Matty Johns previews the NRL semi-finals between Panthers-Sharks and Rabbitohs-Dragons
IT is squeaky bum time in the NRL finals, when fine margins lead to big results. MATTY JOHNS runs his eye over this weekend’s blockbuster semi-finals and puts his neck on the line to call the winners.
Opinion
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IT is squeaky bum time in the NRL finals, when fine margins lead to big results. MATTY JOHNS runs his eye over this weekend’s blockbuster semi-finals and puts his neck on the line for the winners.
PANTHERS V SHARKS
LAST WEEK’S PERFORMANCE
It’s now two wins in a row for Penrith as they continue to rebound from a long stretch of ordinary form.
Penrith’s round 25 win over Melbourne had people unconvinced, given the number of stars the Storm had on the sideline, but last Saturday’s 27-12 victory over the Warriors was a return to their early-season football.
The Sharks on the other hand, successfully dragged the Roosters into a midfield arm-wrestle, losing 21-12. It’s a fair comment to say it was a game they very easily could have won had their execution been better, bombing three clear-cut tries.
LISTEN! Nick Campton and Tim Williams preview each of the finals match ups for this weekend and review the hell out of a couple more teams.
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It’s hard to run a rule over which performance was best.
While Penrith won convincingly, the Warriors’ football fell to pieces once momentum shifted and suffering the loss of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck.
The Sharks/Roosters clash was a long, sustained yardage battle with execution, with Cooper Cronk’s kicking game eventually proving the difference.
PLAYING WITHOUT WADE
Wade Graham is a huge loss for Cronulla. They’ll miss his experience, they’ll miss his toughness, his decision-making in defence and, of course, his creativity in attack.
It puts a lot of pressure on Matt Moylan. On the Sharks’ left, Moylan shared the creative duties with Graham, and they were forming a nice combination.
Moylan likes to float across a defence line, while Graham plays very direct and looks to play through a defence.
Moylan could throw Graham an early pass and rely on the backrower to create an opportunity even when nothing appeared, the trait of a clever old-school playmaker.
Graham was also the defence chief on that left side. He recognises the opposition’s attacking shapes better than almost anyone in the game and, more importantly, would help protect Moylan defensively.
WHO WINS?
Very, very tight but I’m going for Penrith and it’s the loss of Wade Graham that has swung me to the Panthers.
I expect James Maloney to once again have a huge impact, particularly against his old coach Shane Flanagan.
Valentine Holmes will present a huge danger to the Penrith middle defenders with his infield darts and popping up on clever little inside passes from Luke Lewis.
But I just feel Penrith have generated enough momentum and confidence in the past fortnight to get a win.
Tip: Penrith by 2.
DRAGONS V SOUTHS
LAST WEEK’S PERFORMANCE
Firstly Souths, they can and will be better.
When Melbourne enter these big end-of-season games, they shift their focus and energy to defence. Last week, the Storm exuded defensive energy in the way they moved up and got numbers in tackles.
Souths, rather than move the football, got a little bogged down in centrefield and tried to win the physical battle.
I can understand why — the conditions were a little slippery and that often leads to more conservative football.
Bottom line is, when the Bunnies did move the ball around, it opened up the tight middle-field and they created opportunities.
Trying to simply power through Melbourne led to errors and frustration. They were good in the 29-28 loss, but I expect them to be better on Saturday night.
St George-Illawarra were phenomenal in their 48-18 win against the Broncos last Sunday. The Dragons returned to the style of football that, just before the mid-season, had them as competition favourites.
The Dragons’ early-season style involved lots of ball movement, often sideline to sideline, they took some risks, they enjoyed their football and it energised them.
But then came the post-Origin losses. Suddenly the focus seemed to turn to completions, they played more conservatively and the negativity took over the enjoyment.
But last Sunday, with their season on the line and no one giving them much of a chance, they allowed themselves to risk, the ball moved around, the enjoyment returned and so did the Dragons of March, April, May.
PLAYING WITHOUT WIDDOP
So can they play the same without their playmaker Gareth Widdop?
They have to try because there’s no returning. If they try to beat Souths playing a more conservative, power-based game, they lose.
They have to go for it and they will. Expect the Dragons to play with the same fearlessness because, while I won’t go so far as to say they have nothing to lose, the pressure is off.
This game is a big test of Souths’ mental toughness. The Dragons will attack them with an underdog mentality. They’ll bustle Souths, they’ll take chances, they’ll be physical and energised.
Souths need to be exactly the same. You don’t win finals playing tentatively, you win by playing confident, aggressive football.
Souths can’t be conservative. They need to move the football around to create opportunities and to loosen the Dragons’ middle-field defence.
WHO WINS?
The loss of Widdop is huge for the Dragons, but I come back to my original point: Souths can be better than last week, and they will be.
The Broncos’ defence was extremely passive last Sunday and allowed the Dragons time and space to do whatever they wished. Souths won’t make the same mistake.
Tip: Souths by 8.
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