Matty Johns: The tactics and tacticians that will determine the 2020 NRL elimination finals
Can the tired, old Roosters shut down a Raiders outfit keen for revenge? Is there any Parramatta game plan that can end the run of Walker and his Rabbitohs? Matty Johns has the answers you seek.
Opinion
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FRIDAY NIGHT: ROOSTERS V RAIDERS
There’s still a pulse
I’m surprised how many people seem to be closing the casket on the Roosters’ season.
Sure, their legs looked a little tired last Friday night but after a terrific opening, they were basically under the pump for most of the contest against a young Penrith side who were relentless in the way they attacked.
The Panthers, for a 25-minute period going into halftime, played with incredible
energy and never let the Roosters draw breath.
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Yet the Roosters nearly pulled off a victory, and that was without Jake Friend driving the midfield, and on Penrith’s home turf.
But there’s no doubt the biggest factor surrounding the Roosters this week, and ongoing, is the amount of petrol left in the tank.
The Raiders’ attack, like Penrith’s, operates at high speed and the Roosters will need to be energised to keep pace defensively, and then put together an attacking threat of their own.
WILLIAMS AND WIGHTON
Heading into this season, a major contributing factor to the Raiders’ success was going to be how well George Williams and Jack Wighton formed combination.
This got even more crucial when they lost Josh Hodgson with the ACL tear.
Their combination has developed to one of the very best in the competition, with George more the organiser, Jack the reactor.
It’s not a traditional combination, in that they are both a run first, pass second duo, but the rule adjustments which has accelerated the game suits this type of footballer.
Having said that, Wighton is developing subtlety in his playmaking, which has added another dimension to his power-based game.
George and Jack’s centrefield threat will pose a problem for the Roosters. How well they can reduce their impact will be primary in whose season continues.
LUKE KEARY
On the topic of halves, Luke Keary needs a dominant performance.
Luke was very strong early, against Penrith, with his ball playing direct and decisive.
Naturally as Penrith’s middle forwards started to assert dominance, Keary’s impact
When I say Luke needs a dominant performance, he needs to assert more dominance over his team, and be more dominant in his combination with youngster, Kyle Flanagan.
The modern halves combinations tend to share the field and share the quality possession, but if I was Trent Robinson I’d be getting Luke to take control of the full field and not just nail himself down on the left.
Flanagan will be targeted in defence by the Raiders, and it’s very hard at this level for young halves to be high on the tackle count and be able to have a major impact with the football.
Keary has the big game experience, he has to own the team.
WHO WINS?
Last week I found it very hard to separate the young Panthers and the experienced
defending Premiers, this is no easier.
Here’s the thing, and just go with me for a second.
Who do I think is more likely to win the competition?
The Raiders.
The Roosters have had to fight hard all season and I don’t think they have the gas to win Friday night, and then back up and beat Melbourne, and then back up and win on grand final day.
However, I’m leaning towards them having enough in the legs and lungs to win this game.
Tip: Roosters by a fraction.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHS v PARRAMATTA
It’s all about style.
Parramatta will not win a fast, open contest.
I spoke last week about Newcastle having to dictate the terms of the game, so as to slow the tempo, drive the ball into touch and do everything to break the Bunnies’ rhythm.
The Knights were blown off course by their own fast start.
At 14-0 up, Newcastle lost control of the tempo, believing they could beat Souths at their own game.
Souths blew them off the park. Parramatta could lead 20-0, but if the Bunnies take control of the game, they’ll rattle up enough points to again win in a canter.
This is Mitchell Moses’ greatest challenge, to halt Souths’ momentum and rhythm through smart kicking, and turn the game into a tough, grinding battle.
Force them sideways
Souths can score points better and quicker than anyone, attack isn’t going to be a problem if their forwards, at the very least, hold their own.
A good defensive performance is imperative for the Rabbits.
When talking about styles, Parramatta play their best football through the middle field, when the Eels struggle for momentum they are forced sideways, and this dramatically reduces the impact of their spine.
If Souths go into this game with a focus on winning through a strong defence, points will look after themselves, and they’ll progress.
KEEP PUNCHING
Mike Tyson has a quote, “Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth.”
Last week against Melbourne, Parramatta started brilliantly, they had a plan, and were executing it perfectly.
But then the Storm started punching back…….
Melbourne absorb pressure better than almost every team, and then they start to counter.
When they did this last week, for a period it pushed Parramatta back into their shells.
If the Eels go into their shells this week, the scoreboard attendant will get RSI.
Who wins?
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In my opinion, it has to be Souths. The Rabbitohs have found a blueprint which they have total confidence in, while Parramatta are still searching, particularly in these high pressure, end of season games.
Parramatta have lost key men, while others are battling with injury. Souths key men are flying.
Cody Walker is currently the game’s best player, while Cook is finding his best and Adam Reynolds is as composed as I’ve seen him.
Tip: The Bunnies.