KFC SuperCoach NRL Plus: What we learned from round 1
Numbers may never lie, but sometimes they make more sense when you tease out the story behind them - that’s what Rob Sutherland does here.
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Our resident KFC SuperCoach NRL fashionista Rob Sutherland runs you through the story behind the numbers that dominated the opening round of the 2021 NRL season.
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CAPTAINCY MATTERS BUT IT’S NOT EVERYTHING
This may go without saying, but I’m pedantic, so I’ll say it anyway – getting the right captain is a big advantage. Those players who captained Ryan Papenhuyzen in the opening game of the round would have been feeling pretty chuffed about doubling his 124 points – until James Tedesco came out and scored 162 against the Sea Eagles on Saturday.
If you like me are somewhat numerically challenged you’re sitting there trying to carry the six so I’ll do the maths for you – captain Paps equalled 248 points, captain Teddy 324. That’s a 76 point gap right there. Which seems like a lot, but those of you who had BOTH Paps and Teddy but captained Paps can halve that deficit. Don’t believe me? The numbers don’t lie:
(C) Paps 248 + Teddy 162 = 410
Paps 124 + (C) Teddy 324 = 448
So captaincy matters, but getting your selections right matters more. Of the other premium fullback options, the Latrell Mitchell (117 points) owners lost some points to the Teddy/Paps gang but not too much. Those that went for Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (38 points) Clint Gutherson (75 points) and or AJ Brimson (64 points) were playing catch up at every other position.
This week there are just two captaincy options on most of our minds with Tedesco (30.4%) and Nathan Cleary (24.9%) the only two players in double figures. It’s hard to argue against either pick with both players having positive matchups against teams who conceded big points in round one.
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DO YOU NEED MEAD?
If I answered one question about David Mead in Tuesday’s pre-TLT Q&A I must have answered 50, and so it’s no shock to see the Brisbane winger the most purchased player of the round. No shock, but perhaps an insight to my lack of sway with SuperCoaches, because in every answer I cautioned against rushing in to buying Mead. The Broncos veteran scored 77 points in round one and so I can see why people are rushing in. But, hear me out. The headline score of 77 points is great, the underlying base of 30+ with 15 runs is very very good. So why the caution? Because, 15 runs is an outlier to what Mead produced all through his career. Yes that was back when the game was slower, but it also includes a fair stint at fullback back in the day and even then Mead never ran that often. The five tackle busts? Close to triple Mead’s history, the two linebreaks? between four to six times more prolific than his past season averages. And as to the money that Mead ‘must’ make after such a bumper opening round score? Let’s get to that now.
MONEY ISN’T MADE BY A BIG ROUND 1 SCORE
KFC SuperCoach NRL prices do not move until a player has had three games and as a result big round one scores very quickly drop out of the rolling average. Let’s illustrate this by showing how the prices of some CTW who had good opening round scores in 2020 went in the weeks following.
Phillip Sami: Opening price $415K
Rd 1 score: 74 ($415K); Rd 2 score: 19 points ($415K); Rd 3 score: 30 pts ($404K); Rd 4 score: 64 points (383K); Rd 5 score: 64 pts (398K).
Jesse Arthar: Opening price $316K
Rd 1 score: 62 (316K), Rd 2 score: 14 pts ($316K), Rd 3 score: 10 pts ($302K), Rd 4 score: 19 pts ($255K)
Both players had hot scores to start the season, both became trade targets, and both lost money. Outside of the absolute elite, CTW scores fluctuate like no other position and a substandard round 2/3 score will not just undue all the work of a round one boomer, but will actually do more damage as those scores stay in a player’s rolling average used for price calculation for longer.
WHAT WILL YOU LOSE WITH LOLO?
When the news broke in the pre-season that new North Queensland coach Todd Payten planned on using Jason Taumalolo for fewer minutes, and in more of an edge running role red flags were raised about what this could mean for ‘Lolo’s’ SuperCoach output. Those flags were well and truly validated when Taumalolo scored just 36 points in 50 minutes. The game flow went against Taumalolo as the Cowboys were defending for large parts of his time on ground and therefore he made just seven runs. But the minutes … they are a big concern. I’ll try to remove the gameplay aberration by using Taumalolo’s 2018-2020 points per minute which comes out to 1.16PPM (a big lift on the 0.72PPM rate he produced in round one). And so what shall we expect if Taumalolo’s minutes per game remain at 50MPG BUT his scoring rate returns to his 2018-20 average? Well 50*1.16 equals 58PPG. That’s a 14 point drop on Taumalolo’s 2020 output and players who averaged 58PPG were priced at or around $520K which is $120K less than Taumalolo’s owners forked out to buy him in 2021. That’s a hefty haircut and I think owners are right to be either selling this week or planning to next.
WHEN ROUND ONE MINUTES FLATTER TO DECEIVE
Sometimes, when, as with Taumalolo above, the plan to change a player’s role has been flagged in advance, then I feel comfortable making forecasts based on round one output. Sometimes you need to treat them with caution. An example of this relates to the monster minutes played by David Klemmer at the Newcastle Knights.
Was remarkable given the rules have sped up the game with fewer stoppages. Knights were forced to use up some first half interchanges so coach asked him to stick it out for a lot longer than normal. Reckon 55-60 will pull Klem up most weeks. https://t.co/NDNg9rfMvb
— Barry Toohey (@BarryToohey) March 16, 2021
Klemmer’s fellow FRF starter Daniel Saifiti was not asked for such a big stint, but he did play 60 minutes which feels like five more than he might play in a normal game. In short, where minutes look too good to be true, they often are so delve into the story behind the stat.
THE UNSUSTAINABLE OUTPUT
Five players finished round 1 with a PPM exceeding 2.0 and 16 exceeded 1.5PPM. None of them will maintain that level of scoring. For reference over the course of 2020, just two players (Kane Evans, 14 games, 29MPG, 1.71PPM and Nelson Asofa-Solomona, 17 games, 36MPG, 1.5PPM) playing a minimum of 10 games managed to score at a rate better than 1.5PPM. This is why Joseph Tapine (100 points at 2.38PPM) and Daniel Saifiti (128 points at 2.13PPM) are being treated with caution as trade-in targets despite such superb opening round scores. Tapine is a member of a stacked pack, Saifiti’s minutes were inflated due to injury issues at the Knights. I quite like Saifiti as a target, and won’t try to talk you out of him, but make the trade with your eyes open to the near-certainty that his PPM will drop, his minutes too and scores around 50-60 points lower than his Rd 1 output will be the norm.
CAN WE TALK TRUSTING MILFORD?
Brisbane playmaker Anthony Milford is not just on my never again list, his name has been underlined three times. And yet, and yet, he scored 69 points in round one against a team, the Eels, who have been pretty tough to score on in recent times. The most tempting, almost teasing, part of Milford’s score was the broad range of stats which he put up. There were two try assists, a couple of offloads (one successful), two linebreak assists and even a linebreak. That’s near-elite output for a cheapie price and if it weren’t for me being burned so many times in the past I would be talking him up. As it is, I think even the most ardent fan – yes even Wilfred ‘Catfish’ Zee – should think hard before bringing Milford in to their team. And by ‘hard’ I mean wait 5-6 rounds. At least.
WET, DRY – DOES IT MATTER?
There was just the one wet game in round one – and it was a very wet one with the rain pelting down at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium when the Dragons met the Sharks in Sydney on Sunday. And yet, the two teams combined for 50 points with eight tries between them. With all due respect to these two teams neither boast the hottest attacks in the game, but to be fair they were also far from the worst defensive teams in 2020. So what can we draw from this statistic, well not too much – it is after all a very small sample size – but, I’m not going to let the wet weather forecast in Sydney this weekend put me off selecting the likes of James Tedesco, Nathan Cleary, Cody Walker or Latrell Mitchell.
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