KFC SuperCoach NRL teams analysis Round 12
Forget Payne Hass, Cameron Smith, Jason Taumalolo etc … none of them even come close to Cameron McInnes in this crucial KFC SuperCoach stat.
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KFC SuperCoach editor Tom Sangster runs his rule over the Round 12 NRL teams.
WINNERS
* Ryan Matterson – Named despite a concussion last week. Matterson has a history of head knocks — he missed six games in 2018 — but the 10-day turnaround bodes well. It’s an anxious wait until the second last game of the round, although Brad Arthur is usually straight up and down with his team so we should know Matto’s availability by the first Saturday game.
* Payne Haas – The topscoring prop in KFC SuperCoach trained with the rehab group on Monday but has been named and is expected to play. He has averaged 72 minutes this year, the most of any prop, and certainly deserved a break from training.
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* Jaxson Paulo – Currently just the 21st most popular buy, but the rookie Rabbitoh is sure to surge through the rankings and is my pick for cheapie of the week. Paulo has the best job security of all cheapies after retaining a backline spot despite the return of Latrell Mitchell.
In short, a South Sydney wing spot is Paulo’s to lose with main rival Corey Allan dropped to reserves and James Roberts and Braidon Burns both out for the season. That said, he’s far from a perfect buy given he’s coming off a 14 point shocker, although he was much more impressive on debut with 46 (including 18 runs).
* Andrew Davey – Most popular cheapie of the week and third most popular player overall after averaging 48 over his first two games. However, he saw inflated minutes in both games due to injuries so it’s hard to assess his par score, although the job security is decent with Brad Takairangi and Stefano Utoikamanu dropped ahead of him.
* Daejarn Asi – Last week’s most popular cheapie was named for the Cowboys so sits on the winner’s list, but he will soon fizzle as a buy. He battled through a knee injury on the weekend and notched just 19 points in the full 80 minutes. He has limited earning potential (KFC SuperCoach Stats predicts he will rise by just $33,100) and will be unseated when Michael Morgan returns as early as next week, while Scott Drinkwater is due back two weeks after that.
* Cameron Munster – Fifth most purchased player this week. Named despite a concussion last round and is in a 50-50 battle with Shaun Johnson to end the year as the top-averaging five-eighth.
* Cameron Smith – Most purchased player again following another ton, his third of the year. Smith has scored the most points of any player this year and has the second highest average behind Teddy.
LOSERS
* Apisai Koroisau – The star early-season buy was a shock inclusion on the extended bench despite assertions from the club he will miss “a few more weeks”. Even so, he remains in serious doubt and is a sell regardless.
* David Fifita – The popular early-season buy was set to return this week but will sit out another round with a knee injury. He will be a value POD when he returns at $501,900, a saving of essentially $200,000 on the top keepers in the position, but the best bet is to wait a week given the BE of 51.
DRAGONS
Teams comment: Tariq Sims returns from suspension and regains his starting role on an edge pushing Tyrell Fuimaono to the interchange bench. Jason Saab is out replaced on the wing by Jordan Pereira. Adam Clune (concussion) is out which sees Ben Hunt revert to halfback, Cameron McInnes to hooker and Jackson Ford come into the starting team at lock. Trent Merrin (concussion) is out with Tristan Sailor coming on to the bench as a utility back.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: With Angus Crichton and possibly Ryan Matterson out, McInnes now sits in the elite class at back row — he is currently the second highest-averaging fit 2RF behind only the great Jason Taumalolo. Further, McInnes has the best pure base stats (67 per game) of ANY player in the competition. But at only 12 per cent ownership coming into the round, he’ll still sit in borderline POD range by lockout.
Move over Bryce Cartwright and Feleti Mateo, Sangster’s Paradise has a new love interest – Zac Lomax. Last week’s chip-and-chase try sits in the “did that really happen” category and the assist to Ravalawa is in “no way, get f****d” category. KFC SuperCoach-wise, he has second most points of any “proper” CTW behind David Nofoaluma (Isaah Yeo doesn’t count because he should never have got CTW status, blame Rob for that).
RABBITOHS:
Teams comment: Latrell Mitchell’s two week suspension has concluded and he resumes his role at fullback. Alex Johnston makes way for Mitchell moving to the wing and Corey Allan is the player to be dropped. Liam Knight is back, returning on the bench in place of Hame Sele (shoulder) while Patrick Mago comes on to the interchange bench in place of last week’s debutant Jack Johns.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: My POD move on Damien Cook backfired spectacularly with Cameron Smith more-than-doubling his Rabbitoh rival’s score last week. One of the main reasons for picking Cook (apart from being half the ownership) was the improved running game that had netted two tries, two linebreaks and nine tackle busts in the previous fortnight. So I was clearly miffed (read: yelling) when he produced just three runs against Canberra. However, it’s all about the long game with Cook and he should notch some serious totals over the next month against the Dragons, Broncos, Cowboys and Sea Eagles.
Speaking of schedule, another player set to take advantage is the much-maligned Latrell Mitchell. Clearly this trade comes with risk and isn’t for everyone, but I’ve definitely had cheeky glance. He’ll be fired up after a two-week stint in the naughty corner, costs just $457,800 (lowest price of year) and most importantly for this weekend will be pumped for Indigenous Round. One for the adventurous souls and thrill seekers.
WESTS TIGERS
Teams comment: Russell Packer (suspended) is out once again with his starting prop role filled by Oliver Clark. Luke Garner returns from his one-week HIA related absence and this sees Sam McIntyre revert to the interchange. Alex Twal is back and starts at lock in place of Matt Eisenhuth. Last week’s late withdrawal Thomas Mikaele is named on the bench where Shawn Blore has held his spot. Michael Chee Kam (concussion) gets a week off, Josh Reynolds returns but only to the reserves at this stage.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: After sitting in POD range for the entire season so far, this is the week David Nofoaluma finally goes mainstream. He is the second most purchased player and it’s fair to say if you don’t have Nofo, you’ve missed out on serious points. He’s 50 points clear of the next best CTW for total points and 4.3 points clear for average points. With a BE of 32, KFC SuperCoaches should start planning to sell Tommy Talau after making $130,900.
WARRIORS
Teams comment: Changes galore here. Both wingers David Fusitu’a and Ken Maumalo have returned to NZ and this sees Patrick Herbert start on one edge and new loanee George Jennings the other. Karl Lawton has been named to start at hooker with Wayde Egan relegated to the bench. The other loanee Daniel Alvaro joins Egan on the bench in place of Isaiah Papali’i. Chanel Harris-Tavita misses out on selection this week.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: We had our fingers crossed the exodus of four players back to New Zealand would create cheapie opportunities. However, it hasn’t panned out that way with the Warriors’ most recent loan players Daniel Alvaro ($364,100) and George Jennings ($296,900) sitting at awkward prices. Eliesa Katoa rewarded those who stuck strong through the injury by busting out 86 points in 80 minutes, including a try, against one of the NRL’s stingiest defences in the Roosters. With a BE of 20, he’s set up another round of price rises.
FULL TEAMS: Matterson named, Broncos shock
WEEKEND REVIEW: 10 things we learned
COLONEL’S COMP: Flex your footy banter
CASUALTY WARD: Truth behind huge injury toll
BRONCOS
Teams comment: Darius Boyd takes over at fullback with Anthony Milford moving to five-eighth in place of an injured Brodie Croft, Herbie Farnworth shifts in to centre to cover for Boyd and Richie Kennar comes on to the wing. Jack Turpin returns to the squad with last week’s number nine Cory Paix left out of the 17. Issac Luke comes on to the bench having served his suspension where he will be joined by Ethan Bullemor. Brisbane fans will have to wait at least another week for David Fifita’s return.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Xavier Coates was a sell last week but the trade is even more important this week. He lost $27,300 over the weekend and now sits with a break even of 85, so it’s time to cash in.
The rigours of playing huge minutes every week are slowly catching up with Payne Hass, who trained with the rehab group on Monday but is expected to play. His scores are on a steady decline — season average 74.3, five-game average 71.6 and three-game average 67.7. He’s still a beast, just not a captain.
SHARKS
Teams comment: Connor Tracey comes into the starting team in place of Chad Townsend (calf). Josh Dugan returns after being a late out last week and he resumes his role at centre in place of Bryson Goodwin. Briton Nikora has served his suspension and resumes his edge second-row role so Siosifa Talakai heads to the interchange. Toby Rudolf named to start at lock but don’t be surprised if he and Jack Williams swap roles as per last week.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: After a slow start to the year, Shaun Johnson has turned back the clock and now sits with the highest average of any five-eighth and second highest of any halfback. He’ll take on extra responsibility (read: more touches) over the coming weeks with Chad Townsend (calf) out for up to six weeks. Also keep an eye on Townsend’s replacement Connor Tracey as a potential cheapie. The caveat is that Matt Moylan is due back next week and could take Tracey’s halves spot, although Moylan’s just as likely to get injured again or play fullback. Tracey has shown flashes of KFC SuperCoach brilliance in the past, producing an 84 for the Rabbitohs last year before going down injured.
Matt Dufty pulls off a vintage Benji for our KFC Play of the Week ðŸ˜ðŸ˜ðŸ˜ pic.twitter.com/qw0iHswpF5
— SuperCoach NRL (@SuperCoachNRL) July 28, 2020
ROOSTERS
Teams comment: The Roosters will be without Boyd Cordner once again with the premiers opting to rest their skipper and give him a chance to recover from lingering concussion symptoms. Sitili Tupouniua wins another start in Cordner’ place. Brett Morris (back) is out, replaced on the wing by Ryan Hall.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: The “Unicorn” has lost his magical powers. After a series of statistical updates in recent weeks, James Tedesco copped some heavy downdates on the weekend to record his lowest score since Round 1. Teddy now has a two-game average of just 65 (shock horror!). Even so, it would take a brave owner to place the orange armband on anyone else this week given Teddy is taking on the Titans. He scored 155 against them the last time they played and averages 80.11 at the SCG.
Angus Crichton sits among the most sold players once again, with uncertainty over Ryan Matterson forcing the hand of many KFC SuperCoaches.
TITANS
Teams comment: Keegan Hipgrave returns from injury replacing Sam Stone on an edge. With the only other change being Sam Lisone coming on to the bench in place of Jai Whitbread.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Nothing doing. Not including Beau Fermor at 24 per cent, who isn’t playing, the next most popular Titan sits at 7.8 per cent ownership.
COWBOYS
Teams comment: Jordan McLean (calf) makes a welcome return in the front row, pushing Francis Molo to the bench. Connelly Lemuelu (cork) returns at centre with Mitch Dunn benched. Reuben Cotter and Ben Hampton drop out. Josh McGuire was found guilty of a dangerous contact charge by the NRL judiciary on Tuesday night and will miss the match.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: After a tough run against three of the toughest teams in the competition for middle forwards to score against (Eels, Roosters, Panthers), Jason Taumalolo returned to form with 79 in pure base against the Sea Eagles. See above analysis on Daejarn Asi.
RAIDERS
Teams comment: John Bateman(shoulder) makes a long-awaited return after a series of false starts. He comes straight into the starting back row with Hudson Young moving to lock and Kai O’Donnell to the reserves. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (finger) is replaced at fullback by Jordan Rapana, with Curtis Scott (infection) returning in Rapana’s centre spot. Mid-season recruit Corey Harawira-Naera comes straight into the 17 in place of Harley Smith-Shields on the bench.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: George Williams has done a brilliant job for KFC SuperCoaches, making $110,000. But it’s time to cash in after he produced his lowest score of the season on the weekend (29) and dropped $18,500. He is the third most sold player this week, with upgrades to Shaun Johnson and Cameron Munster particularly tempting.
That said, trading Williams is hardly urgent given the Raiders have Cowboys, Broncos, Titans and Bulldogs over the next five weeks (although there’s a tough game against the Panthers sandwiched in there).
SEA EAGLES
Teams comment: Dylan Walker has been named in reserves as he aims to overcome an ankle injury. Sean Keppie replaces Jack Gosiewski on the bench.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: The Sea Eagles have been irrelevant for KFC SuperCoach since Tom Trbojevic’s injury. But they finally had something to cheer about on the weekend, notching just their eighth win in 10 games without Turbo. This time it was another classy youngster cracking the ton in Cade Cust.
Injuries have been the issue so far in his career, but he looked a serious prospect in notching a try, try assist, offload, forced drop out, two linebreaks and five tackle busts in seven runs. Alas, the KFC SuperCoach handicapper hasn’t missed and he costs a hefty $447,000 due to some strong showings last season. He’s not an option at that price, especially with Dylan Walker lurking on the extended bench.
PANTHERS
Teams comment: Viliame Kikau (calf) returns in the back row after a late withdrawal last week, with Tyrone May dropping back to the interchange and Matt Burton out. Api Koroisau (elbow) is included in reserves despite the club saying he would be given “a few more weeks”. Boom debutant Charlie Staines is named in the reserves after serving his ban for a COVID-quarantine breach.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Stephen Crichton is the gift that keeps giving. He now sits equal second on the NRL try scorers’ list with 10 (including eight in his last six games). But with a BE of 60, he may have topped out and he’s probably not a top four CTW by the end of the season (a trade to Latrell MAKES money). Watching Crichton is made all the sweeter by the fact Rob Sutherland owns Josh Mansour. Crichton is an A-grade ball hog and could easily have passed to Mansour for approx four of those tries.
Just when we thought David Fifita was coming back...Team List Tuesday throws a curveball 😅 Here are this week's winners and losers!@TomSangsterSC pic.twitter.com/5d2EmcJ0Z3
— SuperCoach NRL (@SuperCoachNRL) July 28, 2020
BULLDOGS
Teams comment: Mid-season recruit Tim Lafai has been parachuted straight into the starting centre role of Kerrod Holland, who drops to reserves. Brandon Wakeham and Renouf To’omaga drop off the bench, replaced by Jack Cogger and Sauaso Sue.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Jake Averillo keeps producing for 9.2 per cent. After some frustrating weeks through injury and suspension, he returned with a bang last week with 58 — and it could have been a whole lot better if he didn’t drop one over the line.
EELS
Teams comment: Ryan Matterson (concussion) has been named despite a heavy head knock last week. Kane Evans (calf) and Oregon Kaufusi (broken hand) return on the bench in place of Brad Takairangi and Stefano Utoikamanu. Popular cheapie Andrew Davey has retained a bench spot after two impressive games.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Matto watch! Keep an eye on late mail for the definitive verdict, hopefully well ahead of Sunday. Blake Ferguson keeps jumping off the screen at me at $336,000. Here’s a crazy stat: Fergo’s pure base of 33 is exactly the same as Nofo’s. Obviously that changes a fair bit when we add base attack (esp tackle busts) but it goes to show Fergo still has a great workrate, he’s just scored no tries this year (literally NOOOOO tries).
STORM
Teams comment: Brenko Lee (hand) is replaced in the centres by Marion Seve. Paul Momirovski (finger) is out for 12 weeks, replaced by Tom Eisenhuth on the bench. Jesse Bromwich (knee) has been included on the extended bench and could return.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Cameron Munster is the fifth most purchased player this week. He’s been named despite a concussion last round and is in a 50-50 battle with Shaun Johnson to end the year as the top-averaging five-eighth. Cameron Smith is the most purchased player once again following another ton, his third of the year. Smith has scored the most points of any player this year and has the second highest average behind Teddy.
KNIGHTS
Teams comment: Season-ending injuries to hookers Andrew McCullough (knee) and Connor Watson (Achilles) see Chris Randall score the No. 9 jersey for what will be his second NRL game. Sione Mata’utia (knee) is replaced in the starting back row by Aidan Guerra. Phoenix Crossland and Josh King are the new faces on the bench.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: The huge injury toll last week meant David Klemmer slammed out 80 minutes for 102 points. He’s closing the gap quickly on Payne Haas for most points at prop, now just 41 points behind. Klemmer somehow still sits in relative POD range at 16 per cent ownership and is a great replacement for Matterson/Crichton if you have the right duals.
Chris Randall would be an amazing cheapie option under normal circumstances after scoring 80 on debut and now having a clear run at the Knights’ hooker spot. However, running two guns at hooker is basically essential given the talent in the position. Pass.