NRL Finals 2020: Matty Johns predicts every winner from finals week 1
No doubt about it, the Roosters can bounce back and topple Penrith tonight. But the absence of a key contributor (not named Sonny Bill) is going to make it much more harder, says MATTY JOHNS.
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PANTHERS v ROOSTERS
BEWARE THE REBOUND
This is the most intriguing game of week one.
Full-time last week couldn’t have been more different for these two teams.
The young Panthers were beaming after their cakewalk victory and draped themselves around and over the JJ Giltinan Shield in celebration of their minor premiership.
The experienced Roosters were shocked and embarrassed as they hurried off ANZ Stadium.
No one saw that loss coming. Nobody.
This is the biggest test yet for the young Penrith players; to mentally let the success of the regular season go and recalibrate for this new challenge.
I fully expect the Roosters to be toward their best on Friday night.
The Panthers need to be ready because their tough, experienced opposition will really come for them.
The Roosters will be motivated by last week, and also by the fact that they are viewed as the underdogs.
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CENTREFIELD BATTLE
This is where big games are won.
The young Penrith pack collectively and individually has taken huge steps forward and its battle with the Roosters’ middle men will decide the contest.
If the Panthers win the yardage game, Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai and Api Koroisau will use the space to shred the Roosters’ middle defence with speed and Cleary’s clever double-drop plays.
If the Roosters’ big men dominate, Luke Keary and James Tedesco will burn the Penrith forwards out of gas with their relentlessness.
Cleary’s kicking versus Tedesco’s clean-up work and kick returns will be crucial.
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WHO WINS?
Very, very tight. However, the loss of Jake Friend inches me toward Penrith. That and the home-ground advantage.
Playing on familiar surface, a ground where the playmakers can feel the dimensions, makes a distinct difference.
I don’t discount the Roosters, but I can’t ignore the difference in energy from both sides last week.
RAIDERS v SHARKS
PRESS REPEAT?
The Raiders took care of Cronulla last week without their stars while travelling on the road.
The Sharks were also without some key players but expected to beat the young Raiders.
Canberra welcomes back its full attacking arsenal, while Cronulla’s most important attacking weapon, Shaun Johnson, is sitting in the stands with a ruptured Achilles.
GOOD START THE KEY
Elimination finals really test a team’s nerve.
The Sharks have shown over the years that they can pull off an upset seemingly out of the blue.
And while the Raiders’ past month indicates they are ready to peak, and the Sharks look to be limping into this game, it will mean nothing on the night.
If the Raiders start slowly and the Sharks get a sniff, it will get tricky.
WHO WINS?
Cronulla will be far from cannon fodder but form, confidence and creative quality point to nothing but a Canberra victory.
STORM v EELS
STORM WARNING
The Eels had better be at their best, or close to it, or things could get pretty ugly.
The Storm love playing the Eels, and they love playing on the dryer surface at Suncorp Stadium.
While Parramatta battled hard to beat the Tigers, Melbourne’s stars put their feet up and freshened.
The Storm will explode out of the blocks and if the Eels don’t match their energy, the game could be taken away from them well before halftime.
IT’S ALL ABOUT STYLES
One advantage the Storm have is an established style which they implement in these big matches.
They play tight, fast football right through the middle field, which puts opposition forwards under enormous stress.
The result is two-fold. It creates direct momentum, which means fast play-the-balls and vulnerable defenders.
When done successfully it saps the energy of the opposition’s middle players. The fatigue makes them liabilities in defence and takes away their yardage capabilities.
Cameron Smith will be the focal point of this tactic, while Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes will combine with Smith to unleash Ryan Papenhuyzen.
The Eels tend to put themselves under pressure against the Storm by playing too sideways.
Parramatta won’t finesse its way to victory. It needs to dominate the middle with power running and challenge Melbourne’s men with short passing and fast feet.
One surprising flaw in Melbourne’s game has been its defence but Parramatta won’t win this one trying to go around the Storm.
WHO WINS?
I can’t see anything but a Melbourne victory.
Parramatta’s end-of-season form hasn’t been impressive enough to win this.
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RABBITOHS v KNIGHTS
FORM
What a contrast.
The Rabbitohs have been labelled inconsistent in the past month, and I get that.
They have put in two ordinary performances recently — a narrow win over the Tigers and a shock loss to the Dogs.
In both those games the Bunnies were asleep for long periods. In the Tigers match it was the final 30 minutes, while against the Dogs it was the first 30.
But if we look at the broader picture, their form in the entire back half of the season has been superb, capped off with a historic demolition of the Roosters.
The Knights really have been inconsistent.
They have had solid wins in the past month, against the Dragons and Sharks, mixed together with some big losses to the Warriors, Roosters and the Titans last week.
When these two teams met in round 10, the Knights won 20-18. However, from that point the Rabbitohs have clicked into gear, while the Knights have stuttered.
THE STYLE OF THE FIGHT
This is crucial.
When the Rabbitohs win the yardage battle they are unstoppable because no team scores as rapidly.
In an open, fast-moving contest, Cody Walker is the competition’s best player.
So the Knights have to find a way to make this game as dour as possible. The only problem is, they also like a fast, open game.
The Knights in the back half of the season have been vulnerable to teams which make it a power contest.
To have a chance, the Knights need to slow the contest in transition. That means playing fast in possession but slowing the tempo as much as possible after handing the ball over.
The easiest way to do this is to find touch on kicks or kick high and smother the fullback on reception, so as not to allow early momentum.
So Mitchell Pearce needs to turn around what’s been a difficult past month for himself and put together an A+ performance.
WHO WINS?
It’s a clash between the team that smashed the defending premiers last week or the one smashed by the Titans?
I say Souths.