KFC SuperCoach teams analysis Round 7 2021: Ryan Papenhuyzen injury throws game wide open

It’s a huge trading week for KFC SuperCoach with popular players Ryan Papenhuyzen, Latrell Mitchell and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui all ruled out.

WINNERS

* Jake Simpkin - Most popular cheapie this week after an impressive 56 entirely in base, playing the full 80 minutes. Job security is great given he won the Wests Tigers hooking spot fair-and-square over Jacob Liddle, who remains in reserve grade. Basically a must-have in the next fortnight, although KFC SuperCoaches can wait a week and still get him at the same price.

* Josh Curran - Second most popular cheapie this week. Banged out 77 almost entirely in base last week and has won the Warriors’ edge back row spot on merit ahead of Eliesa Katoa. As with Simpkin above, the safe bet is to wait a week to see if he repeats the heroics and also assess the impact of Bayley Sironen’s return from a shoulder injury.

* Luke Thompson - The mid-range price is slightly awkward, but it’s impossible to argue with the Englishman’s stats. Suspended for the first month, Thompson has hit the ground running by averaging 74 (51 in pure base) over his first two games of 2021 and setting up a projected price rise of $36,400. There’s no doubt he’s a strong buy, but Sangster’s Paradise have too many other dramas and will give him a miss in the hope the Curran buy comes to fruition next week.

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* Sio Siua Taukeiaho - Named by the Roosters despite a rib cartilage injury and the Roosters are hopeful of getting him on the field for ANZAC Day. Fifth most sold player but expect that to change following the news of Papenhuyzen’s injury.

* Brett Morris - Still the fourth top point scorer in KFC SuperCoach 2021 despite missing last week with calf tightness. Named for the Roosters, expected to play and hoping to improve on his crazy record of 11 tries in five games.

* Tom Trbojevic and Kalyn Ponga - Both have only recently returned from injury and both went gangbusters last week, Turbo notching 116 and Ponga 163. Very popular buys this week following the likely suspension of Latrell Mitchell, who is facing four weeks, and injury to Papenhuyzen. But I have Turbo ahead due to the $115,000 discount and Ponga’s tough upcoming run against the Panthers, Roosters and Raiders.

Ryan Papenhuyzen down with concussion and a shoulder injury (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

LOSERS

* Ryan Papenhuyzen – Surging through the most sold list as we speak after being ruled out due to a shoulder injury. Mail out of Melbourne suggests he may also miss next week, while NRL Physio suggests he may miss up to a month. Pap to Turbo nets a very tempting $302,000 for upgrades elsewhere. Hmmmmmmm. I’ve been against fullback flipping this year but the injury to Papenhuyzen totally changes things.

* Latrell Mitchell - Out for four weeks (suspended) and therefore the most sold player. The fullback position is red-hot this year so he definitely needs to go.

* Tino Fa’asuamaleaui - Will spend two-weeks on the sidelines for a shoulder charge after entering an early guilty plea. Put simply, Big Tino hasn’t lived up to KFC SuperCoach expectations this year, dropping $14,100 so far despite predictions of big increases. The likes of David Fifita, Tohu Harris, Isaiah Papali’i and even Josh Curran are calling and he’s therefore the most sold player.

* Jordan Riki - Again named on the bench for the Broncos, where he scored just 19 in 21 minutes last round. He therefore dropped $20,200 last week and is set for another $20,600 this week. Time to cash in for the gains dissolve.

* Jacob Liddle - One of the most sold players for a second week in a row. Dumped to reserve grade last week and stays there this week, with Jake Simpkin preferred. Liddle to Simpkin is most definitely on.

* Tesi Niu - Again named in reserve grade and again one of the most sold players. Take the $113,400 and run, although he’s not an urgent sell given he won’t leak any cash while not playing.

* Paul Momirovski - Suspended for three weeks. One Panther’s loss might be another Panther’s win though with Charlie Staines a chance to receive some ball on his wing now that ‘glue hands’ Momirovski is out.

PANTHERS

Team news: Api Koroisau and Dylan Edwards were both slated to return next week but in a sign that the schedule could be expedited both have been named in the reserves for Thursday night. Paul Momirovski failed to have his dangerous contact charge downgraded at the judiciary on Tuesday night and has been rubbed out for three weeks. The Panthers have a range of options to cover Momirovski the two most likely being Tyrone May slotting straight into centre or Kurt Capewell pushing one slot wider to centre with Liam Martin starting in the second-row though there’s also a chance that Brent Naden earns a recall.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Charlie Staines is the eighth most sold player. He’s only made $54,000, well down on many pre-season predictions, and now sits with a BE of 27. Surely another tryscoring run is coming though, especially with ball hog Paul Momirovski out due to suspension. Staines has completely bucked the KFC SuperCoach trend by going well against the tough teams (56 v Storm and 85 against Raiders) and poorly against the struggling teams (18 v Cowboys, 10 v Bulldogs and 15 v Broncos). Nathan Cleary is already the most popular captain this round despite playing the first game, which denies any chance at the loophole. With Papenhuyzen injured and Teddy out of form, Cleary is a VC at the very least. Brian To’o vindicated his billing as one of last week’s top buys by notching 64 without a try, including 10 tackle busts and 24 runs.

KNIGHTS

Team news: Brodie Jones was superb filling in at centre for the Knights and there was speculation he might hold his spot for the clash against the table-topping Panthers but it is not to be. Hymel Hunt (hamstring) is out replaced on the wing by Starford To’a. Kalyn Ponga is a popular SuperCoach buy but the Knights have a tough trio of matches ahead so beware.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: See Kalyn Ponga analysis above. The fact he managed 163 while struggling with a virus shows he’s a serious factor this year and he’s therefore the eighth most purchased player. What to do with Connor Watson, Jayden Brailey and Josh Schuster? It’s one of the biggest conundrums facing KFC SuperCoaches over the next fortnight given Jake Simpkin sits in the near-must category. Sangster’s Paradise will likely reluctantly sell Watson. The BE of 57 says he’s essentially peaked at a rise of $185,300. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Watson just yet and his average of 65 (44 in base) basically puts him in the borderline keeper category. But someone has to go for Simpkin and right now I’m thinking Watson, but that could all change if Curtis Sironen (shoulder) returns next week and cuts into Schuster’s minutes.

TITANS

Team news: Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (suspended) will miss the next two matches, Mo Fotuaika is a ready made replacement at prop and has been promoted from the interchange bench. Sam McIntyre comes on to the bench in place of Fotuaika. Anthony Don is back and he replaces Jonus Pearson on the wing.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: David Fifita is the top scorer in KFC SuperCoach this season. While attacking stats are his forte, he still managed 78 on the weekend without a try, which is a rather scary proposition for non-owners. Hopefully you already own him because the $784,300 price tag is astronomical. KFC SuperCoach Plus predicts Alexander Brimson’s losses will reach over $200,000 this week and he may become a cut-price purchase for risk-takers. See Tino analysis above.

RABBITOHS

Team news: The Rabbitohs have suspension issues of their own with fullback Latrell Mitchell out which sees Alex Johnston start at fullback. There’s more changes to the backline with Josh Mansour (hamstring) out for up to a month which pushes Dane Gagai to the wing and Steven Marsters (centre) get his first game of 2021. Changes in the forwards too with Jacob Host dropped and Kaeon Koloamatangi promoted to the starting second row.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Latrell Mitchell’s suspension is Cody Walker’s gain. Walker averaged 90-odd after Latrell went down with a serious hamstring injury last year, taking full control of the attack and sweeping to both sides, not just his preferred left. Cody is even a sneaky captaincy option this week. See Latrell Mitchell analysis above. Definite sell.

EELS

Team news: Still no Ryan Matterson — though he has been named in the reserves as he bids to return from his lingering concussion injury. Five-eighth Dylan Brown is back from suspension and Will Smith drops right out of the squad. Boom rookie Will Penisini has been named to make his debut off the interchange replacing Keegan Hipgrave.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Isaiah Papali’i is the second most purchased player this week as KFC SuperCoaches look to move on Big Tino. Yes, Papali’i has been amazing this year, producing the eighth most points of any player and $225,000 price rise so far with another $76,800 predicted this week. But Papali’i is far from a long-term play given Ryan Matterson could return at any moment. Tohu Harris and even Payne Haas are far better long-term prospects for essentially the same price. Reed Mahoney continues to defy the doubters (myself included). He notched his third ton of the year last week and now sits with the third most points of any player. Surely the bubble will burst (although I’ve been saying that for the entire year so far). With a BE of 60, a huge money-making trade to Simpkin must be considered this week or next.

BRONCOS

Team news: There’s a new face for the Broncos with coach Kevin Walters wasting no time in giving his new signing Danny Levi a run in the team naming Levi on the interchange. Herbie Farnworth (shoulder) returns after missing the last two games and he slots in at centre in place of Richie Kennar.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Payne Haas is hardly on fire but still going OK, averaging 63 in 66 minutes. But with a BE of 93 and a stunning SC pedigree, he looms as a great POD play in a week or two at just 4.6 per cent ownership. See Jordan Riki and Tesi Niu analysis above. Both are sells.

SHARKS

1 Will Kennedy, 2 Mawene Hiroti, 3 Josh Dugan, 4 Jesse Ramien, 5 Connor Tracey, 6 Matt Moylan, 7 Chad Townsend, 8 Braden Hamlin-Uele, 9 Blayke Brailey, 10 Aaron Woods, 11 Briton Nikora, 12 Teig Wilton, 13 Toby Rudolf

Bench: 14. Billy Magoulias, 15. Shaun Johnson, 16. Jack Williams, 17. Siosifa Talakai

Reserves: 18. Brayden Trindall, 19. Will Chambers, 20. Franklin Pele, 21. Jenson Taumoepeau

Team news: Shaun Johnson (Achilles) is back - sort of! The superstar half has been named on the interchange bench where he’ll be joined by Jack Williams who has been demoted after starting last week. Josh Dugan returns which sees Teig Wilton move from centre to second-row as cover for Wade Graham (concussion), Graham is expected back next week. Aiden Tolman (suspended) is out.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Matt Moylan is the 10th most sold player after a very handy rise of almost $100,000. Regardless of where Shaun Johnson fits into the side this week (he’s been named on the bench), the BE of 56 says Moylan has peaked for now and Moylan to Jake Simpkin (via Connor Watson) is therefore a popular trade. Teig Wilton is the gift that keeps giving. Whether at centre or back row, he’s producing the goods, averaging a borderline keeper 59.5. KFC SuperCoach Plus predicts he will peak at a rise of around $250,000. Connor Tracey is the cheapie that got away. He has risen $153,000 so far and is expected to break the $200,000 barrier, yet is in just 2.5 per cent of teams. All this despite being switched between bench, centre and wing.

BULLDOGS

Team news: Jack Hetherington (suspended for 5 weeks) is out which sees Luke Thompson shift from lock to prop. Corey Waddell takes Thompson’s 13 jersey and Chris Smith moves to the second row. Renouf Atoni slides from the starting 13 to the bench where he’ll be joined by fresh faces Brad Deitz, Ava Seumanufagai and Matt Doorey. Ofahiki Ogden and Jackson Topine have been dropped.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Canterbury’s most popular KFC SuperCoach player Jack Hetherington has accepted a five-game ban and is therefore a definite sell for the 11 per cent who own him. Other than that, very little doing.

COWBOYS

Team news: Same 17. Ben Hampton (ribs) and Connelly Lemuelu (shoulder) both suffered minor injuries during the Bulldogs game but have been named. Jason Taumalolo (hand) will be sidelined for at least another week.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Ben Condon delivered as one of the most popular buys last week by knocking out 71 in as many minutes including a try. The base of 33 is poor and he’s not a top 17 player, but still he’s projected to rise by another $100,000 or so over the next few weeks. Valentine Holmes looms as an intriguing POD after averaging 69.2 since switching to fullback, yet available at CTW and in just six per cent of teams. He’s a serious alternative to the more popular David Nofoaluma and Zac Lomax.

RAIDERS

Team news: Big changes. Coach Ricky Stuart has swung the axe in the pack, benching Origin forward Josh Papali’i and dumping Joseph Tapine and Sia Soliola out of the 17. Ryan James (rested) returns at prop, forming a new-look front row with Emre Guler. Ryan Sutton moves from prop to lock, while Corey Harawira-Naera and Corey Horsburgh come onto the bench for their first games of the season. Skipper Josh Hodgson (calf) is out injured and replaced by young gun Tom Starling at hooker. Bailey Simonsson (concussion) is out, replaced by Sebastian Kris on the wing.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: At almost 50 per cent ownership, Ryan James is a huge inclusion for KFC SuperCoaches after being rested last week. With the injury-affected scores to roll out of his average, KFC SuperCoach Plus predicts he will rise by around $100,000 over the next few weeks — perfect timing for a pre-Origin upgrade or downgrade. Caleb Aekins was solid on club debut with 37, essentially all in base. His $295,000 price is slightly awkward, but with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad out indefinitely with a neck injury keep an eye on the former Panther as a potential money-maker for next week.

TIGERS

Team news: Asu Kepaoa (ACL) is out for the season, replaced at centre by Michael Chee Kam. Joey Leilua (head knock) has been added to the extended bench as he eyes a comeback. Alex Seyfarth moves from the reserves to the interchange in a swap with Thomas Mikaele. Jake Simpkin had a good game on debut and has been named at hooker despite Jacob Liddle having an outstanding game in NSW Cup.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: David Nofoaluma’s price is getting into juicy territory, dipping by $109,000 and now sitting with a BE of 55. Daine Laurie is as consistent as they come at CTW, not scoring below 47 or above 73. Definite hold at least until the Round 13 bye. Stefano Utoikamanu is nearing his peak (BE 46) after $180,000 in price rises, although you probably have more pressing issues this week. See Jake Simpkin and Jacob Liddle analysis above.

SEA EAGLES

Team news: Same 17 after a strong win over the Titans. Josh Aloiai suffered a heavy knock last week but was able to play on. Curtis Sironen (knee) remains sidelined and is aiming for next week.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Popular cheapie Jason Saab scored two tries and still only managed 44 points. The base of 12 points per game is simply horrid, but at least he’s set up some price rises with a BE of -12. Josh Schuster is fast approaching buy of the year territory after 93 on the weekend, taking his total rises above $200,000 with another $56,000 predicted this week. Let’s see how the return of Curtis Sironen changes things next week, but surely on form Schuster is undroppable and will find a spot in the 17 somewhere. See Tommy Turbo analysis above

ROOSTERS

1 James Tedesco, 2 Daniel Tupou, 3 Josh Morris, 4 Joey Manu, 5 Brett Morris, 6 Drew Hutchison, 7 Sam Walker, 8 Isaac Liu, 9 Sam Verrills, 10 Siosiua Taukeiaho, 11 Angus Crichton, 12 Sitili Tupouniua, 13 Victor Radley

Bench: 14. Benjamin Marschke, 15. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, 16. Nat Butcher 17. Lindsay Collins

Reserves: 18. Fletcher Baker 19. Matt Ikuvalu 20. Egan Butcher 21. Tuku Hau Tapuha

Team news: Two huge inclusions with Brett Morris (calf) and Sam Verrills (knee) returning. Morris replaces Matt Ikuvalu on the wing. Verrills pushes Ben Marschke to the bench and Adam Keighran out of the squad. Victor Radley has been named but fronts the judiciary on Tuesday night where he faces a three-game ban. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (shoulder) and Siosiua Taukeiaho (ribs) have been named but will be checked.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: James Tedesco is the sixth most sold player at the time of writing, but expect that to change dramatically following Papenhuyzen’s injury. Teddy hasn’t fired since the injury crisis at the Roosters, rocking a three-game average of just 57 and he’s therefore dropped into POD captaincy territory at 9.2 per cent. Sam Walker came back down to earth last week with 21, but still rose by almost $100,000 and is set for another $56,500 this week.

DRAGONS

Team news: Blake Lawrie (cork) returns after missing last week with Trent Merrin dropping out of the 17. The Dragons could welcome back Ben Hunt (broken leg) with the skipper named on an extended bench. He returned to running last week and will need to pass a fitness test. Five-eighth Corey Norman (shoulder) has been named despite an injury in Sunday’s game.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Zac Lomax has dropped to a very tempting price, losing $63,000 so far and now sitting with a BE of 69. Add a pure base of 36 to his goalkicking and you get an insane floor of almost exactly 50 points per game.

STORM

1 Nicho Hynes, 2 George Jennings, 3 Reimis Smith, 4 Justin Olam, 5 Josh Addo-Carr, 6 Cameron Munster, 7 Jahrome Hughes, 8 Jesse Bromwich, 9 Brandon Smith, 10 Christian Welch, 11 Felise Kaufusi,12 Ken Bromwich, 13 Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Bench: 14. Harry Grant 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Dale Finucane

Reserves: 18 Dean Ieremia 19. Ryley Jacks 20. Trent Loiero 21. Aaron Pene

Team news: Huge news with Ryan Papenhuyzen (shoulder) to miss 1-2 weeks with an AC joint injury. Nicho Hynes is promoted from the bench to fullback with Dale Finucane (calf) coming onto the interchange after a significant lay-off. Both Harry Grant and Kenny Bromwich left the field due to concussion and will be monitored.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Harry Grant is the seventh most popular buy this week after a man-of-the-match 98 in just 47 minutes. His performance was no doubt brilliant, although I find it very hard to fit him in when he’s averaged just 50 minutes so far and has Origin duties coming up, not to mention Jake Simpkin being a near-must in a stacked position. See Ryan Papenhuyzen analysis from above.

WARRIORS

Team news: Peta Hiku (shoulder), Adam Pompey (knee) and Paul Turner (shoulder) are all out injured. David Fusitu’a (hamstring) returns on the wing with Marcelo Montoya moving to the centres. Jack Murchie takes the other centre spot. Bayley Sironen (shoulder) returns on the bench for Turner. Boom Warriors signing Reece Walsh is on the verge of being handed a fast-tracked debut as New Zealand’s injury toll adds up, although he’s missed the 17 for now and instead included on an extended bench.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: As always, Tohu Harris remains criminally under-owned. Regardless of position, Tohu is guaranteed big minutes every week and his pure base of 60 is the best in the business. David Fusitu’a (hamstring) is a welcome inclusion for 18 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches, although with a BE of 35 he needs to hit some serious tryscoring form to surge in price. See Josh Curran analysis above. Wait until next week if possible.