KFC SuperCoach NRL 2023: Every club’s major losses, why hooker shapes as key position, SC Mastermind
There are some big boots to fill at every position in 2023, but there are more opportunities at hooker than other positions, writes the KFC SuperCoach Mastermind.
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There are some big boots to fill for KFC Supercoaches ahead of the 2023 NRL season - physically none bigger than Viliame Kikau who’s left the Panthers for the Bulldogs, but also the top scoring forward of the past two seasons Isaiah Papali’i who moves from the grand finalists Eels to the wooden spoon Tigers.
KFC SuperCoach opportunities abound at every club but hooker is the position seeing a massive shake-up with eight of the 17 clubs set to field a new number 9 in 2023.
KFC SuperCoach guns Harry Grant and Damien Cook always deliver the goods but with emerging talents like Reece Robson and seriously underpriced options like Brandon Smith, Josh Hodgson and Mitch Kenny it shapes as a key position.
I’ve scoured through each club’s list and identified the value players ready to step up where others have changed clubs or retired.
Broncos
SC players of note out: Tesi Niu, Te Maire Martin
Analysis: Walsh will slot straight in at fullback, a role shared by Te Maire Martin 13 games at 38.15PPG and Tesi Niu 10 games at 56.7PPG in 2022. Walsh averaged 52.7PPG in his second season of NRL with the Warriors and had the goalkicking duties which added 7.5ppg. He scored just two tries in 22 games last season compared to nine from 14 in his rookie season of 2021. Expect those attacking numbers to pick up in a higher quality team and with State of Origin wingers Selwyn Cobbo and Corey Oates to put the finishing touches on Walsh’s strong passing game. I can easily see Walsh averaging 60PPG + in this Broncos team even without the goalkicking. Though playing last year’s two strongest defensive teams the Panthers and Cowboys straight up might be reason enough to look elsewhere.
Raiders
SC players of note out: Adam Elliott, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
Analysis: Adam Elliott averaged 59PPG in 56MPG as the Raiders lock last season. There are a few contenders to fill that spot in Elliott Whitehead, Corey Horsburgh and Corey Haraweara-Naira but I’m not convinced any of those should be on your KFC SuperCoach radar based on their current prices and past performances. Whitehead started at lock last year for not much more than 40PPG, Horsburgh only played more than 50 minutes or more five times last season. It’s a stretch to go from 42MPG. Hopefully a cheaper option emerges in the trials. Xavier Savage averaged 57PPG once he locked down the fullback position in 2022, he’s priced lower than that after coming off the bench and playing on the wing before ousting Nicoll-Klokstad.
Bulldogs
SC players of note out: Jeremy Marshall King, Paul Vaughan, Josh Jackson
Analysis: Marshall-King was the Bulldogs’ top averaging player in 2022 at 58PPG, Mahoney slots in at hooker after a 54.6PPG with the Eels. There’s too much other value in this position to even consider Mahoney but he’s a fair price. Viliame Kikau will take the 80mins on offer from Jackson though he’ll be on the left edge, meaning Raymond Faitala-Mariner who finished the season in that spot will move to the right edge. I think Kikau is an early season avoid. His 65PPG from 2022 had just 34 base points per game. I’m not sure he’ll find 31 attacking points per game as easy to come by as it was in the Panthers outfit.
Max King and Luke Thompson both look slightly undervalued and have dual 2RF/FRF status and should be reliable scorers without Vaughan in the rotation. Tevita Pangai Jr as usual is the wildcard. He started last season strong at 60PPG over the opening ten rounds before fizzling out playing reduced minutes and scoring 40PPG for the rest of the season. He was the top offloader last season and could be great value if his minutes tick up again.
Sharks
SC players of note out: Aiden Tolman
Analysis: The Sharks squad is very settled with just two veterans departing. Tolman played 20 games at 41MPG and Andrew Fifita had 19 games at 23MPG. Oregon Kaufusi joins from the Eels to take a chunk of those minutes. Braden Hamlin-Uele and Royce Hunt will also be in the mix.
Dolphins
SC players of note: Tom Gilbert, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
Analysis: In a veteran forward pack Gilbert shapes as the man to bring the energy and play the most minutes in the middle. It is hard to get a read on Gilbert in that role with only two starts there for the Cowboys last season. He started 17 games on the left edge with a good chunk of those seeing him switch into the middle midgame. The game time for the other middle options last year were Jesse Bromwich 50MPG, Mark Nicholls, 34MPG, Jarrod Wallace, 38MPG, Herman Ese’ese 26MPG. Tabuai-Fidow, has a 44PPG career average at fullback he’s definitely underpriced having been used off the bench by the Cowboys last season.
Titans
SC players of note out: Greg Marzhew, Corey Thompson, Jamayne Isaako, Esan Marsters
Analysis: The Titans have cleared out a stack of backline players who at some time or another were KFC SuperCoach options. Aaron Schoupp joins from the Bulldogs to take a centre spot but that should still leave room for Alofiana Khan-Pereira especially while Brian Kelly is suspended for the opening three rounds. Hooker was a problem position for them last year but with Sam Verrills and Chris Randall joining Erin Clark should be good to play as a middle forward where he delivered 59.8PPG across four games.
Sea Eagles
SC players of note out: Kieran Foran, Andrew Davey, Dylan Walker, Martin Taupau.
Analysis: Foran’s five-eighth spot will be taken by Josh Schuster. He should be in every team at his price and potential. He played two games in the position last year posting 41 each game. That was without Tom Trbojevic. With Turbo the previous year he averaged 76.7PPG across three games. Small samples in the position but if a fit Turbo is going about Schuster could even be your first pick at five-eighth if another cheapie emerges. Kelma Tuilagi joins from the Tigers to take the left backrow spot Davey had for the bulk of 2022. Tuilagi was a popular cheapie to start last season in the same position for the Tigers but most games didn’t get the ball in his hands. He only had double digit hit ups in three of his 19 games in that position and was among the worst forwards for missed tackles averaging more than three per game. The exit of Martin Taupau and Dylan Walker opens up spots in the middle. Hopefully for us cheapies Sean Keppie and Karl Lawton get the nod.
Storm
SC players of note out: Brandon Smith, Felise Kaufusi, Kenny Bromwich, Jesse Bromwich
Analysis: Four test players out in one hit makes the Storm forward pack one of the most interesting places for KFC SuperCoach in 2023. The reality might not be that exciting though. On the edges, Kaufusi and Bromwich have averaged low 50s for the past three seasons. Tariq Sims did exactly that at the Dragons last year so he’s not a value pick. Hope lies in either Eliesa Katoa who’s priced lower after coming off the bench for the Warriors last season. Trent Loiero who’s been part of the Melbourne system and punched out 56.PPG when filling in on the edge over the past two seasons. Christian Welch only played one game last season and should snap up all of Jesse Bromwich’s minutes. He looks good value if he can return to the 59PPG of the season prior. Without a quality backup hooker option like Smith, Bellamy won’t have the luxury to bench Harry Grant (or try him in the halves) like last season.
Knights
SC players of note out: Mitch Barnett, David Klemmer, Jake Clifford, Anthony Milford, Edrick Lee.
Analysis: David Klemmer’s departure leaves a 61MPG hole in the middle. The Saifiti twins should pick up more game time, but Jack Hetherington looks like an easy value pick for a FRF bench spot here with handy dual positioning and minutes up for grabs. Adam Elliott comes from the Raiders to slot straight into lock where Barnett played and he shapes as good value if he can continue his 59PPG in that position. The halves were a worry for the Knights last season and the answer is to once again try Kalyn Ponga at five-eighth this time adding Jackson Hastings alongside him. Ponga put up 41PPG in his last crack in the halves to start the 2019 season. Ponga’s coming off his worst ever season at 50PPG after headknocks put him out of two games very early. Playing fullback he’s value compared to a career average there of 68PPG but in the new position and with Hastings to potentially take the goalkicking off him, there’s too many questions about Ponga for me. If Ponga does fire the man on the end of it will be Greg Marzhew who takes the spot where Edrick Lee scored 14 tries in 16 games.
Cowboys
SC players of note out: Tom Gilbert, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
Analysis: The Cowboys left back row spot is up for grabs at the moment with Gilbert’s exit, Luciano Leilua stood down and Heilum Luki working his way back from injury. The Cowboys remaining options are Mitch Dunn returning from an ACL injury and journeyman Jack Gosiewski who has a 43PPG career average when starting in the back row. Neither are appealing. Tabuia-Fidow featured off the bench in an impact role in the second half of last season. I’d expect Jake Granville to return to the bench utility role. Don’t let that put you off Reece Robson at hooker though. Robson secured the 80-minute role from round 8 onwards last year averaging 71.1PPG. Granville featured in eight of those matches with no impact on Robson’s minutes. Robson is undervalued on those numbers and worth serious consideration at hooker given the Cowboys early draw.
Eels
SC players of note out: Isaiah Papali’i, Reed Mahoney
Analysis: Papali’i has been the top scoring forward of the past two seasons and leaves a massive gap. Before Papali’i emerged Ryan Matterson was averaging 75PPG as an edge forward for the Eels. It would be nice to see him return there but he only played two games on the edge last season with the Eels using him at lock or off the bench. Either way we won’t know for sure where Matterson fits in the puzzle with him suspended until Round 4. J’Maine Hopgood seems assured a starting position in the pack and should be one of the best cheapies of the season. Lock him in. Reed Mahoney didn’t miss a game in 2022 and he’s been replaced by Josh Hodgson who was injured in his only game. Hodgson averaged 52PPG in his last full season with the Raiders so he’s great value if he stays fit.
Panthers
SC players of note out: Viliame Kikau, Api Koroisau
Analysis: Luke Garner seems most likely to fill Kikau’s massive boots. He had eight 80 minute games in the back row at 58.8PPG with the wooden spoon Tigers. You’d expect he could do similar or better with the Panthers. Lock him in as a value pick. Mitch Kenny has averaged mid 40s scores when filling in for Korisau the past two seasons. So at first glance he looks a solid money earner. Kenny did play 80 and 75 minutes and move into a middle forward role when Soni Luke came on last season. If that’s how the Panthers rotation works his stocks go up further.
Dragons
SC players of note out: Tariq Sims, Josh McGuire, Andrew McCullough
Analysis: Three experienced forwards move along and the players coming in are Jacob Liddle at hooker, Ben Murdoch-Masila who could be a cheapie option and Zane Musgrove. Yep, it’s hard to get excited about this Dragons team. Jack Bird has some appeal as one of the last remaining CTW/2RF duals. At lock he averaged 68PPG at the back end of the season but his versatility is a killer and he could just as soon slot in at five-eighth where he averaged 44PPG last season.
Rabbitohs
SC players of note out: Mark Nicholls, Jaxson Paulo
Analysis: The Rabbitohs squad is pretty settled with a few cheapies in line to take Nicholls’ minutes in the middle. Davy Moale, Hame Sele and Daniel Suluka-Fifita will be in the mix. Prior to being injured last season Jacob Host was coming off the bench at the 20 minute mark onto the left edge and pushing Jai Arrow into the middle. Jaxson Paulo, played a mix of wing and centre on the right edge for the Rabbitohs. Taane Milne featured there too but is suspended for Round 1 opening the door for Izaac Thompson who scored a try in both games he played last season.
Roosters
SC players of note out: Sam Verrills, Siosiua Taukeiaho
Analysis: Brandon Smith replaces Verrills at hooker and comes in at a great price after being used mostly off the bench by the Storm last year. His career average starting at hooker is 62.8PPG in 60MPG. A good chunk of that includes his 10-try 2021 season where he shared duties with Harry Grant. Taukeiaho averaged 59PPG in 51MPG in 2022 leaving a nice gap. Matt Lodge averaged 60PPG as a starting prop in his late season switch to the Roosters but that did include two tries. Lindsay Collins should also represent value coming off a few injury-affected games pulled him down to a 43PPG average.
Warriors
SC players of note out: Reece Walsh, Euan Aitken, Eliesa Katoa, Jack Murchie.
Analysis: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has had two injury-hit seasons at the Raiders so comes to the Warriors very cheap to replace Walsh at the back. He averaged 57PPG in 2019 and 54PPG in 2020 playing fullback. Lock him in as one of your CTWs and don’t look back. Mitch Barnett should be a straight replacement for Euan Aitken on the left edge and is coming off his lowest averaging season in some time at 51PPG. His previous three seasons saw him score at 63, 61 and 62PPG. Marata Niukore should claim the right edge where Katoa and Murchie both featured in 2022. He’s priced off a 39.9PPG season where he had just a couple starts in the backrow and mostly came off the bench for the Eels. The two games we did get a look at him there he averaged 52.5ppg.
Tigers
SC players of note out: Luke Garner, Jacob Liddle, Kelma Tuilagi, James Tamou, Zane Musgrove, Jackson Hastings.
Analysis: A massive clean-out sees a seriously impressive forward pack assembled by the wooden spooners. Joe Ofahengaue 61.2PPG was the only Tigers player to average more than 60PPG last season and he’s now joined by David Klemmer 63.3PPG (fourth best FRF), Api Koroisau 63.3PPG (fourth best HOK), Isaiah Papali’i 79PPG (best 2RF) and John Bateman who was among the top back row scorers in his spell at the Raiders. Papali’i averaged 55 in base stats per game last season. I’ve got no doubt he’ll get through the work but will he find the attacking numbers as easy to come by? I’m not so sure he can match the 10 tries. The real value in this team could be Adam Doueihi who is locked in with Luke Brooks in the halves with Jackson Hastings moving on. Doueihi only managed 11 games in 2022, two off the bench and one in the centres. At five-eighth he averaged 64.9PPG and behind this forward pack he could push closer to the 77PPG season he had in 2021.
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