NRL 2022: Canberra Raiders season preview, roster analysis, predicted finish, round 1 best 17
The Raiders’ struggles in 2021 can be summed up by one number - 7. The recruitment of Jamal Fogarty should go a long way to making sure halfback again becomes a strength.
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It was a brutal fall from grace for Ricky Stuart’s side after the excellence of 2019 and 2020.
They not only missed the finals for the first time in three seasons but were also embroiled in their fair share of controversy, while key contributors - Josh Papalii’i and Jack Wighton chief among them - failed to fire and the manner in which they lost some games was deeply concerning.
But they do have undeniable quality and armed with a new halfback in Jamal Fogarty and a fresh outlook, the Raiders bear close watching in 2022. Nick Campton takes a deep dive into what to expect from Canberra.
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FINISH THE LAST FIVE YEARS
2021: 10th
2020: 4th
2019: Runners-up
2018: 10th
2017: 10th
ODDS (TAB premiership, top four, tope eight, most losses)
Premiership: $19
Top four: $6
Top eight: $2.10
Most losses: $21
2022 SQUAD
Jarrod Croker, Adam Elliott, Jamal Fogarty, Matt Frawley, Emre Guler, Corey Harawira-Naera, Josh Hodgson, Albert Hopoate, Peter Hola, Corey Horsburgh, Sebastian Kris, Trey Mooney, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Josh Papalii’i, Jordan Rapana, Harry Rushton, Xavier Savage, Brad Schneider, Bailey Simonsson, Harley Smith-Shields, Tom Starling, Ryan Sutton, Joe Tapine, Matt Timoko, Semi Valemei, Elliott Whitehead, Jack Wighton, Sam Williams, Hudson Young
INS
Adam Elliott (Bulldogs), Jamal Fogarty (Titans) (below), Peter Hola (Cowboys)
OUTS
Ryan James (Broncos), Saliva Havili (Rabbitohs), Sia Soliola (retired), Caleb Aekins (released), Dunamis Lui (released), Darby Medlyn (released)
2021 RICH LIST -6
92 - Jarrod Croker ($470,000)
76 - Elliott Whitehead ($582,000),
69 - Joseph Tapine ($611,000)
58 - Josh Papalii ($658,000)
44 - Josh Hodgson ($705,000)
26 - Jack Wighton ($846,000)
SQUAD STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths: It took all year, but by the final rounds of 2021 the Raiders had dug up two backline gems in Harley Smith-Shields and Matthew Timoko. Both the youngsters give outstanding yardage, and when combined with Jordan Rapana and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad in the backline and Josh Papalii and Joseph Tapine in the forwards, the Raiders should be able to gain as many metres as they want next season.
Weaknesses: All the yardage in the world never did anybody a lick of good if there wasn’t a spine that could take advantage. Wighton, Fogarty, Josh Hodgson and Nicoll-Klokstad must find a way to gel together and get the balance right in an effort to convert the Green Machine’s power and muscle into points.
COACH STATUS AND SAFETY RATING Safety rating: C
Ricky Stuart is under contract until the end of 2023 and despite Canberra’s underwhelming performance this season, Stuart will be in charge of the Raiders for just about as long as he wants. The coach and the club are inextricably linked and the finals runs of 2019 and 2020 still loom large in the memory. A return to the finals certainly wouldn’t hurt, but the Raiders will have to sink to far lower depths before Stuart’s position comes under question.
WHAT THEY NEED TO TWEAK
When the Raiders have been successful in recent years, it’s come down less to game plans and well-considered play and more to sheer effort, energy, mental toughness and physicality. With the new rules turning rugby league on its head, that just might not be a viable way to play any more. Canberra were hit harder by the expansion of the set-restart rule than any other club, because it played away from their strengths and towards their deficiencies. What Stuart must decide is whether the squad needs a full tactical overhaul or simply a few tweaks.
FREE AGENCY WRAP Rating: B
The Raiders struggled to replace George Williams internally in 2021 – Sam Williams and Matt Frawley are good clubmen, but neither was a long-term option – and the recruitment of Jamal Fogarty is a nice signing. Fogarty is composed, capable of playing to a game-plan and able to slot in on the right edge. He’s also got a nice kicking game and should be able to free up Jack Wighton to play some of his best football. Adam Elliott is on his last chance, but if Canberra can get the best out of him he could prove to be an astute purchase, so long as they play him in the middle. The Raiders have plenty of forward power at their disposal, but they need a passer to free things up and Elliott can do just that.
WHICH PLAYER CAN THEY REINVENT? Corey Horsburgh.
It’s been a tough couple of years for Horsburgh – he missed much of 2020 with a foot injury and struggled for fitness and form last season – but the 23-year old is a top-class NRL prop in the making. Horsburgh has the size and athleticism to make an impact with his running game as well as the passing and offloading skill required of a modern middle. So long as he has a big pre-season, cracking the Queensland Origin side is well within his capabilities next year, and given Josh Papalii’i and Joseph Tapine could be sidelined for several key days due to their refusal to be vaccinated, the Raiders will need the likes of Horsburgh to step up.
WILL DEVELOPMENT CONTRACT UPGRADED KIDS MAKE AN IMPACT?
If everyone’s fit, Xavier Savage might not start the season in first grade, but if his brief NRL showings last year were anything to go by, that’s certainly where he’ll end up. Blessed with an incredible turn of speed, Savage has the potential to be the kind of attacking weapon who can go the length of the field with just an inch or two of space. There’s nothing wrong with the fullback/winger spending some time in NSW Cup learning his trade, but he’s one to keep an eye on.
WHO TAKES THE NEXT STEP?Hudson Young
Young was dropped midway through 2021, but once he returned to first grade he showed why he’s so highly rated by those in the know with some excellent performances on the left edge. Capable of playing edge and middle and with a strong attacking workrate an a good offload, Young is another player for whom higher honours could beckon before long.
IT’S A BIG YEAR FORJack Wighton
After a Clive Churchill Medal in 2019 and a Dally M Medal in 2020, all 2021 held for Jack Wighton was inconsistency. As the Raiders season fell apart around them, Wighton struggled to turn the tide and showed little of the football that earned him such praise in recent years. Were it not for the club’s struggles, a stint in reserve grade might have been on the cards. Wighton is about to begin his tenth season in first grade and is Canberra’s biggest name – he needs to play like it more often.
HOW THEY’LL GO IN 2022 AND WHY? 8th
Despite everything that went wrong in 2021, the Raiders were still in position to make the eight had they won their final round game against the Roosters. They’ve settled on a better back five and found a good halfback in free agency – so long as their best players stay on the field and Wighton rediscovers some of his mojo, there’s no reason they can’t make the finals.
CAPTAINCY CONTENDERS - Jarrod Croker, Elliott Whitehead, Josh Hodgson
Jarrod Croker is still the best captaincy option, but his position in the side came under threat this season and the veteran needs a big summer if he’s to solidify his place in the top 17. Hodgson gave up the armband midway through the year with Whitehead taking over and, while the backrower’s effort and intensity can’t be question, he needs to cool his jets if he’s going to be an effective on-field leader, especially when it comes to captain’s challenges, which he often throws away rashly.
FOX SPORTS LAB’S AARON WALLACE SAYS
The Raiders finished in equal eighth with the Titans and Sharks on 22 points — but with a much inferior points differential. What will haunt them in the off-season is they lost seven games in 2021 after leading by double figures and three when leading by 16 points or more — had they won just one they would have played finals and had they won all seven they could have finished fourth. Injuries and unavailability of key players certainly made it a disrupted season for the Green Machine. They used 13 different spine combinations, and their longest stretch of the same combination was five games in the first five rounds.
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