KFC SuperCoach 2020: Trent Copeland reveals his round one team
Resident KFC SuperCoach stats nerd Trent Copeland has turned the accepted method for selecting your round one team on its head unearthing some underowned gems.
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I’ve gone rogue.
Normally, I set my sights on a strict ‘Guns & Rookies’ approach but after a rain-man like summation of the values on offer, bye structure, origin player projections and numerous other unnecessary concerns at this point of the year – I’ve come to settle on quite a few players in the $300k-$550k ‘Mid Rangers’ price bracket.
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Now, let me preface this team with an important underlying trait. If you see a rookie that’s under $300k and your immediate thought is “NO WAY that guy is playing round one!” well, history tells us there will always be between 5-8 bottom dollar cheapies that will take the field in round one, so if it’s not the ones I’ve picked, it’ll be an easy switch come Team List Tuesday!
Here goes nothing, draft 1/207,890 before March 12 …
HOOKER
Damien Cook | Rabbitohs | $705,500
The best in the game, averaging 75.9PPG in 2019 with no less than FIVE scores of 100 points or more. I ain’t mucking around here. It’s really only a decision of Cook or Smith, as anyone else is costing you points every week and priceless trades later on.
Blayke Brailey | Sharks | $201,000
Cheapie of the year candidate in the absence of his brother who has flown up the M1 to the Knights. I am not expecting the full 80 minutes, but even in 55-60 minutes per game Brailey should be able to whack out scores in excess of 40 and make some handy cash.
FRONT ROW
Payne Haas | Broncos | $728,200
I like paying up when the best player in any position is so far in advance of the ‘rest’ and this guy is genuinely a freak of nature. Capable of 80 minutes in the middle with hay-day or Corey Parker like workloads, Haas averaged 78.4PPG in his pseudo rookie season to finish 8th for overall points. I don’t care that he likely plays Origin or that you could save money to Fifita etc. He’s a must have.
Moeaki Fotuaika | Titans | $443,000
Here’s where I’ve started to go a bit left of centre. I’m all in on this kid, and those that heard me shout his name from the rooftops last year will know why … ‘Fotu’ played reduced minutes to start the season, but have a listen to these numbers from round 11 onwards (13 games) in 2019: 54.7 minutes per game, for 54.3PPG including a massive 75 points across the full 80-minutes in round 14. There’s big upside if things break his way in a depleted forward pack.
Braden Hamlin-Uele | Sharks | $432,200
I told you, I’ve gone rogue. Hamlin-Uele, along with Fotuaika are ‘MA BOYS!’ for the past two seasons, and if you are an avid reader of the Cheapie Bible I write up each week you’ll know we saw this breakout coming. The guy averaged 46.9PPG at a monstrous (Fifita-like!) 1.3PPM in his first full season, and for those playing at home that is in just 35 minutes per game. Gallen is gone. Prior is gone. When Uele played 40 minutes or more last season (five occasions), he scored 62, 73, 51, 47 and 47 points. Simply put, if he can, and he’s certainly earned it, see 40+ minutes mark my words he will be a season long keeper in the top echelon of FRF’s. All in on these two.
Stefano Utoikamanu | Eels | $171,900
This guy is an absolute BEAST. The Eels upgraded his deal to try to keep hold of him (already signed for the Tigers from 2021, and there was talk of an early release), which tells us they may want to use the young pup alongside new signing Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Junior Paulo, Kane Evans and Nathan Brown in the middle rotation. Fingers crossed, as there’s big PPM upside here.
SECOND ROW
Jason Taumalolo | Cowboys | $723,400
See Payne Haas rationale. The best are worth paying for, particularly with cover of the first bye round. Nuff said.
John BateGUN (I mean, Bateman) | Raiders | $668,200
The perfect combination of base stats, a penchant for an offload and tackle busting numbers like an elusive outside back. Downside is that he doesn’t cover round 12, but I think Lolo & Bategun are so far ahead of the next rung of elite players that it’s worthwhile paying up regardless.
David Fifita | Broncos | $501,900
Pretty obvious one this. The guy busted out BIG time alongside Payne Haas for the Broncos in the back half of 2019, playing 80 minutes in all of the final eight matches, for an average of 76.9PPG including scores of 121 and 116. Get on, or get left behind.
Ryan James | Titans | $354,700
James is coming off a serious injury for a big man, and we know ACL’s normally take a year to get back to full capacity – certainly from a SuperCoach scoring capacity – but James may well be too much value at this price to pass up. Dual position flexibility, and round 12 bye coverage so handy also.
Billy Magoulias | Sharks | $221,700 & Jed Cartwright | Panthers | $184,900
Two young guys with big upside should they win respective spots on the bench for their sides. Magoulias probably the most likely, even if he didn’t beat out Jack Williams for the lock rotation.
HALFBACK
Mitch Moses | Eels | $579,300
I don’t mean to be a debbie downer on the Nathan Cleary train (literally my favourite SuperCoach player since his rookie season), but the Panthers have a tumultuous opening five games this season – Roosters, Dragons, Storm, Broncos, and Raiders. Yuck. So, on we go to a man who broke out last year, averaging a very impressive 62.3PPG and finding the consistency we need to invest in SuperCoach. Plays the first bye round if all goes to plan as an added bonus.
Jerome Luai | Panthers | $257,400
Love this kid. He just passes the eyeball test no matter what position he’s been asked to play in the past as a utility.
FIVE EIGHTH
George Williams | Raiders | $333,800
Given his unbelievable season in the UK, I find it hard to fathom a situation where the English star doesn’t at least provide a 45-50PPG average in a very good Raiders outfit – which would still provide a nice cash injection and value at the price. The upside is that we have a $333k, 60PPG player with dual position to make into Munster/Cleary/Cody Walker at some point. Kyle Flanagan very much in the mix here.
Phoenix Crossland | Knights | $184,900*
Serious talent, so much so that even a healthy Mason Lino (recovering from injury) at season start may still not beat out this youngster for the starting five eighth slot alongside Mitch Pearce. No-brainer if there in round one.
* Crossland is not expected to be fit to play early in 2020 due to injury - I may have to go back to the drawing board here so consider this just a holding selection at this point and I will reassess in my updated team.
CENTRE/WING
Blake Ferguson | Eels | $505,700
What a shambles the CTW position is this season. No one knows who the ‘keepers’ will be, especially with Bateman, Gutherson. Nikora etc all losing their dual position. So, in comes Fergo who I think will provide a reliable base, with super high upside in the early phase of the season (see Moses’ blurb for match-ups first five weeks). Covers the first bye, and I don’t think he plays Origin.
Zac Lomax | Dragons | $324,600
Super light in the CTW is the theory, so it’s either Lomax or Jamayne Isaako as my second most expensive option – the theory being until I know who the top echelon of players in this position are, I’m not going to spend up there. Lomax – provided he does get the mooted fullback slot – will have some nice upside, goal kicking duties and a relatively nice run to start the season.
Bradman Best | Knights | $240,700
Had a brief look at the Knights youngster last season, and while he doesn’t quite average 99.94 (sorry, cricket joke), he still showed flashes of what he’s capable. If starting at centre he will make plenty of coin for SuperCoaches!
The ‘rest’ are placeholders with serious talent, but unknown job security – likely to shuffle come TLT …
Xavier Coates | Broncos | $203,500
Tommy Talau | Tigers | $208,200 - though the Leilua/Doueihi arrivals look set to hurt this cheapie gun!
Albert Hopoate | Sea Eagles | $171,900
Greg Leleisiuao | Titans | $171,900
FULLBACK
James Tedesco | Roosters | $781,500
Simple, the best player in the game. Leave him out at your peril. Don’t believe me? He’s averaged 84.1PPG, 73.6PPG, 67.6PPG, 69.8PPG and 74.3PPG the last five years, importantly, playing over 20 matches in all but one season. GUN.
Ryan Papenhuyzen | Storm | $508,200
I’ve started the last three seasons with Teddy & Turbo, but this time I think the value and upside combo in the ‘PAP’ is too hard to pass up. He averaged 54.7PPG last season, and you may think yeah – not bad, but he’s not as good as the best. Well, NINE of his 19 matches played last season were under 30 minutes played off the bench. You know what’s coming next, the matches he started and played the full 80 minutes … Scores of 87, 71, 108. 123, 98 and 85 for an average of 95.33PPG. Obviously we’re not expecting that, but at $500k PAP is significant unders.
There you have it. Crusaders 1.0 with many more drafts to come no doubt!