KFC SuperCoach NRL: Which teams are set for a fast start to 2022?
In theory all NRL draws are equal, but some teams are set to start fast while others will be playing catch-up. We find the winners and losers.
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It’s the annual Strength of Schedule (SOS) bumper edition where we set Rob free of his wordcount limit to try and identify those teams, and players, who should get a quick jump out of the gates.
Every little edge helps when looking to beat your mates at KFC SuperCoach NRL, and hopefully the next few thousand words will provide that edge.
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METHODOLOGY
I have ranked each NRL team using a highly scientific approach – well sort of scientific approach – based on:
* The average PPM conceded to all opponents by a team in 2021.
* The actual number of points conceded over the NRL regular season by that team, and
* The number of times a team leaked 80+ KFC SuperCoach points per game to any one opponent.
And you know I love a caveat so here’s this one – prior performance is of course not a guide to future performance. The Roosters are far lower on this list than they have been in recent years, their horrendous run with injury in 2021 explains much of that. The Bulldogs have recruited well in the off-season, it would not shock to see the climb the ladder here.
With those weasel words in mind here’s my defensive rankings of each NRL team based on their 2021 performance:
KFC SuperCoach defensive rankings (2021) best to worst:
1. Storm
2. Panthers
3. Rabbitohs
4. Sea Eagles
5. Eels
6. Roosters
7. Titans
8. Sharks
9. Raiders
10. Knights
11. Dragons
12. Warriors
13. Wests Tigers
14. Broncos
15. Bulldogs
16. Cowboys
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE AND KFC SUPERCOACH
Before you scroll down to see which teams fared well and which didn’t let’s take a quick pause to check which players benefit most from an ‘easy’ draw and which players don’t.
We’ve been doing this story for a few years now and a clear trend has emerged showing that:
* No position is immune from SOS though props and second row are least impacted,
* As expected, halves see a significant decline in KFC SuperCoach scores when facing the better defensive units,
* Fullback is the position most significantly impacted by SOS,
* Hookers are more susceptible to SOS variations than other forwards, no doubt due to their playmaker role within a spine, and
* CTW is the backline position least impacted by SOS.
2022 FIRST EIGHT ROUNDS STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE AND ANALYSIS (best draw to worst)
1. ROOSTERS: Knights, Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs, Cowboys, Broncos, Warriors, Dragons, Bulldogs.
SOS score: 51
Analysis: The Roosters have comfortably the best SOS of any team. Six games in Sydney with just two trips to Queensland (rounds four, Townsville, and five, Broncos) is pretty kind. Matches against the Rabbitohs are almost always spicy and the round three match, which sees Latrell Mitchell return after serving his suspension for applying his shoulder to the face of Joey Manu, will have extra hot sauce drizzled on top. After that the remaining games look positive with the only glitch being a five-day turnaround between round 7-8.
Player(s) to watch: Could it be anyone other than James Tedesco? The star fullback is already owned by 36% of KFC SuperCoaches and I expect he’ll get off to a fast start in round one against the Knights. Rounds two and three Manly/Rabbitohs are not great but after that it’s POINTS. Luke Keary is just below 30% ownership and as the senior playmaker he too could prosper particularly from rounds 4-8.
Eq. 2. BRONCOS: Rabbitohs, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Warriors, Roosters, Panthers, Bulldogs, Sharks
SOS score: 59
Analysis: It’s reasonably rare for a team ranked as poorly as a defensive outfit to score so well in SOS. But do the Broncos flatter to deceive? They’ve got the Bulldogs twice and as noted above the Dogs look to be, on paper at least, the most improved team heading into 2022. ‘Friday night Broncos’? Not so much to start 2022 with Brisbane playing two Sunday afternoons and a Saturday afternoon game within the first eight rounds. Ensconced in Brisbane, the Broncos make just two trips down to Sydney in the opening two months.
Player(s) to watch: Hmm, hard to find … the Bronco you really want is Payne Haas and as a middle forward he’s not SOS immune, but he’s less impacted. Selwyn Cobbo/Kotoni Staggs have some appeal for differing reasons but at centre and wing their appeal is not dramatically altered by the SOS rating.
Eq. 2. COWBOYS: Bulldogs, Raiders, Broncos, Roosters, Warriors, Raiders, Titans, Eels
SOS score: 59
Analysis: So much for the ‘it’s rare for poor team … etc’ as the Cowboys join the Broncos on 59 SOS points. Travel is not much of a problem with six of eight games in Queensland. They have one trip to Canberra for a night game but in good news for the men from the tropics, April nights barely reach single digits in the nation’s capital so it shouldn’t be too chilly for the Cowboys. The match against the Eels is the toughest on the SOS but in a win for the Cowboys it’s scheduled for Darwin and if any team is built to enjoy the hot and humid NT it’s the Cowboys.
Player(s) to watch: Exciting young speedster Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is locked in to play fullback in 2022 and while he sits at just 6% ownership I think there’s an argument that his rate should be higher. In three games at fullback in 2021, including tough matchups against the Roosters and Eels, HTF averaged 66.7 with 30PPG of that in base. Now that’s a small sample size, and for full disclosure HTF was not as impressive at fullback in 2021 averaging 39PPG from seven games. But that was 2020, this is now. HTF has played Origin since then, scoring a try on debut for the Maroons, and his coach identified that he would be the starting fullback early on in the pre-season giving the youngster both a huge vote in confidence and also plenty of time to settle in at the back. St George youngster Tyrell Sloan is $30K more expensive, less experienced and playing for a team with a much harder opening SOS. That’s some Sydney bias for you.
Eq. 2. WARRIORS: Dragons, Titans, Tigers, Broncos, Cowboys, Roosters, Storm, Raiders, Titans, Eels
SOS score:59
Analysis: Four of the opening five games are very positive for the Warriors so there’s every chance their playmakers get off to a strong start in KFC SuperCoach … sadly prices won’t change till round three but you can’t have everything!
Player to watch: Last year was a mixed bag for Shaun Johnson with injury limiting him to just 10 games at the Sharks playing a mix of six and seven and looking restricted in terms of being able to inject himself into the play. SJ will be calling the shots at the Warriors no matter who wears the six, and the draw is a kind one - BUT Johnson did not trial at all in the pre-season and that concerns me. Cannot have.
5. STORM: Tigers, Rabbitohs, Eels, Bulldogs, Raiders, Sharks, Warriors, Knights
SOS score: 61
Analysis: Five of the opening eight games at home is a win for the Storm – though to be fair this team is hard to beat no matter the venue. Rounds 2-6 could be tricky if the Bulldogs are as improved on the paddock as they are on paper, as every other game in that stretch is a tough one.
Player(s) to watch: The obvious urge here is to point to Ryan Papenhuyzen. The star fullback had a horror run with concussion in 2021 and was also in a bit of a job/role share with Nicho Hynes when he was fit. Assuming the noggin is all clear, the job security is too with Hynes having departed to the Shire. The other player I want to highlight is Cameron Munster. By his own admission off-field issues took a toll on Munster’s on field preparation at times last year. A stint in rehab, off the booze and the punt, Munster could be the player who rips apart the competition this year. Not available in round one due to suspension, I’m toying with picking him to start anyways as a major POD.
Eq. 6. EELS: Titans, Sharks, Storm, Dragons, Titans, Tigers, Knights, Cowboys
SOS score:63
Analysis: There’s a fair bit of travel for Parramatta with just three games at ‘fortress’ CommBank Stadium in an opening eight weeks which includes trips to Melbourne, Gold Coast, Newcastle and Darwin.
Player to watch:Junior Paulo – No seriously! The big man started 2021 on fire with tries in each of the opening two games and big base from big minutes. The next fortnight was good with consecutive 60+ scores and then it all fell into rather a heap with a major dip in minutes through the middle of the season. Paulo’s minutes rebounded over the back end of the regular season and with that we saw a lift in scoring though still well short of both his early output, and what we saw in 2020. There are others I prefer at the position (Haas/Utoikamanu since you didn’t ask), but if injuries decimate the ranks of the more popular FRF options then I’ve my eye on the recently appointed Parramatta co-captain.
Eq. 6. PANTHERS: Manly, Dragons, Knights, Rabbitohs, Bulldogs, Broncos, Raiders, Titans
SOS score: 63
Analysis: The premiers launch their defence at home, as they should, with a tasty match against Manly which will let us know where both teams sit early. Just two trips out of Sydney in the first two months is a win with one of those a ‘home’ match in Bathurst. The Rabbitohs in round four is the toughest match of the run – but it will be a Rabbitohs team coming in off the back of matches against the Storm and Roosters so they’ll be nicely softened up.
Player(s) to watch: Two for one here.Jarome Luai started last season in sensational form averaging 84.5 PPG over the fist six rounds. Nathan Cleary then ignited and Luai became somewhat of an onlooker averaging 48PPG over the next six games while Cleary averaged 123.5PPG. But don’t go thinking the fact that Cleary will miss the opening three weeks of the season due to injury is automatically a benefit to Luai. When Origin and injury benched Cleary through the middle of the season, Luai’s output plummeted averaging just 34.25 when playing without his mate with the monumental mentum. The other Penrith POD I wish to highlight is Stephen Crichton. Penrith used Crichton as a Mr Fix-It last year moving him between his favoured left centre to fullback, right centre and wing. Back in the centres, and I expect back to his preferred left edge, Crichton appeals as a POD – especially now he is at least sometimes looking to pass to unmarked wingers.
8. SHARKS: Raiders, Eels, Dragons, Knights, Tigers, Storm, Manly, Broncos
SOS score: 69
Analysis: Cronulla may just creep into the ‘eight’ as it were but there’s a fair jump in SOS from the Panthers to here. And it’s not just a generally strong opposition that makes it tough for Cronulla. There’s travel – four games out of Sydney – and also some tight turnarounds with two five-day turnarounds.
Player to watch: It’s gotta be Nicho Hynes doesn’t it? The new recruit is owned by 17% of teams at the moment and I think that’s much too high. Hynes will play in the halves after playing fullback/utility for the Storm in 2021 and the positional switch combined with the high price has me looking elsewhere. Starting the season at $686K, Hynes needs to average almost 80PPG to retain his value. To put that in perspective, only two halves (Cleary and Cody Walker) managed to average 80+ in 2021. Hynes is very good, he showed good workrate and scored well in the All Stars game. But I don’t see him immediately being an elite player at a position he has not consistently filled in the NRL. The value is not there for mine, and the tough draw is no help either.
Eq. 9. RAIDERS: Sharks, Cowboys, Titans, Sea Eagles, Storm, Cowboys, Panthers, Warriors
SOS score: 70
Analysis: You know there’s gotta be some tough games in the schedule when you finish worse than midfield on SOS despite having two games against the easiest ranked opponent. That rough run spans rounds 4-7 which includes Manly, Storm and Penrith. Just three games at home is tough and there’s one five-day turnaround which comes after that Storm game.
Player to watch: Am a big fan of Joe Tapine who excelled for the Maori All Stars this year continuing on the fine form he brought to the end of the 2021 regular season. It was when switched to prop that Tapine really found his KFC SuperCoach sweet spot last year averaging 61PPG of which 52.4PPG came in lovely reliable base stats over the final seven rounds of 2021. And in the All Stars, as noted by the inestimable Wilfred Zee, Tapine played 60 minutes, scoring a try with a line break, creating another try with a line break assist, on top of making 26 tackles and 111 metres from his 14 runs. All of this on his way to 98 KFC SuperCoach points. Of course, what is always noted after any ‘Tapine is good’ comment, is, ‘but can we trust Ricky Stuart to give him the minutes he needs.’ Can we? I don’t know but hopefully trials give us a guide because he’s awfully tempting as a 2RF3/4 who provides valuable FRF cover and whose output should not be overly dented by a tough draw.
Eq. 9 RABBITOHS: Broncos, Storm, Roosters, Panthers, Dragons, Bulldogs, Tigers, Sea Eagles
SOS score: 70
Analysis: With no offence to Brisbane, you’d think the beaten grand-finalists would be pencilling in a win to open the season – even if it is against former skipper Adam Reynolds at his new home in Brisbane. After that though things get much tougher with both the Storm and Panthers away and the always feisty derby against the Roosters.
Player(s) to watch: The tough opening draw means the 50% of us picking cheapie Lachlan Ilias should temper our expectations about his ability to generate fast cash with the Storm and Panthers positively miserly against halfbacks last year and the Broncos and Roosters pretty tight too. One player I will be watching very closely is Latrell Mitchell. He is unavailable until round two due to suspension which means his price will not start moving until round five. Last year, when not suspended or injured, Mitchell was a picture of consistency scoring 60+ in 82% of games. This year I expect he will take over the goalkicking duties and that should add at least 10PPG to his average. I’ll be starting with Teddy and Tom Trbojevic at fullback but if Mitchell looks good in round two, and Trbojevic has had a stinker, then the trade will be made.
Eq. 9. TITANS: Eels, Warriors, Raiders, Tigers, Eels, Sea Eagles, Cowboys, Panthers
SOS score: 70
Analysis: Quite the mixed bag featuring four trips away and one five-day turnaround with the Eels home and away, Manly away but at least they get the Panthers at home.
Player to watch: The big unit David Fifita of course. I mention above that forwards tend to be somewhat SOS resistant due to so much of their score coming in base. Fifita bucks that trend. Less than half (44.7% to be precise) of Fifita’s 85PPG average in 2021 was scored in base. The difference between Fifita’s best and worst is quite dramatic. Fifita averages just 40PPG from five combined games against the Panthers/Storm and 88.8PPG from five combined games against the Broncos/Knights. As for the teams he faces to start the season? Across his career Fifita has been held to an average under 70PPG by just two of them (Warriors and Panthers). Even more impressive, if you look at his 2021 performances against his rounds 1-8 opponents (10 games) the big unit’s worst score was 60 points against the Warriors (round one when he was underdone due to an infection) and he averaged 84.6PPG. There’s huge reward here, there’s high risk. You know that, I’m just putting some numbers to it is all.
Eq. 12. BULLDOGS: Cowboys, Broncos, Sea Eagles, Storm, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Broncos, Roosters
SOS score: 76
Analysis: The Bulldogs could be 2-0 to open the season, I’m no historian but think the last time that happened was around 2016, and it’s been 0-2 a few times since. But then, ouch! Travel is pretty good with five games in Sydney, two in Queensland and one in Melbourne. There is one five-day turnaround, it falls between Panthers and Rabbitohs.
Player to watch: New recruit Matt Burton is currently in 11% of teams and I think that’s too high. He will undoubtedly hold the reins at the Bulldogs, which is a win. He’s also set to play on the left with Tevita Pangai Jr inside him and Brent Naden/Josh Addo-Carr outside him – another win. AND when playing five-eighth last year (six games) Burton averaged 75.7, another win. So why is he a wait and watch? Well, that draw that’s why. In the Storm (1st), Panthers (2nd), Rabbitohs (3rd), Sea Eagles (4th) and Roosters (5th) you have the five best defensive units as compared to five-eighths.
Eq. 12. SEA EAGLES: Panthers, Roosters, Bulldogs, Raiders, Knights, Titans, Sharks, Rabbitohs
SOS score: 76
Analysis: On paper the schedule is a tough one, in reality I think it’s harder than that. Obviously the opening fortnight against Panthers and Roosters (both away) will test the team, as will the Rabbitohs in round eight. Add in the Bulldogs, Raiders and Sharks, and Manly face teams that I believe will lift on their 2021 ranks. Travel is not an issue mind you, with trips to Mudgee, Newcastle and Gosford the extent of it. Just one five-day turnaround and it falls between Raiders in round four and Knights in round five.
Player to watch: Again it can only be one guy, Tom Trbojevic. At the time of writing Turbo’s ownership sits at around 19% - myself included. If any player is ‘matchup proof’ maybe it’s Tom - after all he scored 159 and 179 against the Eels last year and they were a team who defended well against all other fullbacks in 2021. Also, Manly have started dropping stories regarding their concern that the reintroduction of penalties for defensive infringements within the 40m zone will hamper their attacking flair. They sound nervous that opposing coaches will have come up with ways to contain the Turbo. But to paraphrase Mike Tyson: ‘everyone has a plan to contain Turbo till he hits them with his pace.’
14. DRAGONS: Warriors, Panthers, Sharks, Eels, Rabbitohs, Knights, Roosters, Tigers
SOS score: 77
Analysis: With just one trip away from Sydney/Wollongong, no five-day turnarounds and ‘just’ two of the top-four finishers from 2021 the draw looks okay for the Dragons. However, outside of those top-four games they also face the Roosters and Eels and in the remaining four games they do not get to play one of the bottom three on our SOS rankings.
Player to watch: Young gun Talatau Amone is a popular pick currently in around 40% of teams. The tough draw isn’t in itself off-putting re the selection of Amone, but as with Ilias (above) I think it should be filed away in the back of your mind if you are counting on big early price rises. Also, should you read about how Amone scored well against the Rabbitohs last year, keep in mind that the Dragons played South Sydney in round 25 when the bulk of the South Sydney stars were rested
15. WESTS TIGERS: Storm, Knights, Warriors, Titans, Sharks, Eels, Rabbitohs, Dragons
SOS score: 77
Analysis: Like the Dragons above, while the Wests Tigers have a couple of headline ‘tough matches’ in Storm and Rabbitohs, the element that pushed them towards the bottom of this list is the general strength of their remaining opponents with the ‘easiest’ opponent being the Warriors who are ranked fifth worst on the scale. Travel is okay with just one trip to Queensland, and one road trip north to Newcastle and one south to Wollongong. There are two five-day turnarounds though falling between rounds 2/3 and 6/7.
Player to watch: I’ll stick with the playmakers here. Jackson Hastings is in a quarter of teams and, again, we’re going to have to moderate our expectations based on his team’s SOS. Hastings is a worker so he’ll still score okay thanks to his defensive effort, but moderate your attacking expectations.
16. KNIGHTS: Roosters, Tigers, Panthers, Sharks, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Eels, Storm
SOS score: 86
Analysis: With games against five of the teams who finished top-six last year it’s easy to see how Newcastle slid all the way to last on the table here. Being a one-town team the Knights are used to travel and they’ll hit the road in four of their opening eight games with a couple of trips to Sydney and one each to Bathurst (to play Penrith) and Wollongong. No five-day turnarounds.
Player to watch: Outside the obvious Chris Randall, who is pretty much a must following the injury to Jayden Brailey, there is very little of SC relevance in the team as it stands. Randall scores the overwhelming majority of his points in defence so rather than being disadvantaged by the draw he’s one guy who should do fine even as his team struggles. It’s not good news for star fullback Kalyn Ponga mind you, this draw would have me avoiding him.
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