Matty Johns analyses week one of the NRL finals to find what could change the game
WEEK one of the NRL finals and no team is a certainty. Let’s go game by game and talk about the players and tactics that will decide each contest, writes MATTY JOHNS.
Opinion
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WEEK one of the finals and I see no certainty. Most will point to the Broncos v Dragons as pretty clear cut but I expect the Dragons to really lift, particularly with Gareth Widdop returning.
Let’s go game by game and talk about the crucial thing that will decide each contest.
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STORM VS RABBITOHS
Can Melbourne contain Cook? Can Souths stop Smith?
It’s all about the battle in the middle.
In round 21 Melbourne lost the yardage battle and Damien Cook tormented them with his explosions out of dummy half.
Melbourne will have worked very hard in the build up on to controlling Souths’ play-the-ball speed. If Souths try to play exclusively through the middle they’ll struggle to get momentum.
The Bunnies play their best when they are willing to play the edges, and at times sideline to sideline as it opens up the midfield for the Burgess trio and gets Cook the fast play the ball he relishes.
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Containing Cameron Smith is more complex. Smith will play out of dummy half, he’ll play first receiver and on their sideline to sideline shifts, he’ll pop up in the second receiver role.
No player feels and controls a contest better than Cameron Smith and these big games are his domain.
Souths will need to be dominant in their defensive tackles so their marker formation is set.
When Smith starts getting out of dummy half consistently, it’s a sign that the Storm are dominating the yardage battle and the opposition are in big trouble.
PANTHERS VS WARRIOIRS
Can the Warriors find the right balance?
I really like the Warriors in this, they have more attacking options, but finding the right balance can be tricky for the Kiwis.
Sometimes they look to play a more structured game, as to get some control in their football, but it’s not them at their best. The more structured their attack, the more predictable it is.
The Warriors come to life when the offloads start and they play a fast, reactive style of football.
Admittedly this style does produce more errors and that’s what I mean by finding the balance in their attack.
You don’t win finals by playing off-the-cuff for 80 minutes, but you don’t win by playing solely in the straitjacket of structured football.
The key is to be able to jump in and out of your structure, and that’s why I’m excited about the return of Blake Green because he and Shaun Johnson form a beautiful combination.
Green keeps the team to the game plan, while Johnson prowls the field, watching, reacting and igniting the attack from offloads and broken play. When that sequence ends, Green puts the team back on the rails.
If the Warriors “find the balance”, they win.
ROOSTERS VS SHARKS
Can Cooper Cronk break Wade Graham’s shackles?
Cooper Cronk’s the crucial man for the Roosters. While other players like Luke Keary, may figure in attacking sequences, Cronk starts it all. He talks the attack into position and takes the first creative possession, if the play works, the sequence is off and running.
If Cooper starts putting his option runners through gaps regularly then the Sharks are cooked.
But no defender in rugby league gives Cronk more headaches than Wade Graham
Wade rushes Cooper from the inside, the outside, he denies him time and space.
Wade’s a clever playmaker himself and that allows him to read Cooper’s plays and his movements.
This is the crucial battle.
If Wade starts picking Cooper off, the ability of the Roosters’ 7 to find a Plan B will be one of the biggest determining factors in defeat or victory.
BRONCOS VS DRAGONS
Can Widdop elevate the Dragons? Can Milford manage a tight one?
The return of Gareth Widdop is huge for the Dragons, he’ll lift them, it’s just a matter of how much.
Importantly he will relax Ben Hunt. Hunt can now focus on tormenting the Broncos’ middle defence with his running, rather than worry about having to control the team, find the right kick and own the result.
Anthony Milford’s form has been superb and it’s all about his running game. The Dragons need to make Milford work hard defensively, they can’t just play the middle, they have to present a sideways threat and keep Milford and Nikorema making tackles and making defensive decisions.
Finals football is a real test for the Broncos’ halves ability to make the right plays at the right time. In other words managing a result in a tight contest.
In the past it’s something they’ve struggled with. For the Broncos to make a run through to late September they’ll have needed to find substantial improvement in this area.
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