KFC SuperCoach: Best buys for season restart rated
The KFC SuperCoach player market has turned on its head over the COVID lockdown. These are the buys to target with your FIVE trades, via Rob Sutherland.
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- Ten players under the most pressure when season restarts
- Two modern greats share Jordan’s winning attitude
Api Koroisau ($338,800) HOK
At the start of the second round, Koroisau was the eighth most owned player in the game and in 41.3% of teams. When round three begins that ownership rate will be a fair bit higher after the Penrith recruit knocked out scores of 97 and 76 in the opening two games.
As promising as the headline scores were, it was Koroisau’s workrate which saw him average 57PPG in base alone over the opening games and that is why he leads the rankings here. One note of caution is that Koroisau does have a history of injury and the odds are he will miss time if asked to bang out 80 minutes week in week out.
But that maybe is not enough to warrant a ‘No’ when it comes to making this trade, if you don’t have him, get him and hope for the best.
Expected five round price rise: $180K-$250K
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Connor Watson ($506,700) HOK|5/8
Jayden Brailey tore his ACL in round two and the injury opens the door for Connor Watson to move from being a supersub off the bench to playing 80 minutes at hooker. This is huge for KFC SuperCoach NRL, Watson started seven games at hooker for the Knights in 2019 and scored 91, 70, 55, 75, 82, 117 and 24 (he spent 10 in the bin in that game) averaging 73PPG (51 in base) and 74MPG.
Available at hooker and 5/8, Watson does not project to make as much cash as Api or some below due to his reasonably high entry price, but his solid scoring potential will likely see him sit near the top of the ‘most purchased player’ list.
Expected five round price rise: $120K-150K
Now to a trio of CTW options who impressed in the opening rounds and are priced between $400-$450K.
Jamayne Isaako ($420,000) CTW/FLB
Early in the 2020 hype the fullback job at the Broncos was Isaako’s to lose — and lose it he did just weeks out from the season start when Jack Bird appeared to make the custodian job his own. And then just two days before the Broncos first game of the season Bird suffered an ACL injury and the job was Jamayne’s again.
Maybe it was the kick in the pants that Isaako needed because he could hardly have been more impressive over the opening two rounds, stuffing the stat sheet with a try, try assist, try contribution, two linebreak assists, plenty of tackle busts and even offloads. The workrate has been solid enough (averaging 24PPG in base) and his goalkicking has been good (averaging 13PPG) giving him a base of around 35PPG to work with. You could probably jumble the three CTW I list here in any order but I have Isaako on top thanks to the kicking duties.
Expected five round price rise: $130K-180K
Josh Mansour ($416,700) CTW
I’ve ranked Mansour second of the CTW buy options which may be a bit risky considering the Penrith winger’s run of bad luck with injury AND my worry regarding his attacking stats detailed below but hear me out.
Last year was a mixed one for Mansour. He did play 19 games which was a big improvement on the 13 he managed in each of the 2017 and 2018 seasons — but in those 19 games Mansour scored just one try. ONE! Mansour also failed to assist a single try in 2019, but that’s not so shocking because he only bagged a solitary assist in 2018 and again in 2017.
Wingers aren’t there to assist, after all it’s their job to score. And therein lies a worry re Mansour’s 2019 numbers. You see, in round one Mansour scored 65 points with a try assist. In round two Mansour scored 79 points — with a try and linebreak assist. As I pointed out at the start of this little story, history suggests those assists will not keep flowing for Mansour.
So why the ‘buy’ recommendation I hear you ask? Well, alongside those attacking stats, Mansour has been pumping out the base at a rate of almost 38PPG so far. That’s high level stuff for a CTW. He’s also passed the eye test — yes I know for many Mansour regularly passes the eye test but I mean as a player not as a stud muffin — in the early rounds. Mansour is looking like he may be ready to forget his 2017-2019 form and return to the halcyon days of 2016 which saw him average 63PPG.
There’s also the POD issue to consider when compared to the men above and below him on this list; Mansour is owned by just 4% of coaches at this point which compares favourably to Isaako (17%) and Staggs (13%). I think Mansour is a little riskier than Isaako but has the same upside as Staggs at a lower entry price and much lower ownership rate and so have made him the meat in my Broncos sandwich.
Expected five round price rise: $140K-180K
Kotoni Staggs ($447,400) CTW
Despite being set to make the most money in the short term I have ranked Staggs last of the three CTW and that despite him having scored the most points of any CTW so far. Staggs holds that record thanks to a beastmode performance against the Rabbitohs playing a mix of centre and halves and scoring three tries and 121 points.
Staggs scored a try in the opening match too, with a linebreak, and yet tallied just 53 points. And therein lies the reason I have ranked Staggs third here. Workrate is not the youngster’s go. That’s not necessarily a fatal knock when it comes to SC, after all Latrell Mitchell had one of the worst workrates of any CTW last year and he comfortably topped the scoring of true CTW (excluding the 2RF interlopers like Bateman and Matterson etc).
But it does mean that pressure is on for attacking stats every game and if they do not come then a sub-40 point game is likely. Staggs is a real talent and maybe he can keep the attacking stats flowing, so I certainly would not try to talk anyone out of buying him, rather I’m a safety first guy so have rated him third.
Expected five round price rise: $80K-$200K - Staggs is very hard to pin down here because if he nabs tries in three of his next five games you can expect him to fall at the top of this scale, should he be held tryless in four of the five he will struggle to reach the bottom of the scale. Big risk, big reward.
Alex Twal ($492,200) FRF
Is this the year Alex Twal progresses from ‘the man with potential who just needs more time’ to ‘The Man’? If Twal’s scores in the opening two rounds are anything to go by the answer would appear to be an unequivocal yes. However, I love to equivocate, so while I’m very much Team Twal, some caution should be had. But first to the numbers — in round one Twal played 53 minutes and scored 78 points (60 in base). In round two the Tigers had some injuries and so Twal played 66 minutes and he scored 72 points - EVERY SINGLE
FREAKING ONE OF THEM IN BASE. Sorry to shout but that’s immense, and in fact it was better than that because Twal scored 74 in base and he lost two points due to a penalty. That’s the good.
The bad(ish) is that both those games/scores come with cautions. In round one Twal had a linebreak (10 points) and four tackle busts (8 points). That’s not really Twal’s go — for reference in the 24 games he played in 2019 Twal made a total of one linebreak and 10 tackle busts. And as I mentioned, the minutes in game two were inflated due to injuries around him in the pack.
Those are far from fatal issues though when it comes to considering Twal a trade target. While I don’t expect attacking stats to flow at round one rates, as he matures there is every reason to think Twal may add a little bit of elusiveness to his game. And 66 minutes is definitely unsustainable, but Twal can handle all the work the Tigers can throw at him and I’m expecting to see more games in the 55-60 minute range than 45-50. Currently a serious POD with under 4% ownership, Twal reads as an affordable way into a 60PPG average right now at a 50PPG price.
Expected five round price rise: $100K-130K
Tui Kamikamica ($295,800) FRF
Regular starting prop Nelson Asofa-Solomona (NAS) is working back to full fitness after suffering a hamstring injury in the pre-season and this opened the door for Kamikamica to start for the Storm in rounds one and two. Kamikamica certainly made the most of his chance averaging 63PPG and 46MPG over that span. The average score is boosted by a round two try, but 48PPG in base at better than 1 PPM is certainly impressive.
If there is a worry it’s a big one, in fact the biggest one in the NRL right now, in the shape of Asofa-Solomona himself. NAS is an absolute weapon off the bench, but you can’t help but feel that when he is fully fit he will reclaim his starting role and thus Kamikamica’s minutes will decline.
I listed Kamikamica as one of my five ‘buys’ ahead of round three, and while I fully expect NAS’ minutes to increase and Kamikamica’s to decrease as a result I also think the big Fijian can expect to play more than the 29MPG he averaged in 2019. Lastly, it doesn’t hurt that the big guy crashed over for that try in round two and so has a 72 point game sitting in his rolling average for a while boosting his cash creation.
Expected five round price rise: $120K-$150K
Luciano Leilua ($434,300) 2RF
I rated Leilua a strong maybe all pre-season but you can’t have them all and I did not put him in my squad to start 2019 — I’ll remedy that situation ahead of round three. Playing 80MPG in the opening two rounds, Leilua scored 64 in round one and 80 in round two. Full disclosure Leilua bagged a try in each game and obviously that strike rate will not continue, but he also averaged 47PPG in base and that provides a very nice floor for a player at his price.
A POD at under 10% ownership after round two, I expect his ownership percentage to double before round three gets underway. I don’t think Leilua will be a ‘keeper’ till the end, but he’ll make a nice bridge to the likes of John Bateman and/or Ryan Matterson.
Expected five round price rise: $140K-$180K
Jake Trbojevic ($583,900) 2RF
Let me remind you there is NO Origin or byes in the new schedule. So, its only the best available. Guys like David Klemmer, Jake Turbo and Cam Murray were all big no-nos to start because of that, but now they’re all fair game — and it’s an underpriced Jurbo that I’m all over. 80 minutes every week, extra time to have rehabbed the shoulder and unquestioned KFC SuperCoach elite status. John Bateman is very much in the mix here, too, if he is healthy and ready to go.
— Full story by Trent Copeland here
David Klemmer ($617,400) FRF
Klemmer has pumped out 69 and 72 in the opening weeks mostly in pure base, although he has also developed an offload over the off-season. With State of Origin to take place after the season proper and therefore have no impact on the regular season, the KFC SuperCoach value of Origin players is at an all-time high.
— Full story by Tom Sangster here
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