NRL Grand Final Panthers vs Broncos: All 34 players head-to-head

Here is why the Brisbane Broncos can/will win Sunday’s NRL grand final and end the Penrith Panthers’ hopes of a premiership three-peat.

Broncos v Panthers: Who are you picking at every position?

Here is why the Brisbane Broncos can/will win the NRL Grand Final to end the Penrith Panthers hopes of a premiership three-peat.

We have put the theory of one of rugby league’s greatest ever minds to the test.

The late Ron Massey was the hugely respected right hand man of super coach Jack Gibson - the last coaching partnership to win three consecutive titles.

And old Mass was known to use this simple process when picking who he thought would win a game of footy:

Go through the man-on-man match ups and see who comes out on top.

So while we don’t have Massey’s immense footy IQ to adjudicate these selections, after going through all 17 head-to-head battles (taking into account key statistics and general consensus of form this year), by our estimate the Broncos claim a narrow 7/6 split of the 13 starting spots, while a further 2 out of the 4 bench positions (for a 9-8 overall majority).

Of course, the Panthers’ advantage is the fact they have proven to be a champion team - not just a team of champions - who will not be overawed on the big stage.

But if the Broncos handle the occasion, there is absolutely no doubt they have the fire power to end the Panthers’ chase for NRL history - to equal Gibson’s mighty Parramatta Eels of the early 1980s.

Broncos v Panthers: Who are you picking at every position?

FULLBACK

DYLAN EDWARDS v REECE WALSH

Key 2023 stats

Edwards: 25 games, 173m, 134 tackle busts, 12 tries, 11 try assists, 10 linebreaks, 20 linebreak assist

Walsh: 118m, 21 games, 113 tackle busts, 9 tries, 29 try assist, 20 linebreaks, 40 linebreak assists

WINNER: Walsh

Crawley’s verdict: Two very different fullbacks but the perfect example of why it is so bloody difficult judging these two teams.

On one hand Edwards is the ultimate team player with a work rate and attention to detail second to none. It goes to the heart of why the Panthers have been so incredibly consistent and successful on their charge to four straight grand finals.

The flip side of that is the freakishly gifted Walsh, who can still come up with a blunder every now and then (like his intercept pass for Dallin Watene-Zelezniak last week). But the beauty of Walsh is that he can just brush it off in the blink of an eye, and go for the jugular on the very next play.

And with his supersonic speed and sublime skills, that will make the young man in the easily recognisable hot pink boots the most dangerous/targeted Bronco on Sunday night.

WINGERS

BRIAN TO’O v JESSE ARTHARS

Key stats

To’o: 22 games, 184m, 110 tackle busts, 21 tries

Arthars: 19 games, 86m, 40 tackle busts, 9 tries

WINNER: To’o

Crawley’s verdict: Arthars is a real pro and extremely underrated, but playing well enough to force Kevvie Walters to leave out veteran Corey Oats, a proven big match performer.

But To’o is the NRL’s benchmark winger for a reason. Runs like the Incredible Hulk out of yardage, while a Panthers’ high 21 tries for the season show the little big man can also deliver when opportunities come his way.

SUNIA TURUVA v SELWYN COBBO

Key stats

Turuva: 25 games, 150m, 116 tackle busts, 12 tries

Cobbo: 23 games, 136m, 109 tackle busts, 20 tries

WINNER: Cobbo

Crawley’s verdict: Two outstanding 21-year-olds blessed with all the skills. The young Fijian Turuva has been a revelation for the Panthers this season, doing his job to such a high standard that you’d think he’s been around for years.

But Cobbo is so outrageously talented, it’s no wonder he’s drawn comparisons with a young Greg Inglis. Sure, like Walsh, he can also still come up with the occasional blooper, but his uncanny ability to break open a match with a miracle play just makes him so dangerous, and that can be from absolutely anywhere on the field.

CENTRES

STEPHEN CRICHTON V KOTONI STAGGS

Key stats

Crichton: 23 games, 115m, 70 tackle busts, 14 tries

Staggs: 25 games, 107m, 73 tackle busts, 13 tries

WINNER: CRICHTON

Crawley’s verdict: If you were judging these two on pure talent Staggs probably just gets the nod on the fact he is so explosive and another of the Broncos who can rip open a game in an instant. Yet Crichton is also an exceptionally gifted athlete but another Panther whose attention to detail, work ethic and ability to ice the moment is a trademark of the machine-like system.

IZACK TAGO V HERBIE FARNWORTH

Key stats

Tago: 15 games, 141m, 53 tackle busts, 10 tries

Farnworth: 25 games, 148m, 108 tackle busts, 15 tries

WINNER: Farnworth

Crawley’s verdict: Just back from a pectoral injury, Tago recovered from a bad one-on-one miss that led to an early Justin Olam try against the Storm. But is a class player who will be a lot better for the run. And he’ll need to be up against Farnworth who has been outstanding for the Broncos all season. The tough Englishman has a huge work rate and backs himself at every opportunity.

FIVE-EIGHTH

JAROME LUAI V EZRA MAM

Key stats

Luai: 21 games, 52m, 3 tries, 16 try assists, 19 linebreak assists, 8 linebreaks

Mam: 24 games, 67m, 15 tries, 9 try assists, 10 linebreak assists, 13 linebreaks

WINNER: LUAI

Crawley’s verdict: While Luai’s easily the biggest pest in the NRL, there’s also no debate about his footballing ability. And the way he came back just four weeks after dislocating his shoulder and got through a prelim final against the Storm like it was a walk in the park also highlighted Luai’s toughness. Mam is at a different point in his career in that we know what an amazing talent he is, now it’s time to find out how he handles the big stage. It would not shock to see Mam come up with a play that breaks open Sunday night’s showdown.

HALFBACK

NATHAN CLEARY V ADAM REYNOLDS

Key stats

Cleary: 21 games, 56m, 7 tries, 24 try assists, 7 linebreaks, 23 linebreak assists

Reynolds: 22 games, 21m, 5 tries, 26 try assists, 3 linebreaks, 26 linebreak assists

WINNER: Cleary

Crawley’s verdict: This is a dead set split decision. Both are outstanding game managers with top shelf kicking games, along with a knack of coming up with the perfect play at exactly the right moment.

While the Broncos have so much strike across the park, Reynolds is the key to everything they do, with marginally more try assists and linebreak assists than Cleary this year.

But Cleary is equally crucial to the Panthers in the way that he plays with such control, discipline and never gets flustered, while his running game this year has also gone to the next level, which just wins him this vote. On top of that he hits like a backrower.

FRONT-ROW

MOSES LEOTA V THOMAS FLEGLER

Key stats

Leota: 25 games, 41 mins, 103m, 2 tries, 31 tackle busts, 15 offloads, 19 tackles

Flegler: 21 games, 44 mins, 101m, 2 tries, 34 tackle busts, 21 offloads, 20 tackles

WINNER: Leota

Crawley’s verdict: Flegler is as tough as they come and has shown he can handle the big stage atmosphere playing Origin for Queensland. But the way Leota absolutely terrorised the Parramatta pack in last year’s grand final makes him a must pick here.

JAMES FISHER-HARRIS V PAYNE HAAS

Key stats

Fisher-Harris: 22 games, 48 mins, 111m, 0 tries, 34 tackle busts, 15 offloads, 23 tackles

Haas: 22 games, 59 mins, 166m, 1 try, 95 tackle busts, 46 offloads, 23 tackles

WINNER: HAAS

Crawley’s verdict: The battle of the monster alpha males will have a huge impact on the result.

With his crazy eyes, Fisher-Harris strikes you as the bloke who wouldn’t back down to Mike Tyson, and he certainly didn’t take a backward step when big Nelson Asofa-Solomona went looking for trouble last weekend.

But you just have to look at the run where Haas took off like a centre in the win over the Warriors to know why he is just so special.

Not just a powerhouse with a huge motor, but unbelievable athleticism. The fact, at 23, Haas is already being compared to the greatest ever prop, Glenn Lazarus, says it all.

HOOKER

MITCH KENNY V BILLY WALTERS

Key stats

Kenny: 22 games, 24m, 67 mins, 0 tries, 3 try assists, 0 linebreaks, 3 linebreak assists, 34 tackles

Walters: 25 games, 39m, 51 mins, 6 tries, 3 try assists, 7 linebreaks, 6 linebreak assists, 23 tackles

WINNER: Walters

Crawley’s verdict: Two hugely underrated dummy halves who play a very different style. The no-frills Kenny has done an outstanding job taking over from Api Koroisau. Not as crafty but provides good service and does exactly the job the Panthers need from him.

But Walters has gone from a bloke many (including me) criticised as the weakest link in the Broncos’ spine, who supposedly was only in the team because his old man was the coach, to a fair dinkum strike weapon. Outstanding in last week’s prelim final where he finished with two tries.

BACK-ROW

SCOTT SORENSEN V JORDAN RIKI

Key stats

Sorensen: 22 games, 66 mins, 96m, 4 tries, 5 try assists, 8 linebreaks, 7 linebreak assists, 27 tackles

Riki: 21 games, 74 mins, 69m, 7 tries, 0 try assists, 4 linebreaks, 0 linebreak assists, 30 tackles

WINNER: RIKI

Crawley’s verdict: Sorensen has done a superb job taking over the spot vacated by Viliame Kikau. Doesn’t create quite the same fear factor but has a relentless work ethic and plenty of skill, and has a big job playing bodyguard for Luai.

In contrast Riki, 23, is seven years Sorensen’s junior, but rapidly developing into one of the game’s best edge backrowers (with 7 tries highlighting why he is another Broncos with genuine strike).

LIAM MARTIN V KURT CAPEWELL

Key stats

Martin: 17 games, 64 mins, 96m, 6 tries, 4 try assists, 8 linebreaks, 1 linebreak assists, 24 tackles

Capewell: 23 games, 76 mins, 73m, 6 tries, 5 try assists, 7 linebreaks, 6 linebreak assists, 27 tackles

WINNER: Martin

Crawley’s verdict: The former Panther Capewell has all the skills and has given the Broncos terrific service and valuable leadership.

But ask yourself this:

If Capewell and Martin were both on the opposition team, who would you least like to be going head-to-head with?

Martin is an absolute madman on the footy field, and it doesn’t matter if he is running the ball or making a tackle, he just wants to hurt the opposition. The best backrower this season by a considerable margin.

LOCK

ISAAH YEO V PAT CARRIGAN

Key stats

Yeo: 23 games, 77 mins, 112m, 4 tries, 3 try assists, 4 linebreaks, 4 linebreak assists, 35 tackles

Carrigan: 22 games, 66 mins, 124m, 2 tries, 3 try assists, 5 linebreaks, 4 linebreak assists, 29 tackles

WINNER: Carrigan

Crawley’s verdict: Another photo finish between two exceptional modern day lock forwards.

The Panthers’ co-captain is so crucial in taking pressure off Cleary, and many good judges believe for the Broncos to win it is as important to shut down Yeo as it is Cleary.

But this season Carrigan’s week-to-week form marginally overshadows that of Yeo. Tough-as-nails, hard to handle, big motor, great skills, and offers tremendous leadership. Add to that he is a Wally Lewis Medal winner for an Origin player of the series.

BENCH

JACK COGGER V TYSON SMOOTHY

WINNER: Cogger

Both Cogger and Smoothy have 12 appearances for the season and will play crucial minutes. But we’ve given Cogger the nod on the back of how he has gone to the next level in the Panthers’ system, and could be a key if anything goes wrong with Luai.

LINDSAY SMITH V BRENDAN PIAKURA

WINNER: PIAKURA

Two really exciting young forwards. Piakura provides great impact off the bench (5 linebreaks in 12 games along with two tries), while Smith is as tough as they come and is averaging 39 minutes for 85m in his 22 games this year.

SPENCER LENIU V KOBE HETHERINGTON

WINNER: LENIU

Hetherington is a rock solid footballer who can hit like a sledgehammer, while Leniu’s impact is massive off the bench for the Panthers. And you can bet this known loose cannon will be fired up more than ever playing his final game for the Panthers ahead of Leniu’s move to the Roosters.

LUKE GARNER V KEENAN PALASIA

WINNER: Palasia

Former Tiger Garner is the NRL’s luckiest man coming in to claim the spot previously owned by Zac Hosking. Palasia has played 19 games this year and ran for 146m in the win over the Warriors.