NRL premiership betting, odds: Bookies facing $50m payout should Penrith Panthers win
The Brisbane Broncos have been shunned by punters all season but bookies now hope Kevin Walters’ side can gatecrash Penrith’s premiership party.
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Penrith is poised to inflict the biggest blow in Australian sports gambling history with bookmakers bracing for a payout of up to $50 million if the Panthers win this year’s premiership.
This masthead can reveal a hat-trick of Penrith premierships will be a monumental disaster for bookies, who are facing the greatest collective payout since the advent of legalised sports betting in Australia 30 years ago.
More than 100 of Australia’s betting organisations are on tenterhooks, hoping the Broncos, shunned by punters all season, can gatecrash Penrith’s planned party for rugby league’s first ‘Three-Peat’ in four decades.
Not since Parramatta’s golden years of 1981-83 has a team won three consecutive rugby league titles, but Ivan Cleary’s Panthers are charging towards a dynasty that would deliver a hammer blow to bookmakers.
There has only been one week in the past three season when the Panthers haven’t been premiership favourites with the TAB — after round 11 of this season when South Sydney momentarily gained the ascendancy.
Incredibly the Rabbitohs went on to miss the finals, giving the bookies a boost.
The Panthers begin their premiership assault in Saturday night’s qualifying final against the Warriors and a hat-trick will represent a nationwide multimillion-dollar bonanza for NRL punters.
“It’s fair to say this will be the biggest payout bookies have ever faced for an NRL title if Penrith make it three in a row,” said TAB spokesman Gerard Daffy, who was at the forefront of legalised sports betting in Australia in December 1992.
“I would expect the payout nationally to be well in excess of $30 million if Penrith make it three in a row.
“In fact, I think it could be as high as $50 million.
“There’s more than 100 bookmakers now nationwide and most that I talk to are badly hooked up with Penrith and there is really no way out.
“If Penrith win the comp, it will be one of the worst results ever for bookmakers since betting was legalised in this country.”
Precise figures are not disclosed collectively by betting agenices, but Daffy says the biggest payouts, upwards of an estimated $20 million, are reserved for football World Cups and AFL premierships.
But he is adamant nothing will sting bookmakers like another Penrith premiership parade.
“If it gets down to the last two and it’s Penrith versus the Broncos in the grand final, bookies will be cheering hard for the Broncos, and that doesn’t happen very often,” Daffy said.
“Every single bookie is badly locked in with the Panthers because they took a risk on them before the season got underway.
“Penrith had lost (Api) Koroisau and (Viliame) Kikau and then they lost (Nathan) Cleary to injury for five or six weeks.
“It’s been 40 years since a team won three titles straight and it’s so difficult to maintain that form in this day and age with rules and salary caps.
“There was a feeling the Panthers might have a premiership hangover — but they haven’t missed a beat.
“Added to that, there has been no real interest in backing anybody to beat them.”
One ray of hope for bookmakers is Brisbane, who were just pipped to the minor premiership by Penrith.
The Broncos missed the finals last year by one win after a shocking collapse in the final six weeks and NRL punters gave Brisbane little hope of an emphatic resurgence to finish in the top two.
“There’s a lot of nonbelievers in the Broncos,” Daffy said.
“At this point in time, the Broncos would be a better result for us (winning the title) than the Storm, but both of those sides are still well behind Penrith.
“The Broncos going into round one were $17 to win the premiership. They were down the list some way. The Cowboys were actually well inside them at $12 and they attracted a heap more support to win the comp than the Broncos.
“As the season progressed and you had to sit up and take notice of Brisbane’s form, punters haven’t been doing that.
“There’s been no massive bets for the Broncos over the season until the last few weeks when it became obvious they were going to finish top four and potentially even win the minor premiership.
“It’s most un-Bronco-like with punters. Usually when the season gets underway, Broncos are one of our worst results. The punters didn’t want to touch them this season and those Broncos fans could rue the day.
“It would be in excess of $10 million payout if Brisbane win the premiership, but it would be a great result for us compared to what Penrith would be.”
TAB spokesman Rohan Welsh said Brisbane started the season as the best-backed team to miss the top eight.
“The jury was well and truly out on the Broncos at the start of the season,” he said.
“Reynolds and (Payne) Haas are their key men but Reece Walsh is the X-factor and TAB has him as second favourite in the Clive Churchill market at $9 behind Nathan Cleary at $4.50, such is his impact on the team and results.”
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Originally published as NRL premiership betting, odds: Bookies facing $50m payout should Penrith Panthers win
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