Stat Attack: The key factors set to decide NRL grand final

THEY are the best two teams in the NRL this year, but the Sharks and Storm both have overwhelming strengths and glaring weaknesses.

THEY are the best two teams in the NRL this year, but the Sharks and Storm both have overwhelming strengths and glaring weaknesses.

Fifita’s offloads

Love him or loath him, Andrew Fifita is statistically the most potent attacking forward in the NRL. The NSW prop has notched nine offloads in the finals to overtake Bryce Cartwright and BJ Leilua as the most prolific offloader this year. He also has the most tackle busts of any forward, with Jason Taumalolo a distant second, and sits in the top five for total metres. “For the Sharks, Fifita is the man,” says Darren Lockyer. “We talk a lot about the Storm and their defence, the best defensive system in the game. They are so good with their structure, so to break them down you’ve got to get some second phase football. Fifita against the Raiders had six offloads. That’s a real key to the game on Sunday because if you just go one out and shift the ball without getting any momentum, the Storm will just pick you off. He’s great at drawing in three or four defenders and getting that offload away, which creates an overlap.”

Andrew Fifita is an attacking weapon for the Sharks. Picture: Gregg Porteous

Cronulla’s potent right side versus Cheyse Blair

The Townsend/Lewis/Bird/Holmes right side combo is lethal. Between them they have 38 tries (Holmes leads with 19), 51 linebreaks (Holmes again leads with 23) and almost 200 tackle busts (Bird leads with 65). What’s more, their opposing centre this week is Cheyse Blair, who has averaged two missed tackles a game and was given a bath last week by BJ Leilua (on one leg), Elliot Whitehead and Jordan Rapana. The Raiders scored just 12 points in the preliminary final, but almost every attacking stat came down the right — including both tries, all four linebreaks and 13 tackle busts.

Valentine Holmes has 19 tries this season.

Melbourne’s long kicking

The Storm have a massive advantage here. Cameron Smith (five) is the best 40/20 kicker in the game, well ahead of the next best Andrew McCullough (three). Cooper Cronk and Blake Green (both one) have also kicked 40/20s this year to take the Storm’s tally to seven. Conversely, the Sharks are yet to kick a 40/20 this season. Further, Cooper Cronk has the second most kick metres of any player — well ahead of Cronulla’s best long kicker James Maloney, who just slips into the top 20. However, when it comes building pressure with short kicks, the sides are — incredibly — dead even. The hooker/halfback/five-eighth combos have both notched 37 forced drop outs this year — Smith (nine), Cronk (12) and Green (16) versus Maloney (16), Townsend (12) and Ennis (nine).

Cameron Smith has the most 40/20s this year.

Cooper Cronk’s running game

James Maloney is known as one of the best show-and-go merchants in the game, but according to the stats, Cooper Cronk is by far the biggest running threat of any half on the field. The Queensland superstar has notched 12 tries this year (Anthony Milford is the only playmaker to have scored more with 14) compared to Maloney’s seven.

Cooper Cronk has scored 12 tries this year.

Cronulla’s hot heads

The Sharks will overtake the Raiders this week to be the most penalised team in the competition. James Maloney has conceded the most penalties in the NRL, Michael Ennis sits second, while Andrew Fifita is in the top six. In contrast, Craig Bellamy’s disciplined Storm have conceded just the 10th most penalties, with Cameron Smith (11th) their only player in the top 20.

Michael Ennis is the second most penalised player in the game.

Halves hitting edge backrowers

Both sides rely on ballplayer/backrower combos on the fringes. On Storm’s left, Blake Green works alongside Tohu Harris, who has notched eight tries, 10 linebreaks and 52 tackle busts. On the right, Cooper Cronk schemes with Kevin Proctor, who has six tries, five linebreaks and 25 tackle busts. At the Sharks, Chad Townsend and Luke Lewis are part of an incredibly potent right side (see above), producing seven tries, eight linebreaks and 51 tackle busts. Lewis scored a crucial try last week and was a key factor in his opposite defenders Johnathan Thurston (six) and Gavin Cooper (eight) missing a huge amount of tackles. However, on the left, the James Maloney and Wade Graham combo is far less potent, which may come as a surprise to many after Graham caused Coen Hess (6 missed tackles) and Michael Morgan (5) nightmares last week. Graham has notched just two tries and five linebreaks this year. However, he is by far the best ball playing backrower on the field.

Tohu Harris has eight tries this year.

Wade Graham’s ball play

The Cronulla backrower may significantly trail every edge backrower in running stats (see above), but he is by far the best ballplayer. Graham has 10 linebreak assists, many from his trademark inside ball to Ben Barba. Luke Lewis (five) sits next, with Storm pair Tohu Harris (two) and Kevin Proctor (one) way off the pace in this stat.

Wade Graham has 10 linebreak assists this year.

Attacking kicks to Vunivalu

The Fijian flyer is the biggest aerial threat in the NRL. Anonymous at the start of the year, Vunivalu has shot to NRL stardom by scoring 23 tries in 20 games to be the NRL’s equal leading tryscorer this season (he can overtake Jordan Rapana with a try in the decider). Six of Vunivalu’s 23 tries have come from kicks.

Suliasi Vunivalu is an aerial threat.