State of Origin III: The plays and players that will decide who wins at Suncorp

Queensland have history, home ground and a SuperCoach; NSW have class and an x-factor. Who will win the Origin decider?

Nathan Cleary and Cameron Munster will have a big say in whether it's NSW or Qld who lift the Origin shield at Suncorp.

The Maroons have the home ground and history on their side, the Blues have an edge when it comes to class and an x-factor in the wings.

Who wins, well that might come down to these 10 factors.

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1) Suncorp deciders

The Blues snuck home in Origin III last year courtesy of a last-second try to James Tedesco — their first win in a decider since 2005 and just their third of this century. Their record in Queensland when the series is on the line is even worse, with 1994 and 2005 the only wins. Forget the talent disparity, Queensland will grow an extra leg at Suncorp Stadium.

2) Clipboard battle

Wayne Bennett got the better of Brad Fittler in Origin I, but Freddy levelled the slate in Sydney. Fittler simplified his forward rotations and the Blues dominated the middle as a result while Queensland powerhouse Josh Papalii played just 43 minutes and struggled to make an impact. Bennett has form in winning deciders as he steered Queensland to victory in Game III of the 1987, 1998 and 2001 series.

Nathan Cleary and Cody Walker celebrate NSW’s win. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

3) Can Cleary and Walker do it again?

Nathan Cleary won man of the match honours in Origin II, making him the second Blues half — behind James Maloney in 2016 — to be named best on ground since Andrew Johns retired, while Cody Walker would have been a worthy choice had he got the nod. The challenge now is to do it again — but away from home against a Queensland side that’ll be hellbent on shutting them down. The difference between good and great is backing up those efforts time and again.

4) Tino v Payne

The biff came back to Origin in Sydney when Payne Haas and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui locked horns and both were dispatched to the sin bin. Thankfully for fans, both men avoided suspension and that sets up an enthralling rematch. Even if punches aren’t thrown, the sight of two of the game’s best young forwards shaping up is worth the price of admission alone.

Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Payne Haas are set to throw down again in Origin III. Picture: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

5) Munster’s fitness

Queensland’s long list of unavailable stars means they rely heavily on their biggest names, and in terms of playmaking, attitude, swagger and gamebreaking ability they look to Cameron Munster more than anybody else. The Maroons’ hopes of winning Origin II left the field in the opening two minutes with their star five-eighth and his fitness shapes as the most crucial factor to Maroons success.

6) Queensland’s edge defence

After the stout tackling Queensland showed in Origin I, it was a shock to see them fall apart as they did in Sydney, with both edges leaking soft tries. The Maroons’ inability to number up correctly off scrums was particularly damning and they’ll need to improve their effort and attitude at Suncorp.

Will the Blues pull a fast one and inject Ryan Papenhuyzen into the team for Origin III? Picture: David Swift

7) Blues X-factor

Usually there’s no reason to change a winning team but Brad Fittler could yet pull a fast one by injecting Clive Churchill Medallist Ryan Papenhuyzen on to the bench for the decider. The Melbourne flyer has been named as 18th man and his speed off the mark could be a major weapon against the Queensland forwards. Of course, given Isaah Yeo’s strong debut as the team’s utility in Sydney, it would be a bold call from Fittler, who praised the Dubbo product’s showing in the aftermath of the match.

8) When do Queensland look to Grant?

All eyes will be on Queensland debutant Harry Grant — the Melbourne rake has been selected as the utility, but he’s a specialist hooker and his cleverness around the ruck could be just the trick. Jake Friend has worked hard in his debut series but the hooking spot will be Grant’s for years to come — it’s just a matter of seeing how long it takes for Bennett to turn to the reigning NRL rookie of the year.

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9) Travel factor

Don’t underestimated the effect travelling down from Sydney on the morning of the match had on the Maroons. That’s no excuse for a 34-10 belting, but it undoubtedly played a part in their sluggish performance. Now the Blues must endure a long journey of their own with a stadium full of howling Maroons awaiting them. The shoe is well and truly on the other foot.

10) Can Bennett lift them one more time?

Even the Maroons themselves would admit the Blues have them beat when it comes to star power. Wayne Bennett’s magic in Origin I came from taking unheralded or underestimated players and helping them play to a higher level than perhaps even they themselves thought possible. New South Wales has more talent, as they showed in Origin II, but Bennett is no doubt cooking up something special for the decider. By the time his charges take the field he’ll have them thinking anything is possible. But is that enough?