NRL premiership betting 2023: Punters flock toward the Dolphins, the biggest premiership outsiders

Despite being the biggest outsiders to win the premiership in their debut season, punters have flocked to the Dolphins, shockingly making them the sixth most backed team.

Nathan Cleary.

Wests Tigers have once again been ruthlessly dismissed in newly released NRL betting markets despite building a fiery international forward pack - including former Test prop David Klemmer - that club greats say won’t be bullied or intimidated.

Regarded as NRL no-hopers, Wests Tigers look ready to send out a tough and aggressive pack next season which will include Klemmer, Isaiah Papali’I, Api Koroisau, Joe Ofahengaue, Stefano Utoikamanu and possibly John Bateman and Aaron Woods.

“They are certainly a big pack and you have to have a presence when you’re out there. There are four internationals coming into the forwards. You have to win those battles upfront and lay that platform,” sad Tigers legend Garry Jack.

“You can’t win just holding your own – you’ve got to be dominant. Getting a great forward pack together sets up your club. You can’t win going sideways, put it that way. Koroisau is the key and I like Papali’i. Bateman is experienced, Klemmer is experienced.”

Wests Tigers and Newcastle are tipped to struggle again by the bookies.

Yet TAB markets for the 2023 season issued on Wednesday have Wests Tigers:

● Equal outsiders at $15 in top four betting with Newcastle and the Warriors.

● Paying $6 to reach the top eight, only in front of Newcastle ($6.50) and Dolphins ($7.50).

● Dismissed as $201 underachievers for the minor premiership alongside the Dolphins.

● Paying $23 to reach the grand final only in front of the Dolphins ($29).

● Paying $7.50 – ahead of Gold Coast ($7), Warriors ($6.50), Newcastle ($6) and Dolphins ($2.75) – for most losses.

● Dismissed as $51 longshots alongside Newcastle and the Warriors - and only ahead of Dolphins ($67) – in premiership betting.

The TAB’s Rohan Welsh warned punters against ignoring Wests Tigers’ claims next season.

“Most punters and critics had the Cowboys as bottom four last season so who’s to say the Tigers can’t produce something similar? They already look like a better team on paper, certainly in the forward pack,” Welsh said.

“Api Koroisau is the big inclusion, he could end up buy of the year, especially behind a pack headed by Dave Klemmer, who has a point to prove, and Isaiah Papali’I and potentially even John Bateman on an edge.

“There’s a lot of work to do for Tim Sheens, hence their odds, but if they can get away to a good start while some other teams’ experience a bit of a World Cup hangover, then they could surprise a few people.”

David Klemmer adds some grunt to the Tigers. Picture: NRL Photos

DOLPHINS DREAM

Unbelievably, some punters have wagered on the Dolphins to win the premiership in their inaugural season.

Coach Wayne Bennett has never experienced a season with fewer than ten wins.

“We’ve taken multiple $500 outlays and a $600 bet on them to win in their debut season,” Welsh said.

“That is the big surprise - money coming in for the Dolphins in premiership betting. TAB has them at the longest odds of $67 but only the Panthers, Roosters, Melbourne, Cowboys and Broncos are better backed to win the title so far.”

The Dolphins are also clear favourites in TAB’s ‘most losses’ betting market.

“Punters have been waiting for TAB to open two particular markets since the Dolphins were officially announced, one was to get juicy odds on them making the top eight, the other was for most losses,” Welsh said.

“The $2.75 has the Dolphins clear favourites in the most losses market with Newcastle and the Warriors priced shorter than the Tigers at this stage.

“A potential starting thirteen for the Dolphins probably looks better than a few of the teams at the lower end of the last year’s table but it’s their depth and lack of time to build cohesion that’s a concern.”

Dolphins Jarred Wallace and Tom Gilbert. (Image/Josh Woning)

PANTHERS SHOCK

Despite their two-year dominance, and being competition favourites, Penrith’s odds have eased to claim a third successive title.

“There has been a slight drift on the Panthers, who have returned to their opening price of $4. They were $3.50 after some significant outlays in the first 48 hours after the grand final triumph,” Welsh said.

“The Roosters and Storm have tightened following the release of the draw while the Eels have drifted from $9 equal third favourite to $13. Penrith remain the best backed to win again with about a quarter of the total investments on them, ahead of the Roosters and Storm with around 20 per cent.

“The worst supported sides with TAB so far have been the Warriors, narrowly from the Titans. In the mid-tier teams, Brisbane and Manly have tightened with the Raiders moving out from $21 to $26.”

Punters aren’t sure about the Panthers making it three straight. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

PARRA PUNISHED

The 2022 runners-up are seemingly friendless in betting.

“The interesting one is the cooling off of support for Parramatta across all markets following the release of the draw and their tough opening month,” Welsh said.

“Usually they’re the pre-season darlings with TAB. Canberra could be good value for the top four the way they finished last season.

“And TAB traders see plenty of upside in the Cowboys after the finals and representative experience gained by their youngsters last season. Cronulla’s consistency has also been noted in the pricing but the big three are impossible to ignore - Penrith, Roosters and Storm.”