NRL 2021: Which teams will thrive and which will struggle in Queensland bubble
With the top six teams all but locked in, there are nine teams battling over the last two finals spots. But who will make it?
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Cronulla coach Josh Hannay says the Covid-forced relocation to Queensland is a chance for the Sharks to show they’re “made of the right stuff” as they prepare for a brutal road race to the finals.
With 15 of the competition’s 16 teams still in top eight contention, and the top six all but assured of making the finals, nine teams are essentially battling for two spots over the final two months of the regular season.
And no team is set up as well as Cronulla - the Sharks are injury free, have won five of their past six and have both the class and toughness to bolt from the quicksand and claim a remarkable finals berth despite the chaos of the competition’s switch to the Sunshine State.
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“Resilience has always been a hallmark of the Cronulla Sharks and this playing group have already shown a lot of resilience this year,” Hannay said.
“This is just another opportunity to show, as a club, that we’re made of the right stuff.
“Motivation shouldn’t be an issue, every game from here on in is an important one for us just like it is for a number of clubs around us.
“The motivation will be there, that’ll help us through this difficult period.”
Cronulla have a favourable draw through the final rounds of the regular season - Manly and Melbourne are the only top six teams of their slate for the rest of the season.
What may trip them up is losing matches they’re supposed to win, as they did against Brisbane two weeks ago - for which Hannay took responsibility.
“I said this to the playing group, I didn’t get our preparation right that week,” Hannay said.
“I don’t think complacency is going to be an issue, where we sit we don’t have the opportunity to take the foot off the gas.
“There’s no breathing room for us whatsoever.”
Newcastle are another strong contender to surge into the eight provided they can keep their best 17 on the field, while at the other end of the spectrum battlers like the Tigers and Broncos can still dare to dream of finals football.
But those dreams will likely end for one of them this weekend as they face off at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday - if either team could leave Brisbane, it’d be a ‘loser leaves town’ type of match.
The Broncos have been more focused on avoiding the wooden spoon than making the finals in recent weeks, and making it would take the miracle of miracles, but it’s not impossible.
The Tigers can also still dare to dream despite their recent struggles can likely bet on a big one this week from prop Joe Ofahengaue as he prepares to face his former Broncos teammates for the first time.
“Every time you play in the NRL you have to play like you have a point to prove. Coming up against some of my old teammates and some of the boys I’m really close with will be a bit different but I can’t wait to get out there and compete against them,” Ofahengaue said.
“It’ll be bittersweet, returning to Suncorp, I love playing at that arena and I think it’s the best stadium we have in Australia. It’s going to be a bit of fun.
“We have to get a win under our belts, we have to get a few wins.”
St George Illawarra Dragons
R17 Position: 7th (18 points, -10)
Run home: Sea Eagles, Titans, Rabbitohs, Raiders, Panthers, Roosters, Cowboys, Rabbitohs
Injuries: Apart from Cam McInnes, the Dragons are fully fit.
Big question: Will the Covid breaches end their finals hopes? They were on track for a shock finals berth before Paul Vaughan’s barbecue. How Anthony Griffin manages the remaining Covid-19 bans will define or destroy their season.
Cronulla Sharks
R17 position: 8th (16 points, -44)
Run home: Raiders, Bulldogs, Sea Eagles, Warriors, Knights, Tigers, Broncos, Storm
Injuries: Wade Graham’s return is uncertain as he manages his concussion issues but Matt Moylan is expected to make his comeback from a calf injury in the coming weeks.
Big question: Can we trust the Sharks? Josh Hannay has done a wonderful job to rebuild Cronulla’s confidence after the messy split with John Morris. With a nice run home, the finals are there for Cronulla if they’re good enough but consistency has eluded them.
Newcastle Knights
R17 position: 9th (16 points, -93)
Run home: Storm, Roosters, Raiders, Broncos, Sharks, Bulldogs, Titans, Broncos
Injuries: With Daniel Saifiti and Tyson Frizell returning this weekend and Bradman Best set for a comeback in a week or two, the Knights aren’t far away from being fully loaded.
Big question: Do they have a run in them? Melbourne might be a tall order for the Knights but after that they are capable of winning all seven remaining seven matches. Coach Adam O’Brien has blasted the side in the past for being “entitled” despite not having achieved much. This is their chance to prove themselves.
Gold Coast Titans
R17 position: 10th (14 points, -56)
Run home: Eels, Dragons, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Storm, Knights, Warriors
Injuries: The Titans have a clean bill of health.
Big question: Which Titans are we going to get? No team in the NRL moves between the penthouse and the outhouse as fast as Gold Coast. Playing the rest of the season in Queensland will help, but the issues might run deeper for Justin Holbrook’s side.
Canberra Raiders
R17 position: 10th (14 points, -90)
Run home: Sharks, Eels, Knights, Dragons, Storm, Sea Eagles, Warriors, Roosters
Injuries: Elliott Whitehead (shoulder) and Dunamis Lui (calf) should return against Parramatta while Corey Horsburgh (wrist) and Bailey Simonsson (toe) are tipped to be back for the final four games.
Big question: Can they become the Raiders we know? The Green Machine are easily the most disappointing team in the NRL and have battled internal turmoil for months. But they still have the talent to make the finals and their draw isn’t the worst.
North Queensland Cowboys
R17 position: 11th (14 points, -187)
Run home: Roosters, Storm, Broncos, Titans, Tigers, Eels, Dragons, Sea Eagles
Injuries: Valentine Holmes’s shoulder injury is still being assessed but a lack of depth in key positions means his health will be vital to North Queensland’s finals hopes.
Big question: Can they stop the points? Todd Payten’s side can rack up tries with the best of them, especially when Jason Taumalolo is on the field, but they’ve kept their opposition to less than 24 points only twice all season. Keeping their home games to finish the season will help, but they need to shore up their defensive line.
NZ Warriors
R17 position: 13th (12 points, -79)
Run home: Panthers, Rabbitohs, Tigers, Sharks, Bulldogs, Broncos, Raiders, Titans
Injuries: Tohu Harris (shoulder) is a chance of playing this weekend but Chad Townsend (shoulder) and Chanel Harris-Tavita (pectoral) are still a week or two away.
Big question: How much is too much for the Warriors to bear? After being forced into another relocation and with Harris, the club’s most important forward, battling injury, the Warriors are under pressure. Their return home has again been postponed, and with the side struggling for game management from their halves over the past few weeks, it would take a serious turnaround for Nathan Brown’s side to make the finals.
Wests Tigers
R17 position: 14th (12 points, -148)
Run home: Broncos, Sea Eagles, Warriors, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Sharks, Panthers, Bulldogs
Injuries: Russell Packer, Zane Musgrove and Asu Kepaoa didn’t travel to Queensland due to injury.
Big question: Can they buck the trend? Every time they’ve had to carry even the slightest weight of expectation this season, they’ve fallen apart and their performances in their recent losses to Melbourne and South Sydney were among the worst in the club’s history. But they can still make the finals – mathematically, at least – and their draw is relatively kind.
Brisbane Broncos
R17 position: 15th (10 points, -242)
Run home: Tigers, Panthers, Cowboys, Knights, Roosters, Warriors, Sharks, Knights
Injuries: Albert Kelly (hamstring) is a week away from returning and Tevita Pangai Jnr (suspension) can be back from Round 20 if he doesn’t make a mid-season switch to another club.
Big question: Can they pull off a miracle? They’ve only won four games all year and their points differential is atrocious. But as putrid as Brisbane have been on the road this year, they’re not so bad at home – a 3-4 record at Suncorp – and they likely won’t leave Queensland again this year.
JOHNS: STORM WILL WEATHER TEST, BUT HOW ABOUT THE REST?
—Matty Johns
How well the 12 teams who have entered the southeast Queensland bubble can adjust and adapt to this challenge will define the success or failure of their end of season.
You get the feeling these teams will not be returning home until their seasons conclude.
The Melbourne Storm, when entering their Sunshine Coast bubble last year, were told they’d be there for eight to 12 days. They remained until after their grand final victory.
The Storm turned the challenge into a key element of their success, the team became closer, their focus narrowed. And they excelled because … well because they are the Melbourne Storm! No team has the ability to quickly adjust to a challenge like Melbourne.
The 12 teams who now face the same challenge are about to find out a lot more about themselves.
It will test camaraderie, living in each other’s faces, all day, every day.
It will get very hard to escape football.
Some players will love it, it will suffocate others.
But it’s a massive challenge for the coaches as well, many of whom have control issues.
They sit in front of a TV, over-analysing their players and their opponents for hours upon hours every day, they get lost in the detail.
These coaches bombard their players with information, most of which is unnecessary and not useful.
For the coaches suffering this affliction, the bubble could be disastrous for both them and their team.
Cameron Smith told me that last season the Melbourne Storm put in place clearly defined lines of when to focus on football and when to return to normality.
– No coach talk at dinner.
– No late night pep talks
– No sudden video or training sessions.
If players wanted to do extra training, fine, but it was by no means imposed upon them.
Craig Bellamy’s discipline meant this rule was never threatened.
Unfortunately some coaches just won’t be able to help themselves.
CLUB-BY-CLUB HEALTH CHECK
As the run home starts, let’s go team by team, check their run home, their form and if they are likely to be still wearing their boots into September.
MELBOURNE STORM
If this was a health check, the doctor would be in no need of anything but a very quick blood pressure test, a pat on the back and a “see you in October.”
You can’t control injuries and that’s the only thing standing between them and grand final day.
PENRITH
Speaking of injuries. Along with the Storm, this is Penrith’s greatest challenge.
In the last year and a half they’ve had a good run, but suddenly Nathan Cleary suffers a major shoulder injury and Jarome Luai a knee.
Penrith’s run home is pretty good, and in a couple of weeks they have a huge game against Melbourne which, fully fit, would have had a lot of importance in terms of the minor premiership. But if I’m coach Ivan Cleary, I’m just happy with top four. If they have their A-team on the paddock it’s them and Storm and a bit of daylight.
SOUTHS
Their position and opposition in the next few weeks assures them a top-four spot.
Souths are second to none in terms of attack, particularly when their forwards assume dominance.
Their issue is holding it all together when momentum is with the opposition.
Against Melbourne and Penrith they were placed under immediate pressure and points wise, they bled badly.
For Souths it’s not about attack, it’s all about defence and absorbing adversity.
Latrell Mitchell, coming out of an Origin Series where he’s been in career-best touch, gives Souths an x-factor.
PARRAMATTA
Brad Arthur has done an excellent job, but he’s under pressure to take this team to a grand final. The Eels’ premiership window is slowly closing.
Parramatta have a tough run home. The Roosters, who sit in fifth, will be targeting the Eels’ top-four position.
In previous campaigns Parramatta have faded from this point. Watch this space.
THE ROOSTERS
A few things are happening at the Roosters. One is a generational handover which has been brought about largely by injury.
When this occurs your team has a number of very young players and a number of veterans, and only a few in their career sweet spot.
It’s been a tough month for the Roosters, but their run home is fair.
In terms of a top-four position, their Round 20 clash with the Eels is huge.
They are under the pump but have a great winning culture, a top-four finish, given what they’ve endured this season, would be enormous.
SEA EAGLES
Very, very dangerous team.
OK, let’s state the obvious. They have a dramatic over-reliance on Tom Trbojevic, which always has their season on a knife’s edge, but with Tom they will worry every single side.
Their run home is very good but they will need to win close to every game to snare the top four.
Regardless, with Tom they can cause damage from any top-eight spot.
DRAGONS
Things were going so well for the Dragons.
The “party” has put their season at risk. Two things can occur, they pull tight and use it to defy the odds, or, they allow it to swallow them.
This game against Manly on Friday night is huge. They need to get back on the horse as quickly as possible.
This next two weeks will define their season.
SHARKS
The Sharks have crept up the ladder silently, winning five of their last six.
Shaun Johnson has been instrumental in their rise.
Their run home is very good, if they can hold form, they’ll definitely play finals.
Credit to Josh Hannay for the job he’s done after the John Morris fiasco.
KNIGHTS
The Knights have a terrific pack but without Mitchell Pearce and Kalyn Ponga, they were rudderless.
Keeping Ponga on the field is almost as important for Newcastle as Tom Trbojevic is for Manly.
They have the Storm on Saturday night, the Roosters the week after and then a great run home.
If they can win one of these next two, expect them to make the eight.
TITANS
The Titans’ middle season has been horrible. The Raiders victory however, may signal a late-season surge.
When the Titans get rolling, they attack very well, but struggle to absorb any pressure.
Cronulla and Newcastle, who sit above them, have good runs home, so the Titans need to get going. Friday night’s match against Parramatta has enormous importance.
RAIDERS
They simplified their game last week by centralising their attack and wearing Manly down, bit by bit.
The Raiders have been the competition’s biggest disappointment, but teams see them as dangerous.
Their run home is OK but they’re at the mercy of sides above. Can’t see them in the finals.
COWBOYS
The Cowboys’ season has had its moments, but overall they’ve been average at best.
Their last month has been terrible.
The next two weeks will extinguish their top-eight hopes.
WARRIORS
It’s the season that could’ve been. They’ve lost a lot of matches narrowly. They are building a strong squad for 2022.
I think they’ll finish off the season well, which will make them rue the close losses even more.
TIGERS
Teams who rely on talent always disappoint.
The Tigers’ recent defensive efforts tell the story of their predicament and ladder position.
BRONCOS
There are signs that the Broncos have finally pushed off rock bottom after one of the worst periods that I can remember from any club, let alone the Broncos.
Their run home is OK, although all their opponents will have them pencilled in as a win.
Three wins from here will be an encouraging finish which I think is achievable.
BULLDOGS
Next year can’t come quick enough for the Bulldogs, who have gone backwards.
It’s all about 2022 which must include Trent Barrett rebuilding the confidence of his young playmaker Kyle Flanagan.
I thought it was unfair for Kyle to be dragged off and then axed earlier in the season.
Naturally, his confidence is low, but he remains an important player for the club.
MATTY’S TOP 8
MELBOURNE
PENRITH
SOUTH SYDNEY
PARRAMATTA
MANLY
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
NEWCASTLE
CRONULLA
WHY RELOCATION COULD TIP MADGE (AND OTHERS) OVER THE EDGE
—Paul Crawley
Right or wrong, Michael Maguire has become the NRL’s poster boy for tough love.
So just imagine what might have been going through his mind as the Wests Tigers coach packed his bags for the trip to Queensland on Wednesday.
Especially after Maguire apparently upset some players after their recent loss to South Sydney.
The story goes “quite a few of the players had their noses out of joint” after Madge said at the post match media conference, “I need to find men that are going to be accountable”.
Now they all get to live in each other’s pockets for potentially the rest of the season depending on how NSW’s Covid crisis develops.
I get the feeling this will really sort the NRL’s men out from the boys – determined by who are prepared to face this unexpected challenge head-on with the right focus.
And not just at the Tigers.
Never before has our game encountered a period like this, where 12 teams have been forced to literally move states for who knows how long. Maybe just a month, but potentially right through to the grand final.
What we know for certain is for the next two weeks all relocated teams will be locked up in their hotels outside of playing and training for the initial quarantine period.
And that really does have the potential to bring them together … or tear them apart.
After that they will be free to rejoin their families and go about life in Queensland’s winter sunshine like any other citizen, all while living in a luxury resort.
Which could be an issue in itself.
It would be a scary thought for some coaches if this relocation exercise does end up stretching longer than planned.
Imagine trying to keep a lid on festivities for those that fall out of finals contention early.
It’s a recipe for disaster that will be determined by individuals and how they respond to the challenge.
Which is why the story yet to unfold at the Tigers will be just as fascinating to watch as their warts-and-all documentary that starts airing on Fox Sports next week.
I admire the Tigers for allowing such unfiltered access to provide an unscripted insight into what really goes on behind closed doors at a professional footy club.
But from the small snapshots we’ve seen so far, I wonder if it will do Maguire’s image justice, or mount even further pressure on his methods.
Because, right now, there is just no denying Maguire’s head coaching career really is at the crossroads.
Of course, his security will depend largely on performances over the next month, and how much responsibility the players take for their results, starting with Sunday’s almost critical clash against the Broncos.
Meanwhile, there is also this public perception of Maguire that just continues to take on a life of its own.
How quickly the tough guy image has changed for being a positive to a negative.
I vividly remember standing on Redfern Oval the day after Souths won the comp in 2014 - and at the time Maguire was being talked up as the game’s next super coach.
That day the Rabbitohs fans were lined up around the block to be part of the drought-breaking premiership celebrations. If Sam Burgess was their brave super hero, ‘Madge’ was the messiah.
And as the players stood there lapping up the adulation, I clearly remember watching Maguire in the background, standing by himself but wearing this brilliant look of complete satisfaction.
It was as though he was thinking to himself this was his personal reward - for all those long hours, hard work and sacrifices.
Maguire’s ruthless and relentless pursuit of excellence was one of the big storylines from the moment he arrived from Wigan. His hard-nosed and uncompromising character was, from the very first day, seen as the reason everyone thought he was destined for coaching greatness.
Shane Richardson was the Rabbitohs chief executive back then and Richo (who had already seen and done it all as an administrator by that point) was happy to tell anyone that Maguire would have a job at the club for “as long as he wants”.
“He is like a Wayne Bennett or a Craig Bellamy because he is always reinventing himself and going to the next level,” Richardson said.
Fast forward seven years and the irony is the ‘knock’ on him now is exactly what he was being praised for during those days at Souths.
Many would say it’s just another case of player power at its worst – at a joint where those players haven’t been good enough to make the finals since 2011, prompting five coaching changes in seven seasons.
Nevertheless, the growing perception is Maguire is just too tough for his own good.
Yet it’s just one of the subplots we will see unfold over the coming weeks of life in the bubble, as stories keep filtering out of some clubs about the anticipated difficulties, just as the season approaches its pointy end.
Who ends up finishing where in the top eight, and just as importantly who misses out, will be determined by how they adapt to change so suddenly forced upon them.
Any fracture from within is sure to be magnified under their new environment.
So much will boil down to how the players and their masters handle life in such close quarters, the potential distraction of resort lifestyle, some having their families nearby and others leaving them behind, and generally having nowhere to escape from each other.
It’s not new, of course.
Last year Melbourne had to pack up at a minute’s notice and head off to the Sunshine Coast where it was initially expected it would only be for a number of days, though ended up being for months.
Yet you never heard the Storm complain, and it never stopped them delivering on one of the club’s finest triumphs.
Now it is Penrith’s turn to see how they handle the challenge.
Such a young squad with so much energy and obvious camaraderie, you get the feeling this could even take them to the next level.
I also expect Bennett would be smiling in anticipation during what might be his last stand as head coach.
Just imagine if the stars align in the coming months and the NRL stages an historical first ever grand final at Suncorp - and Bennett’s Bunnies are running out on the Broncos’ home, three years after they sent him packing?
Hollywood couldn’t write a greater script.
Or will it be Des Hasler’s shot at redemption after all the sly digs he’s copped since it went pear-shaped at Canterbury?
The way Tommy Trbojevic has brought the Sea Eagles back to life, anything’s possible.
The Eels are the other live threat but do they have another gear to go with the top teams?
The Roosters have been nothing but brave this season but are also coming to a stage where it could go either way after what we saw last round where the really struggled to put the Bulldogs to bed.
Have the Dragons already cost themselves a finals spot, or can they fire back and repay their fans with the form they opened the season playing?
The Knights are finally getting some players back and if Kalyn Ponga and Mitch Pearce stay healthy, life away from the parochial Newcastle environment and a restocked roster might be perfect for them.
The Sharks have already shown exceptional resolve this season considering all they’ve countered so there’s nothing to say they can’t finish top eight.
The Warriors would need a dramatic turnaround but they’re the most experienced in life away from home of all clubs – and showed plenty of ticker in the second half of last season.
Could the Titans, who like the Broncos and Cowboys, retain life as usual while their opponents go into their hubs, use this big advantage of playing and training at home and sneak into the finals for only the second time since 2010?
Maybe we saw the light turn on for Ricky Stuart when Josh Hodgson produced his best of the season in the win over a Turbo-less Manly last week.
Ricky and Hodgson have had their moments this year, that’s no secret. But they’re both good blokes who enjoy a good time and the camp environment could be the making of the Raiders’ revival.
Personalities, solidarity under pressure, the ability to shift focus and adapt to new surroundings, senior player leadership, Covid-responsibility (the league public is on edge waiting for another indiscretion) all take on new weight for the next month or more.
As Madge told his players, it’s time for everyone to be accountable.
They may be shut off from public view and interaction. But there’s nowhere to hide.
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