NRL 2023: Broncos, Bulldogs among teams tipped to rise from the cellar to the penthouse

As the 2023 NRL season fast approaches, we reveal the surprising trend that defies rugby league logic and has betting companies scrambling for the calculator.

The big movers in 2023.

Cameron Ciraldo’s Bulldogs have emerged as the ultimate underdogs to go from the rugby league kennel to the penthouse in 2023, while the Brisbane Broncos are also winning plenty of support to fight back and finally rejoin the competition heavyweights after this year’s shocking collapse.

It comes as we also reveal a stunning statistic that almost defies rugby league logic, showing how since 1999 at least one team every year has catapulted from outside the NRL top eight into the four, with the only three exceptions being 2002, 2004 and 2015.

And with history, a massive recruitment drive and the signing of the game’s most in-demand young coach, the TAB has now installed Canterbury as the second most likely team behind the well backed Broncos to come from outside the top eight and finish top four next season.

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Can new Canterbury coach Cameron Ciraldo return the Bulldogs to their glory days? Picture: Justin Lloyd

PROOF IT CAN BE DONE

It might look a long shot on paper, but it’s worth noting the Bulldogs also hold the record for going from finishing outside the play-offs into the four in the space of a season. They have actually done it on five previous occasions - in 2001, 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2012.

On top of that the Panthers have done it four times, the Raiders, Roosters and Sharks three times each, the Cowboys, Eels and Rabbitohs twice, while six teams have done it once including the Broncos, Knights, Sea Eagles, Tigers, Titans and Warriors.

So instead of it being viewed as a freak occurrence, it has actually become the norm.

On six occasions teams have also made it all the way to the grand final after missing the finals the previous year, with three premiers including the Panthers who came from 12th in 2003, the Tigers from ninth to win it in 2005 and the Roosters who went from 13th to 2013 champions.

Sonny Bill Williams celebrates the Roosters’ 2013 premiership. The Chooks finished 13th the year before. Pic: Gregg Porteous.

OVERCOMING THE ODDS

The TAB has listed the Broncos at the shortest odds to bounce back from their dreadful late season capitulation, at $3.50 to go from ninth into the top four.

Next is Ciraldo’s Dogs at $5 after finishing 12th.

Even allowing for Ciraldo’s arrival as well as the recruitment of Viliame Kikau and Reed Mahoney, it is still surprising the Dogs are shorter odds than the Sea Eagles at $5.50 to rebound under new coach Anthony Seibold from 11th.

Obviously a lot will depend on Tom Trbojevic’s fitness following his recent hamstring injury that will wipe him out for the majority of the pre-season.

Fox Sports Stats show the Sea Eagles have only won 33 per cent of their games when Turbo was not playing since 2019.

The Dragons are next in betting to make the jump from outside the eight into the four at $12, followed by the Titans and Tigers at $13, the Knights at $15 and Warriors at $17.

The Broncos are expected to be big improvers in 2023. Picture Lachie Millard

NRL newcomers the Dolphins are rank outsiders at $19 to finish top four in their first season.

Overall, the TAB has the Panthers the shortest price in this market at $1.50 ahead of the Roosters $1.60, the Storm $1.70, the Cowboys $2.40, the Sharks $2.50, the Rabbitohs $2.75 and Eels $3, while the Raiders at $6.50 are listed behind the Dogs and Sea Eagles.

“The Bulldogs are well backed to make the four at that price after adding Mahoney and Kikau, while there has certainly been an increase in positivity around the Tigers with their forward pack being beefed up by some key recruits,” said the TAB’s Rohan Welsh.

“Even Manly with all their dramas have attracted some attention.

“There has been no love at all from TAB punters for the Warriors and Titans to make the top four and little interest in the Dragons and Newcastle.”

DOGS’ REVIVAL LONG OVERDUE

It seems so long ago now, but it’s worth remembering this time last year there was also great hope at Belmore on the back of another much hyped recruitment drive under Trent Barrett.

With the addition of Josh Addo-Carr and Matt Burton, big things were expected of the Dogs in 2022.

But it sadly fell apart pretty quickly once the season started, and after winning only two of their opening 10 games came Barrett’s shock departure.

Plenty is again expected from the Bulldogs’ dynamic duo Josh Addo-Carr and Matt Burton. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Mick Potter was then rushed in and finished the season with five wins from 14 games.

Overall, Barrett won just five of 34 games in charge at Canterbury, for a 14.7 winning percentage.

That came after Dean Pay was axed for winning 33.3 per cent of his 57 games (19 wins), while Hasler took the Dogs to two grand finals and won 56.8 per cent of his 155 games (88 wins).

The Bulldogs have now missed the finals six straight seasons since 2016.

But even though Ciraldo has no head coaching experience, he arrives with an outstanding CV, having had success all the way through the Panthers junior rep system up to his assistant roles under Ivan Cleary.

And following Craig Fitzgibbon’s remarkable rookie season at Cronulla, many believe Ciraldo will join the likes of Fitzy and Todd Payten as part of the new-look coaching revolution for years to come.

Craig Fitzgibbon helped lift Cronulla into the top four in his first season at the Sharks. Picture: Getty

The Broncos are also desperate for a change in fortunes with the former powerhouse hoping to make it back to the play offs for the first time since 2019.

For a good while this year they looked top four bound, which only made their demise tougher to digest.

Walters has won 20 of 48 games in charge at Brisbane for a 41.7 winning percentage.

ROOSTERS, PANTHERS, BRONCOS ALL IN DEMAND

Welsh said there had also been “a surge in money” for Trent Robinson’s Roosters in premiership betting following their horrendous run of injuries in recent years.

“This includes the equal biggest bet taken so far of the off-season of $6000 at $6.50 as well as multiple $1000 bets at $7,” Welsh added.

“Penrith are still best backed however, after strong money in the 48 hours following the GF, including a $6000 outlay at $4, while the Storm have also been trimmed from $9 into $7.50.”

Meanwhile, there is even plenty of love for the Broncos to go all the way.

“The Broncos have been well supported and have shortened from $21 into $15 and are the sixth best backed to win the title now, headlined by a $3800 outlay to win the premiership at $21,” Welsh said.

“The Dolphins continue to track well at the long odds of $67 with around 3 per cent of investments, while Manly have shortened from $29 into $23 since the turmoil surrounding Des Hasler’s axing and Anthony Seibold’s instalment at Brookvale.

“The Warriors are the worst backed to win the premiership, with Gold Coast and Newcastle rivalling each other as to who is second worst and the Dragons struggling for support from TAB punters too.”