Parramatta Eels set to be heaviest hit by coronavirus pandemic
As the NRL going into lockdown for the first time in its history, NICK WALSHAW reveals why Parramatta are set to be heaviest hit — and the reigning premier Roosters will be unaffected.
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Parramatta is about to lose rugby league’s greatest home ground advantage, making them the NRL club most heavily hit by the growing COVID-19 pandemic.
With the NRL going into lockdown for the first time in its history tonight, League Central has spoken with club officials, sports psychologists, even bookmakers to determine the impact of empty stadiums on all 16 teams.
Overwhelmingly, those interviewed believe the biggest change will be the loss of home ground advantage – with exclusive TAB data revealing the Eels are now considered the NRL No.1 in that category.
Renowned performance psychologist Phil Jauncey also suggested that, when it comes to playing inside empty venues, it will be the players most used to raucous home crowds like the Eels, Brisbane Broncos and Newcastle Knights who suffer most.
Privately, NRL clubs are not only aware of this fact, but have spent much of the week brainstorming ways to keep a ‘fortress’ feel at traditional strongholds like Kogarah Oval and Leichhardt Oval.
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As first predicted by The Daily Telegraph on Wednesday, Canterbury will pump artificial crowd noise through the speakers for their Thursday Night Football clash with North Queensland at ANZ Stadium.
St George Illawarra will also have music blaring around Kogarah Oval when the Dragons players run out, score, convert, anything really – while the visiting Penrith Panthers will be greeted by only silence.
Elsewhere, Wests Tigers are encouraging fans to send in supporter photographs, which will be plastered onto the walls of their Leichhardt Oval dressing room, while the NRL is also planning fan interactions via the big screens which will still be operating at games.
“Undoubtedly, rugby league is entering unknown territory this weekend,” said Jauncey, whose superstar clients have included Australian Olympians, cricketers and most recently the South Sydney Rabbitohs.
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“Playing to empty stadiums isn’t something NRL players will have experienced before.
“And for those who do derive a buzz from the crowd, it could definitely impact them.
“But I think the greatest disadvantage will be for the home teams, particularly those used to playing in front of big crowds.
“In an empty stadium, that advantage they usually have disappears.
“When players look up into the stands and see nobody there too, they’ll notice … and certainly more than those teams who are used to playing before smaller crowds.”
Bookmakers agree.
According to exclusive TAB data, the Eels have built up rugby league’s strongest home ground advantage when playing at Bankwest Stadium, and previously Parramatta Stadium.
TAB spokesperson Matt Jenkins revealed his betting agency considered a home game worth five ‘points’ to the Eels, which is more than any other team in the NRL.
Newcastle, Penrith and North Queensland are all next best on four points, with Brisbane, Melbourne and St George Illawarra earning three points for a home game.
“Our bookies combine various factors to determine home ground advantage,” Jenkins explained.
“We heavily analyse past results while also factoring in things like crowds, travel and familiarity.
“But now with no crowds at NRL games, some of that betting has shifted by a couple of points.”
One example is the Friday Night Football match between Brisbane and South Sydney at Suncorp Stadium, where both sides were $1.92 in betting on Wednesday afternoon.
Yet had Broncos fans been allowed into the ground, Jenkins revealed the home side would have wound in to $1.70 favouritism, with the Rabbitohs drifting to $2.20.
Similarly, in the game between St George Illawarra and Penrith on the same night at Kogarah, the Dragons are $2.35 outsiders and the Panthers $1.62 favourites.
Yet were that game not being played behind closed doors, the Red V would firm to $1.95, with Penrith only slightly better at $1.90.
So unimportant does home ground advantage now seem to be in the NRL, the defending premier Roosters have transferred a game slated for the Central Coast, where they boast a strong local relationship, to Leichhardt Oval.
The Warriors too, who have remained in Australia since the coronavirus outbreak, will also play a home game Saturday at Cbus Super Stadium on the Gold Coast.
While Parramatta remain favoured to beat the Titans at the same venue 24 hours later, there is no doubting their NRL premiership hopes are significantly disadvantaged if games continue to be played behind closed doors.
Already, the loss of home ground advantage has been noticeable in the now cancelled NBL finals between Sydney Kings and Perth Wildcats, where both the second and third games were won by the visiting team in empty venues.
Yet despite the NRL lockout, Jauncey does not expect the quality of football to disappear in unison with both the crowds and home ground advantage.
“From an athletic point of view, rugby league players tend to be so focused on what they’re doing, on that next play,” he said.
“They’re sole focus is on how to execute whatever is coming.”
Sports mindset coach John Novak agreed, adding: “Players start out in rugby league because they love the game.
“So even inside an empty stadium, nothing has changed. It’s that simple.”
Yet several high performance staff contacted by League Central confirmed their club had discussed the issue of empty stadiums this week, with one admitting they had “no idea” how the team would respond.
Another Sydney staffer said: “We’ve simply reminded the players that every weekend there are hurdles to overcome in the NRL, like playing in the Canberra snow or the Townsville heat … now empty stadiums has become another one”.
According to Fox Sports Statistics, Parramatta, Brisbane and Melbourne are the three heavyweight NRL franchises when it comes to mixing both home crowds and home ground success.
At Suncorp Stadium, the Broncos have averaged more than 30,000 fans per game since 2017, while earning a success rate of 66.7 per cent – which sits them first and third in the respective categories.
Storm, meanwhile, averages around 16,000 fans and a 72.7 per cent win ratio, while Parramatta boasts 15,000 fans for home games and a 63.6 per cent success rate.
The biggest NRL smokey on the list is Penrith, whose record at Panthers Stadium equals that of the Broncos in Brisbane.