Campo’s Corner: State of Origin II preview and the best of the rep weekend
In this week’s edition of Campo’s Corner we run through all the changes for Origin II and reaffirm that given the chance we would die for Tonga.
SWITCH: Blues consider shock prop switch
SIGNINGS: Who has your team landed?
Faced with crisis, the Blues have gone back to what they know – wholesale changes and damn the expense.
Just like they did in the darkest days of The Streak, New South Wales have changed direction at breakneck speed. Brad Fittler never came across as the sort who panics about anything, but the drastic changes he made are hard to describe as anything else.
Let’s go through each of these changes for both teams and how they might impact Origin II.
NEW SOUTH WALES
Latrell Mitchell out for Jack Wighton
I still can’t quite believe this happened. Mitchell’s Game I performance has been raked over the coals and rightly so – it was the very worst of Mitchell, disinterested and lackidasical. But Mitchell has always had that in his game, it is the risk you take when selecting him.
Sure, sometimes he rampages over for easy tries and makes rugby league look like it was designed for lesser humans than himself, but sometimes he just lets the game go by.
In the final match before the teams were picked for Origin I, Mitchell had two runs in 80 minutes in a breezy win over the Titans.
Of course, one of those runs ended with a try. Mitchell is what he’s always been, the good comes with the bad and it’s a question if one is enough to wash out the other.
It was a bet Fittler was happy to make until now. Rightly or wrongly, this decision will be crucible on which the Blues are judged, in victory or defeat.
There are a particularly vocal subsection of Raiders fans who will swear up and down that Jack Wighton is a left centre in the making but the fact of the matter is he hasn’t played there at club level in half a decade.
The Canberra man is in excellent form and bounced back well after the intercept that marred his Origin debut and, as a robust defender, he’s a good choice to have alongside the recalled James Maloney.
But picking him out of position is a risk.
My gut feel says he’ll do well and if Will Chambers unleashes the fury he managed to tame in Origin I it could be the best one-on-one clash of the night. When Chambers goes cowboy he’s physical and furious, but he can be outflanked in his rush to bring the pain to his opponent.
If the Blues are smart, their left edge can be where they get Queensland.
But it’s a big risk, one Fittler didn’t have to take, and if the Blues go down, the blame of a state will fall on Wighton like rain.
Josh Morris and Nick Cotric out for Tom Trbojevic and Blake Ferguson
Cotric’s ankle injury made Tom Trbojevic’s return from injury a no-brainer but abandoning Josh Morris is a tough call on the Cronulla veteran.
Morris answered the call and returned from representative retirement in Origin I and was in good touch on both sides of the ball. Trbojevic has limited experience at centre and was so effective last year as a kick returner on the wing that it seemed a smart match. But instead the Blues have turned back to Blake Ferguson after two years in the wilderness.
Ferguson has been solid for Parramatta since a rib injury ended his early season purple patch but that’s about it.
His willingness to work and the quality of his carries are unquestionable, but there are errors in his game that he has never fully extradited and they often show up at the worst possible time.
His effort cannot be doubted, but he’s a risky choice, especially next to an unfamiliar partner on Cameron Munster and Kalyn Ponga’s side of the field. However, given how the Blues struggled for yardage once David Klemmer left the field in Origin I, Ferguson’s carries from his own end could be a valuable addition.
Hopefully Trbojevic will be given permission to roam around the field as he sees fit, which he did to great effect last series - he can add another dimension to the Blues attack up the middle of the field and further strengthen their greatest weapon.
Cody Walker out for James Maloney
The survival of Nathan Cleary and the 11th hour relief of Mitchell Pearce missing selection overshadowed the Blues complete and utter desertion of Cody Walker. Walker’s performance on debut was far from his best but it was also better than many have given him credit for. At the very least he helped set up a try late in the match and had two line break assists – compare that to Cleary, who struggled to create anything at all.
But the howling masses demanded blood and Walker was the sacrifice they were given. He was rebranded as a dud, hopeless, couldn’t crack a wet paper bag, let alone a Queensland defensive line.
It was even further proof of the recency bias which infects rugby league at Origin time, as if the 11 weeks beforehand (where Walker was one of the best players in the competition) didn’t happen at all. Walker’s performance against Penrith was that of a player with no confidence left, struck by the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune for the first time in his career.
Sadly, he seems destined to join the likes of Jarrod Mullen and Terry Campese as Origin saviours turned scapegoats.
Instead, the Blues have turned to the player who three weeks ago, despite his track record, wasn’t good enough until he suddenly was again, James Maloney. It bears repeating that Maloney is the best and most decorated half the Blues have had since Andrew Johns and they do not win the 2018 series without him.
As badly as Walker has been hamstrung, Maloney’s inclusion could go a long way towards salvaging the Blues – he can provide direction and poise, especially in the attacking 20, which the Blues sorely lacked in Origin I, and if he can replicate his combination with Cleary from last year (when Maloney did almost all the organising and Cleary was restricted to secondary duties, kicking and tackling) the Blues could be on.
Maloney might not have enough left in the tank for a full season of brilliance and his combination with Cleary might never become all it could have been in Panthers black but the Blues don’t need a season – they need one game, one time or there won’t be any more tomorrows.
Whatever Maloney has left at this level, the Blues need it now.
David Klemmer out for Daniel Saifiti
Jordan McLean’s injury came at the worst possible time. The North Queensland giant would have been a perfect like-for-like replacement for David Klemmer, who is out with a broken wrist. Instead, the Blues will hand a debut to Saifiti and for all the Blues changes for Origin II this is the one I don’t understand.
Dropping Mitchell and Walker are huge calls and perhaps not the way I would have gone, but I understand the logic behind it. With Saifiti it is more difficult to justify.
Ostensibly, Saifiti has been picked as an enforcer, a headbreaker, to grind Queensland bones to make his bread and strike terror in their hearts. But statistically Saifiti is enduring his worst season of professional football, averaging career lows in runs per game (9.6, down from 12.1 last season) as well as metres per game (86, down from 107 last season) while he’s on track for career lows in tackle busts and offloads. In the two performances that propelled him into contention, Newcastle’s wins over the Roosters and South Sydney, he did not make over 100 metres and when the Knights came up against a full-strength unit without Klemmer in last weekend’s loss to Melbourne, Saifiti was dominated, making just 62 metres from eight carries and missing four tackles as the Storm forwards showed him what an elite pack really looks like.
If the Blues wanted the same size, power and aggression but with stronger numbers to back it up then Junior Paulo was their man. He has all the physical power and imposition of Saifiti and makes more metres per game (110) from more average runs (12.1) and he’s got Saifiti beaten for tackle busts (23 to eight), offloads (32 to 1), plus he makes more tackles and misses less. He’ll wear the blue of Samoa instead.
Saifiti is a classic NSW selection in that he’s been picked for what he might be instead of what he is.
Angus Crichton and Payne Haas out for Wade Graham, Tariq Sims and Dale Finucane
Haas was under pressure to hold his spot before a hamstring ruled him and Crichton is gone after an indifferent display in Origin I but it is impossible to say how Graham, Sims and Finucane impact the match without trying to guess Fittler’s interchange plans, which have been nigh on impenetrable ever since he took charge.
Will Graham be trusted with extended minutes given his recent return from injury or is he the new utility, only to be used in emergencies? Will Sims be given heavy minutes on the edge in relief of Tyson Frizell or sent out as a shock troop in the middle? Will Finucane, the king of strong style and a stout defensive presence whose inclusion is a long time coming and deserved five times over, be given big minutes, as befits his style? Who can say.
If I were guessing I would think the initial plan is for Finucane to come on for Saifiti at about the 20-minute mark and play the duration of the match, as Jake Trbojevic did last year. Cameron Murray and Paul Vaughan playing 40 minutes each as the second middle seems a good fit while Sims replacing Trbojevic as a middle after 30-odd minutes, then moving to the edge to give Frizell a quick breather just after halftime before coming off after playing around 25 minutes is a good way to get the best out of him.
This plan would use five of the eight given changes, allowing Fittler some flexibility with his plans.
Graham could spell Boyd Cordner on the left edge if need be or work as a middle, where his line speed and ball-playing could help unlock the Queenslanders. Saifiti may not be given a second stint (as Matt Prior wasn’t in Origin II last year) or Fittler might stick with his plan of moving Frizell to the middle (which I hate like poison... leave him on the edge and let him hurt people Freddy).
But it’s impossible to know, especially given the lack of discernible patterns in Fittler’s rotation in Origin I. Kevin Walters outfoxed the Blues by keeping his substitutions simple and Fittler would do well to take a page out of his book.
Queensland
Jai Arrow and Joe Ofahengaue out for Jarrod Wallace and Tim Glasby
Arrow and Ofahengaue have succumbed to injury so Dylan Napa will start for Queensland while Jarrod Wallace and Tim Glasby are in on the bench. Wallace may be on his last chance given his anaemic displays in the past but part of that is on Walters, who has never found a way to use him properly. Wallace is a big minutes player but has never been given that time for the Maroons. Given the disciplined way Walters used his bench in Origin I (no player got more than 32 minutes) Wallace will need to be short and sharp but Ofahengaue, another player who does his best work in longer stints, was able to reinvent himself to great effect in Origin I.
Tim Glasby is Tim Glasby. He is unbeaten at Origin level in three matches, he’ll play 20 good minutes and that’s all he needs to do. There is no expectation of Glasby winning the game for Queensland but he won’t lose it for them either and that’s all they need.
Prediction
Fittingly, the breakdown for the Blues is what dominates here, as it has been so far this week and as it will be until kick off on Sunday. With so many changes, so many players under pressure and so much expectation, derision, criticism and armchair speculation abounding the pressure could be crushing. By contrast, Queensland will fly under the radar and should enjoy favouritism come match day. Their superior cohesion and confidence is one of their best assets.
The way Fittler uses his bench will be key. If Frizell and Trbojevic both play longer minutes than Game I it will go a long way to helping the Blues to victory. If Finucane and Trbojevic are out there together they can stand up to the Queensland pack and lock down the middle of the field. If Maloney takes control the way we know he can, the Blues’ red zone attack will be vastly improved. If Cameron Munster and Kalyn Ponga get going the way they did in the second half of Origin I it could be a nightmare for the Blues’ new-look right side.
The early kick-off will mean the dry, fast track at Optus Stadium will be even drier and faster. Damien Cook and James Tedesco are still the best weapons and the conditions will suit them. Paul Vaughan may need to play the game of his life if Saifiti can’t hold up his end of the yardage battle.
Felise Kaufusi will have James Maloney in his sights and there is nothing in the world of gods or men who can stop the Melbourne man getting a shot at his target at least once or twice. Origin Gagai, the eater of worlds, is here.
There are so many unknowns due to the changes and the short preparation - I’m picking the Blues, but not by much and with little confidence, thanks in no small part to the truly dreadful navy blue jerseys they’ll be wearing.
NSW 18 Queensland 16
First try scorer: Wighton and Addo-Carr for the Blues, Felise Kaufusi and Ben Hunt for Queensland
Man of the match: Maloney and Frizell for the Blues, Papalii and Munster for Queensland
Wild prediction: The Blues win it via a penalty goal inside the final five minutes.
PACIFIC SHOWDOWNS AND ALSO LEBANON ARE HERE
If anyone has followed my work for any length of time they know that I am all about international footy in all shapes, forms and sizes. Be it the Bati, the Kumuls, Mate Ma’a Tonga, Toa Samoa, the Norwegian Vikings or the Chile Weichafes, the Reggae Warriors of Jamaica, the Coconut Crabs of Niue and the Bears of Russia, I am 100% in, at all costs and at all times.
As such, this is one of my favourite weekends of the year and one of the best initiatives rugby league has come up with in some time. It’s not so long ago Samoa and Tonga were forced to plunder the Ron Massey Cup to fill out a side. Now they’re within touching distance of the big guns and there’s still so much more growing to do. International footy has come so far, so fast but can still be so much more. Campo’s Corner will be at Leichhardt Oval for the double header this weekend, and any rugby league person worth their salt will be there as well.
Tonga vs New Zealand
Anybody with a rugby league eye and a beating heart should be looking forward to this grudge match, which promises to be everything Origin II will be and maybe even more. Tonga is the most exciting thing about rugby league right now, the forefront of a revolution whose full impact is still being felt.
Tonga have the best forward pack in the world even without Andrew Fifita. They have the best player in the world in Jason Taumalolo and their fans are unlike any other in the sport. Their aim is to win the 2021 World Cup and the only way to do that is to play as many matches as possible. The death of the Denver Test is a blow to international rugby league but the birth of the Oceania Cup is a fine consolation prize.
The Kiwis have lost so many players to Tonga, and now Samoa, in recent years and it’s a measure of the strength of rugby league in New Zealand that they can still field such a strong side. Their win over Australia last year was no fluke and came just 12 months after they lost to Tonga and Fiji. The margins at the top of international rugby league have never been thinner.
New Zealand’s spine is stronger than Tonga’s and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck’s return is a huge boost. The creativity and poise of Shaun Johnson and Benji Marshall will be key and Marshall’s return is a wonderful and deserved bookend to a stellar career. Tui Lolohea was Tonga’s best in the loss to Australia last year but his inconsistencies are well known and he’s in the midst of a tough season with Leeds while John Asiata, the golden hombre himself, needs to show his best.
My head says New Zealand’s playmaking class can cover their inferiority in the forwards and set up a narrow, six point win. My heart says I would die for Tonga.
Fiji vs Lebanon
With no Mitchell Moses this match becomes a coin flip as far as I’m concerned. Fiji have athleticism and skill for days, especially out wide, and all their halves need to do is get clean ball to the likes of Viliame Kikau, Suliasi Vunivalu and Maika Sivo and the rest will take care of itself.
In contrast, Lebanon have Robbie Farah, wily and cunning as ever and still smart enough to cut the Bati to pieces if they don’t come correct. But will the Cedars have the penetration out wide to trouble the Fijians? Without Josh Mansour their backline looks a whole lot easier to contain – only Abbas Miskie and Reece Robinson boast NRL experience and Robinson has spent the season playing for Queanbeyan in the local Canberra comp.
Look for Tui Kamikamica to have a big impact on the result. An athletic middle forward, Kamikamica has enjoyed an excellent breakout year with the Storm and is more than capable of terrorising the Lebanese forwards. I’m tipping Fiji to surge away in the final quarter after a rough and tumble opening 60 minutes. Bati by 16.
Samoa vs PNG
It’s been a rough few years for Samoa. After they made great strides in the 2014 Four Nations, giving England and eventual champions New Zealand all they could handle things went awry and although those Samoans walked so Tonga could fly in 2017 it didn’t stop the Mate Ma’a from surging ahead in the Pacific’s fiercest sporting rivalry.
Even without stalwarts Joey Leilua and Tim Lafai this Samoan squad is as good as any they’ve named in a long time and in Anthony Milford and Chanel Harris-Tavita they have the best halves of any Tier 2 nation.
Backed up by the likes of Junior Paulo, Herman Ese’ese and the returning Martin Taupau, Samoa could finally make the leap they’ve come close to so many times before.
But the Kumuls are battle-hardened and fear nothing. On the back of the PNG Hunters entering the Queensland Cup, the national side has taken some quiet but important steps in recent years and James Segeyaro returning to the fold gives them the dash of class they lacked for a long time. Keep an eye out for Edene Gebbie, a fullback from Wynnum Manly who’s taken the Queensland Cup by storm this year, and Xavier Coates, an up and coming centre who is still only 18 but has been rated by good judges as one of the game’s best up and coming talents.
Papua New Guinea haven’t lost one of these mid-season Tests since 2015, a fair achievement given they once went 16 years without winning a match outside of Port Moresby.
Losing Ase Boas, who missed selection, and Justin Olam, who withdrew with injury, is a blow but the Kumuls will not back down and love the physicality of the battle. I wish I could go with the upset but the Samoan side is just too stacked – look for a big game from Jamayne Isaako in his preferred position at fullback and a star turn from Taupau as the Toa win by seven.
GOLDEN HOMBRE
Is there anything more thrilling than when a big man gets into the clear and attempts an ill-advised dummy, or perhaps a chip kick?
Is there anything greater than when a large lad decides the time has come for him to show the world the ball skills he knows lurk deep within?
Is there anything that lifts the spirit more than a hefty fellow crashing across the stripe for his second NRL try in his 179th first grade match?
I say no, and to honour these big fellas each and every week of the year, which many have dubbed #BigManSeason, we hand out The Golden Hombre, named after Todd Payten, the biggest halfback God ever created.
It was a bumper week for Golden Hombre nominees, perhaps the best field we’ve had since #BigManSeason was declared back in March.
David Gower, or Gowmalolo as he likes to be called, dotting down for his sixth try in a 10-year, 109 NRL game career? That’s right up there. Prop Thomas Gallo running 60 metres to score for Argentina in the u/20s Rugby World Cup? Another fine candidate.
But there can be only one, and this week belongs to Tony Clubb. The Wigan prop looks exactly like you’d imagine a fella named Tony Clubb to look and even though he was a centre back in the day we won’t hold that against him. Run, Tony. Run to freedom.
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