NRL Finals 2022: Can South Sydney Rabbitohs handle pressure test against Penrith Panthers?
The mere suggestion South Sydney’s decision to punt Adam Reynolds has been proven correct because they are in another preliminary final is ridiculous, writes PAUL CRAWLEY.
NRL
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Rookie halfback Lachlan Ilias has done a great job for the Rabbitohs this season, but he will be a major target for the Panthers with and without the ball in the preliminary final.
How the youngster handles the test will be crucial to the outcome of the grand-final qualifier, while Latrell Mitchell can expect a bombing blitz by Nathan Cleary.
Paul Crawley analyses the preliminary final between the Panthers and Rabbitohs.
1 WHY RABBITOHS WILL NEVER BE PROVEN RIGHT PUNTING REYNOLDS
This is absolutely no knock on young Lachlan Ilias because he’s done a tremendous job filling some giant boots.
But the mere suggestion the Rabbitohs’ decision to punt Adam Reynolds has been proven correct just because Souths are in another preliminary final is ridiculous at this point.
Last year Souths lost four regular-season games when they had Reynolds and still made the grand final without Latrell Mitchell. This year they lost 10 to finish outside the top four and need to win this week just to equal that result.
Remember, the grand final finished two tries apiece with an intercept stealing it for the Panthers. If Reynolds was still wearing a Rabbitohs jumper I’d back them to beat the Panthers this time given Latrell is playing.
In fairness to Ilias he had no influence in how any of this played out. But he is a good young player who was backed by the club to fill the role, and so far he’s done a great job for a rookie halfback.
However, he certainly doesn’t have the instinct or the vision of Reynolds at this point, and taking on Nathan Cleary and marking up opposite big Viliame Kikau in a sudden-death grand final qualifier is next level for the 22-year-old.
How Ilias handles the occasion will have a huge impact because the Panthers will go after him with and without the ball.
If Souths get through maybe we can reconsider if they made the right call punting Reynolds strictly from a salary cap perspective.
My opinion will never change that the Rabbitohs let themselves and their fans down by not doing more to make a homegrown hero a one-club legend.
It was an insult to only offer Reynolds a one-year extension, and this weekend’s result won’t change that. But it might prove in the cutthroat world of professional sport there is no longer any room for loyalty.
2 LATRELL’S ‘FERRARI’ NEEDS TO SWITCH TO 4WD
Latrell loves to talk himself up as a rugby league ‘Ferrari’, but he’d better bring the Hummer with him this weekend as well, because there will be some rough terrain coming out of Souths’ own end.
Kicking high and targeting Mitchell with swarming defence was a tactic that worked brilliantly for the Roosters in that gripping final round encounter, and no doubt Nathan Cleary will have a plan to contain the big Souths No.1 here.
The Panthers used similar tactics to perfection in last year’s grand final in Mitchell’s absence, going after Souths’ lightweight back three led then by Blake Taaffe to dominate the start to sets. We always focus on Latrell’s silky skills and all he does that leads directly to points, but how he aims up in the back field will be critical.
3 BUNNIES MUST SHUT DOWN CLEARY
The flip side of targeting Latrell is minimising the impact of Nathan Cleary’s kicking game. If you don’t take Cleary out of his comfort zone the Panthers halfback will just kick you to death. It was one of Parramatta’s critical mistakes in week one of the finals, while Queensland showed everyone how it’s done in State of Origin I this year.
While it’s easier said than done, history shows it can be. Cam Murray, Damien Cook and Jai Arrow hold the key here. Don’t forget Murray and Arrow both suffered head knocks in last year’s grand final. No coincidence the kick pressure was non-existent. But previously they did a tremendous job containing Cleary in the first finals upset.
4 WHO IS THE NRL’S BEST LOCK?
A split hair separates Isaah Yeo and Murray in the debate about who is the game’s best No.13. They both have a tremendous work ethic backed up by wonderful ball playing skills. We saw in Origin when Yeo was concussed what impact that had on Cleary’s general play.
While Murray’s influence has gone to another level this year following Adam Reynolds’ departure, with the No.13 now playing link man to Cody Walker on the left edge to ease the pressure on Ilias. For all the focus on Latrell and Cody in recent weeks, Murray is every bit as valuable as Yeo is to the Panthers.
5 A DYNASTY JUST STARTING, OR AN ERA COMING TO AN END?
The Roosters are the only team of the NRL era dating back to 1998 to win back-to-back titles. So we know Penrith’s dominance won’t last forever as they prepare to lose more players with Api Koroisau and Kikau moving on at season’s end.
As silly as it sounds if the Panthers finish this three-year window with only one premiership you might almost argue they have underachieved given how far ahead of the field they have been for the past two seasons. But they are a mighty team closing in on legendary status and you get the feeling the one thing they won’t do Saturday night is beat themselves.
6 WILL ROOKIE COACH BREAK BENNETT CURSE
No coach has previously taken over from Wayne Bennett and done a better job than Jason Demetriou. He has overcome some pretty big stumbles throughout the year to have them playing with confidence at the right end of the season after back-to-back playoff wins over the Roosters and out-of-sorts Sharks. But this will be Demetriou’s finest performance if they score an upset here because it basically puts him in the box seat to do what Bennett couldn’t. Take the Rabbitohs to a grand final knowing the premiership favourites are out of the equation.
CRAWLEY’S VERDICT
Panthers to win by 4
Man of the match: Nathan Cleary
You can bank on this being a close scoreline given the last two games played between these clubs last season were decided by six and two points, while the Panthers only got them by four in their most recent clash in round 23. I just think the Panthers fitness and freshness up against a Rabbitohs teams nursing a few injuries gets the premiers home.
Cowboys v Eels: Who wins and why
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Paul Crawley analyses where Friday night’s preliminary final will be won and lost
1 WHY JEKYLL AND HYDE EELS HAVE EVERYTHING TO LOSE
Brad Arthur needed to win last weekend to silence his critics about the fact he had never taken a team past week two of the finals. Now it’s about getting to monkey off the club’s back in respect to that premiership drought that stretches back to 1986.
If Parramatta don’t advance to the grand final here they won’t be in a better position to do so next year when they lose the likes of Reed Mahoney, Isaiah Papali’I and Marata Niukore.
We all know that there have been two very different Eels teams throughout the year, but you don’t beat the likes of Penrith and Melbourne twice each in a season unless you are a very, very good footy team. Yet they need to be at their best to beat the Cowboys in front of a sold out home crowd. Cooper Cronk made the point this week he was tipping the Cowboys because they had the second best defence this year and the Eels came it eighth. But again, we don’t call them the Jekyll and Hyde Eels for nothing.
2 IF MOSES DOESN’T AIM UP PARRA WON’T WIN
We’ve said for years Mitchell Moses is probably the NRL’s most naturally gifted halfback, but the big question has always been over his ability to stand up when the blowtorch is directly on him.
Now the biggest moment of Moses’ career so far has arrived _ can the polarising Parramatta No 7 be the man to finally end the curse of Peter Sterling?
This has easily been Moses’ most consistent season, and he is peaking at the right time. But you can bet the Cowboys will do everything to try and get under Moses’ skin and rattle his cage. Don’t forget he has suffered a concussion and some other heavy knocks in recent weeks so he will be wearing a huge target in Townsville. The reality is if Moses doesn’t aim up, Parramatta won’t win.
3 HAVE THE COWBOYS ARRIVED A YEAR TOO EARLY?
The only team of the NRL era to come from further back to make a grand final was the Roosters in 2010 who finished 16th the previous year.
Last year the Cowboys were 15th, now they are one game away from the grand final. It’s just astonishing.
They had 10 games against rival top eight teams this season and came out of it with five wins and five defeats, including a big win in their only game against the Eels back in round 8 to the tune of 35-4.
In their run to the finals they went down to the Roosters in round 22, the Rabbitohs in round 24, but had a confidence boosting 38-8 win over what was basically a reserve grade Panthers line up in the final round.
They were strong coming from behind and beat the Sharks in week one, but we all saw what Souths did to Cronulla following that. I just worry if the Cowboys have arrived at this point a year too early.
4 WHO WINS THE BATTLE OF THE HEAVYWEIGHTS?
The Eels big bookends Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard were enormous building the platform for last week’s smash up of the Raiders.
But this is where the Cowboys need to not only match them but over power them with Jason Taumalolo and Reuben Cotter leading the charge. Cotter showed in his Origin debut this year what he can bring to the table in big games with his phenomenal leg speed, in your face aggression and that non-stop motor.
While Taumalolo produced an absolute blinder in the finals win over the Sharks, running for 253m and capping it off with the try to send the match into extra time. It was up with his best ever performances in a Cowboys jumper. Now he needs to back it up against a powerful Parramatta pack. You don’t stand a chance in big games unless you win the battle up front.
5 CAN NRL’S MOST UNDERRATED SPINE BRING DOWN EELS’ BIG SHOTS?
If you ranked all the NRL spines at the start of the year the Cowboys quartet would have been buried down near the bottom of the pile and Parramatta’s right up near the top. But Scott Drinkwater, Tom Dearden, Chad Townsend and Reece Robson have all answered their critics in the best possible way, by letting their footy do the talking.
Robson is close to Origin level now while Drinkwater has emerged as one of the game’s most dangerous attacking weapons, and Dearden and Townsend just do a superb job steadying the ship. They still don’t receive the recognition they deserve as a unit, even though they finished third on the ladder. But that’s often to their opponents determent.
6 ARE PARRA’S OUTSIDE BACKS THE WEAKEST LINK?
If the Cowboys have a standout strength it’s in the outside backs. Kyle Feldt, Val Holmes, Peta Hiku and Murray Taulagi have all had great seasons, and boast as much strike as any centre/wing combinations in the comp. Meanwhile, the Eels’s weakest link appears to be in the outside backs with Maika Sivo and Waqa Blake both coming up with some up and down performances in recent times. This game will be won and lost in other areas, but these blokes will decide by how much.
CRAWLEY’S VERDICT
Eels by 14
Man of the match: Mitchell Moses
Parramatta just has the bigger guns in the most important positions and if the likes of Moses, Clint Gutherson and Dylan Brown play to their potential the Eels will win.
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