KFC SuperCoach NRL teams analysis Round 9
After a very eventful teams day, the biggest question facing KFC SuperCoaches is whether to take a punt on one of the NRL’s most likeable players.
SuperCoach
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperCoach. Followed categories will be added to My News.
NRL teams are in for Round 9 and these are the biggest talking points.
WINNERS
* Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Enormous news with the popular cheapie named at fullback ahead of Valentine Holmes, with Holmes switching to the wing. KFC SuperCoach Stats predicts a huge full-season rise of $275,000 for The Hammer.
*Tex Hoy – We weren’t expecting this. Hoy, usually a five-eighth or fullback, has been named on the wing in place of Edrick Lee (broken arm) and looms as a genuine cheapie at $195,300.
* Beau Fermor – The young Titans cheapie is the most purchased player this week after a promising 76 in 74 minutes on debut. However, he reverts to centre this week, then has Kevin Proctor returning next week. Too many question marks so reverse trades and wait until next week.
* Zac Lomax – The 10th most popular player in KFC SuperCoach has been named for the Dragons despite a leg injury last week. With an average of 60.4 this year, Lomax is producing keeper scores.
* Kalyn Ponga – I have him as a “winner” because he has been named despite a concussion last week and is expected to play. That’s great news for most of his 53,000 owners, but there is a significant argument to sell this week to the next guy on this list.
* Clint Gutherson – Second most purchased player this week. Has stepped up in the absence of Mitchell Moses with scores of 103 and 166 in the last fortnight and therefore set for a ridiculous rise over the next two weeks of $123,000. Take into account Ponga’s projected drop of $115,000 and you’re looking at a $238,000 turnaround. Be warned though, this is not a long-term move (final verdict below).
LOSERS
* Jamayne Taunoa-Brown and Eliesa Katoa – Both young Warriors forwards have peaked at rises of around $200,000 so it’s time to upgrade. Currently one and three respectively on the most sold list.
* Matt Moylan, Braidon Burns, Edrick Lee, Brendan Elliott, Daniel Tupou – All out long-term through injury. None of these players is KFC SuperCoach relevant but look out for replacements and game time shifts.
COWBOYS
Comment: Big news with Val Holmes pushed to the wing and Tabuai-Fidow recalled to play fullback. I’m not sure you’d want to start HTF against the Roosters but the cheapie’s recall is just what plenty of KFC SuperCoach NRL players were hoping to hear. Holmes takes Justin O’Neill’s (injured) wing spot. One more change in the backline with Connelly Lemuelu coming in to centre at the expense of Tom Opacic. No Jordan McLean so Francis Molo wins a start and Tom Gilbert comes on the interchange bench.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: The return of The Hammer is huge for KFC SuperCoach. Even after a $75,000 rise, he’s still the cheapie of the week for those who aren’t already on. Scott Drinkwater has done a handy job in making $92,000.
But he now sits with a break even of 72 and is therefore the fifth most sold player, with Tex Hoy the obvious cheapie replacement. Likewise, Coen Hess is the ninth most sold after making a handy $104,000. Upgrade to the keeper of your choice but avoid the downgrade to Fermor for now.
ROOSTERS
Comment: Injury has opened the door for Ryan Hall to get an extended run on the wing for the Roosters. With a very solid base, Hall is a sneaky POD play in KFC SuperCoach NRL classic and should definitely be on your radar in draft. Boyd Cordner (concussion) is out with his place taken on the left edge by Mitch Aubusson and Lachlan Lam coming on to the bench.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: With a bunch of early-season cheapies and sleepers having peaked, it’s a huge week for upgrades and Angus Crichton is the most popular of this lot in the forwards. Crichton sits in “Super POD” territory, only owned by seven per cent despite the highest average of any forward (85.9) and second highest average of any player behind teammate James Tedesco. Crichton’s ownership is so low because of a lacklustre pre-season at centre, before missing round one through illness. However, the centre switch was quickly knocked on the head and he’s played 80 minutes in the back row every time he’s taken the field in the NRL this year. While attacking stats have no doubt helped (four tries and a try assist this year), his pure base is outrageously strong for an edge back rower at 56. The only drawback is that he’s due a rest by Rotation Robinson.
Brett Morris is in the midst of an insane season. He has the third most points of any player this year, averaging 78.6. His previous highest average was 58.9 back in 2015 when he played fullback at the Bulldogs.
FULL TEAMS: Pommy import one to watch
CASUALTY WARD: Four key players out long-term
10 THINGS: Is it time to sell Ponga?
TITANS
Comment: This isn’t a reshuffle, it’s a wholesale change. Corey Thompson’s return to fullback is the most conventional of the positional swaps. From there, Beau Fermor’s KFC SuperCoach NRL cheapie credentials get a boost, but not at second row as he was last week. Instead Fermor has been named to start at centre in place of Brian Kelly. It’s a strange centre pairing at the Gold Coast with Bryce Cartwright replacing Tyrone Peachey (interchange). Phillip Sami has lost his wing spot to Treymain Spry. Changes up front too, with hooker Mitch Rein (calf) replaced by Erin Clark while Sam Stone takes Fermor’s second row spot.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Jai Arrow is the seventh most sold player and sadly the crowd is correct. Formerly a 1.2 PPM guy, he’s dropped to 0.99 this year. As detailed above, take another week to look at boom cheapie Beau Fermor.
WARRIORS
Comment: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (suspension) is a welcome inclusion. RTS’ return sees Peter Hiku shift to centre at the expense of Gerard Beale. Change in the halves with Kodi Nikorima (concussion) out, this sees Blake Green move to halfback and Chanel Harris-Tavita come into the starting side at five-eighth. Movement up front with Adam Blair shifting from lock to prop at the expense of Agnatius Paasi (interchange). Karl Lawton named to start at lock but Jazz Tevaga returns from injury and I expect he will come in at lock when Lawton needs a rest. This signals an end to Tohu Harris’ days as a KFC SuperCoach POD as he will now spend the full 80 minutes on an edge.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: On behalf of all serious KFC SuperCoaches, we say a big thanks to star cheapie Jamayne Taunoa-Brown. He is the most sold player this week after making just a shade short of $200,000 and the BE of 57 says we must move quickly. It’s a similar story for teammate Eliesa Katoa, who is injured again and therefore the third most sold player after being the most sold player last week at a $220,000 profit.
RABBITOHS
Comment: Braidon Burns (patella) is facing a lengthy stint in rehab and in his place the Rabbitohs have named Bayley Sironen in an all forward bench.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Many who jumped on Latrell Mitchell a few weeks ago appear to have lost interest with the Rabbitohs fullback the eighth most sold player. Going against the pre-season argument of better involvement at fullback, Latrell’s base has actually dropped this year. He has produced only TWELVE points in pure base this season (when the average of five negative points are taken into account) compared to 16 at centre for the Roosters last year (including four negatives). Damien Cook is on a tear, averaging 82.3 in the last three rounds. Sangster’s Paradise won’t be holding Apisai Koroisau forever and Cook looms as the best replacement in a few weeks ahead of Cameron Smith, whose halves foray was a great success in actual NRL but ominous for KFC SuperCoach (more below).
WESTS TIGERS
Comment: Joseph Leilua (suspended) is replaced at centre by Michael Chee-Kam with Chee-Kam’s spot on the interchange bench taken by veteran Chris Lawrence.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Harry Grant is nicknamed “The Bin Chicken” by his Tigers teammates because he gets his dirty nose into everything. And this commitment is reflected in his KFC SuperCoach stats, averaging 75.3 and looking every part a keeper to the end. Luciano Leilua is the sixth most sold player for good reason. He copped a big drop in score (and price) on the weekend due to concussion and is set to drop again this week. Upgrade to Crichton if you have the cash.
SHARKS
Comment: Matt Moylan (hamstring) is out and replaced at fullback by Josh Dugan with Bryson Goodwin moving from wing to centre to replace Dugan and Ronaldo Mulitalo coming on to the wing to cover for Goodwin.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Snap poll on Cronulla’s top scorer this year? No it’s not Shaun Johnson, Wade Graham, Aaron Woods or any of the big names. It’s winger Sione Katoa, who wasn’t even a certainty for Round 1 yet sits with a season average of 66.8.
Popular early-season cheapie Will Kennedy misses out on the fullback spot despite the injury to Matt Moylan, with Josh Dugan preferred. Popular prop Toby Rudolf has a BE of 35 and could be sold at any time after making $167,000.
PANTHERS
Comment: Brian To’o (ankle) is a long term loss for the Panthers and is replaced on the wing this week by Brent Naden which opens the door for Dean Whare to return to the side at centre.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Such a popular KFC SuperCoach team with Isaah Yeo, Apisai Koroisau, Jarome Luai, Nathan Cleary and Viliame Kikau all owned by over 20 per cent. But Luai is the one of interest this week after getting a second wind. Despite constant rumours of being usurped by fellow young gun Matt Burton, Luai produced his best game of the season on the weekend (81) and is predicted to add another $60,000 in the next few weeks before topping out at a rise of $200,000.
A much-maligned position for basically the entire history of KFC SuperCoach, CTW is suddenly a hotbed, with 11 players averaging over 60. Of those Josh Mansour has the lowest ownership. POD alert!
BRONCOS
Comment: Under-fire coach Anthony Seibold has resisted the urge to make changes, naming the same 17 players as last week. However, there is a positional reshuffle with Tevita Pangai Jnr moving to prop, Thomas Flegler to the bench and Corey Oates to start in the second row. Kotoni Staggs (hamstring) and Matt Lodge (knee) have been named on an extended bench as they eye returns.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Patrick Carrigan has topped out after making $142,000 (BE 52). But he’s averaging 60 so Sangster’s Paradise will hold for now and play in the 17. Xavier Coates’ last three scores are 52, 9 and 90. You can guess which week I played him. Pre-season fancy David Fifita is due back next week and could be an immediate value buy at $501,900, a saving of essentially $200,000 on the top keepers in the position and $100,000 below the borderline keepers.
BULLDOGS
Comment: One forced change with Adam Elliott (shoulder) replaced at lock by British recruit Luke Thompson, who will make his NRL debut.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Very interested to see how English import Luke Thompson goes on NRL debut after being named to start at lock. The KFC SuperCoach mathematicians have been pretty generous with the price of $450,000 given his Super League and Test pedigree. That said, he hasn’t played for a long time after spending two weeks in quarantine and missing last week, so don’t expect miracles straight away.
RAIDERS
Comment: Sia Soliola (facial fracture) may have played his last game for the club, while Emre Guler (ankle) is also out. Dunamis Lui and Kai O’Donnell come into the 17. Joe Tapine starts at lock with Ryan Sutton reverting to the pine. Jordan Rapana takes Curtis Scott’s place on the interchange.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Once considered the most consistent (some would even say best) CTW in KFC SuperCoach history, Jarrod Croker has averaged just 42 this year. That’s 11 points down on last year and almost 30 points down on his season best, and he’s therefore no longer a factor. Boom early season cheapie Emre Guler is injured and therefore a sell after making $127,000. George Williams keeps on keeping on … no need to sell yet.
STORM
Comment: Cameron Smith reverts to hooker despite starring in the halves last week. But look out for the game-day switch of Smith to five-eighth, Brandon Smith to hooker and Ryley Jacks to the bench. Suliasi Vunivalu (hamstring) is replaced by Marion Seve on the wing. Cameron Munster (knee) has been named in reserves and could make an early return.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Cameron Smith was already the rugby league GOAT but further enhanced his reputation on the weekend by orchestrating a brilliant win over the best team in comp — from the halves. Unfortunately, the playmaking switch wasn’t great for KFC SuperCoach. While he scored a very commendable 54, it was his lowest score of the season and his tackle count dropped from an average of 39.2 this year to 22.
In an ideal world, non-owners should hope for a string of games in the halves, which would lead to a huge price drop before jumping on when Cameron Munster returns. However in reality, this looks unlikely with Munster named on an extended bench this week.
KNIGHTS
Comment: Kalyn Ponga (concussion) has been named and is expected to play. Winger Edrick Lee (broken arm) is replaced by young tyro Tex Hoy. Aidan Guerra starts in the back row for Sione Mata’utia (concussion). Starford To’a and Brodie Jones are the new faces on the bench.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Bradman Best is the fourth most sold player, which doesn’t quite make sense. Yes, he has peaked for now (he lost $24,100 last week and now sits with a BE of 82) but still has that tackle busting, high work rate game to be a top 17 player for now.
EELS
Comment: Nathan Brown (suspension) is a key inclusion at lock, pushing Marata Niukore to the bench. Popular early-season cheapie Stefano Utoikamanu finally earns his debut off the interchange with Ray Stone and Oregon Kaufusi out of the 17.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Clint Gutherson is the second most purchased player behind only the cheapie Fermor. Scores of 103 and 166 have him sitting pretty with a projected price rise of $78,200 on top of $94,900 last week. He is clearly loving the extra responsibly with Mitchell Moses out, producing five try assists in the last two weeks compared to just one for the full season before that. Taking Moses’s kicking duties has also added 36 points in the last fortnight. Note however, Moses is due back next week and Gutherson’s involvement will likely reduce after that.
In short, while GUN-therson has been brilliant in the last fortnight, he should only be thought of as a short term cash grab. Flicking around fullbacks depending on match-ups, price fluctuations etc is a genuine tactic this year, but only once the rest of your side is set up. It’s a no from me.
DRAGONS
Comment: Big gun Tariq Sims (wrist) returns in the back row, pushing Tyrell Fuimaono to the bench and Korbin Sims out of the 17. Ben Hunt has been playing hooker from the bench over the last few weeks but he starts in the No. 9 this week with Cameron McInnes switching to lock and Trent Merrin benched. Jordan Pereira replaces Jason Saab on wing.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Sangster’s Paradise were very tempted by Cameron McInnes this week until the teams lobbed and we saw he was named at lock. McInnes has amazing consistency with a low score of 58 this year. He has the fourth highest average of any 2RF, but is only owned by 10.6 per cent. However, with Hunt named at hooker this week and four big-men on the bench, the rotation is up in the air and I’ll take another look this week.
SEA EAGLES
Comment: Just the one forced change with Addin Fonua Blake (suspension) replaced at starting prop by Taniela Paseka with Morgan Boyle added to the bench.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Surprisingly devoid of KFC SuperCoach talent at the moment with their best three players non-factors. Tom Trbojevic is injured, Addin Fonua-Blake is suspended and Jake Trbojevic is basically a halfback. Former KFC SuperCoach gun Martin Taupau has dropped $160,000 this year and with AFB out, he’s a value option for the serious risk takers.