KFC SuperCoach NRL: Teams analysis for Round 18

These players are so far ahead in their positions that not owning them will cost any chance of KFC SuperCoach glory.

Tom Sangster analyses the Round 18 NRL teams.

WINNERS

* David Fifita - Named for the Titans after serving his one-match ban over Origin. Fifita is the most purchased player this week and a must for the run home after producing the highest average of any 2RF, 17.8 points clear of the next best (counting Isaiah Papali’i as an FRF). 

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* Isaiah Papali’i - Speaking of the Parramatta revelation, he has recovered from a concussion sustained before the bye and been named for the Eels. Like Fifita, Papali’i is a must for the run home after averaging 18.2 points more than the next best FRF. Fifth most purchased player this week.

* Payne Haas - Second most popular player this week with KFC SuperCoaches clearly tempted by the $492,300 price tag, a $176,300 discount on his starting price. Haas has been named to back up from Origin and appeared to step up last match in the absence of Tevita Pangai Jnr, who is unlikely to play again for the Broncos. However, as an owner from the start of the season and having ridden the 11 minute drop in game time and 11 point fall in average, Sangster’s Paradise urge KFC SuperCoaches not to expect miracles.

David Fifita is a must-have for those who don’t own him. Picture: NRL Images

* Nicho Hynes - Has earned a stay of execution with Ryan Papenhuzen missing selection as the Storm take a conservative approach to his return from a serious concussion. Hynes has averaged 107 since taking the fullback spot, which is exactly his break even this week, meaning his price should stay steady. Put simply, keep Hynes in your side as long as you can to benefit from his massive points. But sell as soon as Papenhuyzen returns and cash in that $443,000 profit. For example, on this week’s numbers, selling to Reuben Garrick only costs $90,000, selling to Alex Johnston MAKES approx $50,000 and selling to Valentine Holmes would reap a MASSIVE PROFIT of $225,000.  

* Brandon Smith - Named at hooker again for the Storm with Harry Grant given another week to rest his dicky hammy, meaning at least one more round of massive scores for Brandon. Smith has been the best hooker in KFC SuperCoach over the last six weeks, averaging 90 over the span. Of course, it’s no coincidence that Grant has been injured for much of this time. For reference, Smith averages a very commendable 67 with Grant in the side, but that pales in comparison to his average of 90 over the last six weeks when Grant has largely been on the sideline.

* Tom Trbojevic, James Tedesco, Angus Crichton, Brian To’o, Payne Haas, Cameron Munster - All popular KFC SuperCoach players, all named to back up from Origin. But keep an eye on late mail as resting will be rife. Turbo (two-day back-up), Teddy, Crichton and Munster (three-day back-up) are of particular concern.

LOSERS

* Tohu Harris - On the loser’s list for now but could well be on the winner’s list come game day. Harris has been named on the extended bench and is seemingly a chance to come into the Warriors’ side, presumably with the assistance of a needle after originally being ruled out for a month. The fact he’s even in the discussion for a spot is great news for the near 46,000 who held, but a blow to the 10,000 or so who sold last week. 

* Joseph Suaalii Sio Siua Taukeiaho - Mystery at the Roosters with both these popular KFC SuperCoach players missing the squad altogether. No word yet as to why they missed out, or if they are even in the 30-man squad heading up to Queensland. 

* Bailey Simonsson, Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai - Remain on the injury list. Realistically all should have been sold already, but plenty of KFC SuperCoaches are only just getting around to it now with these players making up four of the top five most sold players this week.

Unfortunately due to Origin shifts, I can’t do a full analysis of each team this week. But here are a few tid-bits to keep the juices flowing.

POD WATCH

* Mo Fotuaika - David Fifita’s dominance at the Titans tends to hide the great work of Mo Fotuaika, who is a sneaky POD shout. His 74.4 five-game average is second only to Isaiah Papali’i at FRF, yet he’s only owned by 2.6 per cent.

* Josh Papalii - The Canberra enforcer has the second best three-game average of any prop with 77.3, yet is owned by under 10 per cent. Always finishes strong. 

* Cameron Munster - 2021 hasn’t quite worked out for Munster with a number of judiciary concerns and injuries hampering his season. Even so, he’s still managed to average 70 and as a key player in the best attack in the NRL, he’s sure to rack up some big scores. Only owned by 16 per cent, which is POD level for a player of his pedigree. A five-eighth combo of Cody Walker into Munster looks very tempting for the run home. 

* Kalyn Ponga - The Pong is averaging 88 (third highest of any fullback) yet is owned by only two per cent due to an injury-interrupted season. He’s a risk without the goalkicking, but jump on as soon as there’s any sign he’ll win the duties from recruit Jake Clifford. 

RELUCTANT SELL 

Clint Gutherson’s ownership has plummeted in recent weeks. Selling is hardly ideal given he’s scored the most points at fullback by a massive 124 points, but equally KFC SuperCoaches must do anything possible to get Tommy Turbo in.

TOLD YOU SO

Hopefully you listened to my advice last week on Jason Saab, particularly the average of just 23 when Turbo’s not in the side. Despite the warnings, he ended last round as the most purchased player and promptly produced just 12 points.  

LOOP IS BACK ON 

The return of Josh Schuster (calf) sees Ben Trbojevic drop out of the squad. This means 23 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches can go back to using the VC loophole without the threat of a Burbo shocker (he’s averaged just nine points this year).

SUSPEND THE HUNT FOR NOW

The Dragons are decimated by Origin, injuries and Covid breaches. However, KFC SuperCoach is relatively unaffected with Jack Bird their most popular player at 13 per cent ownership. I had my eye on Ben Hunt as a POD given he’s produced the third highest average of any hooker, but let’s wait at least a week to see how the Dragons handle this latest drama.

MY SEASON-DEFINING BLUNDER

Xavier Savage v Taane Milne. It was close to a 50-50 call last week with 5,000 going with Savage and 4,300 opting for Milne. Alas, those who selected Savage like myself came out massively behind with the Canberra youngster struggling to 25 and Milne busting out a three-try 131. Milne saw a one-week rise of $111,000 with another $150,000 or so expected over the next fortnight.

NUFF SAID

Perennial nuffs Jarred Anderson and Kayleb Milne are popular this week. Both have handy dual positioning and both are no chance of playing this season. 

FUTURE PURCHASE

Valentine Holmes is in a mini form slump over Origin, averaging 47.7 in the last three weeks. He is therefore predicted to drop almost to the $500K mark in the next fortnight, when he’ll make a perfect replacement for Nicho Hynes. What’s more, the trade will create almost $300,000 to spend elsewhere. 

BUYER’S REMORSE

Daniel Tupou scored 50 last week in pure base, including 32 points in runs over 8m. But is he any chance of getting the ball outside of Drew Hutchison, who is a ball-hog of Blake Austin proportions.