KFC SuperCoach NRL Cheapie Bible: The Round 3 bargains you need
It’s your last chance to buy many of the KFC SuperCoach NRL cheapies before their prices rise so don’t miss Trent Copeland’s words of wisdom.
SuperCoach
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperCoach. Followed categories will be added to My News.
It’s here!
Price changes start this week, based on the three-game rolling average as per usual, and if you’re not on board with the best money-making cheapies you’ll be miles behind your competition in attaining the best ‘fallen’ guns as quickly as possible.
By definition a ‘Cheapie’ will be referenced when under $300,000 and actually relevant for KFC SuperCoach purposes. Key word being relevant.
Here we go!
Watch The 2021 NRL Telstra Premiership Live & On-Demand with No Ad-Breaks During Play. New to Kayo? Try 14-Days Free Now >
David Mead CTW | FLB (Broncos) $230,300 – 22 points
This is why you do not jump the gun on CTW cheapies. Just as quick as Mead scored 77 points, he scores 22 points against the Titans and despite a -19 BE looking sexy this week against the Bulldogs the reality is a (KFC SuperCoach Plus) predicted BE of 25 next week with matchups against the Storm, Rabbitohs and Panthers the following three weeks. Mead’s work rate in round one was an outlier for his career, and given we saw a regression to the mean in that sense coupled with the aforementioned draw it becomes a dangerous prospect. Particularly if you’re selling another cheapie CTW like Saab sideways.
VERDICT: AVOID – Personally, unless it’s to financially facilitate a second trade to a gun, then Mead is a pass given the Broncos’ tough schedule and sub par performances.
Daine Laurie CTW | FLB (Wests Tigers) $223,300 – 73 points
Lock. Him. In. as the Cheapie of the Year, as predicted back in February. The Tigers fullback is legit. 73 points without any tries or try assists in a thrashing at the hands of the Roosters is incredible. 18 points in tackle busts to go with three line breaks and 24 points in runs says it all as the baseline seems to be around the 40PPG mark. With a -44 BE this weekend against the Knights, KFC SuperCoach Plus predicts a $62,000 price rise even with a score of 40. I think that may end up much more in the realm of $80,000+.
VERDICT: BUY – GUN.
Jordan Riki 2RF (Broncos) $277,500 – 81 points
“I’m not worried” was the Cheapie Bible call after 40 points in 80 minutes in round one, as things just didn’t break right for Riki. Well, I hope you kept the faith in your starting 17’s as Riki was ELECTRIC against the Titans. 81 points in 80 minutes without a try or try assist is nice going for the Crichton’s and Matterson’s of the world, let alone a rookie. 34 tackles, impressively 12 points in tackle busts, a line break and a huge 30 points in hitups leaves Riki with a -26 BE heading into a matchup with the Bulldogs.
VERDICT: BUY – Must have is a hugely overused term in fantasy sports, but Riki is just that.
Connor Watson HOK | 5/8 (Knights) $288,600 – 61 points
Another solid performance from Watson, keeping up his fantastic career PPM in scoring 61 points in 51 minutes, this time almost entirely in base stats (35 tackles and 14 points in runs). If scores between 50-65 points are the baseline, then we are looking at a $400,000 player by round six or seven. Given the Knights have matchups against the Tigers, Dragons, Titans and Sharks the next four rounds I’d say there’s a very good chance that happens (health permitting!).
VERDICT: BUY/HOLD – Watson is doing a fantastic job, matching it with many $450k starting 17 players over the opening two rounds. Dual position helps in trades too!
Jacob Liddle HOK (Wests Tigers) $247,200 – 66 points
Well, two tries in two games is some start to the season! Particularly against the Roosters in a drubbing. But, and this is a significant but, the bad news is Moses Mbye’s move to the bench meant Liddle went from the full 80 minutes down to just 50 minutes in round two. So, likely at just the 50 minutes but possessing a KFC SuperCoach-leading -52 BE some 62% of teams have a decision to make. Do you jump on with an expected downturn in minutes? Taking out the try/line break combo which can’t be relied upon every week, I’d say a reasonable expectation given Liddle’s historical PPM would be 40-45PPG in 50-ish minutes. If you make your call based off that, you won’t be disappointed. The other consideration is Jake Simpkin, who scored two first half tries in the NSW Cup on the weekend. Hmm …
VERDICT: BUY/HOLD – I’d be sitting Liddle outside your 17 this week, though.
Tesi Niu FLB | CTW (Broncos) $232,500 – 92 points
I said last week that Niu would 100% be in my starting 17 with a matchup against the Titans, and despite David Fifita making him look like a witches hat in defence, 92 points with a try and try assist along with so many eye catching moments with ball in hand was a roaring success. Up against the lowly Bulldogs this weekend at Suncorp Stadium, Niu is one of the best Cheapie prospects for both points and price rises. Giddy up.
VERDICT: BUY – Could reach $400k in as little as two weeks! There are some tough matchups on the horizon but hopefully the damage has been done by then.
Ryan James FRF | 2RF (Raiders) $236,700 – 64 points
This is heyday Ryan James! 69 points in 41 minutes in round one, followed up by 64 points in 39 minutes against the Sharks on Sunday. The second game was the most impressive with 25 tackles, 10 points in tackle busts, a line break and 20 points in hitups. Genuinely, James looks essential to any future Raiders success particularly when Josh Papalii’i is on the bench. Matchups against the Warriors and Titans the next two weeks should prove fruitful for James, and hopefully KFC SuperCoaches financially too.
VERDICT: BUY – Anyone needing a FRF or 2RF cheapie, look no further.
Charlie Staines CTW | FLB (Panthers) $297,700 – 10 points
An 18 point stinker in round one, followed by 10 points in a 28-0 thrashing of the Bulldogs (admittedly in the pouring rain) is about as far away from the 158 points on debut as we could possibly have imagined. Would you believe that the man over 50% of teams locked in as one of the Cheapies of the year now has an average of 14PPG and enters a matchup with the Melbourne Storm this Thursday night with a BE of 74! As it stands, Staines is one of the most traded out players this week. I can see why given the lack of work rate and obviously attacking stats, but let me stress that without an incredible alternative presenting itself Staines possesses the most upside of just about any of the cheapies available at his price, even if he were to drop $40-$60k in the next week or so.
VERDICT: HOLD – Yes, there will come a time (if he doesn’t get dropped that is!) that Staines will score a truckload of points and bring in that money we all desperately wanted.
Josh Schuster 5/8 (Sea Eagles) $203,100 – 46 points
STARTING ON AN EDGE! Yes, you heard correctly. Josh Schuster, one of my pre-season hottest prospects in the Cheapie Bible after his stellar debut in the NRL last season (in the halves) made his season debut in the quagmire against the Rabbitohs, replacing Andrew Davey – who tragically hurt his knee just four minutes in – off the bench. 46 points in the 76 minutes isn’t an amazing PPM obviously, but there were really no opportunities to show his attacking flair given the conditions. This weekend, named to start and likely playing the full 80 minutes against the Dragons in what is expected to be sunny conditions I’m predicting 60+ points and a REAL buy prospect next week given the lengthy Sironen, Olakau’tua and Davey injuries.
VERDICT: WATCHLIST – Almost certainly Cheapie of the week in round four.
Bailey Simonsson CTW | FLB (Raiders) $205,000 – 28 points
A down week for Simonsson with just the 28 points, but given the horrendous conditions you can forgive outside backs that didn’t score well this week! Juicy matchups against the Warriors and Titans over the coming two weeks along with a BE of just 2 means there is plenty of money to be made, and in my opinion plenty of points for your starting 17.
VERDICT: BUY/HOLD.
Spencer Leniu FRF (Panthers) $218,500 – 37 points
Leniu’s minutes came down from 37 in week one to a disappointing 29 in round two, and as a result we saw just the 37 points. The game was a blowout from very early on, and it looked to the naked eye like coach Cleary was attempting to get Moses Leota out of his slumber with some extra minutes. The PPM was still in the elite category at 1.3 as always so personally, I’m not concerned, and I think we see a return to 35+ minutes this week against the Storm.
VERDICT: BUY – Will end up being one of this season’s best slow-burning money makers.
Daniel Alvaro FRF (Dragons) $255,800
Here’s one from left field! Alvaro was exceptional for the Dragons last weekend, scoring 74 points in 48 minutes with over 50 of those in pure base stats! KFC SuperCoach aficionados will recall back in 2018 for the Eels, Alvaro was UNREAL with a 1.2PPM averaging 55PPG that season so he is definitely capable of sustaining this. But, my issue lies in the rotation. In round one we saw Lawrie, Faamausili and Alvaro play minimal minutes with Fuimaono, Vaughan and Merrin getting extra. In round two it was Kerr who scored an early try, and Alvaro with an early line break and huge metres so it was those two that saw huge minutes, with Vaughan notably playing just 37 minutes and Fuimaono down to 47 from 60. This has a real ‘hot hand’ (to use an NFL running back term) approach to it for mine, which spells danger.
VERDICT: AVOID – There’s absolutely money to be made here, but I much prefer the likes of James and Leniu for solidified roles and less competition.
Sean O’Sullivan HFB (Warriors) $231,200
Need an emergency Nathan Cleary backup after starting with Sam Walker? Well, here’s your guy. Chanel Harris-Tevita has been ruled out with injury for what the Warriors are expecting to be the best part of three months, and O’Sullivan has been named to start in the halfback jersey this week. Things haven’t quite broken right for O’Sullivan as yet in his career, but lets not forget this guy was dubbed the long term Mitchell Pearce replacement at halfback for the Roosters at one point. Back in 2019, O’Sullivan averaged 51.7PPG in four games as a starting halfback – albeit in a much better team.
VERDICT: WATCHLIST – Ideally you wait, but if Cleary is ruled out on Thursday night, I can see why some would jump on.
Tyrell Fuimaono 2RF (Dragons) $259,500 – 39 points
As mentioned above, Fui came back to earth after his 56 points in 60 minutes as the Dragons’ starting lock in round one to score just the 39 points in 47 minutes. That’s still absolutely worthy of investment for the Cheapie Bible purposes and possessing a -6 BE with a matchup against the Sea Eagles means we’re likely to see approximately a $40,000 cash injection this week. I worry, though, given the amount of middle forwards at the Dragons that he may peak at $320k and plateau quickly as opposed to some of the other options at the price.
VERDICT: HOLD – But I wouldn’t be buying this week if you aren’t already on board.
Tex Hoy 5/8 | FLB (Knights) $240,300 – 47 points
It’s a shame Tex Hoy has the looming cloud of one of the world’s best fullbacks in Kalyn Ponga returning as the sticking point to his valuation as a KFC SuperCoach prospect, as he has notched 43 and 47 points respectively through two weeks largely without doing anything! The work rate and base for a fullback is exceptional at 20+ runs per game with the customary tackle busts you’d expect. Matchups against the leaky Tigers, Dragons, Titans and Sharks are coming up so if Ponga is indeed out until round six, Hoy could jet up to $350k.
VERDICT: AVOID – Still not for me given the guns at fullback and cheapies at 5/8 like Connor Watson and potentially Josh Schuster next week.
Stefano Utoikamanu FRF (Wests Tigers) $186,800 – 40 points
OK, OK, 40 points in 38 minutes is a little more like what we were expecting from big Stefano given the hype, but still just the one tackle bust and no offloads amazes me! This game was in the pouring rain so likely the offload was never going to be seen, but we are barely scraping the surface of his capabilities here.
VERDICT: HOLD – Hold tight, there’s more to come.
Matt Moylan FLB | 5/8 (Sharks) $253,600 – 20 points
20 points in the pouring rain and low scoring affair is absolutely what should have been expected from Moylan, and to the naked eye he looks like he’s fit and healthy and heavily involved in all that the Sharks are doing offensively. But, this judgment is not just about Moylan. With the likes of Cook, Mahoney, Brailey and Liddle seemingly must have players at the hooker position, and Connor Watson well ahead at the five eighth position, Moylan looms as a sell.
VERDICT: SELL – There is money to be made here no doubt, but there are other options of far greater priority at this point.
James Roberts CTW (Wests Tigers) $277,700 – 0 points
Roberts was a late withdrawal on Sunday from the Tigers’ lineup due to a shoulder injury but comes back for round three at the expense of Joey Leilua! Turns out if you don’t even attempt to tackle people you don’t get picked to play NRL. Funny that … I digress, Roberts’ money-making cycle is behind by a week as a result so let’s watch this week against the Knights with interest.
VERDICT: HOLD – Price won’t change this week, but I will be playing him in my starting 17.
David Fusitu’a CTW (Warriors) $251,800 – 25 points
Oh man, it really hasn’t gone to plan for Fusitu'a, even with matchups against the Titans and Knights, but we can give him a pass given the downpour and lack of involvement his edge had during the game. I can understand some people selling, but in my opinion a proven try scorer like Fusitu’a will go on a run at some point in the near future – if you can afford to hold and leave him WELL outside your 17 I think that’s the right call.
VERDICT: HOLD.
Jason Saab CTW (Sea Eagles) $233,200 – 29 points
Saab had 11 points in round one against the Roosters, so to see 29 points in round two against the Rabbitohs in the wet without a try is, well, some sort of positive? I’m clutching at straws there, but with matchups against the Dragons, Warriors, Titans and Tigers in four of the next five weeks I’m holding over a sideways move to David Mead.
VERDICT: HOLD – I would however sell to Tesi Niu, Simonsson or Daine Laurie if I didn’t own one of those three.
Leeson Ah Mau FRF (Warriors) $291,000 – 47 points
Ah Mau piqued my interest with 69 points in 41 minutes in round one, particularly given the Matt Lodge injury, so to see a further 47 points in 46 minutes is promising. The role of 40-50 minutes seems secure, and any time Ah Mau has had such a role in his career he’s delivered a 1.0PPM at worst. With a BE of -16 KFC SuperCoach Plus projects Ah Mau to peak in price at around $390k in round seven.
VERDICT: POD BUY – I have James, Leniu and even Utoikamanu ahead, but Ah Mau will definitely make some solid money at low ownership.
WATCHLIST:
Sam Walker HFB (Roosters) $173,700
Joseph Suaalii CTW | FLB (Roosters) $173,700
Shawn Blore 2RF (Tigers) $210,500
Ofahiki Ogden FRF (Bulldogs) $243,200
John Asiata FRF | 2RF (Broncos) $252.100
Sebastian Kris CTW (Raiders) $218,600
Zach Saddler 2RF | FRF (Sea Eagles) $173,700
Jake Simpkin HOK (Wests Tigers) $173,700
Connor Tracey HOK | 5/8 (Sharks) $253,600
Christian Tuipulotu CTW (Sea Eagles) $237,400
Dean Ieremia CTW | FLB (Storm) $173,700
Teig Wilton 2RF (Sharks) $250,300
Ben Trbojevic CTW | 2RF (Sea Eagles) $173,700
Greg Marzhew (formerly Leleisiuao) CTW (Titans) $173,700
Joe Stimson 2RF (Bulldogs) $228,900
Jock Madden HFB (Wests Tigers) $173,700
Jayden Sullivan HFB (Dragons) $206,900
Josh Curran 2RF (Warriors) $203,100
Haze Dunster CTW (Eels) $173,700
Ben Condon 2RF (Cowboys) $186,800
Max Feagai CTW (Dragons) $203,100
Mat Feagai CTW (Dragons) $173,700
Brayden Wiliame CTW (Dragons) $203,100
Matt Timoko CTW (Raiders) $203,100
Semi Valemei CTW (Raiders) $294,900
Paul Turner HFB (Warriors) $212,600
Tom Ale FRF (Warriors) $203,100
Isaac Lumelume CTW (Storm) $285,800
Franklin Pele FRF (Sharks) $173,700
$50K richer: SuperCoach champ’s first expense is shouting Kyle Flanagan
SuperCoach winner Blake Gentle is a groomsman at the wedding of Dragons five-eighth Kyle Flanagan and he knows exactly how he’ll have to spend the first part of his $50,000 winnings.
‘We’ve got to deliver’: No excuses as Sharks ready for finals charge
Craig Fitzgibbon knows few are giving his Sharks much hope in a week one NRL finals match-up with Melbourne, but the Cronulla coach is relishing the opportunity.