may not agree with some of his forward minute rotations and plans, but can you argue with the fact that Sam Burgess, Cam Murray, Adam Reynolds, Cody Walker, Braidon Burns and of course Damien Cook will all be in the upper echelon (if not the top) of SuperCoach players in their respective positions? He has repeatedly (at the Broncos, Dragons and now the Rabbitohs – sorry Knights hah!) managed to bring the best out of a number of different players and we are already seeing some strong signs for this season.
4. The real Slim Shady stood up
It’s hard to argue with the numbers, but Braidon Burns looks legitimate for 2019. Scores of 70 and 77 sound great but it’s the manner in which he has scored the majority of his points that is extremely persuasive. Former owners like myself have to forget the former wing-playing Braidon and focus on the current 80 minute centre-playing Braidon – one who has a small but consistent sample size of 56, 44, 54 and 44 (pending final updates) points in his combined pure base stats (tackles including missed tackles, and hit-ups) and base attack stats (tackle busts and offloads) in his four games (two from the end of 2018, and his first two games this year). If he keeps up those numbers, he is a potential top five CTW option. At the very least, he’s going to go up nicely in price and can be offloaded for someone else later (preferably after playing the first bye).
5. The Unicorn is no more
Cameron Smith used to have the golden touch when it came to SuperCoach – anytime he passed, even if it was a very similar pass to any other hooker, there was a chance of that pass being deemed to be a try assist even if most of the work was done by the other player. Gone are those days, as these former “unicorn” passes were gradually deemed to be worthy of last touch assist status last year; and now 2019, where Smith’s pass to Nelson Asofa-Solomona was finally awarded zero points – all NAS, no Smith! We’re entering a new era of SuperCoach people…
6. Head to Head players may need to adjust their strategy this year
This lesson might seem a bit cryptic, but it relates specifically to the way the score update process has occurred the first two weeks. Specifically, for the most part, we haven’t had any scores update across the two rounds until Monday (bar one game last week). This matters little for overall players but for head to head specialists, it is critical!
From time to time, head to head players can choose to trade or not to trade, to change their reserves, to change their captain options – all based on how their match-up that week is going. This lack of score updates means the onus will be on the players to either watch the games themselves or catch-up afterwards with the highlights or even a condensed version of the game – so that players can be informed of what might actually change.
For example, those who watched the Sharks v Titans game would have been aware that both Fifita and SJ were due some decent updates given the scoring oversights that occurred live – but if you hadn’t watched it, or a least checked out the highlights, you would have had no idea! If the Monday updates are going to be modus operandi moving forward, it’s time to adjust.
7. The Bulldogs are the 2016 Knights
My slight faith in the Bulldogs this week was clearly misplaced – they look every bit the rabble we thought they could have been. The first 20 minutes is always solid, but they fade fast (especially once Aiden Tolman is off the field) and concede points quickly from there. One strategy for overall players in 2016 was to consistently target teams playing the Knights (especially the halves and the left winger) and there could be a similar trend developing for this season. One to watch for sure!
8. Clint GUNtherson is back
If you subscribe to the “second season back from an ACL theory” expounded by everyone’s favourite, @nrlphysio, you probably already own ‘Gutho’. But first two weeks back, he has already shown a strong workrate and a willingness to take the ball back – something he was a little reluctant or hesitant to do last year.
Back to back games of 33 and 32 points in combined pure base and base attack stats show a strong floor, plus his obvious involvement in attacking raids and general support play indicate a decent ceiling. He’s also the back-up kicker at the Eels, if anything were to happen to Moses mid-game. He’s already owned by 11% but that number is sure to shoot up before Round 3 kicks off.
9. Don’t chase last week’s rookie points
Hands up every SuperCoach who played Adam Keighran this week over Dylan Brown – I’m sure there are plenty of you out there. The decision cost you 50 points, but this is the reality of relying on rookies – they are very likely to be inconsistent, especially if they are in the halves or the CTW position. Again, this is certainly not a new lesson but one to be reminded of constantly when deciding your final reserves.
10. Don’t overreact to small sample sizes
This might seem at odds given point #4 above, but ask new owners of Matt Gillett, Jacob Host, Tim Glasby, Brandon Smith and Solomone Kata how they feel right now! This is why the first two weeks are critical, and if you’re going to punt on a Round 1 performer, you need to be convinced they will go well this year. A number of those names were very “iffy” just off their Round 1 performances and you would have been well-served to watch and wait for one more week, as I can’t see anyone rushing to trade in that list of names for Round 3.
Good luck for Round 3
It’s possibly the second most important round of the year (after Round 1) so make sure you prepare well and trade smartly before price changes start rolling through this season for most players.