NRL top 8 predictions for 2024: Which teams will and won’t remain in finals contention

We analysed the bottom nine, but now it’s time to predict which teams in the top eight will be great again, and who is in danger of slipping out of NRL finals contention in 2024.

Can the 2023 top 8 teams stay in the NRL Promised Land?

We’ve analysed the bottom nine and predicted that Parramatta, South Sydney and Manly will all be top-eight sides in 2024 but who makes way to accommodate them?

Some teams from the 2023 top eight are destined for success and to be great again but there’s question marks on others and whether they can improve or maintain their spot in the playoffs.

Will the top eight be great again?

WILL BE GREAT IN 2024

PANTHERS

How they got here

They’ve been the best team in the NRL for the past four seasons now, and three of those have resulted in premierships. Smart development, good coaching and a little bit of magic have combined to make Penrith one of the most dominant teams in NRL history.

Why they’ll be great again

There’s no safer bet in the game. They’re young enough that this era of dominance can last for a while yet, and although they’ve lost Stephen Crichton and Spencer Leniu, they have shown how quickly replacements adapt to their systems.

Key issues

They have proved beyond doubt that the pressure of being the NRL champs has zero impact on their success. The biggest issue they have is keeping the group together into the future.

Speculation over Jarome Luai’s future will swirl around the team until his contract is sorted, which could be a while yet.

BRONCOS

How they got here

This was their best season in a long time and they came so close to ending a 17-year premiership drought thanks to a killer roster. Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh announced themselves among the game’s elite which put the cherry on top for experienced contributors Payne Haas, Pat Carrigan and Adam Reynolds.

Why they’ll be great again

After years of development work and good recruitment, they finally have the bones of a team that can be successful well into the decade. They’ve hit the premiership sweet spot where their young stars are now experienced enough to go again, but still have enough years left in them that there’s time to develop further too.

Key issues

Losing Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler isn’t ideal, but it won’t break the team either.

The biggest issue will be getting up for another season and staying consistent after a massive 2023, and sealing the deal on the biggest day of the year.

STORM

How they got here

Melbourne are always thereabouts in the premiership race and 2023 was no different.

They had a few hurdles throughout the year with injuries and form as well as big losses to Penrith, Brisbane and North Queensland, but managed to resurrect themselves in time for a title race.

Why they’ll be great again

As long as Craig Bellamy is in charge and Cameron Munster is running around, Melbourne will be great. A top-four finish is normal and expected. Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant were all vital to success in 2023, but they didn’t live up to their own high expectations for the year, and can be better again next season.

Key issues

Ryan Papenhuyzen’s future at the club will be a talking point this season as he makes his way back from another injury setback. Hearts broke for the superstar fullback when he suffered an ankle injury just three games into his return to the NRL from a long layoff. With Nick Meaney doing a great job at fullback, Storm will need to reckon with the delicate situation of balancing the roster and salary cap to ensure it’s working for the team.

WARRIORS

How they got here

Fans hoped, but no one could have possibly expected the Warriors would have such a glow up in 2023. Coach of the year Andrew Webster did a complete renovation on the side with very minimal personnel changes, and took them from also-rans to top four title contenders within just one season. They racked up wins early, but big victories over Newcastle, Cronulla and Parramatta put the competition on notice.

Why they’ll be great again

Adding Roger Tuivasa-Sheck into this gun side just takes them to a new level. The ex-Warriors skipper is back from a rugby union sojourn and aside from being one of the most exciting NRL players to lace on a boot, he adds another attacking threat to a team stacked with talent. The revival of Shaun Johnson also sparked their attack in 2023, but their defence was also impressive, and another season under Webster will only improve it.

Key issues

Tuivasa-Sheck’s transition into the centres could take time with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad to remain at fullback. The Warriors are also yet to prove they have the discipline and longevity to maintain a top four intensity across back-to-back seasons. The element of surprise will be gone in 2024, too.

ON THE CUSP OF GREATNESS

KNIGHTS

How they got here

It was a rocky start, but Kalyn Ponga’s form helped spark a 10-game winning streak at the end of the season to land the club’s first home final since 2006 and first finals win since 2013. They were pumped 40-10 by the Warriors in New Zealand, but overall it was the best season the Knights have had in a decade and value for money recruits like Greg Marzhew, Tyson Gamble and Jackson Hastings played well above their paypackets.

Reason to hope

This season was the best of Kalyn Ponga’s career, and if he’s blessed with an injury free run it’s exciting to think how much the Dally M winner can achieve in 2024. Hooker Jayden Brailey is also expected to feature in 2024 after missing the year with an ACL injury, while the addition of quality English recruits Kai Pearce-Paul and Will Pryce will only bolster the team’s depth.

Key issues

Losing towering winger Dom Young is massive for the Knights. The Sydney Roosters-bound star scored 25 tries in 25 games on the right edge, including one of the tries of 2023 against St George Illawarra. A magical 10-game winning streak saved their season, but they can’t leave it that late again. To take the next step into greatness, they need to deliver consistently good performances throughout the year, which is something they’ve struggled to do recently.

SHARKS

How they got here

They made the finals, but it was another unconvincing season for Cronulla and the second year in a row they’ve been bounced out without winning a final. As far as how they matched up against the rest of the top eight, they beat only Newcastle early and Canberra late in the season to sneak into the playoffs. A heartbreaking one-point loss to the Sydney Roosters in the elimination final ended their season with a feeling they’d underachieved. Again.

Reason to hope

With a good coach and a lot of talent, there’s always reason to hope things will improve for the Sharks in 2024. There’s brilliance there with Nicho Hynes, he just needs more support around him to help him settle.

Key issues

Hynes needs help in the halves and they haven’t yet found the right way or player to support him, and there’s no movement in the roster. The star half was criticised for his inconsistent form in 2023, and leading into 2024, the club needs to find a way to get the best out of him considering his significance in the salary cap. The Sharks went from second in 2022 to sixth this year and the lack of improvement is worrying.

ROOSTERS

How they got here

It was a mixed up season for the Roosters who couldn’t quite get themselves on track until the very end. They were 14th in round 20 but a bit of luck and a six-game winning streak, including a heart-stopping final against the Sharks, got them into the semi-finals – as unlikely as it seemed two months earlier.

Reason to hope

This season was very out of character for the Roosters and they came dangerously close to missing the finals for the first time since 2016. It will be just the scare they needed to take it to a new level in 2024, and new recruits Dom Young and Spencer Leniu will add new excitement to the squad.

Key issues

James Tedesco faced ongoing questions about his form throughout the season before turning it on at the backend of the year. The Australia and NSW captain will again be in the spotlight if he doesn’t start fast, and questions over who is the better fullback at the club - Tedesco or Joey Manu - will continue. Stability in the halves is another issue in desperate need of fixing.

RAIDERS

How they got here

They left it to fate to make the finals after a disappointing season, in which their biggest win was a 12-point victory over the Bulldogs. They won only two games in their last seven and other results went their way to land them in the top eight in the most thoroughly unconvincing way.

Reason to hope

They were typically gritty in 2023 and with a bit more polish could have played their way into week two of the finals. The ongoing development of Hudson Young, Corey Horsburgh, Matt Timoko and even Ethan Strange marks the emergence of a new generation.

Key issues

The loss of Jack Wighton leaves a huge hole in the Raiders’ attack that is yet to be filled.

There’s a serious lack of depth in the halves and Jamal Fogarty desperately needs a hand to steer the team around. New signing Kaeo Weekes from Manly could be the answer for the Raiders.