Round 2 preview: 10 eventual premiers in NRL era have lost opening week matches
ISN’T round one of an NRL season great? All the winners are premiership contenders and the losers should give up now. NICK CAMPTON previews the final seven games of Round 2 where we get a better look at which clubs are on track and which are not.
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THE best thing about round one is always the takes, which are invariably hotter than the surface of the sun.
The winners are all finals bound and are premiership material, while the losers are all cooked, heinous losers who should give it all up now.
Rugby league excels at getting carried away, but round one is when the sport really shines.
As much as we love dropping some of those fire takes after the season opener – after all, the takes have been fermenting in underground take breweries all summer – an opening round loss isn’t a death knell.
Ten times since 1998 the team that ended up as premiers either lost or drew in round one.
In 2015, the Cowboys lost three straight to open the season, including a defeat to eventual wooden spooners Newcastle.
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In 2013 the Roosters, who eventually ripped off one of the more dominant seasons of the NRL era, were smacked 28-10 by Souths in their first match of the season.
Cronulla went down in the first week of 2016, Penrith lost three of their first four in 2003, Manly were winless after two weeks in 2008, the Roosters were 1-4 after five weeks in 2002 and the Broncos got wacked 36-4 by the Cowboys in 2006, as many of your Brisbane fans mates were sure to let you know after the loss to the Dragons.
On the other hand, the 2015 Knights won their first four before dropping 16 of their next 20 and landing the wooden spoon.
The 2013 Eels smashed the Warriors 40-10 in Round 1 of 2013 and finished last.
The moral of the story, as ever, is that we’re all idiots and nobody can predict anything after one week of footy.
That doesn’t mean we still shouldn’t try. Take responsibility out there people.
ROOSTERS v BULLDOGS
Everything wearing red, white and blue has been blamed for the Roosters’ shock defeat to the Tigers last week with the forwards coming under the heaviest criticism.
Trent Robinson currently spreads the minutes around fairly evenly – except for Zane Tetevano, each of the Roosters starting and bench middle forwards played between 40 and 49 minutes. Given the challenge they face this week against the Australia front row duo, more minutes for Sio Siua Taukeiaho and Isaac Liu, the two most effective forwards at the club, may be required.
Shorter, higher-impact stints may also suit Dylan Napa a little more with the Queensland Origin prop not performing to his abilities last week.
BRONCOS v COWBOYS
Even without Lachlan Coote and Michael Morgan, North Queensland match up really well with Brisbane.
Given the supremacy they enjoy in the forwards, North Queensland should be favourites even without the playmaking duo.
Brisbane are better than what they showed last week but they have a couple of issues that just aren’t going away – namely a lack of depth in the middle, two talented halves with the same strengths and weaknesses and the nagging injuries that are taking down Darius Boyd.
Lost in all the noise and conjecture around Matt Lodge is the fact he’s a starting prop with less than 15 matches of NRL experience.
For Brisbane to turn things around they need far more from the likes of Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire, who were both well below their best against the Dragons.
WARRIORS v TITANS
New Zealand owns the Gold Coast. Thirteen wins in their last 14 meetings means that whatever insanity is unfolding on the other side of the Tasman, the Warriors always get their act together long enough to give the Titans a royal caning.
The Titans have points in them so long as Ash Taylor is playing, but the Warriors have the ability to come out and physically dominate their opposition, much as Canberra did last week, and blow them off the park entirely.
They also share Canberra’s ability to collapse into a pile of sweat, tears and mistakes at any given moment, but that’s beside the point. New Zealand showed plenty of good signs last week but won’t convert all the unbelievers even if they can down the Titans, but it certainly won’t hurt.
PANTHERS v RABBITOHS
Penrith’s bench won them the game against Parramatta with Viliame Kikau and Reagan Campbell-Gillard changing the momentum of the match when they came on midway through the first half.
Campbell-Gillard was known for playing 60 minutes straight after starting matches on the bench last year, but Kikau’s introduction revealed an interesting backrow rotation where Isaah Yeo spent time on both edges and James Fisher-Harris rotated between middle and edge throughout the game.
It remains to be seen if Anthony Griffin was just seeing what he had in stock or if that’s how he intends to play throughout the season, but playing Kikau as many minutes as possible should be a primary concern.
Souths are without Adam Reynolds again and despite some strong individual efforts last week it’ll take a fairly special performance for them to get the upset here.
STORM v TIGERS
The Tigers’ attack is still very much a work in progress, especially with Josh Reynolds on the sidelines, but they’ll give as good as they get early on in the season as Ivan Cleary’s coaching begins to make an impact.
With Ben Matulino, Russell Packer and Elijah Taylor leading the way, the Tigers have a forward pack that’s low on big names but big on toughness and that’s spread to the rest of the team.
There were times the Tigers defense looked shaky against the Roosters but they communicated and scrambled really well on their own line.
Having said that, it’s difficult to see them landing an upset here.
Melbourne are far more settled than the Roosters, they have a better pack and they make a point of getting up for milestone games.
The Tigers won’t lie down by any means but it’s hard to see them getting up.
SEA EAGLES v EELS
Manly had enough chances to leave Newcastle with the two points but the Knights took as much as they were given and through scores of mistakes and penalties Manly gave them plenty.
Whether such lapses of discipline can be put down to habit or tendencies remains to be seen, but they can’t afford to make things so hard for themselves.
Of particular interest this week will be Trent Barrett’s forward rotations – Frank Winterstein and Lewis Brown, who have both been dropped, played one minute between themselves in an 89-minute game.
For Parramatta, keeping the intensity in the middle once their starting forwards go off is the key.
Once Daniel Alvaro, Nathan Brown and Tim Mannah left the field against Penrith, the Eels fell apart and they need more from Beau Scott, Suaia Matagi and especially Kane Evans.
RAIDERS v KNIGHTS
Siliva Havili played very well in his Canberra debut and the team looked infinitely better when he was on the field but the Tongan rake was afforded just 30 minutes of game time – the first 25 and the last five.
For the remaining 50, Aidan Sezer was pitched into hooker for the first time in his life.
There may be concerns over Havili’s ability to play greater minutes but that’s a huge ask of Sezer.
A more even split of minutes will be required if Canberra are to turn things around. Newcastle’s win last week was certainly stirring, but the Knights still have some teething problems, especially in attack.
For great swathes of the second half they were camped on Manly’s line but were unable to construct any truly threatening patterns – that’s something last week’s hero Mitchell Pearce will need to take responsibility for in future matches.