NRL deep dive: Why Parramatta Eels’ State of Origin period will make or break their season

Parramatta went within 80 minutes of ending their near four-decade premiership drought - only to have it blow up in their faces this year. PAUL CRAWLEY pin-points where it went wrong.

The Parramatta Eels are struggling. NRL Imagery

The State of Origin period is usually a time of the season that the powerful NRL clubs dread most.

But in the case of Brad Arthur’s Parramatta Eels, the next seven games presents a window of opportunity that will make or break their season.

With last year’s grand finalists floundering in 14th spot on the NRL ladder, and many fans fearing their season is already doomed, these are the key issues that could make or break the Eels in 2023.

1. ORIGIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TAKES A HIT

The Eels’ hopes of saving their season suffered a significant blow on Monday when it was confirmed back-rower Shaun Lane could miss up two months with a hamstring injury suffered against Canberra on Saturday.

Andrew Davey, Bryce Cartwright, Matt Doorey and Jack Murchie are all in the running to replace Lane for Parramatta’s clash with South Sydney on Friday night before they launch into the Origin period.

Injured Eels back-rower Shaun Lane.

The representative window presents a great opportunity for Arthur’s team because, instead of the nucleus of their side being ripped apart like some of the top clubs, Parramatta’s only likely Origin player is Junior Paulo.

And they have six very winnable games, on paper, following Friday’s clash with the table-topping Rabbitohs.

The Eels face the Cowboys (without their Origin stars), then have a bye, followed by the Bulldogs, Sea Eagles (again without Origin players), the Dolphins, another bye, the Warriors and Titans.

Given they are on just eight competition points, a loss to the Bunnies would likely leave them six points outside the top eight, eight points adrift of the top four.

Complicating matters is their incredibly tough run home, with their final six games against the Cowboys, Storm, Dragons, Broncos, Roosters and Panthers, plus a final-round bye.

2. STILL HUNTING FOR X-FACTOR

The Eels still have two spots to fill in their 30-man roster and, importantly, have money in the cap to spend, preferably on an outside back.

When it was revealed Parramatta had their eye on Titans excitement machine Jayden Campbell — who has since re-signed with the Titans — as the potential X-factor to take over the fullback role, there was understandable disbelief among some sections that they would even consider potentially shifting their inspirational skipper Clint Gutherson.

Captain and talisman, Clint Gutherson.

But it’s believed the Eels and Gutherson are privately concerned about how much longer he can continue to deliver the high-intensity 80-minute efforts for which he has become famous. A potential move to the centres could extend his career.

Watch for the Eels to wait and see if some clubs drop out of finals contention, who may be willing to release players before the signing deadline, similar to what Penrith did with Tevita Pangai Jr in 2021 and the Roosters did with Matt Lodge last year.

That would allow Parramatta to strengthen their roster and rivals the chance to offload a player and front-end other deals to make cap space for next year.

Another positive is that tough prop Reagan Campbell-Gillard is confident he’ll be back from his groin injury well before the scheduled round 17, although others within the club don’t share his confidence.

3. DISCIPLINE IS KILLING THEM

Parramatta are conceding the fourth-most penalties of all teams (5.3 per game), and are 16th in penalties awarded (4.7).

Sin bins are proving costly.

In round 6 against the Roosters they played 20 of the first 40 minutes with 12 players after Will Penisini and Bailey Simonsson were both binned on separate occasions.

The Eels went into half-time down 16-2 and could never get back in the game, going down 28-20.

Junior Paulo is sent to the sin bin against Penrith. Picture: NRL Photos

Against the Titans in round 10, Gutherson was sin binned in the seventh minute with the Eels leading 4-0. By the time the fullback returned the Eels were down 10-4, eventually losing 26-24.

Then, last round against the Raiders, they were on the wrong end of a 10-3 penalty count and were lucky not to have two played sin binned (Paulo for a cannonball and Simonsson for a hip drop).

4. PAYING FOR RETENTION BLUNDERS

There are already calls for Arthur to promote young hooker Brendan Hands into the starting side ahead of Josh Hodgson, who is yet to fire as Reed Mahoney’s replacement.

There is no doubting the Eels severely underestimated how huge the loss of Mahoney would be, and they should have found more space in the salary cap to keep him.

The loss of Isaiah Papali’I, Marata Niukore, Oregon Kaufusi and Ray Stone were all significant, but none hurt more than Mahoney’s departure to the Bulldogs.

Is it time to promote hooker Brendan Hands?

Hands, 23, is locked in until 2025 and has shown enough in a handful of NRL games that he can help Parramatta’s predicament.

5. MATTO’S ‘UNFORGIVEABLE’ $4000 SIDESTEP

Ryan Matterson’s infamous decision to serve a three-match ban instead of opting for a $4000 fine rates right up with the most unforgivable and one that immediately put them on the back foot to start the season.

The Eels lost their first three games against the Storm, Sharks and Sea Eagles all by four points. Having Matterson on deck, particularly given Lane broke his jaw in the trials, would have been a much-needed boost, instead of Parramatta having one of their highest-paid forwards sitting in the stands, pocketing the best part of $40,000 in wages.

6. CAN ARTHUR WIN A PREMIERSHIP?

Arthur has succeeded from taking the Eels from wooden spooners to consistent finalists in his nine seasons in charge. But keeping the premiership window is now the challenge. Aside from last year’s grand final appearance, the club had not made it past week two of the finals under Arthur. And if they don’t go deep into the play-offs this year those same questions about whether he is the coach who can ultimately end the now 36-year premiership drought will come up again.

Can coach Brad Arthur take the Eels all the way?

7. WEIGHT OF HISTORY

Not only are the Eels burdened by the weight of their own history, but right now they also have another grim statistic staring them in the face.

Because Fox Sports Lab stats show that their current position of only four wins through 11 rounds is just about knockout stage when it comes to their top-four hopes.

Only one team in the NRL era has made the top four previously from the same position (Warriors in 2007). Plenty of others have still played finals, and the Eels actually made the grand final in 2009 from a worse position.

That season they had three wins and a draw at this point before eventually finishing seventh on their way to the big dance.

Furthermore, their record against the Rabbitohs in recent seasons has been dreadful, not beating the Bunnies since 2019 with a tally of six straight losses and some embarrassing scorelines.

In their most recent clash in round 22 last year they were beaten 26-0, while they went down 30-12 in round 16.