KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021: Experts reveal Round 3 trades
The all important Round 3 is here, with head-to-head matches starting, injury dilemmas and the first wave of price rises. But who should KFC SuperCoaches be locking in?
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Injury carnage has thrown KFC SuperCoaches trade plans in disarray ahead of the all-important Round 3, with popular guns Nathan Cleary and Ryan Matterson both ruled out.
Not only does head-to-head matches get underway this week, but we’ll also see the first wave of price rises for 2021. While many KFC SuperCoaches may have locked in which cheapies to buy, injuries have once again forced players to change their plans.
With Ryan Matterson suffering another concussion and no clear date on his return, the Eels gun is a must sell for the 28.2% if players who have him. And while Nathan Cleary is officially out of the Grand Final rematch due to concussion, he is a strong hold, even for players who have Sam Walker and no backup starter.
Here’s how our experts are looking to go in Round 3.
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WILSON SMITH
1. Ryan Matterson (OUT) Mitch Barnett (IN)
Unfortunately Ryan Matterson has to go after suffering yet another head knock, and with his history of concussion it remains uncertain when we see him back on the field, especially considering this is his second in eight months. Matterson missed two weeks after suffering a head knock in Round 11 last year, and missed five games back in 2018. The flexibility of having Tino Fa’asuamaleaui means I had the option of bringing in a gun 2RF or FRF to replace Matterson, and with Mitch Barnett one of the most popular buys this week, I had flirted with the idea of bringing in Junior Paulo. He scored tries in both his opening games and inflated his scores, but he is playing bigger minutes in 2021 (58 minutes in both games), averaged just under 50 points in pure base and heaps of points in offloads and tackle breaks. But instead I have decided to go with the upside play of Mitch Barnett, who has solid base, but also propped it up with goal kicking.. and he may have done enough to keep the role when Kalyn Ponga returns.
2. Matt Moylan (OUT) Jayden Brailey (IN)
While I feel Jayden Brailey is somewhat of a luxury trade given the forced injury trade and other cheapies I want to jump on, he is certainly a fantastic buy. I already have Connor Watson and Matt Moylan who are going to make money, but neither are going to see any big, fast price rises. Brailey on the other hand is likely to jump up by over $100k, and is producing borderline keeper stats at this rate after scores of 86 and 90 (50 and 63 of which was base). Even if you ignore his try from last week, his stats have been sensational to start the year. It will be interesting to see how his role changes when the likes of Kurt Mann, Blake Green and Kalyn Ponga return, and whether Mann gets a bench spot and Green a likely starter. But in the meantime he is a great buy.
ROB SUTHERLAND
1. Ryan Matterson (OUT) to Mitch Barnett (IN)
Matterson’s concussion creates a conundrum for plenty of SuperCoaches. Do I hold and hope he returns in round four, or do I look to what happened in 2020 (when Matterson was concussed in round 11 and did not return until round 14) and make the trade now. I’m trading, and will find a way to bring him back when he’s playing again. Luckily Matterson’s high price means you can have you pick of the pack and I have the duals to buy any FRF, 2RF and even CTW in his place.
I took a hard look at Junior Paulo ($570K) as I think he’s the FRF with the best blend of work and upside attacking stats.
And I flirted with selecting one of the star CTW like Brian To’o and Brett Morris. Both have very solid base and both are on the end of the hottest attacking sides of the hottest attacking teams. Ultimately though I decided I needed a gun forward not a gun back and so I turned to the 2RF options.
Tohu Harris has continued his 2020 form, averaging 76PPG thanks in a large part to 63PPG in base. I may regret this but I turned elsewhere looking for similar output at a lower price. Tyson Frizell is a sneaky POD who is averaging 57PPG in base and 13PPG in tackle busts/offloads. I took a hard look at him but in the end, worried that Frizell couldn’t maintain that base output, I turned to another Knight.
And so welcome to the Beasts Mr Barnett. In 2020 Barnett played lock for much of the season but in 2021 Connor Watson’s return from injury sees him push out to an edge. His workrate is down, but far from poor, averaging 48PPG in base. And it is ‘good’ base for SC too, because while Barnett is averaging ‘just’ 22 tackles per game, he’s also averaging a superb 17 runs per game. And with those runs come offloads and tackle busts - enough to add 10PPG to his average.
For those keeping score, that’s a combined 58PPG in base and offloads/tackle busts. Which is pretty good when you can add the odd linebreak and try. But as they say on the shopping channel - ‘wait there’s more’. Because, Barnett is also goalkicking for the Knights, and he’s slotting them nicely having potted 10 shots from 11 attempts which has added 38 points or 19PPG to his average.
Yes there is a risk that Kalyn Ponga (Shoulder - Rd 4-6) takes the kicking tee when he returns, but Ponga has never been a dead-eye-dick and I’m betting Barnett keeps the job. A hard running, 80-minute edge player with a decent offload game and goalkicking, all for $540K - yes please.
2. Matt Moylan (OUT) to Jayden Brailey (IN)
This trade is not forced by injury, or even form - at least not Moylan’s form which while not amazing has not been horrible with the Sharks five-eighth averaging 36PPG - rather it is in recognition of Brailey’s outstanding play so far.
The Newcastle hooker is averaging 88PPG over the opening fortnight on the back of 57PPG in base and a passel of attacking stats including a try, try assist and two linebreaks. If those attacking stats disappeared then Brailey will still make $100K in the next two weeks on base alone; and be a top-17 player each week too. If he can add 8PPG in attacking stats to his base that number rises to $130K over four weeks.
TOM SANGSTER
1. Matt Moylan (OUT) Jayden Brailey (IN) via Connor Watson
Matt Moylan has hardly disappointed. In fact, he’s due for a +$9.6k price bump after this week. However, Jayden Brailey is impossible to pass up and Moylan is the casualty for Sangster’s Paradise. Brailey is hardly a unique purchase (in fact he’s the most popular buy this week). But sometimes it pays to stick with the crowd as KFC SuperCoaches are generally an informed bunch. Brailey has a break even of -54 and SuperCoach Plus predicts he will rise by almost $100,000 after this week (note: your KFC SuperCoach Plus free trial has run out so sign up now for $24.95).
2. Ryan Matterson (OUT) Mitchell Barnett (IN)
While we have no concrete timeframe on Matto, prior concussion history tells us he’s likely to miss multiple weeks. He is therefore the most sold player and Sangster’s Paradise again concur with the crowd. Angus Crichton is by far the best replacement but I already own him, which leaves a tough call between David Fifita and Mitchell Barnett in the gun category. There’s also a little voice in my head trying to convince me of some mid-range madness with Sitili Tupouniua, Lindsay Collins or Josh Jackson. But a gun for a gun is a proven strategy so Barnett gets the nod. Yes, calling him a “gun” is a tad premature given Ponga is due back in a few weeks and he may relinquish the kicking duties. But the 48 base is sensational for a backrower and Ponga is hardly a sharpshooter, so going on recent form with the boot there’s serious hope Barnett continues kicking goals even when Ponga returns.
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