NRL Finals 2021: Which contender needs to make the most of their premiership window?

They say there’s always next year - but sometimes there isn’t. Find out the chances of your club taking home the trophy - not just for this year, but for the years to come.

MACKAY, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 18:Nathan Cleary of the Panthers runs the ball during the NRL Semifinal match between the Penrith Panthers and the Parramatta Eels at BB Print Stadium on September 18, 2021 in Mackay, Australia. (Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)

Success isn’t guaranteed in the NRL, and even for the four sides still in contention for the 2021 title, a premiership window can be slammed shut at a moment’s notice.

Circumstances change, players move on, or get old, or sometimes it’s just too hard to recapture the magic of one great season - contrary to the old saying, there isn’t always a next year.

Melbourne have found a way to keep the premiership window jammed open, but for the other clubs, it isn’t so simple. Read on to find out the real chances of your club taking home the trophy - not just for this year, but for the years to come.

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PENRITH PANTHERS

Gains: n/a

Losses: Matt Burton (Bulldogs), Kurt Capewell (Broncos), Brent Naden (Bulldogs), Tevita Pangai Jnr (Bulldogs)

Premiership odds for 2022: $6

After almost two seasons as one of the NRL’s superpowers, Penrith are paying the price for their success - they have re-signed most of their young stars, and there’s only so much money and so many minutes to go around. Losing Burton, Naden, Capewell after this season, and potentially Viliame Kikau after next year, will knock Ivan Cleary’s side down a peg, but as long as they keep their core of Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai, James Fisher-Harris and Isaah Yeo together they can still fill in the gaps.

Penrith still have an exciting young core. Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images.

Key man: Nathan Cleary

For all the attacking brilliance Luai, Kikau, Brain To’o and Stephen Crichton bring, Penrith are built on the power and yardage of their forwards, their iron-clad defence and Nathan Cleary’s kicking game. One can always find more forward power, or teach players to be better tacklers, but Cleary’s kicking, game managing and organisational skills are qualities some teams spend decades looking for. He’s the difference between them being a very good team and a great one.

Cleary makes the difference for Penrith. Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images.

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Gains: Anthony Milford (Broncos), Michael Chee Kam (Tigers) Jason Demetriou (coach)

Losses: Wayne Bennett (coach), Adam Reynolds (Broncos), Dane Gagai (Knights), Jaydn Su’A (Dragons), Joshua Cook (Bulldogs)

Premiership odds for 2022: $8

After three straight preliminary finals losses, South Sydney face the very real chance of their premiership window narrowing next season. Jason Demetriou is as highly-rated an assistant as there is in the NRL and Lachlan Ilias seems a fine prospect as a halfback, but they are not Wayne Bennett and Adam Reynolds. Asking a rookie coach and rookie playmaker to keep the team running along - or improve - is a tall order indeed, especially when you add the loss of Origin players Dane Gagai and Jaydn Su’A and the possible retirement of Benji Marshall. This might be their last chance at title for at least a couple of years.

Souths will miss Adam Reynolds very badly. Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images.

Key man: Cody Walker

With Reynolds leaving, the onus will fall on Damien Cook, Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker to help ease Ilias’ transition into first grade, and it’s South Sydney’s star five-eighth who will bear the bulk of that burden. Walker is one of the most dynamic and creative playmakers in the league, but he’s played his entire NRL career alongside Reynolds. The question for 2022 is can he still produce like he does while taking on a greater share of the organising responsibilities? Mitchell and Ilias will be around for many years yet but Walker, who turns 32 in January, must make hay while the sun shines.

Walker is South Sydney’s key man. Picture by NRL Photos.

MELBOURNE STORM

Gains: Xavier Coates (Broncos), Nick Meaney (Bulldogs), Josh King (Knights)

Losing: Dale Finucane (Sharks), Nicho Hynes (Sharks), Josh Addo-Carr (Bulldogs), Aaron Booth (Titans), Aaron Pene (Warriors), Brenko Lee (Broncos)

Premiership odds for 2022: $5.50

Here’s everything you need to know about the Melbourne Storm’s premiership window - over the last four years they’ve lost Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith and have not dropped out of the title picture for a second. For most clubs, losing one player of that calibre (let alone three) would be a blow they might take decades from which to recover. But instead the Storm just keep winning. It’s all they know how to do, and even if they go back-to-back this season, or if they lost a few more players to rival clubs, there’s no sign of the Victorian winning machine slowing down.

Can anything slow down the Storm? Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images.

Key man: Craig Bellamy

Bellamy has flirted with retirement before, but re-signed a five-year deal with the Storm earlier this year. There was a catch - the 61-year old can pull the pin on a full-time role and transition into a director of coaching position whenever he likes. He’s earned the right to decide his own fate a dozen times over and the Storm will be premiership contenders for as long as Bellamy sticks around.

The Storm window won’t shut so long as Bellamy sticks around.

MANLY SEA EAGLES

Gains: n/a

Losses: Curtis Sironen (St Helens)

Premiership odds for 2022: $7

Manly find themselves in a curious position - Tom Trbojevic is entering the prime of his career and the club has players who are just getting started like Jason Saab and Haumole Olakau’atu. But there’s also a heavy veteran presence in the likes of Daly Cherry-Evans (32), Kieran Foran and Martin Taupau (both 31). Continuing to keep the roster fresh while surrounding Trbojevic with enough elite talent to make the most of his best years will be the challenge for Des Hasler. Curtis Sironen is the only confirmed departure for next season but Moses Suli, Jorge Taufua and Tevita Funa are all expected to follow him.

The time is now for Manly. Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images.

Key man: Tom Trbojevic

Trbojevic was one of the best players in the league before the new rules were introduced, now he’s in another universe to just about everyone else. The kind of numbers he’s been putting up (like 25 tries in 15 games) are surely not sustainable long-term as the rest of the league either adapts to the new landscape of the game or the changes are rolled back. Trbojevic will have plenty of good seasons in the future, but it’s doubtful he ever has one like this again, which makes Manly’s need to capitalise on his form all the more urgent.