KFC SuperCoach NRL: Rob Sutherland’s team revealed
Team List Tuesday left Rob Sutherland dirty with a dozen of his former KFC SuperCoach NRL squad and he has now settled on the team he will take into round one 2020.
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It’s done, it’s finished – I swear I’m not going to hit the trade button again until the end of the round – or at least I will try very very hard not too.
It feels passing strange to not have a premium hooker for the first time I can remember in my long history of playing the game, but I have pulled off some Nick Politis quality cap shuffling to bring the great James Tedesco into my squad and that feels bloody good.
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HOOKER
UPDATED: Damien Cook ($705,500) to Appi Koroisau ($338,800)
Barring injury or contracting Covid 19, Damien Cook will finish the season as the highest scoring hooker. And yet I’m booting him from the Beasts. Crazy? Yes. But sometimes you have to risk it to get the biscuit and that’s what I’m doing here. Koroisau has flirted with ‘keeper’ status in the past averaging 58PPG in 2017 and 56PPG in 2018. That was when playing under Trent Barrett at the Sea Eagles – the same Trent Barrett who is now an assistant coach at the Panthers. Add to that the fact that Penrith coach Ivan Cleary has confirmed he will be giving Koroisau considerably more minutes – and has selected a round one bench devoid of clear options to relieve Api – and I’m counting on Koroisau to produce around 55PPG over the first 8-10 weeks. That should see the best part of a $200K price increase and I’ll make up the shortfall between his output and Cook’s with the money I save.
Blayke Brailey HOK ($201,000)
The departure of big brother Jayden (Knights) opens the door for Blayke Brailey to make the job of starting hooker at the Sharks his own. Where Jayden was a defensive workhorse, Brayden brings more attack to the role and he possesses a deft kicking game. A proven eighty-minute hooker, Brailey played the full game in all seven NSW Cup matches last year and also played 80 minutes for the Sharks in round 14 last year. Connor Tracey has been named on the Cronulla bench for round one and he will steal some minutes from Brailey, but even 60MPG will be enough to see some solid, and early, price increases.
FRONT ROW FORWARD
Payne Haas FRF ($728,200)
To put Payne Haas’ season in some perspective the Brisbane giant’s 2019 PPG average of 78.4 was the second-best in the history of any true FRF (beaten only by Andrew Fifita’s 80PPG in 2013) and the 21st best average of any player at any position ever (minimum 10 games). And it was his rookie season! Haas averaged more minutes per game (64 MPG) than any other FRF and despite his huge workload he maintained the seventh best points per minute (1.23PPM) of any FRF (again minimum of 10 games). His asking price puts a big dent in your salary cap to start the season but with a per-game average 12 points better than the next best at his position he’s pretty close to a must-have for mine. The Broncos have named an outside back and reserve hooker on their bench so Haas looks set to play big minutes early and is a lock for captain of the Beasts.
UPDATED: Thomas Mikaele ($309,100), Francis Molo ($298,600), Keaon Koloamatangi ($171,900) to Zane Musgrove ($201,000), Toby Rudolf ($171,900), Jamayne Taunoa-Brown ($171,900)
If the Cook downgrade to Koroisau was a calculated risk, this decision to run with three cheapie front row forwards is crazy time. I am almost okay with running one of them in my starting 17, but should injury strike Payne Haas it means I will have to run two bench forwards and that’s very far from ideal. The move is all about generating enough cash to afford James Tedesco. It could backfire horribly or it could get my season off to a flyer there is no in-between here. I would note having DPP options like Knight and Carrigan at 2RF do give me some options should the experiment go pear shaped...
Musgrove – Named to start on the bench for round one, a fair guide as to what you can expect is to look at the last pre-season game against the Warriors. In that game Musgrove came off the bench and made 90 metres from 10 runs, 16 tackles and threw an offload for 33 points.
Rudolf – One of the great stories of perseverance being rewarded, Rudolf was signed by the Sharks from the QRL Cup in 2018 and then tore his ACL the very next day. Forced to spend much of 2019 in rehab, Rudolf then came out and dominated for Newtown over the close of the season. Super impressive in the final trial with a try, 11 runs for 89 metres, seven tackle busts and 28 tackles (with none missed), Rudolf has the workrate required to be a success in KFC SuperCoach NRL. Named on the bench for round one, solid minutes are on offer with just one other middle forward joining him riding the pine.
Taunoa-Brown – The former Storm player was only elevated to the Warriors’ top-30 two weeks ago and now he has been named on the bench for round one. There are plenty of minutes on offer in the middle for the Warriors following injuries to Bunty Afoa, Agnatius Passi and Jackson Frei and the off-season departure of Sam Lisone. JTB played big minutes for the Indigenous All-Stars (12 runs, 88 metres, a TB and offload and 28 tackles for 45 points) and then came off the bench in the final trial of the season again impressing with his workrate (seven runs for 58 metres and 26 tackles for 37 points).
SECOND ROW FORWARD
Jason Taumalolo 2RF ($723,400)
Taumalolo averaged 78PPG in 64MPG in 2019 and with a beastly base of 56PPG and big points in offloads, tackle busts and linebreaks he exceeded 60PPG in 83% of games played. In Taumalolo also provides handy cover for the first bye of the season – something my squad is sorely lacking but I’ll cross that bridge when I come to it.
David Fifita 2RF ($501,900)
From round 18 onwards Fifita became an 80-minute player (82 thanks to extra-time in round 24) and in that eight-game span he busted out two tons and averaged 77PPG (42PPG in base and 14.5PPG in tackle busts!). Thanks to his reduced minutes off the bench over the first half of 2019, Fifita will be available for a significant discount on his 80-minute average – a role he looks sure to cover in 2020.
Victor Radley 2RF/HOK ($481, 300)
I’m a huge fan of Victor The Inflictor and think this will be his breakout SuperCoach year. Radley was forced to cover the hooker position for large parts of 2019 but with veteran Jake Friend fully fit and backup Sam Verrills banging down the selection door, Radley is now free to play his best position of lock. A guide of what we can expect in 2020 should this occur can be gleaned from looking at Radley’s scores over the span of round 18-24 last year. In those seven games, Radley averaged 65PPG in 60MPG. If Radley can reproduce that output then he will begin 2020 priced at a big discount. Radley also provides handy coverage of the hooker position and I can slide him up there via DPP should injury strike Api Koroisau.
Liam Knight FRF ($437,300)
I think Knight is one of the best young middle forwards in the game and the news that the Rabbitohs will be moving Cam Murray from lock to an edge and giving Knight a chance to play extended minutes wearing the number 13 jersey makes this mid-ranger a near must for mine. In the seven games he started in 2019, Knight averaged 54.4PPG, 45PPG of which came in base and a tick under 7PPG in offloads/tackle busts. I’m expecting Knight to average 55-60PPG to open the season and he also provides handy coverage for the opening round bye.
UPDATED: Billy Magoulias 2RF ($221,700) out Patrick Carrigan FRF/2RF ($326,300) in
Big Billy failed to make the Cronulla team for round one, and Pat Carrigan has been named to start at lock for the Broncos so this trade was an easy one. Named to start at lock and as captain of the Broncos in the final trial, Carrigan made 20 runs for a game high 165 metres with seven tackle breaks an offload and 36 tackles (missing two). With dual-position eligibility, a starting role locked in until at least round three due to Joe Ofahengaue’s suspension and priced at just $326,300 there is a lot to like about Carrigan. It’s a pretty small sample size but in the six games of 40+ minutes that Carrigan played in 2019 he averaged 48.3PPG with a season best of 70 points in 60 minutes (68 of which came in base).
UPDATED: Haumole Olakau’atu 2RF ($171,900) out Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 2RF ($217,500)
While Olakau’atu has been named on the bench for Manly and is an enticing price, I think his job security is questionable as Manly’s injured middle-forwards return from injury faster than expected. Big Tino is a gun and I think this is the year he lifts his 23PPG average from 2019 to 35 in 2020. That’s not a huge jump but it’s enough to make some decent coin and provide a stepping stone to a keeper.
HALFBACK
Mitchell Moses HFB ($579,300)
After a down year in 2018, the Parramatta playmaker bounced back in superb form, leading the competition in try assists in 2019 with 25 and as the Eels improved, Moses also saw more goal kicking opportunities. Parramatta also have one of the best schedules in the NRL, including a great start to the season facing bottom eight teams from 2019 in the first six weeks, as well as covering the round 12 bye.
UPDATED: George Williams HFB|5/8 ($333,800) out – Nathan Cleary HFB ($631,500)
Here is where I have invested a big chunk of the money I saved by swapping Cook to Koroisau. Williams is cheap if he replicates his Super League form, but he has been patchy in the pre-season as he struggles to gel with his teammates. Cleary owns the Panthers this year and will be in the thick of all their attacking play. Penrith do have a tough draw to start the season but by picking him now I can just save the trade I would need to spend to get him in later and it does look pretty sweet to have the two gun halves stacked in their ahead of round one.
FIVE-EIGHTH
UPDATE: Anthony Milford FLB|5/8 ($476,000) out – Kyle Flanagan 5/8|HFB ($461,200) in
I always felt uncomfortable with Anthony Milford in my squad seeing as how I had put ‘The Milf’ on my never again list a number of times and this trade feels much better. Flanagan has big shoes to fill, as he looks to replace Cooper Cronk at the reigning premiers. If you remove a game where he played 26 minutes of the bench for the Sharks, his 2019 average jumps up to 54.9 which may not be elite but is pretty darn good. No doubt the Roosters are Luke Keary’s team in 2020, but Flanagan called for and received plenty of ball in the World Club Challenge and with two try assists (with LBA) he scored 48 points a total which would have been 12 points better if two kicks for goal had just hit the posts an inch to one side and not the other.
Jerome Luai HFB|5/8 ($257,400)
I have flip-flopped on Luai all pre-season and at the moment I’m flipping him in. Maloney’s exit leaves a huge hole at the Panthers and Jarome Luai has been nominated by Penrith coach Ivan Cleary as the man to get first shot at making the No. 6 jersey his own. Young Matt Burton impressed in the pre-season too but was named outside the starting 17 in a show of support for Luai from coach Ivan Cleary and that was enough for me to decide to take a chance on the young playmaker too.
CENTRE/WING
UPDATE: James Roberts CTW ($392,700) out Kotoni Staggs CTW ($447,400) in
Jimmy The Jet sure looks sleek but Staggs has balled out this pre-season. Last year was a season of two halves for Staggs with the Bronco averaging just 29.2 PPG from Rd 1-11 and then 62.8 PPG across the 13 games he played after the round 12 bye. After the bye Staggs averaged 29.5PPG in base stats and a further 10PPG in offloads plus tackle busts. That’s a very nice starting point for a centre to which it looks like you can count on some goalkicking stats with Jamayne Isaako only named on the bench for round one.
UPDATE: Adam Doueihi CTW/FLB ($343,100) out Kallum Watkins CTW ($271,800) in
Doueihi has been named to start at centre for the Tigers and will probably still kick goals but I need to save cash so have swerved towards former England international Watkins. The veteran of more than 250 games for Leeds was underwhelming in 2019 but he has hit the gym in the off-season and with a fellow Englishman coaching the side I’m hoping he rediscovers some of his Super League form. A couple of early tries please sir!
UPDATE: Xavier Coates CTW ($203,500) out Braden Wiliame CTW ($201,000) in
Coates failed to make the Broncos staring team for round one and cheapie Wiliame did – that’s all I needed to make this trade.
Gehamat Shibasaki CTW ($286,400)
I’m not crazy about Shibasaki but he does get in a little cheap when compared to his output at the Broncos last year. Despite being assessed as having played 11 games, (he was selected in 12 but did not see the pitch in one and played a combined 24 minutes in the other two) so while priced at an average of 30.8PPG his true output was 37.7. With cheap CTW scarce on the ground, that plus the fact Shibasaki was named to start round one is enough to bring him in.
Zac Lomax CTW/FLB ($324,600)
After being shuffled between the bench, wing, centres and fullback last year, Lomax got two bits of good news in the off-season. Firstly Lomax signed the longest deal in St George Illawarra history and then coach Paul McGregor confirmed he would give Lomax the first crack at securing the fullback job at the club. A career 81% goalkicker in the NRL (albeit from a small sample size of 32 attempts), Lomax is also the man most likely to get the kicking tee to start 2020. All that for under $325K? Shut up and take my money.
Kurt Mann CTW/FLB ($287,100)
I’m far from sold on this pick but Mann is reportedly locked in for a simplified starting role in the halves for the Knights so he’s the man (as it were) for now. Mann is a reliable defender (for a half) and has a decent running game. I’m not expecting huge things but he could be a solid moneymaker who provides opening bye round coverage (during which he’s a good chance to play fullback with Kalyn Ponga absent due to Origin commitments).
Bradman Best ($240,700)
I have retained Best despite an injury set to keep him out of the game until round 4/5. He is not bottom-dollar but I’ll take the chance he is named to start when fit.
FULLBACK
UPDATE: Tom Trbojevic FLB ($714,800) out, James Tedesco FLB ($781,500) in
I’m pretty excited about this trade because, just quietly, I’m a bit of a fan of the bearded flash. The Sydney Roosters superstar had a phenomenal year in 2019 averaging 84PPG, busting out five triple figure scores (and three 90s) and averaging a lazy 105PPG over the final eight games of the regular season. I don’t know if Teddy can maintain that output to start 2020 but he sure looked fit and keen as mustard in the World Club Challenge so I’m prepared to say he could. Disclosure – I am flirting with downgrading Teddy to Ponga which allows me to upgrade Musgrove to Hess via Knight’s DPP. It’s the one decision point I have left in the game and I am oscillating wildly.
Ryan Papenhuyzen ($508,200)
The Storm have signalled that Ryan Papenhuyzen’s peripatetic days are over and that in 2020 the livewire speedster will have a permanent home as Melbourne’s starting fullback — and about time too says many a SuperCoach. In 2019, Papenhuyzen started five games at fullback for scores of 87, 71, 123, 98 and 85 and an average of 92.8. Now, even the most optimistic owner is not going to expect that level of output to continue, but even a 30 per cent decline would still result in a 60+ average over the season and at just a tick over $500K I’m all in.
PPG: Points Per Game
MPG: Minutes Per Game
PPM: Points Per Minute – a useful indication of workrate particularly relevant to forwards (as most backs play the full 80 minutes) as a player with a good PPM who is set to see an increase in MPG could see a big increase in PPG.
Base Points: Base points are those earned in hit-ups plus tackles (some statisticians subtract points lost for missed tackles when calculating this). They are valued by SuperCoaches as it is considered a reliable guide to future output unlike attacking stats which except for the truly exceptional are far less reliable.
BPPM: Base Points Per Minute
POD: Point Of Difference
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